JD Vance charted a Trump-centric, populist path in Senate as he fought GOP establishment

WASHINGTON (AP) — When Ohio Sen. JD Vance traveled to the Munich Security Conference earlier this year, he wasn’t there to reassure Europe and other global allies that America would aid Ukraine in its war against Russia, as all of the other senators were.

Instead, Vance was there to deliver what he called a “wake-up call.”

In a fiery speech, the freshman senator said that just because Russian President Vladimir Putin is a “bad guy” doesn’t mean that America’s own interests shouldn’t come first.

“There are a lot of bad guys all over the world, and I’m much more interested in some of the problems in East Asia right now than I am in Europe,” Vance said, arguing that the U.S. doesn’t have the money or the manufacturing capacity to help Ukraine enough to win the war.

Now elevated into the national spotlight as former President Donald Trump’s running mate, Vance's short Senate career reflects the forces transforming the Republican Party. In just a year and a half, he has carved out a unique role fighting traditional Republican establishment figures, including Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, particularly on foreign policy and aid to Ukraine. The 39-year old has been unafraid to challenge his fellow senators, many of them decades older, espousing a populist vision and defending Trump when many of his Republican colleagues stayed quiet.

“He was not afraid to go and speak his opinion to people who didn’t necessarily agree with him,” said Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, a senior Republican in the Senate, of Vance’s Munich trip. Barrasso, who who has grown close to Vance and advised him when he first came to Washington, said it was a “sign of boldness.”

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, a Republican who has long opposed aid for foreign conflicts, celebrated Vance's selection. “It’s great to have an opponent of endless wars and more aid to Ukraine on the ticket,” he wrote on X.

Vance, who served in Iraq as a Marine and is the author of the memoir “ Hillbilly Elegy,” was once a caustic critic of Trump, but became a fierce ally during his 2022 Senate race, landing Trump's crucial endorsement in the final weeks of a crowded GOP primary.

He then entered the Senate as one of Trump’s most vocal supporters, endorsing him in a January 2023 op-ed when many of his colleagues thought the former president’s political future was over. Vance argued that a series of foreign conflicts had failed to serve America’s interests, and “very few were ever challenged by a leader of national significance. That is, of course, until Donald Trump came along.”

Vance’s views on America’s role in the world put him in conflict with McConnell, despite significant financial help from the McConnell-backed Senate Leadership Fund in the final months of Vance’s campaign. As McConnell pushed for the last aid package to Ukraine, approved in April, Vance was its loudest Senate opponent.

“Why are we so obsessed with this? It is a fetish, Steve. I can’t pretend to understand it,” Vance said on Steve Bannon’s podcast in February.

Vance’s outspoken views on Ukraine prompted concerns across that region on Tuesday. “If this couple (Trump and Vance) wins, it will not be easy for us. It will not be easy for Europe. It will not be easy for the US,” posted Ukraine analyst Yurii Bohdanov on his Telegram channel.

At a press conference in Kyiv, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that while most of the Democratic Party supports Ukraine, there are varying positions among Republicans, some of whom are “more right-wing and radical.”

“If Mr. Donald Trump becomes president, then we will work with him" Zelenskyy said. "I am not afraid of it.”

Concerns about what Vance's ascension might mean for U.S. foreign policy extend beyond Ukraine.

European diplomats were loath to comment Tuesday on Vance, citing a desire not to be seen as interfering in American politics. But two U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private diplomatic conversations said they had gotten queries from counterparts in Europe asking how the Biden administration’s commitment to the continent’s security might be preserved if Trump were elected.

Vance has also defended Trump’s actions after the 2020 election, when the former president pressured states and Congress to try and overturn President Joe Biden’s legitimate victory. Vance denies that Trump tried to overturn the election and said he is “truly skeptical” that former Vice President Mike Pence’s life was in danger on Jan. 6, 2021, when Trump's supporters violently besieged the Capitol as Congress certified Biden’s victory. Some were chanting “hang Mike Pence” because Pence wouldn’t go along with Trump’s efforts.

Biden campaign chairwoman Jen O’Malley Dillon said that Trump picked Vance “because Vance will do what Mike Pence wouldn’t on January 6: bend over backwards to enable Trump and his extreme MAGA agenda, even if it means breaking the law.”

Vance's quick rise to popularity in Trump's inner circle was hardly assured, especially after he'd been critical of then-candidate Trump in 2016.

Donors didn’t initially want to talk to Vance as he ran for Senate, said a Republican familiar with the situation and granted anonymity to discuss it. Then wealthy entrepreneur Peter Thiel, a tech donor some see as a mentor to Vance, swooped in with millions for the primary race before the Senate Leadership Fund helped Vance in the general election.

As Vance turned himself into the “soul of MAGA” in the Senate, as the Republican called him, a key turning point for both Trump and Vance was a trip to East Palestine, Ohio, in early 2023 after a train full of toxic chemicals derailed there. As Biden initially stayed away, some Republicans credited the visit with boosting Trump’s own flagging campaign.

Vance later allied with Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, his Ohio colleague, to introduce legislation that would force railroads to follow new safety rules. The bill has since stalled, opposed by other Republicans, including McConnell, who think it is too favorable to unions and oppose new regulations on industry.

Like the railroad bill, Vance has teamed with Democrats on other issues that reflect his more populist vision. He worked with Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., on legislation that would claw back compensation for bank executives in the event of a bank failure, for example, and he was a critic of Boeing after a safety incident on one of their planes earlier this year.

“JD can really speak to this whole group of Democrats who have been left out, left behind by their party,” Barrasso said.

Still, Vance is largely untested on the national stage. And while his views may help the Trump ticket among white working-class voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, he could potentially turn off others in the swing states of Arizona, Nevada and Georgia.

Republican colleagues say his youth and conviction will ultimately win out.

Alabama Sen. Katie Britt, who was also elected in 2022, says Vance has distinguished himself in the GOP conference because he “is unafraid to enter any room.” And as a fellow parent of younger children, “we come at it with a different perspective and a different energy,” she said.

“He has a lot of self confidence,” says Texas Sen. John Cornyn, whom Vance once worked for as a law clerk on the Senate Judiciary Committee. “JD really represents the next generation of leaders — he’s obviously only 39 years old but I think he's prepared for the job.”

Associated Press writers Hanna Arhirova in Kyiv, Ukraine and Matthew Lee in Washington contributed to this report.

Republican vice presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, and his wife Usha Chilukuri Vance arrive on the floor during the first day of the 2024 Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum, Monday, July 15, 2024, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

Republican vice presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, arrives on the floor during the first day of the 2024 Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum, Monday, July 15, 2024, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

Summer 2024 sweltered to Earth's hottest on record, making it even more likely that this year will end up as the warmest humanity has measured, European climate service Copernicus reported Friday.

And if this sounds familiar, that's because the records the globe shattered were set just last year as human-caused climate change, with a temporary boost from an El Nino, keeps dialing up temperatures and extreme weather, scientists said.

The northern meteorological summer — June, July and August — averaged 16.8 degrees Celsius (62.24 degrees Fahrenheit), according to Copernicus. That's 0.03 degrees Celsius (0.05 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the old record in 2023. Copernicus records go back to 1940, but American, British and Japanese records, which start in the mid-19th century, show the last decade has been the hottest since regular measurements were taken and likely in about 120,000 years, according to some scientists.

The Augusts of both 2024 and 2023 tied for the hottest Augusts globally at 16.82 degrees Celsius (62.27 degrees Fahrenheit). July was the first time in more than a year that the world did not set a record, a tad behind 2023, but because June 2024 was so much hotter than June 2023, this summer as a whole was the hottest, Copernicus Director Carlo Buontempo said.

“What those sober numbers indicate is how the climate crisis is tightening its grip on us,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research, who wasn't part of the research.

It's a sweaty grip because with the high temperatures, the dew point — one of several ways to measure the air's humidity — probably was at or near record high this summer for much of the world, Buontempo said.

Until last month Buontempo, like some other climate scientists, was on the fence over whether 2024 would smash the hottest year record set last year, mostly because August 2023 was so enormously hotter than average. But then this August 2024 matched 2023, making Buontempo “pretty certain” that this year will end up hottest on record.

“In order for 2024 not to become the warmest on record, we need to see very significant landscape cooling for the remaining few months, which doesn't look likely at this stage,” Buontempo said.

With a forecasted La Nina — a temporary natural cooling of parts of the central Pacific — the last four months of the year may no longer be record-setters like most of the past year and a half. But it's not likely cool enough to keep 2024 from breaking the annual record, Buontempo said.

These aren't just numbers in a record book, but weather that hurts people, climate scientists said.

“This all translates to more misery around the world as places like Phoenix start to feel like a barbecue locked on high for longer and longer stretches of the year,” said University of Michigan environment dean and climate scientist Jonathan Overpeck. The Arizona city has had more than 100 days of 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 degrees Celsius) weather this year. “With longer and more severe heat waves come more severe droughts in some places, and more intense rains and flooding in others. Climate change is becoming too obvious, and too costly, to ignore.”

Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Cape Cod, said there's been a deluge of extreme weather of heat, floods, wildfires and high winds that are violent and dangerous.

“Like people living in a war zone with the constant thumping of bombs and clatter of guns, we are becoming deaf to what should be alarm bells and air-raid sirens,” Francis said in an email.

While a portion of last year's record heat was driven by an El Nino — a temporary natural warming of parts of the central Pacific that alters weather worldwide — that effect is gone, and it shows the main driver is long-term human-caused climate change from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas, Buontempo said.

“It's really not surprising that we see this, this heat wave, that we see these temperature extremes,” Buontempo said. “We are bound to see more.”

Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment

Follow Seth Borenstein on X at @borenbears

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

FILE - A man wears a damp towel on his head during a hot day in New York, Tuesday, July 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig, File)

FILE - People queue at a fountain in St. Peter's Square on a hot day at the Vatican, Sunday, Aug. 11, 2024. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia, File)

FILE - Anna, 7, cools off under a misting fountain on a hot afternoon during the 2024 Summer Olympics, Monday, July 29, 2024, in Paris, France. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda, File)

FILE - Staff at Lakewood Church hand out water and operate a cooling station in Houston, July 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Eric Gay, File)

FILE - Zariah Fields eats a popsicle, June 20, 2024, at YMCA Camp Kern in Oregonia, Ohio. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel, File)

FILE - A patient suffering from heatstroke receives treatment at a hospital in Karachi, Pakistan, June 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Fareed Khan, File)

FILE - A boy cools himself with an electric fan on a sweltering day at a park in Tongzhou, on the outskirts of Beijing, Monday, June 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)

FILE - Margarita Salazar, 82, wipes the sweat off with a tissue inside her home in Veracruz, Mexico on June 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Felix Marquez, File)