Euro 2024: Penalty shootouts set to take center stage as psychology and new tactics come into play

DORTMUND, Germany (AP) — Here’s a quiz question: What do the 2022 World Cup final, the 2021 African Cup of Nations final, the 2020 European Championship final and the 2016 Copa America final have in common?

Answer: They were all settled by a penalty shootout.

Like it or not, the shootout — that tense battle of wills over 12 yards (11 meters) — has increasingly become a huge part of soccer, an unavoidable feature of the knockout stage in the biggest competitions.

Added to the laws of the game in 1970, penalty shootouts have marred careers (Roberto Baggio has never gotten over his miss in the 1994 World Cup final), spawned pizza adverts (Gareth Southgate starred in one after his decisive failure from the spot at Euro 1996) and, in Lionel Messi’s case at the most recent World Cup, earned a win that definitively secures a player a place in the pantheon of soccer greats.

It’s why those who delve into the psychology and science of soccer are perplexed why this tiebreaker system has been — and continues to be — overlooked by many teams, especially in these data-driven times.

“There are so many things you can do to prepare your team for penalties, to train them for penalties, to help your players and team cope with the pressure of penalties,” says Geir Jordet, professor at the Norwegian School of Sport Sciences and author of the recently published book, “Pressure: Lessons from the Psychology of the Penalty Shootout.”

“You can do this as an individual, as a team, as a manager,” he said.

The theory that penalty shootouts are a “lottery” is well worn and oft-repeated, with recently departed Chelsea manager Mauricio Pochettino saying just that in December after winning a cup game.

Johan Cruyff, the late Dutch maestro, gave short shrift to the idea that teams can prepare for spot kicks.

“Taking penalties in training is useless,” he said in 2000. “The penalty is a unique skill outside of football.”

Cruyff subscribed to the philosophy that a player can never simulate the pressure of a penalty shootout — that initial wait in the center circle, that long walk to the penalty spot, those few seconds face-to-face with the goalkeeper — on the training field.

Just this year, France coach Didier Deschamps railed against an attempt by the French Football Federation to come up with an initiative to improve the team’s performance in shootouts. France lost in them in the last 16 at Euro 2020 and in the 2022 World Cup final against Argentina.

“I’m convinced — and my past as a player gives me this information — that it’s impossible,” Deschamps said, “to recreate a situation, on a psychological level, between training and a match.”

Jordet acknowledged that, but said it’s “absurd” to not try to simulate these pressure situations in training.

“There are studies showing that training with mild anxiety will prepare you and help you perform better under conditions of high anxiety,” he said, before looking at other professions and areas of work.

“If you look at military training — in peacetime, which is what we’re used to, should they train for war activities and the pressure and stress of being in a conflict, or should they just sit back and say we cannot simulate the pressure and the stress of being in an active firefight? That’s absurd. It’s the same case with pilots or if you look at surgeons or ER doctors.”

Jordet has looked specifically at penalty shootouts at the last World Cup and how coaches managed the two minutes they had with their players between extra time finishing and the shootout starting. He noted the winning teams, “without exception,” were those whose coaches took the shortest time giving their instructions.

In the final, Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni’s nomination process took 15 seconds, Jordet said, because his team was prepared.

“Deschamps,” Jordet added, “spent almost 20 seconds considering who should take the shot for each of his penalty takers, looking around, showing basically how little clarity he had about what to do. It was probably something his players would pick up on as well.”

EUROS HISTORY

There have been 22 shootouts at the Euros, including four in 1996 and 2020. Of the 232 shots taken in the shootouts, 178 were successful — a 76.7% success rate. That fits the data models which typically say the expected success of a penalty is 0.76 (that is, 76 out of 100 penalties would typically be scored).

GO FIRST OR SECOND?

So much for the widely held perception that the team going second in a shootout is at a disadvantage for being under extra pressure. The latest major study of penalties, covering men's competitions in European soccer over the last 11 years, showed the winning percentage of the team shooting first in penalty kicks was 48.83. Jordet said the advantage has “progressively and dramatically shrunk” compared to older research, some of which said there was around a 60% chance of the team going first winning.

TEAM ORDERS

That same study showed the first kick is scored in shootouts more often than any other (nearly 84%) and is typically delivered by the most reliable penalty taker. Messi and Kylian Mbappé took the first two kicks in the World Cup final shootout, for example. The likelihood of success by a team's second taker dips to as low as around 72%, the study says, while the fifth kicker of the team shooting second hasn't gotten to take a penalty in 43.26% of shootouts. Placing your best taker at No. 5 in the list is dangerous, then — just ask Cristiano Ronaldo, who never got to take a penalty when Portugal lost a shootout to Spain in the Euro 2012 semifinals, and Mohamed Salah, who was left stranded as his Egypt team lost the African Cup of Nations final in 2021.

TACTICS

Watch out for gamesmanship around shootouts or regular penalties. Opponents have been seen attempting to scuff the turf around the spot in hopes of causing the taker to slip. That has led on some occasions to players from the team awarded the penalty gathering around the spot to protect the turf. Another recent phenomenon is one player holding onto the ball near the spot when a penalty has been awarded and then passing it, at the last minute, to the teammate taking the kick. “It’s about making the individual act of shooting a penalty into a collective team performance,” Jordet said. There also have been numerous examples of back-up goalkeepers or outfield players being brought on as a substitute late in extra time because they have a better record in penalties than the regular starter. See Netherlands goalkeeper Tim Krul at the 2014 World Cup and Australia goalkeeper Andrew Redmayne in qualifying for the 2022 World Cup.

NEW TECHNIQUE

There’s a new dominant penalty technique — and it’s not for the faint-hearted. It involves the taker approaching the ball and waiting for the goalkeeper to make the first move. What invariably becomes a stutter-step routine has been called the “goalkeeper-dependent technique” by experts like Jordet. “It’s very sophisticated and hard to perform when the pressure’s truly on,” he said. “If you’re competent at executing this technique, this will effectively delete the risk factor of the goalkeeper going in the right direction and your odds suddenly going down.” Poland captain Robert Lewandowski has been using it since 2016 — and used it against France on Tuesday — and Harry Kane is a recent adopter.

PROVEN PEDIGREE

History suggests Germany might be the best penalty-taking team in Europe, having won all six of its shootouts since losing the European Championship’s first to Czechoslovakia in the 1976 final. Conversely, there’s England, which has had so many penalty heartaches down the years — not least in the last Euro final — in its 2-7 overall record. The Netherlands (2-6) hasn’t fared much better.

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FILE - Senegal's Sadio Mane, top left, and teammates celebrate after scoring the winning penalty at the end of the African Cup of Nations 2022 final soccer match between Senegal and Egypt at the Ahmadou Ahidjo stadium in Yaounde, Cameroon, Sunday, Feb. 6, 2022. The penalty shootout is a tense battle of wills over 12 yards (11 meters) that has increasingly become a huge part of soccer and an unavoidable feature of the knockout stage in the biggest competitions. (AP Photo/Themba Hadebe, File)

FILE -Egyptian players react after the African Cup of Nations 2022 final soccer match between Senegal and Egypt at the Ahmadou Ahidjo stadium in Yaounde, Cameroon, Sunday, Feb. 6, 2022. The penalty shootout is a tense battle of wills over 12 yards (11 meters) that has increasingly become a huge part of soccer and an unavoidable feature of the knockout stage in the biggest competitions. (AP Photo/Sunday Alamba, File)

England's Bukayo Saka, center, is comforted after he missed to score the last penalty during the penalty shootout of the Euro 2020 soccer championship final between England and Italy at Wembley stadium in London, Sunday, July 11, 2021. The penalty shootout is a tense battle of wills over 12 yards (11 meters) that has increasingly become a huge part of soccer and an unavoidable feature of the knockout stage in the biggest competitions. (AP Photo/Frank Augstein, Pool, File)

FILE -England's goalkeeper Jordan Pickford saves a penalty shot y Italy's Andrea Belotti during the penalty shootout during the Euro 2020 soccer final match between England and Italy at Wembley stadium in London, Sunday, July 11, 2021. The penalty shootout is a tense battle of wills over 12 yards (11 meters) that has increasingly become a huge part of soccer and an unavoidable feature of the knockout stage in the biggest competitions. (Andy Rain/Pool Photo via AP, File)

FILE - Argentinian players celebrate after winning penalty shootout during the World Cup final soccer match between Argentina and France at the Lusail Stadium in Lusail, Qatar, Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022. The penalty shootout is a tense battle of wills over 12 yards (11 meters) that has increasingly become a huge part of soccer and an unavoidable feature of the knockout stage in the biggest competitions. (AP Photo/Petr David Josek, File)

FILE - Argentina's head coach Lionel Scaloni motivates his players in extra time of the World Cup final soccer match between Argentina and France at the Lusail Stadium in Lusail, Qatar, Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022. The penalty shootout is a tense battle of wills over 12 yards (11 meters) that has increasingly become a huge part of soccer and an unavoidable feature of the knockout stage in the biggest competitions. (AP Photo/Thanassis Stavrakis, File)

FILE - France's head coach Didier Deschamps talks with players before the start of the extra time during the World Cup final soccer match between Argentina and France at the Lusail Stadium in Lusail, Qatar, Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022. The penalty shootout is a tense battle of wills over 12 yards (11 meters) that has increasingly become a huge part of soccer and an unavoidable feature of the knockout stage in the biggest competitions. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar, File)

FILE - In this Sunday, June 26, 2016 photo, Argentina's Lionel Messi reacts to losing 4-2 to Chile in penalty kicks during the Copa America Centenario championship soccer match, in East Rutherford, N.J. The penalty shootout is a tense battle of wills over 12 yards (11 meters) that has increasingly become a huge part of soccer and an unavoidable feature of the knockout stage in the biggest competitions. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File)

FILE - Argentina's Lionel Messi misses his shot during penalty kicks in the Copa America Centenario championship soccer match, Sunday, June 26, 2016, in East Rutherford, N.J. Chile defeated Argentina 4-2- in penalty kicks. The penalty shootout is a tense battle of wills over 12 yards (11 meters) that has increasingly become a huge part of soccer and an unavoidable feature of the knockout stage in the biggest competitions. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File)

FILE -Poland's Robert Lewandowski retakes his penalty kick to score during a Group D match between the France and Poland at the Euro 2024 soccer tournament in Dortmund, Germany, Tuesday, June 25, 2024. The penalty shootout is a tense battle of wills over 12 yards (11 meters) that has increasingly become a huge part of soccer and an unavoidable feature of the knockout stage in the biggest competitions. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits, File)

FILE - Argentina's Gonzalo Montiel, right, scores the winning penalty during a shootout to win the World Cup final soccer match against France at the Lusail Stadium in Lusail, Qatar, Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022. The penalty shootout is a tense battle of wills over 12 yards (11 meters) that has increasingly become a huge part of soccer and an unavoidable feature of the knockout stage in the biggest competitions. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco, File)

FILE - England's Harry Kane left, shoots to score past Italy's goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma during penalty shootout of the Euro 2020 soccer championship final match between England and Italy at Wembley Stadium in London, Sunday, July 11, 2021. The penalty shootout is a tense battle of wills over 12 yards (11 meters) that has increasingly become a huge part of soccer and an unavoidable feature of the knockout stage in the biggest competitions. (Paul Ellis/Pool via AP, File)

DENVER (AP) — The final fire truck rolled through the streets of Denver for the Nuggets' celebratory parade a year ago, carrying Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and the franchise's first NBA championship trophy.

The truck suddenly stopped following a right turn around a corner. An instant later, chaos.

On the concrete, amid the noise and celebrations, police Sgt. Justin Dodge found himself fighting for his life, his left foot run over by the front wheel of the 80,000-pound vehicle.

There, in the street, he made a vow — that if the tourniquets held and if rescue workers got him to the hospital in time aboard an all-terrain vehicle, he would stage an epic comeback.

He has, too, after eight surgeries including one that amputated his leg inches below the knee. A year after the June 15 accident, he is back full-time on the job as a SWAT team supervisor, has become a motivational speaker and the subject of a PBS documentary and is a phone call away for anyone going through a similar difficult time.

“That day was pretty rough for me,” Dodge said in a series of interviews with The Associated Press. “But because of the things that are happening and the positive story that I’m trying to create, and that people are seeing, I’m having the ability to hopefully impact people in a way that I never would have been able to impact them before.”

His new motto is, “Crush the Hard.”

Really, though, he has always operated in that manner. That's how he became an elite goaltender as a kid, including a stint with the St. Paul Vulcans of the United States Hockey League. That's how he rose to the ranks of second-degree black belt in the martial arts discipline of Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

And that's how he returned to full duties with the SWAT team four days before the one-year anniversary of the accident.

“People root for the underdog,” said the 51-year-old Dodge, who has been with the Denver Police Department for 27 years, including 18 with SWAT. “Based on my situation, I feel like they're cheering for me.”

An estimated 750,000 fans had assembled along the parade route — and at Civic Center Park — to celebrate the Nuggets beating Miami and bringing home the Larry O’Brien Trophy for the first time.

Dodge provided security by walking along with the last fire truck — the one carrying Jokic and Murray, along with team owner Stan Kroenke and president Josh Kroenke.

Nearing the end of the route, the truck turned and the tire caught Dodge's foot. It dragged him under the wheel but he was able to maneuver in a way — he credits Brazilian jiu-jitsu — that it didn't roll over his knee or hip.

All around there were shouts for the truck to brake. But the noise was so loud.

The truck stopped on his leg before backing up. It lasted only seconds "but felt like an eternity,” Dodge said.

Fellow first responders sprang into action. Two tourniquets were applied. Given the crowded streets, they didn’t wait for an ambulance but instead loaded him onto an ATV and raced him to Denver Health.

Immediately, he went into surgery in an effort to save both him and his lower leg.

Three weeks after the accident, his lower leg was amputated.

As he healed, many visitors stopped by the hospital to wish him well, including Murray. Another was the driver of the fire truck. They've become good friends.

“There's never been a day that I just sat there and went, ‘Why me?’" Dodge said. "Not one day. Because you can’t look back.”

Former Nuggets director of performance Steve Hess reached out to offer his help to Dodge. Hess, who runs his own fitness company, is known for his infectious energy.

It was the perfect pairing. They designed a blueprint to take Dodge from a wheelchair to back to his line of work using his prosthetic leg.

“Justin looks at everything as an opportunity,” Hess said. “He’s limitless, because he doesn’t buy into any restrictions."

There were tough days. Simple tasks early on, like taking a shower or scooting his way up stairs, were so draining.

“Sometimes, I would just literally lay my head on the floor (at the top of the stairs) and just openly cry with my kids surrounding me,” Dodge said.

Those moments only fueled him.

“He'd come to workouts hyped and I'd be like, ‘You do know that I’m about to kick your (butt),'” Hess said with a laugh. “There's no off switch.”

That's what it took to get him back to SWAT, where he's part of a team called in for hostage rescues or situations involving active shooters. To get him into elite SWAT shape, Hess had Dodge climbing over walls and performing heavy squat lifts and pushups.

When Dodge tested to return to his unit, he was stronger than before during an exercise in which he ran 400 meters with 25-pound weights in each hand and while wearing a gas mask.

“Nothing slows him down," Hess said. "He rises above it.”

These days, Dodge does numerous speaking engagements with an emphasis on resiliency and wellness. He makes time to talk to anyone who reaches out and is going through a similar experience. One of the questions he always asks: What are they doing today to be better for tomorrow?

“With the truck still on top of me, I was already starting my mental rehab,” Dodge said. “I knew my course of life had changed in an instant. But I told myself, ‘If I live to get to the hospital, I’m going to make an epic comeback.'"

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Denver Police Department Sgt. Justin Dodge stands for a portrait Wednesday, June 12, 2024, in south Denver. Dodge lost his left leg below the knee last June while providing security along the parade route for the NBA champion Denver Nuggets. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Denver Police Department Sgt. Justin Dodge takes part in a training exercise Friday, June 7, 2024, in a former athletic club now vacant in Lone Tree, Colo. Dodge, a SWAT team supervisor who was providing security along the parade route for the NBA champion Denver Nuggets last June, lost his left leg below the knee when the firetruck carrying guard Jamal Murray and center Nikola Jokic ran over his left ankle. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Denver Police Department Sgt. Justin Dodge hurries up the stairs on his prosthetic leg during a training exercise Friday, June 7, 2024, in a former athletic club now vacant in Lone Tree, Colo. Dodge, a SWAT team supervisor who lost his left leg below the knee after being run over by a firetruck during the Denver Nuggets' championship parade last June, is back on the job and makes it his mission to inspire others. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Denver Police Department Sgt. Justin Dodge surveys his gear Wednesday, June 12, 2024, in south Denver. Dodge lost his left leg below the knee when a firetruck carrying members of the NBA champion Denver Nuggets during a parade rolled over the officer's left ankle. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Denver Police Department Sgt. Justin Dodge stands for a portrait Wednesday, June 12, 2024, in south Denver. Dodge lost his left leg below the knee when he was struck by a firetruck carrying members of the NBA champion Denver Nuggets as the officer was providing security along the parade route for winning the title last June. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Denver Police Department Sgt. Justin Dodge takes part in a training exercise Friday, June 7, 2024, in a former athletic club nw vacant in Lone Tree, Colo. Dodge lost his left leg below the knee when his left ankle was run over by the firetruck carrying NBA champion Denver Nuggets last June. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)