The US-Russia battle for influence in Africa plays out in Central African Republic

BANGUI, Central African Republic (AP) — Hours after Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin rebelled against his country’s top military leaders, his private army’s biggest client in Africa panicked, turning for help to his foe in the West.

Officials from Central African Republic, where some 1,500 of Prigozhin’s shadowy Wagner Group mercenaries were stationed, wrote a letter that day, requesting to “rapidly” arrange a meeting with a private U.S. security firm to discuss collaboration.

Dated June 23, 2023, the day Prigozhin launched the armed rebellion, the letter sparked a series of private meetings, culminating in a deal with the central African nation and Bancroft Global Development. That sparked backlash from Russian mercenaries, according to a dozen diplomats, locals, and analysts.

The tensions in Central African Republic are a window into a larger battle playing out across the continent as Moscow and Washington vie for influence.

The Russian mercenaries — using success in staving off rebels in this impoverished nation as a model for expansion — have long been accused by locals and rights groups of stripping natural resources such as minerals and timber and are linked to the torture and death of civilians. In the wake of Prigozhin’s rebellion and suspicious death in a plane crash, the Russians are recalibrating their Africa operations. The United States, which has been largely disengaged from the region for years, is attempting to maintain a presence and stymie Russian gains as it pushes African countries to distance themselves from the mercenaries.

U.S. officials blame Russia for anti-American sentiment in the region and say they’re trying to shift the narrative.

“If the U.S. can’t regain a foothold, it could give Russia greater economic and political leverage,” said Samuel Ramani of the Royal United Services Institute, a defense and security think tank. “If Russia loses Central African Republic, its flagship model on the continent, there could be a domino effect in other countries.”

In recent years, Russia has emerged as the security partner of choice for a growing number of governments in the region, displacing traditional allies such as France and the U.S.

Moscow aggressively expanded its military cooperation by using mercenaries like Wagner, who have operated in at least half a dozen countries since around 2017. They’re tasked with protecting African leaders and in some cases helping fight rebels and extremists.

They’re also plagued by their human rights record. Two years ago in Mali, Wagner and the army were accused of executing about 300 men — some suspected of being Islamist extremists, but most civilians — in what Human Rights Watch called the worst single atrocity reported in the country’s decade-long armed conflict. And in Central African Republic, mercenaries train the army on torture tactics, including how to cut hands, remove nails, throw fuel and burn people alive, according to watchdog The Sentry.

A soldier who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal confirmed torture tactics and told The Associated Press he saw mercenaries put a fellow soldier into a sweltering container as punishment. He said people could stay locked in containers for three weeks, with many dying inside.

Central African Republic was one of the first places the mercenaries entered. The country has been in conflict since 2013, when predominantly Muslim rebels seized power and forced the president from office. Six of the 14 armed groups that signed a 2019 peace deal later left the agreement. Locals and the government credited Wagner with fighting back rebels who tried to overtake Bangui, the capital, in 2021. The Russians soon expanded to Burkina Faso and Niger, and have ambitions for further growth.

Russia is refurbishing a military base some 50 miles (80 kilometers) from Bangui. Alexander Bikantov, Russia’s ambassador to Central African Republic, said the base will improve the country’s security.

Fidele Gouandjika, adviser to President Faustin-Archange Touadera, said the base aims to have 10,000 fighters by 2030 to engage with more African nations.

Some countries see Russia’s influence as a threat to their own, but conflict analysts say weakening it will be challenging if they won’t offer a similar force to pursue armed groups.

Wagner is steeped in Central African Republic's security system, and experts say that will likely prevent Touadera from easily diversifying security partners.

Touadera’s office didn't reply to written requests for comment for this story. His adviser to the country’s spy agency declined to be interviewed.

The U.S. had been pushing Central African Republic to find an alternative to Wagner for years. A December 2022 private meeting sought ways to improve security without the mercenaries but yielded little tangible progress, according to a U.S. official who is familiar with the talks and spoke on condition of anonymity due to the privacy of ongoing discussions.

“We never really got past the confidence-building steps,” he said. “Steps on how XYZ would replace Wagner were abstract, and the door remains open.”

The more assertive U.S. approach came as it faced new setbacks and tried to rework agreements in the region. Its troops left Chad and Niger, where they were no longer welcome.

Still, the State Department said in a statement early this year that it wasn’t involved in the decision to establish Bancroft Global Development’s presence in Central African Republic.

But Washington could deny such contracts if it wanted, said Sean McFate, a former contractor in Africa and author of “The New Rules of War.”

The U.S. has used private military companies to reduce American “boots on the ground” in Africa, McFate said, and companies like Bancroft have to play by Washington’s rules if they want future government work.

In response to AP questions, the U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity said it uses private contractors in Africa to help countries operate more effectively, with U.S. government oversight to ensure accountability. The official said the State Department has overseen Bancroft's work in Somalia but not Central African Republic or elsewhere.

Washington-based Bancroft is a nonprofit working in nine countries — five of them in Africa. Its longest-standing presence is in Somalia, where it’s operated for more than 15 years, in part training troops to fight the militant group al-Shabab.

Bancroft’s involvement in Central African Republic has been shrouded in secrecy since signs emerged of its presence last fall.

During an AP visit months later, rumors swirled about Bancroft’s activities, fueling speculation the U.S was bringing its own Wagner to oust Russia.

But according to Bancroft founder Michael Stock, the group entered at Bangui’s behest.

“Touadera felt his Russian partners were underperforming and distracted, focused too much on other lines of effort ranging from breweries to cultural centers, rather than confronting the rebels,” Stock told AP in his first interview since Bancroft began operating there.

Touadera thought diversifying partners would prompt Russia to get in line and give the Americans what they wanted, Stock said.

Stock received the letter from the presidency within a day of Prigozhin’s mutiny, and the two signed a deal in September, he said.

Fewer than 30 Bancroft personnel work there, Stock said, helping Central African Republic with intelligence systems, interagency cooperation and law enforcement.

Bancroft has invested some $1.4 million there, Stock said.

Much of Bancroft’s overall funding has come from U.S. and United Nations grants. From 2018 to 2020, it received more than $43 million from the U.S., according to audits required as part of tax forms.

Amal Ali, former U.S. intelligence analyst, is among critics who say that despite its yearslong presence in Somalia, Bancroft hasn’t contributed to any real eradication of terrorism.

Stock dismissed such comments as uninformed and said the Somali and U.S. governments "agree Bancroft has done a great deal to damaging illegal armed groups and developing the capacity of the government to perform its national defense functions professionally.”

Rights groups say a lack of transparency about Bancroft’s operations has fostered an atmosphere of distrust in a country already rampant with armed actors. Wagner, a U.N. peacekeeping mission and Rwandan troops are all on the ground to try to quell violence.

“Operating in a vague and nontransparent way in the Central African Republic only leads to suspicion,” said Lewis Mudge, of Human Rights Watch.

Stock defended Bancroft’s work and policies. “It is perfectly normal for a government not to publicize how it is defending the people and the state,” he told AP.

Last fall, as reports of possible collaboration with Bancroft emerged, Stock said he positioned a staff member at a hotel in Bangui to wait for Russia’s reaction.

“We expected Russia to freak out, so for our lone staff member in Bangui we chose a Russian speaker, who was tasked to do nothing but sit in the hotel garden reading a book all day, waiting for Russians to show whether they wanted to be cooperative, hostile, or ignore us,” Stock said.

Stock said that weeks later, in January, the employee was detained and questioned for hours by Russian forces and released only when Touadera stepped in.

Officials in both Central African Republic and Russia didn't respond to requests for comment on any such incident. Bikantov, Russia’s ambassador to Central African Republic, has said Bancroft’s presence had no effect on cooperation with Russia’s military.

In the following months, aggression toward Americans and U.S. entities continued. Several American citizens were detained and had their passports confiscated, a diplomat who dealt with their cases said on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t allowed to speak to reporters. Rare anti-American protests erupted outside the U.S. embassy in Bangui, and local youths formed the Committee to Investigate U.S. Activities to monitor Bancroft’s movements.

Gouandjika, the presidential adviser, said the government has no problem with Americans and those denied entry lacked proper paperwork.

As the U.S. and Russia jockey for power, African governments say they want to make their own choices.

Central African Republic officials approached Bancroft, which shows that these governments haven’t become Russian puppets, said Jack Margolin, an expert on private military companies.

But, he added, Russia’s reaction to Bancroft could hurt Moscow’s standing with other nations.

After Prigozhin’s death, Russia moved quickly to take control of Wagner’s assets, and the defense ministry told countries where Wagner operated that it would take over. The country and its military intelligence arm have taken a more direct role in Africa operations, deploying more official detachments from its army.

Russia is trying to rebrand the mercenaries, creating Africa Corps, a parallel group that could absorb Wagner, said John Lechner, a Wagner expert.

In Central African Republic, it’s still unclear how much sway the Russian state has with the mercenaries, who are beloved by many and embedded in society, brewing beer and visiting markets. Still, they largely keep to themselves, walking through streets with faces covered and driving in unmarked cars.

For many, Prigozhin was a national hero. Standing at a downtown monument of Russian soldiers, people lay flowers at its feet paying respects, a year after his death.

For most people here, there’s little interest in squabbles among foreign nations.

“There are problems between the Americans and Russians, but that doesn’t matter to us,” said Jean Louis Yet, who works at Bangui’s market. “We are here working, trying our best to make a living.

“All we want is security.”

AP reporters James Pollard in New York; Michael Biesecker in Washington; Dasha Litvinova in Tallinn, Estonia; and Jean Fernand Koena in Central African Republic contributed to this report.

People walk on the streets in Bangui, Central African Republic, on March 11, 2024. (AP Photo/Sam Mednick)

Jean Louis Yet sips from a cup at the market in Bangui, Central African Republic, on March 11, 2024. (AP Photo/Sam Mednick)

FILE - Supporters of Niger's ruling junta hold a Russian flag at the start of a protest called to fight for the country's freedom and push back against foreign interference in Niamey, Niger, on Aug. 3, 2023. (AP Photo/Sam Mednick, File)

FILE - This undated photograph provided by the French military shows three Russian mercenaries in northern Mali. (French Army via AP, File)

A woman gets her hair braided on the streets of Bangui, Central African Republic, on March 11, 2024. (AP Photo/Sam Mednick)

A woman prepares plantains to sell in the market in Bangui, Central African Republic, on March 11, 2024. (AP Photo/Sam Mednick)

A woman sells vegetables at a market in Bangui, Central African Republic, on March 11, 2024. (AP Photo/Sam Mednick)

Vegetables are displayed at a market in Bangui, Central African Republic, on March 11, 2024. (AP Photo/Sam Mednick)

FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Central African Republic President Faustin-Archange Тouadera walk during their meeting on the sideline of the Russia Africa Summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, Friday, July 28, 2023. (Artyom Geodakyan/TASS Host Photo Agency Pool Photo via AP, File)

A satellite image taken on Sept. 25, 2022, shows what Central African Republic says will be a refurbished base for Russian soldiers. The area is approximately 50 miles (80 km) from the capital, and an adviser to President Faustin-Archange Touadera said it aims to have 10,000 Russian soldiers by 2030. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)

FILE - Central African Army Forces (FACA) cadets display a fake rocket launcher on Jan. 26, 2014, in Jean Bedel Bocassa's Berengo palace near Pissa, some 80kms (45 miles) south west of Bangui, Central African Republic. Ten years on, Russia is said to be helping to refurbish the site as a military base. (AP Photo/Jerome Delay, File)

An arial view of Bangui, Central African Republic, is seen on March. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Sam Mednick)

FILE - Nigeriens, some holding Russian flags, participate in a march called by supporters of coup leader Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani in Niamey, Niger, on July 30, 2023. (AP Photo/Sam Mednick, File)

FILE - This undated photograph handed out by French military shows Russian mercenaries boarding a helicopter in northern Mali. (French Army via AP, File)

Flowers are laid at the statue of Russian mercenaries as a tribute to the late Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in Bangui, Central African Republic, on March. 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Sam Mednick)

SRINAGAR, India (AP) — In Indian-controlled Kashmir, many people boycotted elections for decades in protest against Indian rule. But in the run-up to the local election beginning Wednesday, many are willing to buck that trend and use their vote to deny Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party the power to form a local government in the disputed region.

The vote is the first in a decade, and the first since Modi’s Hindu nationalist government in 2019 scrapped the Muslim-majority region’s special status and downgraded the former state to a federally governed territory. The move — which largely resonated in India and among Modi supporters — was mostly opposed in the region as an assault on its identity and autonomy.

“Boycotts will not work in this election,” said Abdul Rashid, a resident in southern Kashmir’s Shangus village. “There is a desperate need to end the onslaught of changes coming from there (India).”

The election will allow residents to have their own truncated government and a local parliament called an assembly, instead of remaining under New Delhi’s direct rule. The region’s last assembly election was held in 2014, after which Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party for the first time ruled the region in a coalition with the local Peoples Democratic Party.

But the government collapsed in 2018 after BJP withdrew from the coalition. Polls in the past have been marked with violence, boycotts and vote-rigging, even though India called them a victory over separatism.

This time, New Delhi says the polls are ushering in democracy after more than three decades of strife. However, many locals see the vote as an opportunity not only to elect their own representatives but also to register their protest against the 2019 changes.

Polling will be held in three phases. The second and third phases are scheduled for Sept. 25 and Oct. 1. Votes will be counted on Oct. 8, with results expected that day.

Kashmir is divided between nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan. Since 1947, the neighbors have fought two wars over its control, after British rule of the subcontinent ended with the creation of the two countries. Both claim the Himalayan territory in its entirety.

In 2019, the Indian-controlled part of the region was divided into two territories, Ladakh and Jammu-Kashmir, ruled directly by New Delhi. The region has been on edge since it lost its flag, criminal code, constitution and inherited protections on land and jobs.

Multiple pro-India Kashmiri parties, many of whose leaders were among thousands jailed in 2019, are contesting the election, promising to reverse those changes. Some lower-rung separatist leaders, who in the past dismissed polls as illegitimate exercises under military occupation, are also running for office as independent candidates.

India’s main opposition Congress party, which favors restoration of the region’s statehood, has formed an alliance with the National Conference, the region’s largest party. Modi’s BJP has a strong political base in Hindu-dominated areas of Jammu that largely favor the 2019 changes but is weak in the Kashmir Valley, the heartland of anti-India rebellion.

“Our main concern is governance through local representatives. It will be good for us if the BJP forms the government here as it’s already in power at the center,” said Chuni Lal, a shopkeeper in Jammu city.

The vote will see a limited transition of power from New Delhi to the local assembly, with a chief minister at the top heading a council of ministers. But Kashmir will continue to be a “Union Territory” — a region directly controlled by the federal government — with India’s Parliament remaining its main legislator.

The elected government will have partial control over areas like education, culture and taxation but not over the police. Kashmir’s statehood must be restored for the new government to have powers similar to other states in India. However, it will not have the special powers it enjoyed before the 2019 changes.

Last year, India’s Supreme Court endorsed the government’s 2019 changes but ordered New Delhi to conduct local polls by the end of September and restore Kashmir’s statehood. Modi’s government has promised to restore statehood after the polls but has not specified a timeline.

Elections in Indian-held Kashmir have remained a sensitive issue. Many believe they have been rigged multiple times in favor of local politicians who subsequently became India’s regional enforcers, used to incrementally dilute laws that offered Kashmir a special status and legitimize New Delhi’s militaristic policies.

In the mid-1980s, the region’s dissident political groups emerged as a formidable force against Kashmir’s pro-India political elite but lost the 1987 election widely believed to have been rigged. A public backlash followed, with some young activists taking up arms and demanding a united Kashmir, either under Pakistani rule or independent of both.

India insists the insurgency is Pakistan-sponsored terrorism, a charge Islamabad denies. Tens of thousands of people have been killed in the fighting, which most Kashmiri Muslims consider a legitimate freedom struggle.

Noor Ahmed Baba, a political scientist, said the outcome of the polls “is not going to change the dynamics of the Kashmir dispute” since it will end with a largely powerless legislature, but will be crucial for optics.

“If local parties win, it is going to put some pressure on the central government and perhaps delegitimize from a democratic perspective what has been done to Kashmir. But a BJP win can allow the party to consolidate and validate 2019 changes in the local legislature,” Baba said.

India’s ruling BJP is not officially aligned with any local party, but many politicians believe it is tacitly supporting some parties and independent candidates who privately agree with its stances.

The National Conference party says Modi’s BJP is trying to manipulate the election through independent candidates. “Their (BJP’s) concerted effort is to divide the vote in Kashmir,” said Tanvir Sadiq, a candidate from the National Conference.

The BJP’s national secretary, meanwhile, says his party’s former ally, the Peoples Democratic Party, and the National Conference are being supported by former militants. Ram Madhav said at a recent rally that they want to return the region to its “trouble-filled days.”

For residents whose civil liberties have been curbed, the election is also a chance to choose representatives they hope will address their main issues.

Many say that while the election won’t solve the dispute over Kashmir, it will give them a rare window to express their frustration with Indian control.

“We need some relief and end of bureaucratic rule here,” said Rafiq Ahmed, a taxi driver in the region’s main city of Srinagar.

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party workers attend a rally, ahead of Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections in Jammu, India, Saturday Sep.7, 2024.(AP Photo/Channi Anand, File)

Former union minster and star campaigner of BJP Anurag Thakur and state in charge Ram Madhav wave to supporters during a campaign rally, after party candidates filed the nomination papers for the upcoming Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections at Nagrota outskirts of Jammu, India, Thursday, Sep.12, 2024.(AP Photo/Channi Anand, File)

Supporters of India's opposition Congress party, wave during an election rally at Dooru some 78 kilometers (49 miles) south of Srinagar, Indian controlled Kashmir,Wednesday, Sept. 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Mukhtar Khan, File)

Supporters of Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) leader Sheikh Abdul Rashid, also known as Engineer Rashid, attend a public rally at Baramulla, some 55 kilometers (34 miles) north of Srinagar, Indian controlled Kashmir, Sept. 12, 2024. (AP Photo/Mukhtar Khan, File)

Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) leader Sheikh Abdul Rashid, also known as Engineer Rashid, speaks during a public rally at Baramulla, some 55 kilometers (34 miles) north of Srinagar, Indian controlled Kashmir, Sept. 12, 2024. (AP Photo/Mukhtar Khan, File)

Policemen stop supporters of National Conference Party from accompanying their candidate during the filing of nomination papers for the upcoming Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections in Jammu, India, Sept.10, 2024. (AP Photo/Channi Anand, File)

Supporters listen as India's opposition Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi, unseen, speaks during an election rally at Dooru some 78 kilometers south of Srinagar, Indian controlled Kashmir, Wednesday, Sept. 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Mukhtar Khan, FILE)

Supporters of India's opposition Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi, shout slogans during an election rally at Dooru, some 78 kilometers south of Srinagar, Indian controlled Kashmir, Sept. 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Mukhtar Khan, File)

People watch from a window during a road show of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Arif Laigroo, in Srinagar, Indian-controlled Kashmir Sunday, Sept. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Mukhtar Khan, File)

National Conference (NC) President Farooq Abdullah, center, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) leader Mehbooba Mufti, second right, and other leaders sit during an all parties meeting on restoration of the special status that was stripped last year from Indian-administered Kashmir, in Srinagar, India. (AP Photo/Mukhtar Khan, File)

A child looks on as Indian policemen frisk Kashmiri pedestrians during a surprise security check in Srinagar, Indian controlled Kashmir, Monday, Jan. 9, 2023. (AP Photo/Mukhtar Khan, File)

Indian security forces walk past Indian flags and flags of India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as a motorcycle rally by BJP youth wing to the Kargil War Memorial passes through Srinagar, Indian controlled Kashmir, Monday, July 25, 2022. (AP Photo/Mukhtar Khan, File)

Kashmiris shout slogans during a protest after Friday prayers against the abrogation of article 370, on the outskirts of Srinagar, Indian controlled Kashmir, Friday, Oct. 4, 2019.(AP Photo/ Dar Yasin, File)

A masked protester throws stone at Indian security forces during a protest after Eid prayers in Srinagar, Indian controlled Kashmir, Saturday, June 16, 2018. (AP Photo/Dar Yasin, File)

Kashmiris sit outside closed shops painted with graffiti during a curfew in central Srinagar, India, Thursday, Sept. 16, 2010. (AP Photo/Dar Yasin, File)