Beryl set to strengthen on approach to Texas due to hot ocean temperatures

With its unprecedented tear through the ultrawarm waters of the southeast Caribbean, Beryl turned meteorologists’ worst fears of a souped-up hurricane season into grim reality. Now it’s Texas turn.

Beryl hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, then weakened to a tropical storm. It's expected to reach southern Texas by Sunday night or Monday morning, regaining hurricane status as it crosses over the toasty Gulf of Mexico.

National Hurricane Center senior specialist Jack Beven said Beryl is likely to make landfall somewhere between Brownsville and a bit north of Corpus Christi Monday. The hurricane center forecasts it will hit as a strong Category 1 storm, but wrote “this could be conservative if Beryl stays over water longer" than expected.

The waters in the Gulf of Mexico are warm enough for the early-season storm to rapidly intensify, as it has several times before.

“We should not be surprised if this is rapidly intensifying before landfall and it could become a major hurricane,” said Weather Underground co-founder Jeff Masters, a former government hurricane meteorologist who flew into storms. “Category 2 may be more likely but we should not dismiss a Category 3 possibility.”

Beven said the official forecast has Beryl gaining 17 to 23 mph in wind speed in 24 hours, but noted the storm intensified more rapidly than forecasters expected earlier in the Caribbean.

“People in southern Texas now need to really keep an eye on the progress of Beryl,” Beven said.

Masters and University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy said hurricane center forecasters have been very accurate in predicting Beryl’s track so far.

Already three times in its one-week life, Beryl has gained 35 mph in wind speed in 24 hours or less, the official weather service definition of rapid intensification.

The storm zipped from 35 mph to 75 mph on June 28. It went went from 80 mph to 115 mph in the overnight hours of June 29 into June 30 and on July 1 it went from 120 mph to 155 mph in just 15 hours, according to hurricane center records.

Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach, using a different tracking system, said he counted eight different periods when Beryl rapidly intensified — something that has only happened in the Atlantic in July two other times.

MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel doesn’t give Beryl “much of a chance″ for another 35 mph wind speed jump in the Gulf of Mexico, but said it's a tricky thing to forecast.

Beryl's explosive growth into an unprecedented early whopper of a storm shows the literal hot water the Atlantic and Caribbean are in right now and the figurative hot water the Atlantic hurricane belt can expect for the rest of the storm season, experts said.

The storm smashed various records even before its major hurricane-level winds approached the island of Carriacou in Grenada on Monday.

Beryl set the record for the earliest Category 4 with winds of at least 130 mph (209 kilometers per hour) — the first-ever category 4 in June. It also was the earliest storm to rapidly intensify with wind speeds jumping 63 mph (102 kph) in 24 hours, going from an unnamed depression to a Category 4 in 48 hours.

Colorado State University's Klotzbach called Beryl a harbinger.

Forecasters predicted months ago it was going to be a nasty year and now they are comparing it to record busy 1933 and deadly 2005 — the year of Katrina, Rita, Wilma and Dennis.

“This is the type of storm that we expect this year, these outlier things that happen when and where they shouldn't,” University of Miami's McNoldy said. “Not only for things to form and intensify and reach higher intensities, but increase the likelihood of rapid intensification.”

Warm water acts as fuel for the thunderstorms and clouds that form hurricanes. The warmer the water and thus the air at the bottom of the storm, the better the chance it will rise higher in the atmosphere and create deeper thunderstorms, said the University at Albany's Kristen Corbosiero.

“So when you get all that heat energy you can expect some fireworks,” Masters said.

Atlantic waters have been record warm since April 2023. Klotzbach said a high pressure system that normally sets up cooling trade winds collapsed then and hasn't returned.

Corbosiero said scientists are debating what exactly climate change does to hurricanes, but have come to an agreement that it makes them more prone to rapidly intensifying, as Beryl did, and increase the strongest storms, like Beryl.

Emanuel said the slowdown of Atlantic ocean currents, likely caused by climate change, may also be a factor in the warm water.

A brewing La Nina, which is a slight cooling of the Pacific that changes weather worldwide, also may be a factor. Experts say La Nina tends to depress high altitude crosswinds that decapitate hurricanes.

Isabella O'Malley contributed from Philadelphia.

Seth Borenstein has been covering hurricanes for nearly 35 years.

Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment

Follow Seth Borenstein on X at @borenbears

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A man stands next to a business destroyed by Hurricane Beryl in Clifton, Union Island, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Thursday, July 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Lucanus Ollivierre)

A man shows the destroyed roof of his home from Hurricane Beryl in the fishing settlement of Rocky Point, Clarendon, Jamaica, Thursday, July 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Collin Reid)

A man unclogs a drain in the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl, in Tulum, Mexico, Friday, July 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

A motorcyclist rides throw a street flooded by heavy rains from Hurricane Beryl, in Tulum, Mexico, Friday, July 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

This GOES-16 GeoColor satellite image taken at 4:16 p.m. EDT on Friday, July 5, 2024, and provided by NOAA, shows Hurricane Beryl over Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. Texas officials urged coastal residents to prepare as the storm moves toward the Gulf of Mexico. (NOAA via AP)

A man practices acrobatics with a pole on the beach in the aftermath by Hurricane Beryl in Tulum, Mexico, Friday, July 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

PALM DESERT, Calif. (AP) — Bronny James played in his first NBA preseason game Friday night, but LeBron James wasn't in uniform with him when the Lakers hosted Minnesota in the first of Los Angeles' two weekend games in the Coachella Valley.

Lakers coach JJ Redick elected to hold out LeBron James against the Timberwolves after three hard days of training camp, but the 39-year-old top scorer in NBA history is likely to play against Phoenix on Sunday — which just happens to be Bronny's 20th birthday.

Bronny James finished with two points in the Lakers’ 124-107 loss to the Timberwolves, missing his first five shots before making a layup with 56.9 seconds to play. But the 6-foot-2 guard also blocked three shots, and he picked up one rebound and one assist while playing the first half of the second quarter and most of the fourth, finishing with 16 minutes of action.

“I liked what I saw from Bronny,” Redick said. “Truthfully, he’s so easy to coach, and he’s got great soul and a great energy about him. I like being around him. I’m rooting for him. He’s a good player that we’re happy to have in our program.”

Bronny James didn't speak to reporters after his debut.

Before they become the first father and son to play in the same NBA game, Bronny James knows he has plenty of work to do. He got his first chance to play in Lakers gold when he took the floor to begin the second quarter at Acrisure Arena outside Palm Springs.

Playing alongside starting Lakers point guard D’Angelo Russell, Bronny got caught on a pick on his first defensive possession, allowing Rob Dillingham to hit an open 3-pointer. Bronny's pass was then intercepted by Nickeil Alexander-Walker on the other end, but Bronny hustled back and blocked his layup attempt.

“He can do some things defensively at his size that are really unique, and he can, I think, turn into a really disruptive defender, and that manifested itself,” Redick said. “On the offensive end, he’s still kind of figuring out who he is, and that’s our job as a player development program to build him up.”

Bronny missed all three of his shots during his first six minutes of action, including a 3-pointer. He picked up an assist when he found Rui Hachimura for a 3-pointer from the corner on a fast break.

Bronny returned for the start of the fourth quarter, missing a jumper and having a layup attempt blocked. In the final minute, he got a pass from fellow rookie Dalton Knecht and looped a layup over a defender for his first points.

Redick said Bronny earned playing time in the Lakers' preseason opener with three strong performances in practice this week.

LeBron appeared to be keeping a mindful distance from Bronny during the game, allowing his oldest son to focus on his job. But LeBron spoke at length to Bronny during a timeout halfway through the second quarter, explaining something with hand gestures while Bronny nodded.

Bronny James was the Lakers’ second-round draft pick, and he played in summer league in Las Vegas. He is expected to play for the Lakers in the preseason before spending a significant portion of the upcoming regular season with the G League’s South Bay Lakers.

“Of course there’s nerves,” Bronny said after the Lakers’ pregame shootaround. “But I’m just excited to go out there and learn from the people playing in front of me, and if I get a chance to showcase what I can do, I’m going to do that.”

As is typical for inactive players, LeBron largely stayed away from the Lakers' huddles. He mostly stood on the perimeter during timeouts with Anthony Davis, who also sat out the preseason opener. Both superstars have been at training camp in El Segundo.

“We felt like, given everything they had this summer, and their level of participation over the past three days, it made the most sense for them to get an off day today,” Redick said. “We told them at shootaround to just stay off their feet.”

Redick said Thursday that both LeBron James and Davis will play in at least one game this weekend.

James and Davis are sitting out the first of the Lakers’ six preseason games as they ease back into competition after a busy summer. LeBron and Davis were both on the U.S. team that won a gold medal at the Paris Olympics, and they walked to midcourt right before tipoff to greet Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards, their Olympic teammate.

Friday's crowd didn't seem disappointed as it poured into the 22-month-old arena that serves at the home of the American Hockey League's Coachella Valley Firebirds. Hundreds of fans in gold Lakers jerseys representing everyone from James to George Mikan rushed into the building and down the stairs in the lower bowl for an up-close look at the pregame warmups.

“The beautiful thing about the Lakers is that we have fans all over the world,” Redick said. “The desert over here is an extension, I think in some ways, of our fan base in LA. It's a great opportunity for our group to play in front of these fans tonight.”

AP NBA: https://apnews.com/NBA

Los Angeles Lakers guard Bronny James, right, tries to shoot as Minnesota Timberwolves guard Rob Dillingham defends during the first half of a preseason NBA basketball game, Friday, Oct. 4, 2024, in Palm Desert, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Los Angeles Lakers guard Bronny James shoots and misses during the first half of a preseason NBA basketball game against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Friday, Oct. 4, 2024, in Palm Desert, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Los Angeles Lakers guard Bronny James stands on the court during introductions prior to a preseason NBA basketball game against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Friday, Oct. 4, 2024, in Palm Desert, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Los Angeles Lakers guard Bronny James, right, runs to the other end of the court as Minnesota Timberwolves guard Rob Dillingham watches during the first half of a preseason NBA basketball game, Friday, Oct. 4, 2024, in Palm Desert, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Minnesota Timberwolves guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker, center, shoots as Los Angeles Lakers guard Bronny James, right, defends during the first half of a preseason NBA basketball game, Friday, Oct. 4, 2024, in Palm Desert, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Minnesota Timberwolves guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker, center, shoots as Los Angeles Lakers guard Bronny James, right, defends during the first half of a preseason NBA basketball game, Friday, Oct. 4, 2024, in Palm Desert, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

CORRECTS TO PALM DESERT, CALIF., NOT LOS ANGELES - Los Angeles Lakers guard Bronny James, right, shoots as Minnesota Timberwolves center Luka Garza defends during the first half of a preseason NBA basketball game, Friday, Oct. 4, 2024, in Palm Desert, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Los Angeles Lakers' LeBron James, left, greets his son, Bronny James as Bronny comes off the court during the first half of a preseason NBA basketball game, Friday, Oct. 4, 2024, in Palm Desert, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Los Angeles Lakers' LeBron James, left, and his son, Bronny James, pose for photos during the NBA basketball team's media day in El Segundo, Calif., Monday, Sept. 30, 2024. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)