Tunisia votes Sunday in its third presidential election since the Arab Spring

TUNIS, Tunisia (AP) — With his major opponents imprisoned or left off the ballot, Tunisian President Kais Saied faces few obstacles to winning reelection on Sunday, five years after riding anti-establishment backlash to a first term.

The North African country's Oct. 6 presidential election is its third since protests led to the 2011 ouster of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali — the first autocrat toppled in the Arab Spring uprisings that also overthrew leaders in Egypt, Libya and Yemen.

International observers praised the previous two contests as meeting democratic norms. However, a raft of arrests and actions taken by a Saied-appointed election authority have raised questions about whether this year's race is free and fair. And opposition parties have called for a boycott.

Not long ago, Tunisia was hailed as the Arab Spring’s only success story. As coups, counter-revolutions and civil wars convulsed the region, the North African nation enshrined a new democratic constitution and saw its leading civil society groups win the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering political compromise.

But its new leaders were unable to buoy its struggling economy and were plagued by political infighting and episodes of violence and terrorism.

Amid that backdrop, Saied, then 61 and a political outsider, won his first term in 2019. He advanced to a runoff promising to usher in a “New Tunisia” and hand more power to young people and local governments.

This year's election will offer a window into popular opinion about the trajectory that Tunisia’s fading democracy has taken since Saied took office.

Saied’s supporters appear to have remained loyal to him and his promise to transform Tunisia. But he isn’t affiliated with any political party, and it’s unclear just how deep his support runs among Tunisians.

It’s the first presidential race since Saied upended the country’s politics in July 2021, declaring a state of emergency, sacking his prime minister, suspending the parliament and rewriting Tunisia’s constitution consolidating his own power.

Those actions outraged pro-democracy groups and leading opposition parties, who called them a coup. Yet despite anger from career politicians, voters approved Saied’s new constitution the following year in a low-turnout referendum.

Authorities subsequently began arresting Saied’s critics including journalists, lawyers, politicians and civil society figures, charging them with endangering state security and violating a controversial anti-fake news law that observers argue stifles dissent.

Fewer voters turned out to participate in parliamentary and local elections in 2022 and 2023 amid economic woes and widespread political apathy.

Many wanted to challenge Saied, but few were able to.

Seventeen potential candidates filed paperwork to run and Tunisia’s election authority approved only three: Saied, Zouhair Maghzaoui and Ayachi Zammel.

Maghzaoui is a veteran politician who has campaigned against Saied’s economic program and recent political arrests. Still, he is loathed by opposition parties for backing Saied’s constitution and earlier moves to consolidate power.

Zammel is a businessman supported by politicians not boycotting the race. During the campaign, he has been sentenced to prison time in four voter fraud cases related to signatures his team gathered to qualify for the ballot.

Others had hoped to run but were prevented. The election authority, known as ISIE, last month dismissed a court ruling ordering it to reinstate three additional challengers.

With many arrested, detained or convicted on charges related to their political activities, Tunisia’s most well-known opposition figures are also not participating.

That includes the 83-year-old leader of Tunisia’s most well organized political party Ennahda, which rose to power after the Arab Spring. Rached Ghannouchi, the Islamist party’s co-founder and Tunisia’s former house speaker, has been imprisoned since last year after criticizing Saied.

The crackdown also includes one of Ghannouchi’s most vocal detractors: Abir Moussi, a right-wing lawmaker known for railing against Islamists and speaking nostalgically for pre-Arab Spring Tunisia. The 49-year-old president of the Free Destourian Party also was imprisoned last year after criticizing Saied.

Other less known politicians who announced plans to run have also since been jailed or sentenced on similar charges.

Opposition groups have called to boycott the race. The National Salvation Front — a coalition of secular and Islamist parties including Ennahda — has denounced the process as a sham and questioned the election’s legitimacy.

The country’s economy continues to face major challenges. Despite Saied’s promises to chart a new course for Tunisia, unemployment has steadily increased to one of the region’s highest at 16%, with young Tunisians hit particularly hard.

Growth has been slow since the COVID-19 pandemic and Tunisia has remained reliant on multilateral lenders such as the World Bank and the European Union. Today, Tunisia owes them more than $9 billion. Apart from agricultural reform, Saied’s overarching economic strategy is unclear.

Negotiations have long been stalled over a $1.9 billion bailout package offered by the International Monetary Fund in 2022. Saied has been unwilling to accept its conditions, which include restructuring indebted state-owned companies and cutting public wages. Some of the IMF’s stipulations — including lifting subsidies for electricity, flour and fuel — would likely be unpopular among Tunisians who rely on their low costs.

Economic analysts say that foreign and local investors are reluctant to invest in Tunisia due to continued political risks and an absence of reassurances.

The dire economic straits have had a two-pronged effect on one of Tunisia’s key political issues: migration. From 2019 to 2023, an increasing number of Tunisians attempted to migrate to Europe without authorization. Meanwhile, Saied's administration has taken a harsh approach against migrants arriving from sub-Saharan Africa, many who have found themselves stuck in Tunisia while trying to reach Europe.

Saied energized his supporters in early 2023 by accusing migrants of violence and crime and portraying them as part of a plot to change the country’s demography. The anti-migrant rhetoric prompted extreme violence against migrants and a crackdown from authorities. Last year, security forces targeted migrant communities from the coast to the capital with a series of arrests, deportation to the desert and the demolition of tent camps in Tunis and coastal towns.

Bodies continue to wash ashore on Tunisia’s coastline as boats carrying Tunisians and migrants from sub-Saharan Africa manage only to make it a few nautical miles before sinking.

Tunisia has maintained ties with its traditional Western allies but also forged new partnerships under Saied.

Much like many populist leaders who’ve taken power worldwide, Saied emphasizes sovereignty and freeing Tunisia from what he calls “foreign diktats.” He has insisted that Tunisia won’t become a “border guard” for Europe, which has sought agreements with him to better police the Mediterranean.

Tunisia and Iran lifted visa requirements and in May announced plans to boost trade ties. It has also accepted millions in loans as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative to build hospitals, stadiums and ports.

Yet European countries remain Tunisia’s top trade partners and their leaders have maintained productive ties with Saied, hailing agreements to manage migration as a “model” for the region.

Saied has spoken ardently in support of Palestinians as war has swept the Middle East and opposes moves made to normalize diplomatic ties with Israel.

Supporters of Tunisian President and candidate for re-election Kais Saied meet with residents of a neighbourhood during a campaign tour, in Ariana, Tunisia, Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Anis Mili)

A supporter of Tunisian President and candidate for re-election Kais Saied meets with residents of a neighbourhood during a campaign tour, in Ariana, Tunisia, Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Anis Mili)

Supporters of Tunisian President and candidate for re-election Kais Saied meet with residents of a neighbourhood during a campaign tour, in Ariana, Tunisia, Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Anis Mili)

Supporters of Tunisian President and candidate for re-election Kais Saied meet with residents of a neighbourhood during a campaign tour, in Ariana, Tunisia, Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Anis Mili)

Tunisian presidential candidate Zouhair El Maghzaoui, meets with residents of a neighbourhood during his campaign tour, ahead of the upcoming presidential elections, in Tunis, Tunisia, Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Anis Mili)

Members of the opposition and civil society groups shout slogans and wave placards during a demonstration against Tunisia president Kais Saied, ahead of the upcoming presidential elections, in Tunis, Friday, Sept. 27, 2024. Banner in Arabic reads: "We will not forgive, we will not forget." (AP Photo/Anis Mili)

Members of the opposition and civil society groups shout slogans and wave placards during a demonstration against Tunisia president Kais Saied, ahead of the upcoming presidential elections, in Tunis, Friday, Sept. 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Anis Mili)

People paddle board in the Mediterranean Sea at Sidi Bousaid beach, in Tunis, Tunisia, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024 (AP Photo/Anis Mili)

A supporter of Tunisian President and candidate for re-election Kais Saied meets with residents of a neighbourhood during a campaign tour, in Ariana, Tunisia, Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Anis Mili)

An election banner for Tunisian president and candidate for re-election Kais Saied pictured in Tunis ahead of the upcoming presidential elections, in Tunis, Tunisia, Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Anis Mili)

MILWAUKEE (AP) — Pete Alonso hit a go-ahead, three-run homer off All-Star closer Devin Williams in the ninth inning and the New York Mets beat the Milwaukee Brewers 4-2 on Thursday night to win their NL Wild Card Series.

With their latest thrilling comeback in the decisive Game 3 against Milwaukee, the Mets advanced in the playoffs for the first time since winning the 2015 National League pennant. They moved on to a best-of-five Division Series beginning Saturday in Philadelphia against the NL East champion Phillies.

It will be the first postseason meeting between the heated rivals.

“This has been unreal. What a ride,” Alonso said. “I’m just excited to help keep this team alive.”

The slugger became the first major leaguer to hit a go-ahead homer when his team was trailing in the ninth inning or later of a winner-take-all postseason game, according to OptaSTATS.

“This is something that you practice as a kid in the backyard,” Alonso said.

The NL Central champion Brewers, making their sixth playoff appearance in seven years, still haven't won a postseason series since reaching Game 7 of the 2018 National League Championship Series.

This loss will be particularly painful.

“I love this team,” manager Pat Murphy said. “I love them. I'll never be able to duplicate 2024. It didn't end the way we wanted to. It ended tragically, actually.”

Milwaukee appeared to have the victory in hand after pinch-hitter Jake Bauers and Sal Frelick broke a scoreless tie by opening the seventh inning with back-to-back homers on consecutive pitches from Jose Buttó. Rookie right-hander Tobias Myers and three Brewers relievers combined on a two-hit shutout through the first eight innings.

In fact, 12 straight Mets had been retired when they entered the ninth against Williams, a two-time NL reliever of the year who had earned the save Wednesday in Milwaukee’s Game 2 victory.

But he wasn’t his normal self on this night.

“I'm not going to make any excuse,” Williams said. “I didn’t execute the way I needed to. They got the job done and I didn’t.”

Francisco Lindor opened the inning by working an eight-pitch walk. Mark Vientos struck out, then Brandon Nimmo singled sharply on an 0-2 pitch to put runners at the corners.

That brought up Alonso, who has 226 career home runs in six seasons but hadn't delivered an extra-base hit since homering on Sept. 19.

“I know Devin has great stuff,” Alonso said. “I've seen him pitch a ton. We were teammates in the WBC (World Baseball Classic). He's a tough AB."

After getting ahead 3-1 in the count, Alonso drove an 86 mph changeup to the opposite field over the wall in right. He put his fingers to his mouth in a “chef’s kiss” gesture as he rounded first base and gave New York the lead.

Alonso can become a prized free agent after the World Series, so it could have been his final plate appearance with the only professional franchise he's played for if the Mets had fallen short.

Instead, he sent them on to the next round with the biggest home run of his career.

“Pete Alonso was one swing away from people going crazy about him. And that’s what happened,” Lindor said.

Williams remained in the game but never regained his footing. Jesse Winker was hit by a pitch with two outs, stole second and scored an insurance run on Starling Marte’s single to right.

Winker, a former Brewer who was showered with boos throughout the series, screamed and slammed his helmet to the ground after sliding across the plate.

The ninth-inning rally continued New York’s storybook season. The Mets were 22-33 in late May but had the best record in baseball the rest of the regular season. They didn’t earn a playoff berth until scoring all their runs in the final two innings of an 8-7 comeback victory at rival Atlanta in the opening game of a makeup doubleheader Monday, the day after the regular season was supposed to end.

New York is the first team to clinch a postseason spot and a playoff series by winning both games after trailing in the ninth inning or later.

“With what’s transpired this season, it seems only fitting," Nimmo said. "We seemed down and out. At the beginning of the season, we were written off. Obviously it was compounded in April and May. Then we went on this just unbelievable run of being the best (team) in baseball for the next four months, having the team meeting, pulling ourselves up.

“And that’s kind of how this game was. This game, we were down and out for eight innings, and we just said, ‘You know what? We’re just going to keep shooting our shots until the end, and we’re going to see what happens.'”

Frelick led off the bottom of the ninth with a single, but Joey Ortiz struck out and Brice Turang hit into a double play to end the series.

“It sucks, plain and simple,” said Frelick, whose homer was his first since mid-May. "We got beat and it’s going to be something I think we all can remember as a group, though, going into next year.”

Edwin Díaz pitched 1 2/3 innings of scoreless relief to earn the win. David Peterson, making his first relief appearance this season, worked the ninth for his first major league save.

The game started out as a pitchers’ duel between Myers and New York left-hander Jose Quintana. Myers pitched five shutout innings, while Quintana held the Brewers scoreless through six.

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New York went 6-7 against the Phillies during the regular season and finished six games behind them in the division standings.

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The New York Mets celebrate after winning Game 3 of a National League wild card baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024, in Milwaukee. The Mets won 4-2. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

New York Mets manager Carlos Mendoza celebrates after winning Game 3 of a National League wild card baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024, in Milwaukee. The Mets won 4-2. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

New York Mets' Pete Alonso celebrates with teammates after winning Game 3 of a National League wild card baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024, in Milwaukee. The Mets won 4-2. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

The New York Mets celebrate after winning Game 3 of a National League wild card baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024, in Milwaukee. The Mets won 4-2. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

New York Mets' J.D. Martinez and Pete Alonso celebrate after winning Game 3 of a National League wild card baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024, in Milwaukee. The Mets won 4-2. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

The New York Mets celebrate after winning Game 3 of a National League wild card baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024, in Milwaukee. The Mets won 4-2. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

The New York Mets celebrate after winning Game 3 of a National League wild card baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024, in Milwaukee. The Mets won 4-2. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

New York Mets' Pete Alonso celebrates his three-run home run with Brandon Nimmo (9) and Francisco Lindor (12) during the ninth inning of Game 3 of a National League wild card baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

New York Mets' Pete Alonso hits a three-run home run during the ninth inning of Game 3 of a National League wild card baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

New York Mets' Pete Alonso hits a three-run home run during the ninth inning of Game 3 of a National League wild card baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

New York Mets' Pete Alonso hits a three-run home run during the ninth inning of Game 3 of a National League wild card baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

New York Mets' Pete Alonso celebrates his three-run home run with Luisangel Acuña during the ninth inning of Game 3 of a National League wild card baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Devin Williams reacts after giving up a three-run home run to New York Mets' Pete Alonso during the ninth inning of Game 3 of a National League wild card baseball game Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

New York Mets' Pete Alonso reacts after hitting a three-run home run during the ninth inning of Game 3 of a National League wild card baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

New York Mets' Pete Alonso reacts after hitting a three-run home run during the ninth inning of Game 3 of a National League wild card baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)