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AP-NORC/USAFacts poll: Republicans are more likely to trust Trump than official election results

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AP-NORC/USAFacts poll: Republicans are more likely to trust Trump than official election results
News

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AP-NORC/USAFacts poll: Republicans are more likely to trust Trump than official election results

2024-09-10 22:47 Last Updated At:22:50

CHICAGO (AP) — For Christopher Pugh, the 2020 election was a turning point.

He already distrusted the government. But as he watched Fox News coverage in the immediate aftermath of the election and read posts on Twitter, the social media platform now known as X, that distrust grew. He now believes the falsehood that the 2020 election was stolen and trusts few people other than former President Donald Trump to deliver him news about election results.

“I trust Donald Trump, not the government,” said the 38-year-old Republican from Gulfport, Mississippi. “That’s it.”

While most Americans trust government-certified election results at least a “moderate” amount, Republicans are more likely to trust Trump and his campaign, according to a new survey from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and USAFacts. Americans also are heading into the November election with concerns about misinformation. Many have low trust that the information they receive from presidential candidates — particularly Trump, but also Vice President Kamala Harris — is based on factual information.

Trump continues to lie about the outcome of the 2020 election, saying it was rigged against him even after dozens of his court challenges failed, reviews, recounts and audits in battleground states all affirmed President Joe Biden's win, and Trump's own attorney general said there was no evidence of widespread fraud. Despite no evidence of any widespread fraud, a 2023 poll found that most Republicans believe Biden was not legitimately elected president.

As Trump runs as the Republican candidate for the third time, he also is signaling that he can only lose through widespread fraud. Over the weekend he threatened to prosecute those “involved in unscrupulous behavior” this election should he win in November.

“The only way they can beat us is to cheat,” Trump said at a Las Vegas rally in June.

The recent findings from the AP-NORC survey show that a significant chunk of Trump's supporters might be more inclined to believe what he says about the upcoming election results than they are to trust government certifications of election results.

About two-thirds of Republicans trust Trump's campaign at least a moderate amount to provide accurate information about the results of the 2024 election, while only about half say the same about the official certifications of results, the survey found. By contrast, about 9 in 10 Democrats trust the government certification at least a moderate amount, and an overwhelming majority, 82%, also have at least a moderate amount of trust in Harris and her campaign.

Most Americans — around 7 in 10 — trust the government certifications of election results at least a moderate amount, according to the survey. Majorities also trust national and local TV news networks, as well as local or national newspapers, to provide accurate information about the outcome of this year's presidential election.

Danielle Almeida, a 45-year-old Democrat from Briarcliff Manor, New York, said she trusts government-certified election results and finds it alarming that some Americans don’t.

“In order to have a democracy, we have to trust the system and the results of our elections,” she said, adding that she thinks Trump “does not care about fact-checking because he believes his supporters don’t care, either.”

Americans are less likely to trust the campaigns overall — compared to sources such as the government and the media — but they have a higher level of trust in Harris and her campaign than in Trump and his campaign to provide accurate information about the outcome of the election. About half have at least a “moderate” amount of trust in Harris and her campaign. By contrast, about 4 in 10 have at least a moderate amount of trust in Trump and his campaign.

Some Republicans' distrust of election results started far before the 2020 election.

Richard Baum, 60, a conservative independent from Odessa, Texas, said his suspicions began in the 2000 U.S. presidential race between George W. Bush and Al Gore. After Bush won by a slim margin, “hanging chads” became an unlikely symbol of a disputed presidential election as small anomalies common in elections ballooned into major national controversies.

“There was some stuff there that didn’t seem right that made a lot of doubts in my mind about if you can trust the government,” Baum said.

Baum said he would trust election results only if voting took place on only a single day, early voting and mail-in ballots were banned and photo IDs were required at all polling places.

Many Americans doubt the veracity of both presidential candidates’ campaign messages, but skepticism about Trump’s campaign is higher, the USAFacts/AP-NORC survey found.

About 6 in 10 Americans believe that Trump’s campaign messages are “rarely” or “never” based on factual information, compared to 45% who say that about Harris’ campaign messages.

Many Americans also say it's hard to discern fact from fiction when it comes to the candidates. Slightly less than half of Americans say it’s “very easy” or “somewhat easy” to find factual information about the candidates and their positions, and only about one-third say it’s easy to know if what candidates are saying is true or not.

About 6 in 10 Americans say it’s easy for them to understand the difference between fact and opinion when it comes to information about the upcoming presidential election, but only about 4 in 10 say it’s easy to know whether information is true or not.

Americans are, however, more confident about factual information related to election logistics: About 7 in 10 Americans say it’s easy to find information about how to register to vote, and about 6 in 10 say it’s easy to find information about how to cast their ballot.

Michele Martin, a 56-year-old Pennsylvania Democrat, said she is “very concerned” about misinformation from politicians but finds it much easier to access basic voter information.

“It’s online. It’s mailed to you. It’s not hard to find,” she said.

About 8 in 10 Americans say that when it comes to getting information about the government, the spread of misinformation is a “major problem.” That is essentially unchanged from when the question was asked in 2020.

Lisa Kuda, a 57-year-old Republican from Palm Harbor, Florida, said she gets most of her news from social media and friends. She said she feels alienated from most news sources other than Fox News.

“Misinformation is everywhere,” she said. “It’s really difficult to find information about candidates.”

When Americans see news about the election and want to find out whether it’s true, 40% say they turn to an internet search first. Much smaller shares — around 1 in 10 for each — say they first check cable news, national TV news or social media.

Baum, from Texas, said he finds it difficult to easily access information about candidates because he believes social media platforms “are censoring conservative ideologies.” He also doesn’t trust Google and instead turns to conservative networks and podcasts such One America News and conservative podcasters to fact-check claims he’s unsure about.

Almeida’s process looks much different. She starts with a Google search and wades through multiple articles from news outlets such as The New York Times and NBC News, making note of any differences. If multiple articles have the same information, she said, she’s more likely to trust it.

“Misinformation is a huge problem,” she said. “You have to take time to do your research.”

Associated Press writer Ali Swenson in New York contributed to this report. Sanders reported from Washington.

The poll of 1,019 adults was conducted July 29-August 8, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

The Associated Press receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

FILE - President Donald Trump supporters gather with some signs claiming a stolen election outside the Philadelphia Convention Center as they await general election tabulation results, Nov. 6, 2020, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/John Minchillo, File)

FILE - President Donald Trump supporters gather with some signs claiming a stolen election outside the Philadelphia Convention Center as they await general election tabulation results, Nov. 6, 2020, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/John Minchillo, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday directing the United States to again withdraw from the landmark Paris climate agreement, dealing a blow to worldwide efforts to combat global warming and once again distancing the U.S. from its closest allies.

Trump's action, hours after he was sworn in to a second term, echoed his directive in 2017, when he announced that the U.S. would abandon the global Paris accord. The pact is aimed at limiting long-term global warming to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above pre-industrial levels or, failing that, keeping temperatures at least well below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above pre-industrial levels.

Trump also signed a letter to the United Nations indicating his intention to withdraw from the 2015 agreement, which allows nations to provide targets to cut their own emissions of greenhouse gases from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas. Those targets are supposed to become more stringent over time, with countries facing a February 2025 deadline for new individual plans. The outgoing Biden administration last month offered a plan to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by more than 60% by 2035.

Trump's order says the Paris accord is among a number of international agreements that don't reflect U.S. values and “steer American taxpayer dollars to countries that do not require, or merit, financial assistance in the interests of the American people."

Instead of joining a global agreement, “the United States’ successful track record of advancing both economic and environmental objectives should be a model for other countries,'' Trump said.

Laurence Tubiana, CEO of the European Climate Foundation and a key architect of the Paris accord, called the planned U.S. withdrawal unfortunate but said action to slow climate change “is stronger than any single country’s politics and policies."

The global context for Trump's action is “very different to 2017,'' Tubiana said Monday, adding that “there is unstoppable economic momentum behind the global transition, which the U.S has gained from and led but now risks forfeiting."

The International Energy Agency expects the global market for key clean energy technologies to triple to more than $2 trillion by 2035, she said.

“The impacts of the climate crisis are also worsening. The terrible wildfires in Los Angeles are the latest reminder that Americans, like everyone else, are affected by worsening climate change,” Tubiana said.

Gina McCarthy, who served as White House climate adviser under President Joe Biden, a Democrat, said that if Trump, a Republican, “truly wants America to lead the global economy, become energy independent and create good-paying American jobs," then he must “stay focused on growing our clean energy industry. Clean technologies are driving down energy costs for people all across our country."

The world is now long-term 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.3 degrees Celsius) above mid-1800s temperatures. Most but not all climate monitoring agencies said global temperatures last year passed the warming mark of 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, and all said it was the warmest year on record.

The withdrawal process from the Paris accord takes one year. Trump’s previous withdrawal took effect the day after the 2020 presidential election, which he lost to Biden.

While the first Trump-led withdrawal from the landmark U.N. agreement — adopted by 196 nations — shocked and angered nations across the globe, “not a single country followed the U.S. out the door,” said Alden Meyer, a longtime climate negotiations analyst with the European think tank E3G.

Instead, other nations renewed their commitment to slowing climate change, along with investors, businesses, governors, mayors and others in the U.S., Meyer and other experts said.

Still, they lamented the loss of U.S. leadership in global efforts to slow climate change, even as the world is on track to set yet another record hot year and has been lurching from drought to hurricane to flood to wildfire.

“Clearly America is not going to play the commanding role in helping solve the climate crisis, the greatest dilemma humans have ever encountered,″ said climate activist and writer Bill McKibben. “For the next few years the best we can hope is that Washington won’t manage to wreck the efforts of others.”

About half of Americans “somewhat” or “strongly” oppose U.S. action to withdraw from the climate accord, and even Republicans aren’t overwhelmingly in favor, according according to a poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Only about 2 in 10 U.S. adults “somewhat” or “strongly” in favor of withdrawing from the Paris agreement, while about one-quarter are neutral.

Much of the opposition to U.S. withdrawal comes from Democrats, but Republicans display some ambivalence as well. Slightly less than half of Republicans are in favor of withdrawing from the climate accord, while about 2 in 10 are opposed.

China several years ago passed the United States as the world's largest annual carbon dioxide emitting nation. The U.S. — the second biggest annual carbon polluting country — put 4.9 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide in the air in 2023, down 11% from a decade earlier, according to the scientists who track emissions for the Global Carbon Project.

But carbon dioxide lasts in the atmosphere for centuries, so the United States has put more of the heat-trapping gas that is now in the air than any other nation. The U.S. is responsible for nearly 22% of the carbon dioxide put in the atmosphere since 1950, according to Global Carbon Project.

While global efforts to fight climate change continued during Trump's first term, many experts worry that a second Trump term will be more damaging, with the United States withdrawing even further from climate efforts in a way that could cripple future presidents’ efforts. With Trump, who has dismissed climate change, in charge of the world’s leading economy, those experts fear other countries, especially China, could use it as an excuse to ease off their own efforts to curb carbon emissions.

Simon Stiell, the U.N. climate change executive secretary, held out hope that the U.S. would continue to embrace the global clean energy boom.

“Ignoring it only sends all that vast wealth to competitor economies, while climate disasters like droughts, wildfires and superstorms keep getting worse," Stiell said. “The door remains open to the Paris Agreement, and we welcome constructive engagement from any and all countries.”

Associated Press writer Linley Sanders contributed to this report.

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. The AP is solely responsible for all content. Find the AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

AES Indiana Petersburg Generating Station, a coal-fired power plant, operates in Petersburg, Ind., on Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2023. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel)

AES Indiana Petersburg Generating Station, a coal-fired power plant, operates in Petersburg, Ind., on Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2023. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel)

FILE - Wind turbines stretch across the horizon at dusk at the Spearville Wind Farm, Sept. 29, 2024, near Spearville, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel, File)

FILE - Wind turbines stretch across the horizon at dusk at the Spearville Wind Farm, Sept. 29, 2024, near Spearville, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel, File)

President Donald Trump gestures during the 60th Presidential Inauguration in the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, Monday, Jan. 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, Pool)

President Donald Trump gestures during the 60th Presidential Inauguration in the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, Monday, Jan. 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, Pool)

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