Sluggish US jobs report clears the way for Federal Reserve to cut interest rates

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Sluggish US jobs report clears the way for Federal Reserve to cut interest rates

2024-09-07 00:35 Last Updated At：00:41

WASHINGTON (AP) — Hiring by America’s employers picked up a bit in August from July’s tepid pace, and the unemployment rate dipped for the first time since March in a sign that the job market may be cooling but remains sturdy.

Employers added a modest 142,000 jobs, up from a scant 89,000 in July, the Labor Department said Friday. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% from 4.3%, which had been the highest level in nearly three years. Hiring in June and July, though, was revised sharply down by a combined 86,000. July's job gain was the smallest since the pandemic.

“The labor market is weakening,” said Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James Financial. “It is not falling apart, but it is weakening.”

The cooling jobs figures underscore why the Federal Reserve is set to cut its key interest rate when it next meets Sept. 17-18, with inflation falling steadily back to its target of 2%. Still, the August jobs data raises the question of how large a rate cut the Fed will announce. It could decide to reduce its benchmark rate by a typical quarter-point or by a larger-than-usual half-point. In the coming months, the policymakers will also decide how much and how fast to cut rates at their subsequent meetings.

Christopher Waller, an influential Fed policymaker, suggested in a speech Friday that the central bank is leaning toward a quarter-point reduction this month. But he left the door open for larger rate cuts, if necessary, later this year.

“I do not expect this first cut to be the last," Waller said in a speech at the University of Notre Dame. "With inflation and employment near our longer-run goals and the labor market moderating, it is likely that a series of reductions will be appropriate.”

“I am open-minded," he added, “about the size and pace of cuts, which will be based on what the data tell us about the evolution of the economy.”

Waller also said the economy and job market are still growing, “and the prospects for continued growth and job creation are good,” a sign that for now, he thinks a quarter-point reduction is appropriate for the Fed's first rate cut.

Collectively, Friday’s figures depict a job market slowing under the pressure of high interest rates but still growing. Many businesses appear to be holding off on adding jobs, in part because of uncertainty about the outcome of the presidential election and about how fast the Fed will reduce its benchmark rate in the coming months.

Daniel Zhao, lead economist at the career website Glassdoor, said some of the details in the August jobs report indicate that businesses' demand for workers is slowing. The number of Americans who are working part time but would prefer full-time work rose, extending a year-long trend.

“When you look under the hood, you’re seeing numbers that confirm that the job market is on that cooling trajectory," Zhao said.

America's labor market is now in an unusual place: Jobholders are mostly secure, with layoffs low, historically speaking. Yet with the pace of hiring having weakened, landing a job has become harder.

Over the past three months, job growth has averaged only 116,000 a month, down sharply from an average of 211,000 a year ago. Over time, that may not be enough to keep up with growth in the number of people looking for work, economists say. An influx of immigrants in the past three years has enlarged the nation's workforce.

And August's job gains were concentrated in just a few industries, with health care adding 44,000 jobs, restaurants, hotels and entertainment companies gaining 46,000, and construction 34,000. Steady hiring by restaurants and hotels could reflect ongoing gains in consumer spending, which rose last month even after adjusting for inflation. Manufacturers and retailers cut jobs in August.

In a major speech last month, Chair Jerome Powell suggested that the Fed’s policymakers have all but tamed inflation through high interest rates and don’t want to see the job market weaken further. The central bank is trying to achieve a “soft landing,” in which it succeeds in driving inflation down from a 9.1% peak in 2022 to its target level without causing a recession. A lower Fed benchmark rate will lead eventually to lower borrowing costs for a range of consumer and business loans, including mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.

For now, companies are posting fewer job openings and adding fewer workers, while Americans are far less likely to quit their jobs now than they were soon after the economy rebounded from the pandemic. In a strong job market, workers are more likely to quit, usually for higher-paying opportunities. With quits declining, it means fewer jobs are opening up for people out of work.

Becky Frankiewicz, North American president of the staffing firm ManpowerGroup, said that uncertainty around the presidential election and the Fed’s next moves are causing many companies to hold back on new investments and hiring.

“There’s a whole world waiting to see what happens with our election,” she said. “We have this great waiting game. No one wants to make big moves yet.”

Still, Frankiewicz said the job market appears to be stable for now.

“The bottom isn’t falling out, and we’re not seeing a rocket ship,” she said. “It’s stability.”

A slower pace of hiring is often a precursor to layoffs — one reason why the Fed’s policymakers are now more focused on sustaining the health of the job market than on continuing to fight inflation.

Recent economic data has been mixed, elevating the importance of the jobs report, which is among the more comprehensive economic snapshots the government issues. The Labor Department surveys roughly 119,000 businesses and government agencies and 60,000 households each month to compile the employment data.

The Fed’s Beige Book, a collection of anecdotes from the 12 regional Fed banks, reported that many employers appeared to have become pickier about whom they hired in July and August. And a survey by the Conference Board in August found that the proportion of Americans who think jobs are hard to find has been rising, a trend that has often correlated with a higher unemployment rate.

At the same time, consumer spending, the principal driver of economic growth in the United States, rose at a healthy pace in July. And the economy grew at a solid 3% annual pace in the April-June quarter.

'Shogun' and 'Hacks' win top series Emmy Awards and 'The Bear' and 'Baby Reindeer' take 4 apiece

2024-09-16 13:05 Last Updated At：13:11

LOS ANGELES (AP) — “Shogun” had historic wins in an epic 18-Emmy first season, “Hacks” scored an upset for best comedy on what was still a four-trophy night for “The Bear,” and “Baby Reindeer” had a holiday at an Emmy Awards that had some surprising swerves.

“Shogun," the FX series about power struggles in feudal Japan, won best drama series, Hiroyuki Sanada won best actor in a drama, and Anna Sawai won best actress. Sanada was the first Japanese actor to win an Emmy. Sawai became the second just moments later.

”‘Shogun’ taught me when we work together, we can make miracles,” Sanada said in his acceptance speech from the stage of the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles.

Along with 14 Emmys it claimed at the precursor Creative Arts Emmys, it had an unmatched performance with 18 overall for one season.

“Hacks” was the surprise winner of its first best comedy series award, topping “The Bear,” which most had expected to take it after big wins earlier in the evening.

Jean Smart won her third best actress in a comedy award for the third season of Max's “Hacks,” in which her stand-up comic character Deborah Vance tries to make it in late-night TV. Smart has six Emmys overall.

Despite losing out on the night's biggest comedy prize after winning it for its first season at January's strike-delayed ceremony, FX's “The Bear” star Jeremy Allen White won best actor in a comedy for the second straight year, and Ebon Moss-Bachrach repeated as best supporting actor.

And Liza Colón-Zayas was the surprise best supporting actor winner over competition that included Meryl Streep, becoming the first Latina to win in the category.

“To all the Latinas who are looking at me,” she said, her eyes welling with tears. “keep believing, and vote.”

Netflix’s darkly quirky “Baby Reindeer” won best limited series. Creator and star Richard Gadd won for his lead acting and his writing and Jessica Gunning, who plays his tormentor, won best supporting actress.

Accepting the series award, Gadd urged the makers of television to take chances.

“The only constant across any success in television is good storytelling," he said. "Good storytelling that speaks to our times. So take risks, push boundaries. Explore the uncomfortable. Dare to fail in order to achieve.”

“Baby Reindeer” is based on a one man-stage show in which Gadd describes being sexually abused along with other emotional struggles.

Accepting that award, he said, “no matter how bad it gets, it always gets better.”

The Associated Press does not typically name people who say they have been sexually abused unless they come forward publicly as Gadd has.

Jodie Foster won her first Emmy to go with her two Oscars when she took best actress in a limited series for “True Detective: Night Country.”

Foster played a salty police chief investigating a mass killing in the round-the-clock dark of an Alaskan winter on the HBO show. While her castmate Kali Reis missed out on becoming the first Indigenous actor to win an Emmy in the supporting category, Foster praised her, and the show's collaboration with Indigenous contributors.

“The Inupiaq and Inuit people of northern Alaska who told us their stories, and they allowed us to listen," Foster said. "That was just a blessing. It was love, love, love, and when you feel that, something amazing happens.”

Greg Berlanti, a producer and writer on shows including “Dawson's Creek” and “Everwood,” received the Television Academy's Governors Award for his career-long contributions to improving LGBTQ visibility on television. He talked about a childhood when there was little such visibility.

“There wasn’t a lot of gay characters on television back then, and I was a closeted gay kid," Berlanti said. "It’s hard to describe how lonely that was at the time,”

The long decline of traditional broadcast TV at the Emmys continued, with zero wins between the four broadcast networks.

In the monologue that opened the ABC telecast, Dan Levy, who hosted with his father and “Schitt's Creek” co-star Eugene Levy, called the Emmys “broadcast TV’s biggest night for honoring movie stars on streaming services.”

Though other than Foster, movie stars didn't fare too well. Her fellow Oscar winners Streep and Robert Downey Jr. had been among the favorites, but came up empty.

“Robert Downey Jr. I have a poster of you in my house!” said Lamorne Morris, who beat Downey for best supporting actor in a limited series, said from the stage as he accepted his first Emmy.

The evening managed to meet many expectations but included several swerves like the win for “Hacks.”

“We were really shocked,” “Hacks co-creator Jen Statsky, who also won for writing, said after the show. ”We were truly, really surprised."

And “Shogun” got off to a quiet start, missing on early awards and not getting its first trophy until past the halfway point.

Still, it shattered the record for Emmys for one season previously held by the 2008 limited series “John Adams” in 2008. And its acting wins would have been hard to imagine before the series became an acclaimed phenomenon.

Sanada is a 63-year-old longtime screen star whose name is little known outside Japan, even if his face is through Hollywood films like “The Last Samurai” and “John Wick Chapter 4.” Sawai, 32, who was born in New Zealand and moved to Japan as a child, is significantly less known in the U.S. She wept when she accepted best actress.

"When you saw me cry on stage, it was probably the 12th time I cried today," Sawai said backstage. “It was just mixed emotions, wanting everyone to win all that. I may cry again now.”

“The Bear” would finish second with 11 overall Emmys, including guest acting wins at the Creative Arts ceremony for Jamie Lee Curtis and Jon Bernthal.

The Levys in their opening monologue mocked the show being in the comedy category.

“In honor of ‘The Bear’ we will be making no jokes,” Eugene Levy said, to laughs.

Elizabeth Debicki took best supporting actress in a drama for playing Princess Diana at the end of her life in the sixth and final season of “The Crown.”

“Playing this part, based on this unparalleled, incredible human being, has been my great privilege," Debicki said in her acceptance. "It’s been a gift.”

Several awards were presented by themed teams from TV history, including sitcom dads George Lopez, Damon Wayans and Jesse Tyler Ferguson and TV moms Meredith Baxter, Connie Britton, and Susan Kelechi Watson.

For more on this year’s Emmy Awards, visit: https://apnews.com/hub/emmy-awards