Deadly flooding in Central Europe made twice as likely by climate change

WASHINGTON (AP) — Human-caused climate change doubled the likelihood and intensified the heavy rains that led to devastating flooding in Central Europe earlier this month, a new flash study found.

Torrential rain in mid-September from Storm Boris pummeled a large part of central Europe, including Romania, Poland, Czechia, Austria, Hungary, Slovakia and Germany, and caused widespread damage. The floods killed 24 people, damaged bridges, submerged cars, left towns without power and in need of significant infrastructure repairs.

The severe four-day rainfall was “by far” the heaviest ever recorded in Central Europe and twice as likely because of warming from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas, World Weather Attribution, a collection of scientists that run rapid climate attribution studies, said Wednesday from Europe. Climate change also made the rains between 7% and 20% more intense, the study found.

“Yet again, these floods highlight the devastating results of fossil fuel-driven warming," said Joyce Kimutai, the study's lead author and a climate researcher at Imperial College, London.

To test the influence of human-caused climate change, the team of scientists analyzed weather data and used climate models to compare how such events have changed since cooler preindustrial times to today. Such models simulate a world without the current 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) of global warming since preindustrial times, and see how likely a rainfall event that severe would be in such a world.

The study analyzed four-day rainfall events, focusing on the countries that felt severe impacts.

Though the rapid study hasn't been peer-reviewed, it follows scientifically accepted techniques.

“In any climate, you would expect to occasionally see records broken," said Friederike Otto, an Imperial College, London, climate scientist who coordinates the attribution study team. But, “to see records being broken by such large margins, that is really the fingerprint of climate change. And that is only something that we see in a warming world.”

Some of the most severe impacts were felt in the Polish-Czech border region and Austria, mainly in urban areas along major rivers. The study noted that the death toll from this month's flooding was considerably lower than during catastrophic floods in the region in 1997 and 2002. Still, infrastructure and emergency management systems were overwhelmed in many cases and will require billions of euros to fix.

Last week, European Union chief Ursula von der Leyen pledged billions of euros in aid for countries that suffered damage to infrastructure and housing from the floods.

The World Weather Attribution study also warned that in a world with even more warming — specifically 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since preindustrial times, the likelihood of ferocious four-day storms would grow by 50% compared to current levels. Such storms would grow in intensity, too, the authors found.

The heavy rainfall across Central Europe was caused by what's known as a “Vb depression” that forms when cold polar air flows from the north over the Alps and meets warm air from Southern Europe. The study's authors found no observable change in the number of similar Vb depressions since the 1950s.

The World Weather Attribution group launched in 2015 largely due to frustration that it took so long to determine whether climate change was behind an extreme weather event. Studies like theirs, within attribution science, use real-world weather observations and computer modeling to determine the likelihood of a particular happening before and after climate change, and whether global warming affected its intensity.

Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

FILE - Firefighters walk through a flooded road of Jesenik, Czech Republic, Sept. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Petr David Josek, File)

FILE - Spectators look at the partially collapsed Carolabrucke bridge, over the Elbe, which is rising rapidly due floodwaters, in front of the state chancellery in Dresden, Germany, Sept. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)

FILE - A man throws damaged goods and furniture off a house as residents return to clean up after recent floods in Mikulovice, Czech Republic, Sept. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Petr David Josek, File)

FILE - A resident waits to be evacuated from his flooded house in Jesenik, Czech Republic, Sept. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Petr David Josek, File)

FILE - Women save a cat from floods in Szentendre, near Budapest, Hungary, Sept. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Denes Erdos)

FILE - A resident paddles through a flooded street in Bohumin, Czech Republic, Sept. 17, 2024. (AP Photo/Darko Bandic, File)

FILE - Floodwater surrounds a neighborhood in Bohumin, Czech Republic, Sept. 17, 2024. (AP Photo/Darko Bandic, File)

FILE - A resident is evacuated from her flooded house in Jesenik, Czech Republic, Sept. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Petr David Josek, File)

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Bob Marley's musical legacy of harmony and peace has hit the road with his sons bringing their late father's timeless message to life in a multi-city tour.

The reggae giant's footsteps are being filled by his five sons — Ziggy, Stephen, Julian, Ky-Mani and Damian — during the Marley Brothers: The Legacy Tour. It's the first time the siblings have performed together on tour in two decades.

Marley's sons are honoring his work, performing about 30 of their father's songs including massive hits like “No Woman, No Cry," “Could You Be Loved,” “Is This Love” and “Three Little Birds.” The 22-date tour kicked off in Vancouver and will conclude in early October in Miami.

“This was very important," Ziggy said about the tour while his brothers Stephen and Julian sat beside him after a recent rehearsal in Los Angeles. The multi-Grammy winner said it was important for them to collectively find time in their busy schedules and pay homage to their father — who would have turned 80 in February 2025.

“When the opportunity arise, we can come get together, cherish and appreciate it,” he continued. “That's the big part of it — just being able to do this together. Time is moving.”

The Marley Brothers have their own reggae sounds but found a way to blend it all together. They’ve performed together since childhood including a Red Rocks performance in Colorado last year. Two or three have hit the stage in other shows, like when Damian and Stephen performed at the Hollywood Bowl last month.

Julian said years of collaboration have fostered a deep musical synergy between his siblings — a natural extension of their shared lineage.

“His message goes beyond barriers. It breaks down barriers,” Julian said. “No matter which country you go to, the people need the same message. That's why this is so everlasting. Never ending. That is the reason we are here and doing this mission.”

Marley rose from the gritty Kingston, Jamaica, slum of Trench Town to reach superstar status in the 1970s with hits such as “Get Up, Stand Up” and “I Shot the Sheriff.” His lyrics promoting social justice and African unity made him a global icon before he died from cancer in 1981 at age 36.

But Marley’s legacy has lived on through several projects including an immersive exhibit in New York and his biopic “Bob Marley: One Love,” which debuted No. 1 at the box office in February.

On Sunday, the brothers were presented a proclamation that declared Sept. 22 as “Marley Brothers Day” in the Queens borough of New York.

His sons have upheld their father’s heritage while forging their own successful paths including Julian — who won his first-ever Grammy in February.

Ziggy and Stephen have each won eight Grammys; Damian has taken home five trophies and Ky-Mani has received a nomination.

Along with the tour, Stephen said they are looking to work on a new album together and push their father's message of positivity forward. He said it'll take some time but they aspire to get it “done in the near future.”

“The message in the music is what it's really all about,” said Stephen, who curated the tour's setlist. “For me, that message is so necessary now. Our father is one of those powerful ones that got this message across. That's why we're here.”

Damian Marley poses for a portrait on Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024, in New York. (Photo by Matt Licari/Invision/AP)

Damian Marley poses for a portrait on Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024, in New York. (Photo by Matt Licari/Invision/AP)

Ziggy Marley, from left, Julian Marley, Borough President of Queens, Donovan Richards Jr., Ky-Mani Marley, Damian Marley and Stephen Marley pose for a portrait on Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024, in New York. Richards presented the brothers with a proclamation establishing Sept. 22 as "Marley Brothers Day" in Queens. (Photo by Matt Licari/Invision/AP)

Stephen Marley poses for a portrait on Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024, in New York. (Photo by Matt Licari/Invision/AP)

Ky-Mani Marley poses for a portrait on Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024, in New York. (Photo by Matt Licari/Invision/AP)

Ziggy Marley poses for a portrait on Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024, in New York. (Photo by Matt Licari/Invision/AP)

Ky-Mani Marley poses for a portrait on Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024, in New York. (Photo by Matt Licari/Invision/AP)

Stephen Marley poses for a portrait on Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024, in New York. (Photo by Matt Licari/Invision/AP)

Julian Marley poses for a portrait on Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024, in New York. (Photo by Matt Licari/Invision/AP)

Ziggy Marley poses for a portrait on Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024, in New York. (Photo by Matt Licari/Invision/AP)

Ziggy Marley, from left, Julian Marley, Ky-Mani Marley, Damian Marley and Stephen Marley pose for a portrait on Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024, in New York. (Photo by Matt Licari/Invision/AP)