More destructive earthquakes could be set to hit around Italy's Naples in the future due to continuous surface uplift in the area amid months of eruptions brought by continuing volcanic activity, experts have warned.
The Phlegraean Fields, situated west of the historic city of Naples, is a major volcanic cluster that has been active for more than 80,000 years. Over the last 5,500 years, it has erupted at least 27 times, with the last one coming back in 1538.
Although it has been quiet for nearly five centuries, it is still considered one of the most dangerous volcanic areas in Europe, with fears that a major eruption could impact on the entire European continent.
Back in May, dozens of families were evacuated in the wake of more than 200 quakes and aftershocks, which also brought the strongest tremor since 1984, when a quake measuring 4.4 on the Richter scale struck the area.
Over the years, Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) Vesuvian observatory has been closely monitoring the volcanic activities in the cluster, with the recent situation putting experts on greater alert.
"Experts will analyze the data in detail to decide if the warning level needs to be changed. What we can do is to strengthen and improve our monitoring level, and provide more accurate statistics to civil protection department and committee that handles major disasters," said Vincenzo Convertito, chief researcher of the INGV Vesuvian observatory.
Currently, the eruption risk at the Phlegraean Fields is deemed low. But the occurrence of surface uplift caused by the flow of underground magma has posed threats to safety in the surrounding area.
Convertito pointed out that earthquakes caused by surface uplift usually won't reach a dangerously high magnitude, but noted that they can be easily felt and cause visible damage to infrastructure and buildings. This is a particular concern in Naples, known as one of Europe's most ancient cities and is home to a wealth of historical architecture, as well as a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Another concern is that the greater Naples area is home to over four million people, with the Phlegraean Fields region alone having an estimated 500,000 residents.
"One of the serious issues is that since the historical buildings here are quite fragile, it will worsen the consequences of an earthquake. While the other worry is the level of impact. Like the Vesuvius volcano, there are also many residents living nearby the Phlegraean Fields," Convertito said, referring to famous Mount Vesuvius eruption which destroyed the Roman city of Pompeii back in 79 AD.
Since 2005, the Earth's surface in the Phlegraean Fields has been uplifted by more than 1.3 meters, and has risen 13 centimeters this year alone, causing frequent seismic activities. Many local buildings, especially older historic ones, have suffered varying degrees of damage due to the regular quakes.
Convertito believes that as this surface uplift continues, there could be more destructive developments in the future.
"We know very well that as long as the surface uplift doesn't slow down, there must be earthquakes that are above magnitude four [on the Richter scale]. Such a possibility cannot be ruled out for now," he said.
Threat of more destructive earthquakes lingers near southern Italy's Naples
