Hezbollah pager explosions could fuel major escalation of conflict: analysis

The wave of pager explosions in Lebanon on Tuesday could fuel a major escalation of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, according to media analysis.

Eight people were killed, and over 2,800 others, including Hezbollah members, were wounded on Tuesday in different areas of Lebanon as their pagers exploded, said Lebanese Health Minister Firas Abiad.

In a statement, Hezbollah said it is conducting security and scientific investigations to identify the reasons behind these explosions, adding that the group is "at the highest level of readiness to defend Lebanon and its people"

In a separate statement, the Shiite group blamed Israel for "this criminal attack", vowing to retaliate.

Israel has yet to comment on Tuesday's blasts. According to media reports, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant held a security assessment meeting at the HaKirya military base in Tel Aviv on Tuesday to address the implications of the explosions.

China Media Group reporter Zhao Bing in Jerusalem reported later on Tuesday on what may have caused the pager explosions and the possible impact of the attack, citing reports from media outlets in the region.

"Regarding the method of the attack, the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation and Channel 12 and other media outlets, citing the analyses of professionals, believe that the wave of explosions may be caused in two ways. One is to use hacking methods to carry out large-scale cyber attacks on thousands of pagers at the same time, resulting in its lithium battery short circuit or overload, thereby causing an explosion. The other is to place explosives in the pagers in advance. Qatar's Al Jazeera quoted a source from the Lebanese security department as saying that the batch of pagers that exploded were intercepted by Israel's intelligence service, the Mossad, five months ago before being delivered to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and a trace amount of explosives of less than 20 grams were placed inside the pagers. However, as of now, it is difficult to fully confirm the above reports," Zhao said.

"It is worth noting that the attack occurred at a sensitive time when Israel issued a comprehensive threat to Hezbollah and the conflict may be significantly escalated. Late at night on Sept. 16, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chaired a government security cabinet meeting and decided to make 'the return of evacuees from northern Israel to their homes' as the fourth military goal of the Israeli government. This also means that Israel has officially incorporated the military strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon into its military strategy that has been going on for nearly a year, and intends to proactively escalate the conflict," Zhao said.

"According to Israeli media analysis, in this case, if Israel launched this attack, its purpose may be, first, to send a clear signal to Hezbollah in Lebanon that Israel will take any possible means to attack it and will continue to escalate pressure; second, to prevent and disrupt Hezbollah's possible attacks on Israel; third, to take advantage of the opportunity when Hezbollah is in chaos or even partially paralyzed to launch a large-scale military operation against it. However, the media also believes that large-scale military operations will not restore security in northern Israel, but will further intensify the conflict and plunge the entire region into a quagmire of long-term war," Zhao said.

"Local media reported that in response to possible counterattacks by Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israel's Haifa Port, Ben Gurion International Airport and other important infrastructure are ready to launch emergency plans. And many large airlines such as Air France and Lufthansa have announced that all flights scheduled to fly to Israel on Wednesday would be canceled," Zhao said.

Cross-border fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has been ongoing since Oct. 8, 2023, when the Israeli-Palestinian conflict erupted. Hezbollah stated that its attacks on Israel were intended to support Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

Hezbollah pager explosions could feul major escalation of conflict: analysis

Hezbollah pager explosions could feul major escalation of conflict: analysis

The universal "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the United States signals a decline in the U.S. economic dominance and dollar hegemony, as the country is attempting to extract excessive financial benefits from its trading partners, according to economists, who warn the Trump administration is playing a "dangerous game".

U.S. President Donald Trump last week signed an executive order on the so-called "reciprocal tariffs," imposing a 10-percent "minimum baseline tariff" before unveiling higher rates on certain trading partners. The policy sent shockwaves throughout the global economy and triggered panic on financial markets, with analysts warning of significant risks and dire economic consequences.

In an interview with the China Global Television Network (CGTN), Hong Hao, chief economist of the GROW Investment Group, a Shanghai-based hedge fund, said the tariffs reflect Trump's strategy to extract economic benefits from trading partners, particularly viewing China as a significant competitor. "Trump really believes that the trade terms with the trading partners have been unfair to the U.S., and as a result, the U.S. manufacturing sector has been hollowed out. Therefore, the U.S. is paying an excessive price for globalization, and now, it's time to pay back. I think, from this angle, he is trying to extract economic rent from its trading partners, and also he is trying to see China as one of the major U.S. rivals at this juncture. So, I think, as a result, he is playing a very dangerous game. And, as you can see, it's political theater in the sense that he is trying to dramatize the extreme pressure, so that he can get excessive rent from the opponent," he said

Trump's unilateral imposition of tariffs has eroded global confidence in the U.S. and its dollar's status, leading many to state that the American hegemony may not persist, according to Josef Gregory Mahoney, a professor of politics and international relations at East China Normal University.

"The U.S. economy is at an inflection point. There is a moment where the previous strategies being used to sustain American hegemony were no longer working. And, it's only a matter of time before the U.S. position erodes, given the fact that it's been a house of cards built on the dollar supremacy. And a lot of people don't see that as having a brighter future. This has moved past the theater stage and has moved really directly into one in which no one really has confidence in the U.S. anymore. No one has confidence in the dollar. No one has confidence in the U.S. being committed to the multilateral system, to global trade and so forth and so on," he said.

Trump playing "dangerous game" as tariff measures signal decline in U.S. dollar hegemony: economists