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Japan revises economic growth in 1Q downward, as latest data show sluggish demand and rising prices

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Japan revises economic growth in 1Q downward, as latest data show sluggish demand and rising prices
News

News

Japan revises economic growth in 1Q downward, as latest data show sluggish demand and rising prices

2024-07-01 14:32 Last Updated At:14:41

BANGKOK (AP) — Japan revised its earlier estimates to show that its economy contracted at a 2.9% annual pace in the first quarter of the year, as meanwhile a survey by the central bank released Monday showed conditions remain sluggish.

Analysts had expected the downward revision in the GDP data for January-March and said it was mainly based on a change in data on construction activity. The earlier estimate was of a 1.8% contraction in annual terms.

The quarterly survey by the Bank of Japan showed a modest improvement in business sentiment among large and medium-size manufacturers. But details of the survey showed weakness in demand both in Japan and overseas.

“Across all industries and firm sizes, business conditions held steady at 12, which is on past form consistent with (quarterly) GDP growth of around 0%,” Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics said in assessing the tankan.

“A renewed slowdown in GDP growth this quarter would be consistent with the slump in industrial production firms were predicting for June,” he said.

A resumption of normal production among automakers after they had slowed factory lines due to shortages of computer chips last year was one factor behind the slight improvement in overall manufacturing sentiment, economists at ING Economics said.

The major highlight of the government's downward revision for growth early this year was that public investment contracted at a 1.9% rate. Earlier, it was estimated to have grown 3%. Private residential, or housing, fell 2.9% instead of the earlier estimate of a 2.5% contraction.

Japan's economy grew at a 0.1% annual pace in the last quarter of the year, just barely avoiding two consecutive quarters of contraction, or a technical recession. It expanded at a 1.8% annual rate in full-year 2023.

Weakness of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar has benefited exporters, who see their profits earned overseas inflated in yen terms when they are brought back home. But it also has sharply increased costs for the many commodities and products Japan imports, especially of oil and gas.

While the Federal Reserve in the U.S. has keep interest rates high to try to tame inflation that flared during the pandemic, Japan’s central bank has kept its benchmark rate near zero to keep credit cheap in hopes of spurring more spending and investment.

But price increases have have outstripped increases in Japanese workers' earning power, keeping demand relatively weak and sapping growth in an economy largely driven by consumer demand.

The latest data showed household spending falling in the first quarter of the year, in inflation-adjusted real terms.

FILE - People walk along a pedestrian crossing at Ginza shopping street on March 31, 2023, in Tokyo. Japan revised its earlier estimates to show that its economy contracted at a 2.9% annual pace in the first quarter of the year, as meanwhile a survey by the central bank released Monday, July 1, 2024, showed conditions remain sluggish. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko, File)

FILE - People walk along a pedestrian crossing at Ginza shopping street on March 31, 2023, in Tokyo. Japan revised its earlier estimates to show that its economy contracted at a 2.9% annual pace in the first quarter of the year, as meanwhile a survey by the central bank released Monday, July 1, 2024, showed conditions remain sluggish. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko, File)

FILE - A Japanese flag flutters at the Bank of Japan headquarters in Tokyo, Thursday, July 29, 2022. Japan revised its earlier estimates to show that its economy contracted at a 2.9% annual pace in the first quarter of the year, as meanwhile a survey by the central bank released Monday, July 1, 2024, showed conditions remain sluggish. (AP Photo/Shuji Kajiyama, File)

FILE - A Japanese flag flutters at the Bank of Japan headquarters in Tokyo, Thursday, July 29, 2022. Japan revised its earlier estimates to show that its economy contracted at a 2.9% annual pace in the first quarter of the year, as meanwhile a survey by the central bank released Monday, July 1, 2024, showed conditions remain sluggish. (AP Photo/Shuji Kajiyama, File)

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) — Colombia coach Néstor Lorenzo challenged his team to stay sharp and energized through every physical and emotional moment against mighty Brazil, all the way through two scorching-hot halves of soccer and nearly another 10 minutes of stoppage time.

“This was a match that we all wanted to have our strong moments of play, and I think we have taken another step forward," Lorenzo said. “With Brazil, you cannot be careless not even one second."

Daniel Muñoz scored the tying goal in the first-half stoppage time, and Colombia won its first-round group at the Copa America with a 1-1 draw against Brazil on Tuesday night that extended its unbeaten streak to 26 games.

Colombia goalkeeper Camilo Vargas saved Brazil's final chance on a shot by Andreas Pereira in the fifth minute of second-half stoppage time.

Colombia plays Panama in a quarterfinal on Saturday in Glendale, Arizona, while Brazil fell into what appears to be a more difficult game against Uruguay later that night at Las Vegas.

“It will be a difficult game against Uruguay, but they also know they will have a difficult game against Brazil," Brazil coach Dorival Júnior said.

Los Cafeteros, who finished with seven points to Brazil's five, had back-to-back scoring chances in the 84th minute but couldn't capitalize.

Brazil went ahead in the 12th minute when Raphinha launched a left-footed free kick into the upper right corner of the net just above the outstretched hand of Vargas.

The Brazilian winger jumped and pumped his fist as the seasoned Seleção struck first at Levi's Stadium, home of the NFL's San Francisco 49ers.

Players put on an entertaining show in the Group D finale, with Brazil’s Bruno Guimarães calling Colombia “a stone in our shoe” in the lead-up to Tuesday.

“There’s a sense of satisfaction after playing such a strong opponent,” Lorenzo said. “Now we need to think about Panama.”

What was expected to be a tense, foul-filled match more than lived up to that hype, featuring five yellow cards as a sea of jerseys of the same color representing both countries packed the seats — once the fans finally got inside, that is. Some scanning equipment became very hot and slowed the entry process.

A crowd of 70,971 attended the game, and the 24 group-stage games drew 1,115,400 for an average of 46,475.

The Bay Area is facing an excessive heat warning and the temperature at kickoff was 98 degrees — though about half the field on one sideline was shaded.

In the eighth minute, James Rodríguez had Colombia's best early chance when he hit the bar on a left-footed shot on a direct free kick from outside the penalty area He had another shot in the 16th that sailed high.

The midfielder, who turns 33 on July 12, has three assists this tournament for Los Cafeteros.

“It was like a final. It was super competitive game," he said. “It’s such a thrill facing star players. It’s the beautiful part of all this. ... There’s still a lot of work to do and on Saturday we have to come out and play very focused.”

Brazil, a team so accustomed to chasing championships in this event, faces a tougher road without a win against Colombia.

The Seleção have captured nine Copa titles and were runner-up in the 2021 tournament.

Colombia already had secured its spot in the quarterfinal round and has a 26-match unbeaten streak — including a 5-1 victory against the U.S. in a pre-tournament friendly, while Brazil then settled for a 1-1 draw with the Americans four days later in another tuneup.

Colombia beat Brazil 2-1 last year in the South American qualifiers and their first meeting since three matchups in 2021, when Brazil topped Colombia 2-1 in the Copa America.

AP Copa America coverage: https://apnews.com/hub/copa-america

Colombia's goalkeeper David Ospina fails to stop a free kick from Brazil's Raphinha, who scored his side's opening goal during a Copa America Group D soccer match in Santa Clara, Calif., Tuesday, July 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Tony Avelar)

Colombia's goalkeeper David Ospina fails to stop a free kick from Brazil's Raphinha, who scored his side's opening goal during a Copa America Group D soccer match in Santa Clara, Calif., Tuesday, July 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Tony Avelar)

Colombia's Luis Diaz gestures to fans after Colombia tied Brazil 1-1 in a Copa America Group D soccer match Tuesday, July 2, 2024, in Santa Clara, Calif. (AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez)

Colombia's Luis Diaz gestures to fans after Colombia tied Brazil 1-1 in a Copa America Group D soccer match Tuesday, July 2, 2024, in Santa Clara, Calif. (AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez)

Brazil's Vinicius Junior moves the ball upfield during the second half of a Copa America Group D soccer match against Colombia Tuesday, July 2, 2024, in Santa Clara, Calif. (AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez)

Brazil's Vinicius Junior moves the ball upfield during the second half of a Copa America Group D soccer match against Colombia Tuesday, July 2, 2024, in Santa Clara, Calif. (AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez)

A Brazil fan watches his team's Copa America Group D soccer match against Colombia on a screen for fans on Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro, Tuesday, July 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Bruna Prado)

A Brazil fan watches his team's Copa America Group D soccer match against Colombia on a screen for fans on Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro, Tuesday, July 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Bruna Prado)

Colombia's Davinson Sanchez, right, collides with Brazil's Joao Gomes during the second half of a Copa America Group D soccer match Tuesday, July 2, 2024, in Santa Clara, Calif. (AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez)

Colombia's Davinson Sanchez, right, collides with Brazil's Joao Gomes during the second half of a Copa America Group D soccer match Tuesday, July 2, 2024, in Santa Clara, Calif. (AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez)

Brazil's Andreas Pereira, right, and Colombia's Richard Rios battle for the ball during a Copa America Group D soccer match in Santa Clara, Calif., Tuesday, July 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Tony Avelar)

Brazil's Andreas Pereira, right, and Colombia's Richard Rios battle for the ball during a Copa America Group D soccer match in Santa Clara, Calif., Tuesday, July 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Tony Avelar)

Brazil's Vinicius Junior, center, watches his missed shot on goal during the second half of a Copa America Group D soccer match against Colombia Tuesday, July 2, 2024, in Santa Clara, Calif. (AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez)

Brazil's Vinicius Junior, center, watches his missed shot on goal during the second half of a Copa America Group D soccer match against Colombia Tuesday, July 2, 2024, in Santa Clara, Calif. (AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez)

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