Tunisia's Kais Saied poised to win second term after cracking down on opposition

TUNIS, Tunisia (AP) — Tunisia’s incumbent president announced late Sunday that he would he would wait for official results before declaring victory while acknowledge exit polls showing him winning by a landslide in an election marred by earlier arrests of his opponents.

President Kais Saied's supporters jubilantly honked and celebrated after voting ended and public television broadcast images of the president pledging to pursue traitors and those acting against Tunisia, much like he has throughout his tenure.

“We’re going to cleanse the country of all the corrupt and schemers," Saied said at his campaign headquarters.

Tunisia's public television broadcast exit polls from Sigma Conseil, an independent firm that has historically published figures not far off official tallies, showing Saied winning more than 89% of the vote over imprisoned businessman Ayachi Zammel and Zouhair Maghzaoui, a leftist who supported Saied before choosing to run against him.

In the North African country known as the birthplace of the Arab Spring, much of the opposition chose to boycott the election. They called it a sham with Saied's leading critics imprisoned alongside journalists, lawyers, activists and leading civil society figures. They emphasized the low voter turn out in Sunday's election. Official results are expected on Monday.

At the time polling stations closed, only 2.7 million voters, 27.7% of the electorate, had cast ballots — far fewer than the 49% who participated in the first round of the last presidential race in 2019.

Supporters of the president — who rode anti-establishment backlash to win a first term five years ago — said his second win would send a clear message to the political class that preceded his ascendance.

“We're tired of the governance we had before. We want a leader who wants to work for Tunisia. This country was on the road to ruin,” said Layla Baccouchi, a Saied supporter.

The election was Tunisia's third since the nation became known as the birthplace of the Arab Spring uprisings that toppled dictators throughout the region. Weeks after a fruit vendor set himself ablaze to protest police humiliation and corruption, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali abdicated and fled the country.

In the years that followed, Tunisia enshrined a new democratic constitution, created a Truth and Dignity Commission to bring justice to citizens tortured under the former regime and saw its leading civil society groups win the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering political compromise. But its new leaders were unable to buoy its struggling economy and quickly became unpopular amid constant political infighting and episodes of violence and terrorism.

Observers judged the country's first two post-Arab Spring elections as free and fair. However the lead-up to this year's race saw the arrests of several declared challengers and the ongoing incarceration of his most prominent right-wing and Islamist critics.

Dozens of candidates had expressed interest in challenging the president and 17 submitted preliminary paperwork to run in Sunday’s race. However, members of the election commission, all of whom are appointed by the president, approved only the three. Zammel was subsequently charged with violating election laws and sentenced to years behind bars.

The president's detractors have routinely staged protests since July 2021, when he used emergency powers to suspend parliament and later rewrote the constitution giving himself more power. Since then, dozens of his opponents have been imprisoned on charges including inciting disorder, undermining state security and violating a controversial anti-fake news law that critics say is used to stifle dissent.

Among the changes enshrined in Saied's constitution, which voters approved via referendum the following year, was allowing the president to appoint all members of Tunisia's election authority, ISIE. It has faced scrutiny this year for ignoring court rulings ordering it put candidates it rejected back on the ballot and denying election monitors permission to observe the polls.

Such conditions led many to boycott the race, including Siwar Gmati, a 27-year-old who works for I Watch, one of the non-governmental organizations whose application to monitor the polls was rejected.

“We, as young people, are more attached to what the revolution brought to us,” Gmati said at a Friday protest. “We were raised after the revolution to speak our minds.”

Apart from Friday's protest and Sunday's celebration in downtown Tunis, there were few signs that an election was even underway throughout campaign season. The mood was a pronounced departure from the country's past two presidential elections, which were Tunisia's first contested races in decades.

Critics have called years of crackdown on Saied's opponents democratic backsliding and a reversal the progress made after the Arab Spring. Additionally, the country’s economy continues to face major challenges. Unemployment has steadily increased to one of the region’s highest at 16%, the government owes billions to international lenders and an increasing number of Tunisians attempted to migrate to Europe without authorization each year from 2019 to 2023.

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AP reporters Sam Metz and Mehdi El Arem contributed.

Election officials open a ballot box to count votes after the presidential elections, in the capital Tunis, Tunisia, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Anis Mili)

An election official stands next to a ballot box ahead of the vote counting after the presidential elections in the capital Tunis, Tunisia, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Anis Mili)

Election officials count votes after the presidential elections in the capital Tunis, Tunisia, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Anis Mili)

Election officials count the votes after the presidential elections in the capital Tunis, Tunisia, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Anis Mili)

Tunisian President Presidential candidate Zouhair Maghzaoui prepares to cast his vote at a polling station during the presidential elections, in the capital Tunis, Tunisia, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Ons Abid)

Voters queue to cast their ballot outside a polling station during the presidential elections, in the capital Tunis, Tunisia, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024 (AP Photo/Ons Abid)

Ballot boxes inside a polling station during the presidential elections, in the capital Tunis, Tunisia, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024 (AP Photo/Ons Abid)

Voters and officials gather outside a polling station during the presidential elections, in the capital Tunis, Tunisia, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Anis Mili)

A Tunisian voter casts her ballot at a polling station during the presidential elections, in the capital Tunis, Tunisia, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Anis Mili)

CORRECTS TO NASIR DISTRICT - Tunisian President and candidate for re-election Kais Saied and his wife Ichraf Chebil Saïed, leave a polling station after casting their votes, at Nasr district of the capital Tunis, Tunisia, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Anis Mili)

Tunisian President Presidential candidate Zouhair Maghzaoui prepares to cast his vote at a polling station during the presidential elections, in the capital Tunis, Tunisia, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Ons Abid)

A voter casts his ballot at a polling station during the presidential elections, in the capital Tunis, Tunisia, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024 (AP Photo/Ons Abid)

Tunisian President and candidate for re-election Kais Saied, center, and his wife Ichraf Chebil Saïed, leave a polling station after casting their votes, in Tunis, Tunisia, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024 (AP Photo/Anis Mili)

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) — Hurricane Milton quickly intensified Sunday and is on track to become a major hurricane with the Tampa Bay area in its sights, putting Florida on edge and triggering evacuation orders along a coast still reeling from Helene’s devastation.

While forecast models vary, the most likely path suggests Milton could make landfall Wednesday in the Tampa Bay area and remain a hurricane as it moves across central Florida into the Atlantic Ocean, forecasters said. That would largely spare other southeastern states ravaged by Hurricane Helene, which caused catastrophic damage from Florida into the Appalachian Mountains and a death toll that rose Sunday to at least 230 people.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Sunday that it's clear that Florida is going to be hit hard by Milton — “I don't think there's any scenario where we don't have major impacts at this point.”

Hurricane Milton was centered about 815 miles (1,310 kilometers) west-southwest of Tampa on Sunday afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (130 kmh), the National Hurricane Center said.

“You have time to prepare — all day today, all day Monday, probably all day Tuesday to be sure your hurricane preparedness plan is in place,” the governor said. “If you’re on that west coast of Florida, barrier islands, just assume you’ll be asked to leave.”

In Pinellas County, home to St. Petersburg, officials issued voluntary evacuation orders for people along the barrier island beaches and mobile home parks. Mandatory evacuations are likely to follow.

With Milton achieving hurricane status, this is the first time the Atlantic has had three simultaneous hurricanes after September, said Colorado State University hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach. There have been four simultaneous hurricanes in August and September.

The St. Petersburg-Tampa Bay area is still cleaning up extensive damage from Helene. Twelve people perished as storm surge swamped the coast, with the worst damage along the narrow, 20-mile (32-kilometer) string of barrier islands that stretch from St. Petersburg to Clearwater.

DeSantis expanded his state of emergency declaration Sunday to 51 of the state's 67 counties — home to more than 90% of the state’s nearly 23 million residents. The state’s Panhandle, which continues to recover from other recent storms, is expected to be mostly spared.

Floridians should prepare for more power outages and disruption, making sure they have a week's worth of food and water and are ready to hit the road, DeSantis said. The Federal Emergency Management Agency, meanwhile, coordinated with the governor and briefed President Joe Biden Sunday on how it has staged lifesaving resources.

“We are preparing ... for the largest evacuation that we have seen, most likely since 2017, Hurricane Irma," said Kevin Guthrie, executive director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management.

The state has prepared emergency fuel sources and electric vehicle charging stations along evacuation routes, and “identified every possible location that can possibly house someone along those routes,” Guthrie said. People who live in homes built after Florida strengthened its codes in 2004, who don't depend on constant electricity and who aren't in evacuation zones, should probably avoid the roads, he said.

All classes and school activities in St. Petersburg's Pinellas County preemptively closed Monday through Wednesday as Milton approached, and officials in Tampa opened all city garages free of charge to residents hoping to protect their cars from floodwaters, including electric vehicles.

As many as 4,000 National Guard troops are helping state crews to remove the tons of debris left behind by Helene, DeSantis said, and he directed that Florida crews dispatched to North Carolina in Helene's aftermath return to the state to prepare for Milton. The Florida Department of Emergency Management is establishing a base camp at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, where the Tampa Bay Rays play baseball, to support the operations to remove debris ahead of Milton's arrival, the governor said.

“All available state assets ... are being marshaled to help remove debris,” DeSantis said. “We're going 24-7."

Air search and rescue teams on Saturday found 39 more storm survivors who were still stranded in western North Carolina, state Gov. Roy Cooper’s office said. So far, almost 6,600 people have been rescued, evacuated or assisted by search-and-rescue teams since the storm hit, the office said.

FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell defended her agency's response to the hurricane's destruction after Republicans’ false claims, amplified by former President Donald Trump, created a frenzy of misinformation across devastated communities.

“This kind of rhetoric is not helpful to people and it’s really a shame we’re putting politics ahead of helping people,” Criswell told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, adding that it's created fear and mistrust among residents against the thousands of FEMA employees and volunteers on the ground across the southeast.

Criswell said the agency is already preparing for Milton.

“We’re working with the state there to understand what their requirements are going to be, so we can have those in place before it makes landfall,” she said.

Federal disaster assistance for survivors has surpassed $137 million since Helene struck more than a week ago, one of the largest mobilizations of personnel and resources in recent history, FEMA said Sunday.

Some 1,500 active-duty troops, more than 6,100 National Guardsmen and nearly 7,000 federal workers have been deployed, shipping more than 14.9 million meals, 13.9 million liters of water, 157 generators and 505,000 tarps, along with approving more than $30 million in housing and other types of assistance for over 27,000 households, according to FEMA, the White House and the Department of Defense.

More than 800 people unable to return home are staying in lodging provided through FEMA, and 22 shelters are still housing nearly 1,000 people as mobile feeding operations continue to help survivors. The response to Helene won't let up during Milton and its aftermath, because FEMA has the capacity to address multiple disasters simultaneously, the agency said.

“My Administration is sparing no resource to support families as they begin their road to rebuilding,” Biden said. “We will continue working hand-in-hand with local and state leaders – regardless of political party and no matter how long it takes.”

The hurricane center said Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the system’s progress. Heavy rainfall was expected Sunday ahead of the storm itself and will likely then combine with Milton's rainfall to flood waterways and streets in Florida, where forecasters said up to a foot (30 centimeters) of rain could fall in places through Wednesday night.

Meanwhile in the open Atlantic, Hurricane Kirk diminished to a Category 2 hurricane on Sunday, with top winds of 105 mph (165 kph), sending large swells and “life-threatening surf and rip current conditions” to Bermuda and northward along the U.S. and Canadian coasts, the center said. Hurricane Leslie was also moving over the Atlantic Ocean, well away from land, with top winds of 85 mph (140 kph).

Chloe Fleming, left, and Maya Teixiera don't let the rain from approaching Tropical Storm Milton dampen the day during Oktoberfest in Oakland Park, Fla., Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. (Joe Cavaretta/South Florida Sun-Sentinel via AP)

Nelson Hoyos loads sandbags for his business in Oakland Park, Fla., Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024, as Florida is in for a wet week as the storm nears the west coast. (Joe Cavaretta/South Florida Sun-Sentinel via AP)

This satellite image from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration taken at 7:41pm ET on Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024, shows Hurricane Milton, which quickly intensified Sunday and is on track to become a major hurricane with the Tampa Bay, Fla., area in its sights. (NOAA via AP)

This GOES-16 GeoColor satellite image taken at 4:50 p.m. EDT and provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows Tropical Storm Milton, center, off the coast of Mexico in the Gulf of Mexico, Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. (NOAA via AP)