Israel has landed heavy blows on Hezbollah. The victory it seeks could prove elusive

It has been a devastating week for Hezbollah and the people of Lebanon.

Bombs hidden in the group's pagers and walkie-talkies killed dozens of people and wounded thousands — many of them Hezbollah members. Israeli strikes on Beirut killed two of Hezbollah's top commanders. And Israel has bombed what it said were 1,600 militant sites across large parts of Lebanon, killing hundreds of people and displacing thousands.

Israel says its objective is to secure the border so that tens of thousands of people who fled under Hezbollah fire nearly a year ago can return to their homes. But it's far from clear that its recent operations — as tactically successful as they were — will bring that about.

“No one either in or out of the defense establishment has any clue as to how to translate these brilliant operational achievements into political benefit, into a real victory that will stop the war in the north,” columnist Nadav Eyal wrote in Israel’s Yediot Ahronot newspaper.

“As long as Hezbollah retains any firepower, the northern border will not be able to return to normal.”

Hezbollah began firing into Israel the day after Hamas' Oct. 7 attack triggered the war in Gaza. Its stated aim was to pin down Israeli forces in the north to help its ally Hamas, which — like Hezbollah — is backed by Iran. The Lebanese militant group has said it would cease the attacks if there is a cease-fire in Gaza, which appears increasingly unlikely.

Hezbollah's response to the past week's escalation has seemed meager. The hundreds of rockets and drones it has fired into northern Israel — including areas much farther from the border than it hit previously — have caused few casualties and only scattered damage.

The militants fired a longer-range missile early Wednesday that targeted Tel Aviv for the first time, marking a clear escalation. The Israeli military said it intercepted the projectile, and there were no reports of casualties or damage.

Experts say Hezbollah is holding more such weapons in reserve.

The footage on Monday of Israeli strikes sending up plumes of dust and smoke seemed grimly familiar.

The American-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the NATO campaign in Libya in 2011, and the U.S.-led war against the Islamic State group in 2014 all began with massive airstrikes lighting up the sky. In each case, the war dragged on for months or years, and ground forces played a crucial role.

Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza began with nearly three weeks of heavy airstrikes across the territory, followed by a full-scale ground invasion. Nearly a year later, Hamas is still putting up a fight and holding scores of hostages.

With Hezbollah, Israel has so far adopted narrower objectives — not the disarmament or defeat of the Lebanese militant group, but a new arrangement in which militants retreat from the border and halt their attacks.

But even that may not be possible without a ground invasion.

There's also the risk of mission-creep, as America discovered after its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan ground on for years after the toppling of Saddam Hussein and the Taliban. NATO airstrikes initially aimed at preventing a feared massacre in Benghazi morphed into a seven-month campaign of regime change from which Libya has yet to fully recover.

Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant boasted that Monday's strikes alone had taken out tens of thousands of Hezbollah's rockets and missiles.

“This is the most difficult week for Hezbollah since its establishment," he added. "A blow has been dealt to the chain of command, to the terrorists themselves on different levels, to their shooting capabilities and to their morale.”

Hezbollah has acknowledged suffering heavy blows, but even if Gallant's assessment is correct, it still has considerable resources.

“The rocket unit is still active, Hezbollah has absorbed the initial shock, and the battle has only begun,” said Qassim Qassir, a former Hezbollah member who wrote a book about the group. “Hezbollah has only used a small part of its capabilities."

The militant group was established with the help of Iran following Israel's 1982 invasion and occupation of Lebanon, and it seeks Israel’s destruction. It has survived countless battles with Israeli forces, replaced several slain commanders over the years and rearmed after a monthlong war in 2006.

Hezbollah claims to have some 100,000 fighters. Before the latest hostilities, it was believed to have some 150,000 rockets and missiles, including long-range projectiles capable of hitting anywhere inside Israel, and some precision-guided missiles.

Its more sophisticated weapons are likely being held in reserve as it seeks to avoid triggering an all-out war.

Sarit Zehavi, a former Israeli military intelligence analyst and founder of the Alma Research and Education Center, a think tank focused on the northern border, said Hezbollah has concealed its weapons in different parts of the country, including in areas close to Beirut where it has a strong presence.

“Hezbollah was building redundancy, so they spread their munitions and infrastructure all over, and that’s why that many targets are being attacked, because it’s everywhere,” she said.

Hezbollah is far more advanced militarily than Hamas. Hezbollah also has a far larger area in which to operate, extensive supply lines linking it more directly to Iran, and networks of tunnels potentially even more extensive than those in Gaza.

In the event of a ground invasion, Hezbollah fighters could be joined by thousands of fighters from fellow Iran-backed groups from Iraq, Yemen and elsewhere in the region.

Israel says it has no immediate plans for a ground invasion but is prepared for one, and has sent thousands of battle-hardened forces from Gaza to the northern border. If the air campaign fails to bring Hezbollah to heel, Israeli leaders will be tempted to send them in.

Even if the goal is only to carve out a buffer zone to better secure the north, the risks are great.

Most Israelis are insulated from the air war by distance and Israel's missile defense systems, but a ground invasion would mean more casualties and protracted fighting for soldiers and reservists already weary from a year of war in Gaza.

Hezbollah waged an 18-year-long insurgency against Israel the last time it occupied Lebanon, eventually forcing it to withdraw, and another prolonged occupation could be similarly costly.

Israel has already faced international outrage over the war in Gaza, including ongoing investigations by top world courts, and risks even greater isolation if it launches a similar campaign in Lebanon.

Hezbollah also has few good options.

Halting its rocket fire on the north in the face of Israeli pressure would likely be seen by its supporters — and its patron Iran — as a humiliating capitulation and an abandonment of the Palestinians.

Escalating its attacks, either by launching more sophisticated rockets or targeting major cities like Tel Aviv, could bring an even more crushing Israeli response or an all-out war that devastates Lebanon — with Hezbollah at risk of being blamed.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah already faces criticism from many Lebanese who accuse him of tying their country’s fate to Iran and inviting war at a time of financial ruin.

That leaves it stuck with the status quo, in which Israel carries out increasingly heavy strikes while Hezbollah makes do with a relatively restrained response.

For Hezbollah, and the Lebanese people, that might make the coming weeks even worse.

Associated Press reporters Melanie Lidman in Tel Aviv, Israel, and Bassem Mroue in Beirut contributed to this report.

Smoke rises from Israeli airstrikes on villages in the Nabatiyeh district, seen from the southern town of Marjayoun, Lebanon, Monday, Sept. 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Lebanese soldiers secure the area near the site of an Israeli airstrike in Beirut's southern suburb, Monday, Sept. 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

A man who was injured in the explosion of one of the handheld devices, sits outside the Eye Specialist hospital, in Beirut, Lebanon, Friday, Sept. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Israeli security forces examine the site hit by a rocket fired from Lebanon, in Kiryat Bialik, northern Israel, on Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024. (AP Photo//Ariel Schalit)

Israeli security and rescue forces work at the site hit by a rocket fired from Lebanon, in Kiryat Bialik, northern Israel, on Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Gil Nechushtan)

People who fled the southern villages amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes Monday, sit in their cars as they are stuck in traffic at a highway that links to Beirut city, in the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari)

Hezbollah supporters carry pictures of Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Akil and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during Akil's funeral procession in Beirut's southern suburb, Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

Hezbollah supporters carry pictures of Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Akil during his funeral procession in Beirut's southern suburb, Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

Hezbollah supporters carry pictures of Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Akil, during his funeral procession in Beirut's southern suburb, Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

Hezbollah supporters shout slogans during the funeral procession of Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Akil and militant Mahmoud Hamad in Beirut's southern suburb, Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

A boy checks the damage to a building hit in an Israeli airstrike in the southern village of Akbieh, Lebanon, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari)

A man watches rescuers sift through the rubble as they search for people still missing at the site of Friday's Israeli strike in Beirut's southern suburbs, Monday, Sept. 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

Emergency workers use excavators to clear the rubble at the site of Friday's Israeli strike in Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanon, Monday, Sept. 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept rockets that were launched from Lebanon, as seen from Haifa, northern Israel, Monday, Sept. 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Baz Ratner)

Flames and smoke rise from an Israeli airstrike on Mahmoudieh mountain, as seen from Marjayoun town, south Lebanon, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Smoke rises from an Israeli airstrike on the Mahmoudieh mountain, as seen from Marjayoun town, south Lebanon, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Manny Machado and the San Diego Padres wrote their own Hollywood ending on the home field of their biggest rivals Tuesday night.

San Diego stunned the Los Angeles Dodgers with a game-ending triple play to preserve a 4-2 victory over the NL West leaders that clinched a playoff spot for the Padres.

“We won it! We won it!” yelled Fernando Tatis Jr.

The party was on in the Padres' darkened clubhouse, with music pumping and lights flashing as players drenched each other in alcohol.

“Couldn’t have scripted it any better, man,” manager Mike Shildt said over the din. “What a play by Manny, a phenomenal play.”

With the Padres leading by three runs in the ninth inning, Kiké Hernández hit an RBI single that cut it to 4-2 and put runners at first and second.

Miguel Rojas hit a sharp grounder to Machado at third base, and he stepped on the bag before going around the horn for the triple play. The Dodgers challenged the out call at second base, but the ruling was upheld after a video review.

Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani was left watching from the on-deck circle.

“I’ve been dying to do it for a couple years now,” said a bare-chested Machado, wearing sunglasses as a fragrant mix of beer and champagne dripped from every pore. “He showed bunt the first play. Thinking he was going to bunt — he hit a groundball right at me.”

The only other teams to turn a triple play on the same day they clinched a postseason berth were the 2020 Milwaukee Brewers, and the Chicago Cubs in 1910 and 1907, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

San Diego's was the first of those to end the game. It was the Padres' first triple play since June 10, 2010, against the New York Mets.

After missing the postseason last year, the Padres earned the eighth playoff berth in franchise history. They are guaranteed at least a National League wild card with five games remaining in the regular season.

“They’re a good frickin’ ballclub on the other side, so we've got to go out there and play better,” Machado said. “We did that tonight.”

Jake Cronenworth hit an early two-run homer, then he and Xander Bogaerts drove in runs in the fourth to give the Padres a 4-1 lead.

Chasing their first division title since 2006, the Padres are two games behind Los Angeles with two games left in their series at Dodger Stadium. San Diego already owns the tiebreaker with an 8-3 record in head-to-head matchups this season.

“It’s a beautiful, wonderful start,” Shildt said. “You've got to get in the playoffs to win it all. It’s just about taking care of business from here on out.”

San Diego has the best record in the majors since the All-Star break at 41-17.

“We enjoy playing every single day. Coming to the ballpark has been fun every single day,” Machado said. “Guys have stepped up big-time. It’s taken a whole effort as an organization to be where we’re at today.”

The Padres (91-66) have their most wins since the 1998 NL championship team finished the regular season 98-64 — and they have designs on winning their first World Series title to honor Peter Seidler, the owner who died last year at age 63.

“He’s been with us all year,” Machado said. “He’s shining upon us right now, smiling down enjoying this moment, enjoying this victory with us, enjoying this celebration.”

Seidler had strong ties to the Dodgers. He was the grandson of Walter O’Malley, who owned the Brooklyn Dodgers and relocated them to the West Coast in 1958, and the nephew of Peter O’Malley, who inherited the team along with Seidler’s mother Terry.

“Peter started us off years ago and here we are,” Machado said. “We’re doing it for him.”

The Padres came out on the field in the empty stadium and chanted “Manny! Manny!” while posing for photos.

San Diego earned a wild card in 2022 and eliminated the Mets and Dodgers from the playoffs before losing to Philadelphia in the NL Championship Series.

AP MLB: https://apnews.com/hub/mlb

Los Angeles Dodgers interpreter Will Ireton, right, is unable to reach a batted ball while trying to protect Shohei Ohtani as Ohtani warms up prior to a baseball game against the San Diego Padres, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Landon Knack throws to the plate during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padresl, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres' Jake Cronenworth, second from left, hits a two-run home run as Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Landon Knack, left, washes along with catcher Will Smith, right, and home plate umpire Tripp Gibson during the second inning of a baseball game, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Los Angeles Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani is congratulated by teammates in the dugout after scoring on San Diego Padres shortstop Xander Bogaerts' error while trying to throw out Mookie Betts at first during the first inning of a baseball game, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Los Angeles Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani heads to first for a double during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres' Fernando Tatis Jr., center, celebrates with teammates after the Padres clinched a playoff spot with a triple play to end their baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres manager Mike Shildt, left, celebrates with general manager A.J. Preller after the Padres clinched a playoff spot with a triple play to end their baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres manager Mike Shildt, left, celebrates with general manager A.J. Preller after the Padres clinched a playoff spot with a triple play to end their baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Members of the San Diego Padres celebrate after the Padres clinched a playoff spot with a triple play to end their baseball game as Los Angeles Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani stands at the plate, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres relief pitcher Robert Suarez, left, celebrates along with catcher Kyle Higashioka, center, and Jake Cronenworth, right, as Los Angeles Dodgers' Kiké Hernández stands on second base after the Padres clinched a playoff spot with a triple play to end their baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani hits a double during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres' Fernando Tatis Jr., center, celebrates with teammates after the Padres clinched a playoff spot with a triple play to end their baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres relief pitcher Robert Suarez celebrates after the Padres clinched a playoff spot with a triple play to end their baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres' Fernando Tatis Jr., left, celebrates with a teammate Jackson Merrill after the Padres clinched a playoff spot with a triple play to end their baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres' Jackson Merrill, right, celebrates with a teammate after the Padres clinched a playoff spot with a triple play to end their baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres' Fernando Tatis Jr., left, celebrates with a teammate after the Padres clinched a playoff spot with a triple play to end their baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres' Manny Machado celebrates after the Padres clinched a playoff spot with a triple play to end their baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres pitching coach Ruben O. Niebla, center, has beer poured on him as Fernando Tatis Jr. watches after the Padres clinched a playoff spot with a triple play to end their baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres' Jackson Merrill, center, celebrates with teammates after the Padres clinched a playoff spot with a triple play to end their baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Members of the San Diego Padres celebrate after the Padres clinched a playoff spot with a triple play to end their baseball game as Los Angeles Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani stands at the plate, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres' Fernando Tatis Jr., center, celebrates with teammates after the Padres clinched a playoff spot with a triple play to end their baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Michael King throws to the plate during the first inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres' Jake Cronenworth, left, heads to first for a two-run home run as Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Landon Knack watches during the second inning of a baseball game, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres' Jake Cronenworth, right, scores after hitting a two-run home run as Jackson Merrill waits to congratulate him during the second inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres' Jake Cronenworth, right, gestures as he round first after hitting a two-run home run during the first inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)