Putin sees no need for nuclear weapons to win in Ukraine. But he's also keeping his options open

The message to NATO from President Vladimir Putin was simple and stark: Don't go too far in providing military support for Ukraine, or you'll risk a conflict with Russia that could quickly turn nuclear.

As the war in Ukraine turns slowly in Moscow's favor, Putin declared he doesn’t need nuclear weapons to achieve his goals. But he also says it's wrong for the West to assume that Russia will never use them.

“It mustn’t be treated in a light, superficial way,” Putin said in June, reaffirming that Russia's nuclear doctrine calls for using atomic weapons if it perceives a threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Moscow’s nuclear messaging — coming as NATO allies move to shore up exhausted and outgunned Ukrainian forces — heralds what could become the most dangerous phase in the war.

Moscow has carried out drills with its tactical — or battlefield — nuclear weapons in southern Russia and with ally Belarus, where some were deployed in 2023. Russian Defense Ministry videos showed Iskander missile launchers, nuclear-capable warplanes and sea-launched missiles.

The Kremlin described the exercises as a response to the West pondering the deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine and allowing Kyiv to use longer-range weapons for limited strikes on Russian territory.

“Reliance on nuclear threats and signals is an enduring trend in Russia’s activities amid the war in Ukraine,” said Heather Williams, senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Russian leadership may be assuming it has more at stake in Ukraine than NATO, and nuclear threats are one means of signaling its commitment to winning the war in the hopes of scaring off Western intervention.”

Ever since launching the Feb. 24, 2022, invasion, Putin has repeatedly referred to Russia’s nuclear might to discourage Western intervention. The United States and NATO criticized the nuclear saber-rattling but said they haven't seen any changes in Russia's nuclear posture warranting a response.

After early setbacks in Ukraine, Putin said Moscow was prepared to use “all means” to protect Russian territory, fueling fears he could turn to tactical nuclear weapons to halt Kyiv's advances. Putin later toned down his rhetoric after Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive didn't achieve its goals.

Amid Russia's recent military successes, Putin said Moscow doesn’t need nuclear weapons to win in Ukraine. Simultaneously, however, he warned that Kyiv's strikes on Russian soil with Western-supplied longer-range weapons would mark a major escalation because they would involve Western intelligence and military personnel — something the West denies.

“Representatives of NATO members, particularly in small countries of Europe, should be aware of what they are playing with,” he said, adding they could be mistaken to rely on U.S. protection if Russia strikes them.

“The constant escalation could lead to grave consequences,” he said. “If those grave consequences come to Europe, how will the U.S. act in view of our parity in strategic weapons? Hard to say. Do they want a global conflict?”

In May, Russian radar facilities were attacked by Ukrainian drones. One damaged a radar in the southern Krasnodar region, according to satellite images. Another targeted a similar facility in the southern Urals, about 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) east of the border.

Both are part of Russia’s early warning system to spot intercontinental ballistic missile launches thousands of kilometers (miles) away. Moscow and Washington rely on such systems to track each other’s launches.

Along with earlier Ukrainian raids on Russian nuclear-capable bomber bases, the radar strikes could qualify as triggers for atomic-weapons use under Moscow's nuclear doctrine. Russian hawks urged the Kremlin to respond forcefully.

At a June forum in St. Petersburg, Kremlin-connected foreign policy expert Sergei Karaganov urged Putin to “aim a nuclear pistol at our Western adversaries” to achieve victory in Ukraine.

Putin responded cautiously, saying he saw no security threats that warranted using Russia's nuclear arsenal. At the same time, he indicated Moscow was pondering changes in its nuclear doctrine.

Since the war began, hawks have urged a revision of the doctrine, which says Moscow could use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear strike or an attack with conventional weapons that threatens “the very existence” of the Russian state. Some of them argue the threshold is too high, leaving the West with the impression that the Kremlin won't ever touch its nuclear arsenal.

Foreign affairs analyst Dmitri Trenin of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, a Moscow think tank advising the Kremlin, urged modifying the doctrine to declare that Russia could use nuclear weapons first when “the core national interests are at stake,” like in Ukraine.

“It’s important to persuade the ruling elites in the U.S. and in the West as a whole that they won’t be able to stay comfortable and fully protected after provoking conflict with Russia,” Trenin said.

With the West allowing Ukraine to hit Russian territory, Putin threatened to respond by providing weapons to Western adversaries worldwide. He underscored the message in June by signing a mutual defense pact with North Korea, signaling Moscow could start arms deliveries to Pyongyang.

He also declared that Moscow would start producing intermediate-range missiles banned under a Cold War-era pact that Washington and Moscow scrapped in 2019. The Kremlin wouldn’t say where Moscow could deploy the new weapons that were prohibited by the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which outlawed ground-launched missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers (310 to 3,410 miles).

Such nuclear-capable missiles are seen as particularly destabilizing because they can reach targets faster than ICBMs, leaving practically no time for decision-makers and raising the likelihood of a global nuclear war over a false launch warning.

Hawks urged Putin to move quickly up a “ladder of escalation” to push the West to back off.

The exercise with battlefield nuclear weapons was one such move, Trenin said, while another could be an atomic test on Russia’s Arctic Novaya Zemlya archipelago. Putin has left the door open for resuming such tests, which are banned under a global pact that Russia has signed, although he noted "there is no need for that yet.”

Some Russian military experts said Moscow could declare a no-fly zone over the Black Sea to curb U.S. intelligence flights that help Ukraine strike targets in Russia. In late June, the Defense Ministry threatened to take unspecified measures against U.S. drones there.

Trenin and other experts said possible escalatory moves could include cyberattacks on U.S. and European infrastructure, conventional strikes on Western troops if any go to Ukraine, and attacks on military supply hubs for Kyiv on the territory of NATO members. U.S. military bases also could be targeted, they said.

At the top of the ladder, Russia could threaten nuclear strikes on NATO targets in Europe to “sober up the enemy and force it into the talks,” Trenin suggested.

“Active nuclear deterrence means the possibility of using nuclear weapons first in the ongoing conflict — not necessarily on the battlefield and not on the territory of Ukraine,” he said. “The enemy must have no doubt: Russia won’t allow itself to be defeated or blocked from achieving its declared goals by keeping nuclear weapons out of the conflict.”

The Associated Press receives support for nuclear security coverage from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and Outrider Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un exchange documents during a signing ceremony of the new partnership in Pyongyang, North Korea, on June 19, 2024. (Kristina Kormilitsyna, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

FILE - In this photo taken from video released by the Russian Defense Ministry on June 12, 2024, Lt. Gen. Igor Kolesnikov, head of the Russian Defense Ministry's department in charge of nuclear weapons, makes a statement about the joint Russian and Belarusian tactical nuclear weapons drills while standing in front of a Belarusian ground attack jet. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)

FILE - In this photo taken from video released by the Russian Defense Ministry on March 1, 2024, a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile is test-fired from a launch pad in northwestern Russia. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)

FILE - In this photo taken from video released by the Russian Defense Ministry on June 13, 2024, Belarusian soldiers operate an Iskander ballistic missile launcher during joint Russian and Belarusian drills with tactical nuclear weapons. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)

FILE - In this photo taken from video released by the Russian Defense Ministry on June 12, 2024, Russian military personnel load a cruise missile on board a warship during military drills with tactical nuclear weapons. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)

FILE - In this photo released by the Russian Defense Ministry on May 21, 2024, Russian air force crew work at an undisclosed location in Russia on a Tu-22M3 bomber for a training mission as part of military drills with tactical nuclear weapons. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)

FILE - Soldiers stand next to a Russian RS-24 Yars ballistic missile parked along Tverskaya street prior to a rehearsal for the Victory Day military parade in Moscow, on Thursday, May 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File)

FILE - In this photo taken from video released by the Russian Defense Ministry on June 11, 2024, navy personnel take part in drills on board of the Kazan nuclear submarine en route to Cuba. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service photo via AP, File)

FILE - In this photo taken from video released by the Russian Defense Ministry on April 14, 2023, a Russian nuclear submarine sails off to take part in the Pacific Fleet drills near Vladivostok, Russia. Ever since sending troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)

FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, background right, attend a ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, in Moscow, on June 22, 2024. (Sergei Guneyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

FILE - In this photo taken from video released by the Russian Defense Ministry on Monday, July 1, 2024, Russian soldiers fire from the BM-21 "Grad" self-propelled 122mm multiple rocket launcher in an undisclosed location in Ukraine. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)

FILE - A Russian Air Force MiG-31K jet carries a high-precision hypersonic aero-ballistic missile Kh-47M2 Kinzhal during the Victory Day military parade to celebrate 73 years since the end of WWII and the defeat of Nazi Germany, in Moscow, on May 9, 2018. (AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin, File)

FILE - In this photo released by the Russian Defense Ministry on Feb. 2, 2024, Russian troops load an Iskander missile onto a mobile launcher during drills at an undisclosed location in Russia. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)

FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a meeting at the Russian Foreign Ministry in Moscow, on June 14, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File)

An Israeli strike on a refugee camp in north Lebanon has killed Hamas official Saeed Atallah Ali and his family, the militant group said Saturday. The early morning strike came a day after another Israeli airstrike cut off a main highway linking Lebanon with Syria, leaving two huge craters on either side of the road.

Israel began a ground incursion Tuesday into Lebanon against the Hezbollah militant group. The Israeli military said nine soldiers have died in the conflict in southern Lebanon.

Israel and Hezbollah have traded fire across the Lebanon border almost daily since the day after Hamas’ cross-border attack on Oct. 7, 2023, which killed 1,200 Israelis and took 250 others hostage. Israel declared war on the Hamas militant group in the Gaza Strip in response. As the Israel-Hamas war reaches the one-year mark, more than 41,000 Palestinians have been killed in the territory, and just over half the dead have been women and children, according to local health officials.

Nearly 2,000 people have been killed in Lebanon since then, most of them since Sept. 23, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry.

Here is the latest:

TEL AVIV, Israel — The Israeli military said on Saturday that special forces were carrying out ground raids against Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon, destroying missiles, launchpads, watchtowers and weapons storage facilities. The military said troops also dismantled tunnel shafts that Hezbollah used to approach the Israeli border.

Some 1,400 Lebanese, including Hezbollah fighters and civilians, have been killed and some 1.2 million driven from their homes since Israel escalated its strikes in late September aiming to cripple Hezbollah and push it away from the countries’ shared border.

On Tuesday, Israel launched a limited ground operation into southern Lebanon. Nine Israeli troops have been killed in close fighting in the area in the past few days, which is saturated with arms and explosives, the military said.

BEIRUT — Beirut’s southern suburbs was hit by 12 Israeli airstrikes early Saturday, including one that badly damaged a large hall Hezbollah has used to hold ceremonies, Lebanon’s state news agency said.

Later in the day, more strikes hit the area, from which tens of thousands of people have fled over the past two weeks.

Israeli airstrikes also hit areas in southern and eastern Lebanon, according to state media. At least six people were killed, according to NNA.

CAIRO — Palestinian medical officials say Israeli strikes in northern and central Gaza early Saturday have killed at least nine people, including two children.

One strike hit a group of people in the northern town of Beit Hanoun, killing at least five people, including two children, according to the Health Ministry’s Ambulance and Emergency service.

Another strike hit a house in the northern part of Nuseirat refugee camp, killing at least four people, the Awda hospital said. The strike also left a number of wounded people, it said.

The Israeli military did not have any immediate comment on the strikes, but has long accused Hamas of operating from within civilian areas.

Almost 42,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza during the almost year-long war, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry, which does not differentiate between civilian and militant deaths.

CAIRO — The Israeli military on Saturday warned residents in parts of central Gaza to evacuate, saying its forces will soon operate there in response to Palestinian militants.

The warnings cover areas along a strategic corridor in central Gaza, which was at the heart of obstacles to a ceasefire deal earlier this summer. The military warned Palestinians in areas of Nuseirat and Bureij refugee camps, located along the Netzarim corridor, to evacuate to an along Gaza's shore called Muwasi, which the military has designated a humanitarian zone. It’s unclear how many Palestinians are currently living in the areas affected by the order, parts of which were evacuated previously.

Less than an hour after the evacuation order, Palestinians reported Israel’s artillery shelling and smoke bombing in the northern areas of Nuseirat camp. There were no immediate reports of casualties.

Israeli forces have repeatedly returned to heavily destroyed areas of Gaza where they fought earlier battles against Hamas and other militants since the start of the war one year ago.

The vast majority of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million people has been displaced in the war, often multiple times, and hundreds of thousands are packed into squalid tent camps.

Others have remained in their homes despite being ordered to leave, saying nowhere in the isolated coastal territory feels safe.

BEIRUT — An Israeli strike on a refugee camp in north Lebanon has killed a Hamas official and his family, the militant group said Saturday.

Hamas said in a statement that the early Saturday strike on the Beddawi refugee camp struck the home of Saeed Atallah Ali, an official with Hamas’s military wing, the Qassam Brigades. Ali’s wife, Shaymaa Azzam, and their two daughters, Zeinab and Fatima — whom the statement described as children — were also killed in the attack.

Beddawi camp is near the northern city of Tripoli. It was the first such strike on the camp in the recent conflict.

Israel has killed several Hamas officials in Lebanon since the Israel-Hamas war began in October 2023.

SEOUL, South Korea — A military plane evacuating 97 people from Lebanon arrived in South Korea on Saturday.

South Korea's Foreign Ministry said the group on the plane includes South Korean nationals and their family members. There are about 30 South Koreans left in Lebanon besides diplomats and embassy workers who are staying.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol instructed officials Wednesday to send military aircraft to conflict areas in the Middle East as he called a meeting to discuss the impact of the intensified fighting in the region. There are about 480 South Korean nationals living in Israel and 110 in Iran.

Kashmiri Shiite Muslims shout pro-Palestine and anti-Israel slogans during a protest in solidarity with Palestinians and against the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, at Mirgund north village of Srinagar, Indian controlled Kashmir, Friday, Oct. 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Mukhtar Khan)

Smoke rises after Israeli airstrikes in Dahiyeh, Beirut, Lebanon, Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

South Korean nationals and their family members arrive after being evacuated from Lebanon with a South Korea's military aircraft at the Seoul airport in Seongnam, South Korea, Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. (Korea Pool/Yonhap via AP)

Draped in the Hamas and Islamic Jihad flags, mourners take the last look at the bodies of 18 Palestinians who were killed in an Israeli airstrike during their funeral in Tulkarem, Friday, Oct. 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Nasser Nasser)

Kashmiri Shiite Muslims shout pro-Palestine and anti-Israel slogans during a protest in solidarity with Palestinians and against the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, at Mirgund north village of Srinagar, Indian controlled Kashmir, Friday, Oct. 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Mukhtar Khan)

Smoke rises after Israeli airstrikes in Dahiyeh, Beirut, Lebanon, Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)