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Japan's first-ever megaquake advisory brings worry and confusion. What does it mean?

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Japan's first-ever megaquake advisory brings worry and confusion. What does it mean?
News

News

Japan's first-ever megaquake advisory brings worry and confusion. What does it mean?

2024-08-15 11:33 Last Updated At:11:41

TOKYO (AP) — Japan, one of the most earthquake-prone nations on earth, issued its first-ever “megaquake advisory” last week after a powerful quake struck off the southeastern coast of the southern main island of Kyushu.

The magnitude 7.1 quake caused no deaths or severe damage, but the advisory has led to widespread confusion and a lingering sense of worry — in a country well accustomed to regular quakes — about when the next big one will hit.

The Associated Press explains what the advisory means, what people are being told to do, and what could happen if a massive quake hits Japan.

The Japan Meteorological Agency issued the advisory after concluding that the magnitude 7.1 quake that struck on Aug. 8 on the western edge of the Nankai Trough increased the likelihood of a stronger one.

There is a 70-80% chance of a magnitude 8 or 9 quake associated with the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years, and the probability is now “higher than normal” after the latest quake, the JMA says.

But that is not a prediction that a megaquake will happen at any specific time or location, says University of Tokyo seismologist Naoshi Hirata, who heads the JMA’s experts panel. He urged people to remain cautious and prepared.

The Nankai Trough is an undersea trench that runs from Hyuganada, in the waters just off the southeastern coast of Kyushu, to Suruga Bay in central Japan. It spans about 800 kilometers (500 miles) along the Pacific coast.

The Philippine Sea Plate there slowly pulls down on the Eurasian Plate and causes it to occasionally snap back, an action that could lead to a megaquake and tsunami, JMA says.

The last Nankai Trough quake off Shikoku in 1946 recorded a preliminary magnitude of 8.0 and killed more than 1,300 people.

In 2013, a government disaster prevention team said a magnitude 9.1 Nankai Trough quake could generate a tsunami exceeding 10 meters (33 feet) within minutes, killing as many as 323,000 people, destroying more than 2 million buildings and causing economic damage of more than 220 trillion yen ($1.5 trillion) to large swaths of Japan’s Pacific coast.

As a result of the “megaquake advisory,” Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida canceled his planned Aug. 9-12 trip to Central Asia and announced he would lead the government response and ensure preventive measures and communication with the public.

The Fire and Disaster Management Agency instructed 707 municipalities seen as at risk from a Nankai Trough quake to review their response measures and evacuation plans.

Experts and officials have urged people to stay calm and carry on their daily social and economic activities while also securing emergency food and water and discussing evacuation plans with family members.

In a reassuring note on Monday, JMA experts said they have so far found no abnormal seismic or tectonic activity that would indicate a megaquake.

The “megaquake advisory,” which is filled with scientific jargon, has worried and baffled people across the country. Some towns closed beaches and canceled annual events, which has led to challenges for travelers during Japan’s Obon holiday week, a time for festivals and fireworks across the nation.

Many people have put off planned trips and rushed to stock up on rice, dried noodles, canned food, bottled water, portable toilets and other emergency goods, leaving shelves empty at many supermarkets in western Japan and Tokyo, even though the capital is outside the at-risk area.

The Summit supermarket chain said microwavable rice is in short supply and the store is limiting purchases to one pack per customer.

Yoshiko Kudo and her husband Shinya said they had trouble understanding what exactly the advisory meant, how worried they should be and what they should do.

“We are trying not to go overboard. Too much worry is not good,” Yoshiko Kudo said.

“We don’t know how to be prepared and to still live normally like the experts tell us,” said Shinya Kudo, a caregiver in his 60s.

Yoneko Oshima, walking by a major train station in Tokyo, said: “It’s scary ... They say there's a (70-80%) chance in the next 30 years, but it could be tomorrow.” Her latest purchase is a portable toilet. She says water is indispensable for her diabetic husband, who needs to take medicine after every meal.

“I plan to take this opportunity to make a list and make sure we have everything at hand,” Oshima said. She hasn’t changed her holiday plans this week, but her daughter canceled a planned trip to Mount Fuji.

In Matsuyama city on the island of Shikoku, which has many hot springs, hotels and resorts reviewed their evacuation procedures and emergency equipment and launched a radio communication system for emergency use. They have received hundreds of cancellations since the advisory was issued, said Hideki Ochi, director of the Dogo Onsen Ryokan Association.

Rail companies serving the region said their trains are operating at slightly reduced speeds as a precaution.

A crisis management task force in the coastal town of Kuroshio in Kochi prefecture, where a tsunami as high as 34 meters (111 feet) was predicted in the government risk analysis, initially set up 30 shelters across town. But only two are still open following Monday’s JMA statement that there has been no indication of an impending megaquake.

Higashi Osaka urged residents on the town website not to engage in “unnecessary and non-urgent” travel in case of a major quake.

The popular seaside town of Shirahama in Wakayama prefecture said its four outdoor hot springs, parks and other facilities would be closed for a week. Saturday’s annual fireworks festival was also canceled.

University of Tokyo seismologist Naoshi Hirata, left, a member of an expert panel, speaks during a press conference on the possible Nankai Trough earthquake, at Japan Meteorological Agency in Tokyo, on Aug. 8, 2024. (Kyodo News via AP)

University of Tokyo seismologist Naoshi Hirata, left, a member of an expert panel, speaks during a press conference on the possible Nankai Trough earthquake, at Japan Meteorological Agency in Tokyo, on Aug. 8, 2024. (Kyodo News via AP)

A person checks emergency kit sold at a shop following a strong earthquake in Shibushi, Kagoshima prefecture, southern Japan, on Aug. 9, 2024. (Kyodo News via AP)

A person checks emergency kit sold at a shop following a strong earthquake in Shibushi, Kagoshima prefecture, southern Japan, on Aug. 9, 2024. (Kyodo News via AP)

Stone lanterns fall at a shrine following a strong earthquake in Nichinan, Miyazaki prefecture, southern Japan, on Aug. 9, 2024. (Kyodo News via AP)

Stone lanterns fall at a shrine following a strong earthquake in Nichinan, Miyazaki prefecture, southern Japan, on Aug. 9, 2024. (Kyodo News via AP)

A beach is deserted after swimming was prohibited as the megaquake advisory was issued in Nichinan, Miyazaki prefecture, southern Japan, on Aug. 9, 2024. (Kyodo News via AP)

A beach is deserted after swimming was prohibited as the megaquake advisory was issued in Nichinan, Miyazaki prefecture, southern Japan, on Aug. 9, 2024. (Kyodo News via AP)

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Everything you need to know about the 2025 Sundance Film Festival

2025-01-23 02:08 Last Updated At:02:11

PARK CITY, Utah (AP) — As many in the entertainment industry navigate the devastating effects of the California wildfires, some will soon be decamping to cleaner air in the mountains. The annual Sundance Film Festival begins Thursday in Park City, Utah.

The 41st edition of Robert Redford’s brainchild will, as always, be a year of discovery and discussion. There are timely films:

— “Free Leonard Peltier,” which will premiere just days after former President Joe Biden commuted the sentence of the Indigenous activist nearly half a century after he was imprisoned for the 1975 killings of two FBI agents.

— Oscar-winner Mstyslav Chernov’s“2000 Meters to Andriivka,” a joint production between The Associated Press and Frontline about an attempt to liberate an occupied territory in Ukraine

— Several films about trans rights including “Heightened Scrutiny,” about civil rights lawyer Chase Strangio. It's a topic even more pressing after President Donald Trump signed executive orders Monday rolling back protections for transgender people.

There are even some controversies brewing: “The Stringer,” from documentary filmmaker Bao Nguyen, calls into question who took the Pulitzer Prize-winning “Napalm Girl” photograph. Retired AP photographer Nick Ut and the AP, which conducted a six-month investigation into the allegation, are contesting it and Ut's lawyers have asked for it to be pulled from the program.

“The film is an investigation,” said Eugene Hernandez, the director of the festival, who is moving forward with plans to screen it. “I think it will be a really important conversation that will come out over the next few days after the film is seen by more people.”

Don’t worry, it’s not all heavy. There’s drama of course, even a film about starting over after a fire (“Rebuilding,” with Josh O’Connor), horror, satire, literary adaptations, comedy, documentaries about famous faces, and some that simply defy categorization.

“There’s some really funny stuff in the program,” Hernandez said. One of those Hernandez cited is “Bubble & Squeak,” about a married couple accused of smuggling cabbages into a nation where they’re banned.

For first time filmmakers, Sundance can be their chance to break through in a big way. That happened last year for “Dìdi” filmmaker Sean Wang. Some films that debuted last January are still in the awards conversation, like “A Real Pain” and “A Different Man.” For actors, the festival is both a casual respite to awards season glitz (snow boots are more likely on red carpets than high heels) and can be a chance to show audiences a new dimension of their talent.

“It’s a strong year of renewal for our artist community,” Hernandez said. “And we have a lot of really great voices and stories that we get to unveil in the coming days.”

Here’s everything you need to know:

Sundance runs from Jan. 23 through Feb. 2. There are about 90 features premiering across the 11 days, with screenings starting early in the morning through midnight. Award-winners will be announced on Jan. 31.

Stars with films premiering include Jennifer Lopez, Benedict Cumberbatch, Diego Luna, Conan O’Brien, Alison Brie, Dave Franco, Ayo Edebiri, Olivia Colman, André Holland, Steven Yeun, Mark Ruffalo, Bowen Yang, Carey Mulligan, Joel Edgerton, Lily Gladstone, Dev Patel, Emily Watson, John Lithgow, Marlee Matlin, John Malkovich, Rose Byrne, Chloë Sevigny, Josh O’Connor, Ben Whishaw, Dylan O’Brien, Lili Reinhart and Willem Dafoe.

One of the greatest things about Sundance is that it’s often the under-the-radar movies that become the breakouts.

But some of the higher-profile premieres going into the festival include: Bill Condon’s “Kiss of the Spider-Woman,” starring Lopez; Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson’s documentary “SLY LIVES! (aka The Burden of Black Genius)”; “Opus,” a horror about the cult of celebrity with Edebiri and John Malkovich; Andrew Ahn’s “The Wedding Banquet,” with Bowen Yang and Kelly Marie Tran; the war satire “Atropia,” with Alia Shawkat; “Pee-wee as Himself,” about the late Paul Reubens; “Marlee Matlin: Not Alone Anymore”; and Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman’s doc “The Alabama Solution,” about a cover-up in one of America’s most notorious prison systems.

Festival organizers have been in dialogue with filmmakers, staff, audiences and donors about the effects of the fires, supporting and accommodating where possible including pushing back deadlines to allow filmmakers more time to finish. The festival will also have a QR code displayed before screenings for information on sharing resources or contributing to relief efforts.

“As hard as the last week has been, this will be a moment to come together,” Hernandez said. “The community’s really responding to support those who need it most right now. I think that’s going to be a profound aspect of this year’s festival.”

For the most part, yes. Starting in 2027 the festival will no longer be primarily based in Park City. It may stay in Utah but would operate mainly out of Salt Lake City. Other finalists are Boulder, Colorado, and Cincinnati, Ohio. The Sundance Institute is expected to announce its final decision in the first quarter of 2025.

“Park City as the home of Sundance is such a special place,” Hernandez said. “I look at it optimistically because we have two more exciting years in this current configuration. I think we’re going to make the most of those two years and make them as memorable and meaningful as we can.”

Access to the movies premiering at Sundance doesn’t necessary require an expensive trip to Park City anymore. The festival has fully embraced an online component for many of their films.

What started as a necessary COVID-19 adjustment has become a vital part of the program. From Jan. 30 through Feb. 2, audiences can stream much of the program online. Prices start at $35 for a single film ticket and go up to $800 for unlimited access.

Otherwise, films that secure distribution can take anywhere from a few weeks to over a year to hit theaters or streaming services. Steven Soderbergh's “Presence,” which premiered last January, is just hitting theaters this week.

For more coverage of the 2025 Sundance Film Festival visit: https://apnews.com/hub/sundance-film-festival

The marquee of the Egyptian Theatre is shown Thursday, Jan. 28, 2021, in Park City, Utah. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)

The marquee of the Egyptian Theatre is shown Thursday, Jan. 28, 2021, in Park City, Utah. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)

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