The exploding device attacks dealt a major but not crippling blow to Hezbollah, analysts say

BEIRUT (AP) — The waves of remotely triggered explosions that hit pagers and walkie-talkies carried by Hezbollah members in grocery stores, on streets and at a funeral procession this week made for an eerie and shocking spectacle.

Analysts said Hezbollah will be able to regroup militarily and find communications workarounds after the attack, but the psychological effects will likely run deep.

The explosions — widely blamed on Israel, which has neither confirmed nor denied involvement — killed at least 37 people, including two children, wounded more than 3,000 and deeply unsettled even Lebanese who have no Hezbollah affiliation.

The detonating devices hit workers in Hezbollah’s civilian institutions, including its health care and media operations, as well as fighters, dealing a blow to the militant group's operations beyond the battlefield. It is not clear how many civilians with no link to Hezbollah were injured.

The attacks also exposed the weaknesses in the low-tech communications system the group had turned to in an attempt to avoid Israeli surveillance of cellphones.

Retired Lebanese army Gen. Elias Hanna described the attacks as the “Pearl Harbor or 9/11 of Hezbollah.”

Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center think tank who researches Hezbollah, said that because the blasts hit people across the group’s institutions, the attack was “like a sword in the guts of the organization.” Hundreds of people were severely wounded, including many who lost eyes or hands.

“It will require time to heal and replace those who were targeted,” he said.

But Hage Ali and other analysts agreed that the loss of manpower is not a crippling blow. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has said the group’s fighting force numbers more than 100,000, meaning that the attack — as dramatic as it was — would have put only a small percentage of its militants out of commission even if all those wounded and killed were fighters.

Qassim Qassir, a Lebanese analyst close to Hezbollah, said the detonating devices actually struck mostly civilian workers within the group and not military or security officials, which has allowed it to contain the impacts on its war effort.

Hezbollah, which is Lebanon’s strongest armed force, has exchanged fire with Israel’s military almost daily since Oct. 8, the day after a deadly Hamas-led assault in southern Israel triggered a massive Israeli counteroffensive and the ongoing war in Gaza.

Since then, hundreds have been killed in strikes in Lebanon and dozens in Israel, while tens of thousands on each side of the border have been displaced. Hezbollah said its strikes are in support of its ally, Hamas, and that it will halt its attacks if a cease-fire is implemented in Gaza.

Speaking Thursday, Nasrallah acknowledged that the pager and walkie-talkie attacks represented a “severe blow,” but he vowed that the group would emerge stronger than before.

Hezbollah continued to launch rockets over the border Wednesday and Thursday after the pager and walkie-talkie attacks, including one that killed two Israeli soldiers.

The impacts on Hezbollah’s communications network are likely to be more disruptive than the human loss.

“Telecommunications is the nerve of military operations and communications,” said retired Lebanese army Gen. Naji Malaeb, an expert on security affairs. A delay in communication could spell disaster, he said.

In February, Nasrallah warned members not to carry cellphones, which he said could be used to track them and monitor their communications.

But long before that, Hezbollah relied on pagers and its own private fiber-optic landline network to avoid the monitoring of its communications.

The pagers that detonated Tuesday were a new model the group recently began using. It appears that small quantities of explosives had been implanted in the devices at some stage in the manufacturing or shipping process and then remotely detonated.

Hanna said the group might rely more heavily on its landline network — which Israel has attempted to tap into on multiple occasions — going forward, or on even lower-tech solutions such as hand-delivered letters.

“Maybe you have to go back to human communication, the postman,” he said. “This is what is really helping (Hamas leader) Yahya Sinwar not to be targeted” in his hiding spot in Gaza.

Orna Mizrahi, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based think tank Institute for National Security Studies and former intelligence analyst for the Israeli military and prime minister’s office, said losing the ability to communicate through pagers is a “dramatic blow,” but the militant group has other communication methods and will rebuild their communication network.

The bigger damage to Hezbollah was psychological, she said.

“It’s the humiliation of having such an operation, it shows how much the organization is exposed to the Israeli intelligence,” she said.

Amal Saad, a lecturer in politics and international relations at Cardiff University in Wales who researches Hezbollah, said much of the attack's impact was the “demoralization and the fear” it sowed.

“It’s not just a security breach against the military," she said. "Hezbollah’s entire society is going to be extremely concerned because everything is liable now to being hacked and rigged.”

The group will “be rethinking many things now, not just the pagers," Saad said.

Associated Press reporter Melanie Lidman in Jerusalem contributed to this report.

Israelis take cover next to a shelter as a siren sounds a warning of incoming rockets fired from Lebanon, in Nahariya, northern Israel, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Baz Ratner)

Hezbollah members attend the funeral of two of their comrades who were killed on Wednesday when a handheld device exploded, during a funeral procession in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Hezbollah members carry the coffins of two of their comrades who were killed on Wednesday when a handheld device exploded, during a funeral procession in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Hezbollah members carry the coffins of two of their comrades who were killed on Wednesday when a handheld device exploded, during a funeral procession in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

People watch the speech of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on a tv screen as they sit in a cafe in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

Women sit in a cemetery as they visit the graves of killed Hezbollah members in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Hezbollah members mourn over the coffins of two of their comrades who were killed on Wednesday when a handheld device exploded, during a funeral procession in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

BERLIN, Vt. (AP) — This fall, hundreds of the most vulnerable people experiencing homelessness in Vermont must leave state-funded motel rooms where they’ve been living as the state winds down its pandemic-era motel voucher program. The move is prompting outcry from municipal leaders and advocates who say many don't have a place to go.

The biggest exodus — about 230 households — is expected Thursday when they reach a new 80-day limit stay in the motel rooms that the Legislature imposed starting in July. Those affected include families, people with disabilities, older individuals, those who are pregnant, and people who have experienced domestic violence or a natural disaster such as a fire or a flood.

A new 1,110-room cap on the number of motel rooms the state can use to house those people in the warmer months from April through November also kicked in Sunday. Some households who still haven't used up their 80 days have been denied rooms because there's no space, advocates say.

In the central Vermont area of the cities of Montpelier and Barre, around 100 to 140 families will be leaving motels this fall. The state estimates that about 1,000 households will be out of motels statewide, said Jen Armbrister, outreach case manager for the Good Samaritan Haven in Barre.

Shelters in the area are consistently full and advocates are racing to find housing in a state with a housing crisis that had the second highest per capita rate of homelessness in the country in 2023, according to an assessment from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

“I can’t tell you how many families I’ve sat down with and said I really pray that I would never have to have this conversation with you but we don’t have any solutions,” Armbrister said. She's had to tell them that if they don’t have somewhere to go, the best she’s able to do is put them on a list to get a tent and sleeping bags. But there's nowhere nearby to camp.

The households will be eligible for motel housing again on Dec. 1 as winter sets in. But until then, some don’t know where they will live.

Nova and Bruce Jewett must leave the Hilltop Inn in Berlin on Oct. 1. Bruce Jewett, 63, is a disabled veteran who has cancer and can't camp because of a back injury.

The couple have been looking for housing but say there's none available. They're always put on hold, or told that someone else is looking at a place or that it's been rented, he said.

“It bothers me because I'm a veteran and I don't believe that veterans should be having to deal with this,” he said.

Heidi Wright, 50, must leave the Budget Inn in Barre on Sept. 28. She has seizures, as well as depression, anxiety and emphysema, and she said doctors have talked about putting in a pacemaker.

“My hands are tied ... and I don't know what I'm going to do,” she said.

People are getting desperate, said Armbrister, who met with Wright on Wednesday and told her she would do everything she can to keep her housed.

"There’s no solutions. We’re meeting as much as we possibly can with different organizations, and teams to try to figure this out but nothing’s come up yet for a solution," Armbrister said. “It’s really super sad. It’s traumatic.”

On Wednesday, leaders from more than a dozen Vermont cities and towns said they are overwhelmed by the growing rate of homelessness in their communities and called on state government to do more to address the issue and problems associated with it.

“Our first responders can't keep up with the calls, our residents are reluctant to use public spaces, our limited staff are cleaning up unsanitary messes, volunteers are exhausted, and our nonprofit partners are at a break point,” said Winooski Mayor Kristine Lott.

The state has been attempting to wean itself off the hotel-motel program for several years now without much success, Republican Gov. Phil Scott said at his weekly news conference on Wednesday.

“It's just not sustainable on a long-term basis,” he said. “It's a difficult situation. (I) understand the point of view of the municipalities as well, but we don't have the resources either and so we're in the position we're at,” Scott said.

The long-term approach is trying to establish more shelters, he said, although he added that when the state set up emergency shelters last spring during another reduction to the motel program, few people used them.

While Vermont is working to create more housing, it can't come soon enough.

A shortage of apartments for rent in Vermont contributed to a tripling of the number of Vermonters experiencing homelessness between 2019 and 2023, according to a recent state housing report. City and town leaders say the number of people experiencing homelessness is more than 3,400, up from the 1,100 the state reported in 2020.

Vermont has a rental vacancy rate of just 3% statewide, and it's an estimated 1% in Chittenden County, which includes Vermont’s largest city of Burlington and is the state’s most populous county.

To meet demand, house people experiencing homelessness, normalize vacancy rates and replace homes lost through flooding and other causes, the state will need to create 24,000 to 36,000 homes between 2025 and 2029, according to the most recent Vermont Housing Needs Assessment.

Much of the Agency of Human Services staff effort goes into helping people find housing but the state doesn't have enough units, said Agency Secretary Jenney Samuelson.

“While we can’t afford this program, what we really need to be focused on is building housing units that the individuals we serve can afford and expanding that significantly," she said.

Bruce and Nova Jewett, who are experiencing homelessness, sit at the Hilltop Inn in Berlin, Vt., on Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024, where they have been living and will have to leave by Oct. 1, 2024. (AP Photo/Lisa Rathke)

Heidi Wright, right, who is experiencing homelessness and must leave her state-funded motel room by Sept. 28, 2024, talks to Jen Armbrister, an outreach case manager for the Good Samaritan Haven in Barre, Vt., on Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Lisa Rathke)

Bruce and Nova Jewett, who are experiencing homelessness, sit at the Hilltop Inn in Berlin, Vt., on Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024, where they have been living and will have to leave by Oct. 1, 2024. (AP Photo/Lisa Rathke)

Bruce and Nova Jewett, who are experiencing homelessness, sit at the Hilltop Inn in Berlin, Vt., on Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024, where they have been living and will have to leave by Oct. 1, 2024. (AP Photo/Lisa Rathke)

Heidi Wright, right, who is experiencing homelessness and must leave her state-funded motel room by Sept. 28, 2024, talks to Jen Armbrister, an outreach case manager for the Good Samaritan Haven in Barre, Vt., on Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Lisa Rathke)

Bruce and Nova Jewett, who are experiencing homelessness, sit at the Hilltop Inn in Berlin, Vt., on Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024, where they have been living and will have to leave by Oct. 1, 2024. (AP Photo/Lisa Rathke)