Mideast violence is spiraling a year since the Gaza war began

JERUSALEM (AP) — A year after Hamas’ fateful attack on southern Israel, the Middle East is embroiled in a war that shows no signs of ending and seems to be getting worse.

Israel's retaliatory offensive was initially centered on the Gaza Strip. But the focus has shifted in recent weeks to Lebanon, where airstrikes have given way to a fast-expanding ground incursion against Hezbollah militants who have fired rockets into Israel since the Gaza war began.

Next in Israel's crosshairs is archenemy Iran, which supports Hamas, Hezbollah and other anti-Israel militants in the region. After withstanding a massive barrage of missiles from Iran last week, Israel has promised to respond. The escalating conflict risks drawing deeper involvement by the U.S., as well as Iran-backed militants in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

When Hamas launched its attack on Oct. 7, 2023, it called on the Arab world to join it in a concerted campaign against Israel. While the fighting has indeed spread, Hamas and its allies have paid a heavy price.

The group’s army has been decimated, its Gaza stronghold has been reduced to a cauldron of death, destruction and misery and the top leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah have been killed in audacious attacks.

Although Israel appears to be gaining the edge militarily, the war has been problematic for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, too.

Dozens of Israeli hostages are languishing in Hamas captivity, and a year after Netanyahu pledged to crush the group in “total victory,” remnants of the militant group are still battling in pockets of Gaza. The offensive in Lebanon, initially described as “limited,” grows by the day. A full-on collision with Iran is a possibility.

At home, Netanyahu faces mass protests over his inability to bring home the hostages, and to many, he will be remembered as the man who led Israel into its darkest moment. Relations with the U.S. and other allies are strained. The economy is deteriorating.

Here are five takeaways from a yearlong war that has upended longstanding assumptions and turned conventional wisdom on its head.

A long list of previously unthinkable events have occurred in mind-boggling fashion.

The Oct. 7 attack was the bloodiest in Israel’s history. Young partygoers were gunned down. Cowering families were killed in their homes. In all, about 1,200 people died and 250 were taken hostage. Some Israelis were raped or sexually assaulted.

The ensuing war in Gaza has been the longest, deadliest and most destructive in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Gaza health authorities say nearly 42,000 people have been killed — roughly 2% of the territory’s entire population. Although they do not give a breakdown between civilians and combatants, more than half of the dead have been women and children. Numerous top Hamas officials have been killed.

The damage and displacement in Gaza have reached unseen levels. Hospitals, schools and mosques – once thought to be insulated from violence – have repeatedly been targeted by Israel or caught in the crossfire. Scores of journalists and health workers have been killed, many of them while working in the line of duty.

Months of simmering tensions along Israel's northern border recently boiled over into war.

A growing list of Hezbollah officials – including the group’s longtime leader -- have been killed by Israel. Hundreds of Hezbollah members were killed or maimed in explosions of pagers and walkie-talkies. Israel's ground offensive is its first in Lebanon since a monthlong war in 2006.

Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has displaced tens of thousands of Israelis and over 1 million Lebanese. Israel promises to keep pounding Hezbollah until its residents can return to homes near the Lebanese border; Hezbollah says it will keep firing rockets into Israel until there is a cease-fire in Gaza.

When the war erupted, the days appeared to be numbered for both Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

Netanyahu's public standing plummeted as he faced calls to step aside. Sinwar fled into Gaza’s labyrinth of tunnels as Israel declared him a “dead man walking.”

Yet both men — facing war crimes charges in international courts — remain firmly in charge, and neither appears to be in a rush for a cease-fire.

The end of the war could mean the end of Netanyahu's government, which is dominated by hard-line partners opposed to a cease-fire. That would mean early elections, potentially pushing him into the opposition while he stands trial on corruption charges. Also looming is the prospect of an unflattering official inquiry into his government's failures before and during the Oct. 7 attack.

Fearing that, his coalition has hung together even through mass protests and repeated disagreements with top security officials pushing for a deal to bring home the hostages. After a brief period of post-Oct. 7 national unity, Israel has returned to its divided self — torn between Netanyahu’s religious, conservative, nationalist right-wing base and his more secular, middle-class opposition.

Sinwar, believed to be hiding in Gaza’s tunnels, continues to drive a hard bargain in hopes of declaring some sort of victory. His demands for a full Israeli withdrawal, a lasting cease-fire and the release of a large number of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for scores of hostages have been rejected by Israel — even as much of the international community has embraced them.

With cease-fire efforts deadlocked and Netanyahu’s far-right coalition firmly intact, the war could go on for some time. An estimated 1.9 million Palestinians remain displaced in Gaza while an estimated 68 hostages remain captive in Gaza, in addition to the bodies of 33 others held by Hamas.

Early in the war, Netanyahu promised to destroy Hamas' military and governing abilities.

Those goals have been achieved in many ways. Israel says it has dismantled Hamas’ military structure, and its rocket barrages have been diminished to a trickle. With Israeli troops stationed indefinitely in Gaza, it is difficult to see how the group could return to governing the territory or pose a serious threat.

But in other ways, total victory is impossible. Despite Israel’s overwhelming force, Hamas units have repeatedly regrouped to stage guerrilla-style ambushes from areas where Israel has withdrawn.

Across the Middle East, bitter enemies are witnessing the limits of force and deterrence.

Israel’s deepening invasion of Lebanon and repeated strikes on Hezbollah have failed to halt the rockets and missiles. Missile and drone attacks by Iran and its allies have only deepened Israel’s resolve. Israel is vowing to strike Iran hard after its latest missile barrage, raising the likelihood of a broader, regionwide war.

Without diplomatic solutions, the fighting is likely to persist.

Israel is still deeply traumatized as people try to come to terms with the worst day in its history.

The Oct. 7 killings and kidnappings had an outsized impact on a tiny country founded in the aftermath of the Holocaust. Israelis' sense of security was shattered, and their faith in the military was tested like never before.

Photos of Israeli hostages are everywhere, and mass demonstrations are held each week calling on the government to reach a deal to bring them home. The prospect of ongoing war looms over families and workplaces as reserve soldiers brace for repeated tours of duty.

The trauma is far more acute in Gaza – where an estimated 90% of the population remains displaced, many of them living in squalid tent camps.

The scenes have drawn comparisons to what the Palestinian call the Nakba, or catastrophe – the mass displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians during the war surrounding Israel’s creation in 1948. The Palestinians now find themselves looking at a tragedy of even greater scale.

It remains unclear when displaced Palestinians in Gaza will be able to return home and whether there will be anything to return to. The territory has suffered immense destruction and is littered with unexploded bombs. Children are missing a second consecutive school year, virtually every family has lost a relative in the fighting and basic needs like food and health care are lacking.

After a hellish year, the Palestinians of Gaza have no clear path forward, and it could take generations to recover.

The international community’s response to this bloodiest of wars has been tepid and ineffective.

Repeated cease-fire calls have been ignored, and a U.S.-led plan to reinstate the Palestinian Authority in postwar Gaza has been rejected by Israel. It remains unclear who will run the territory in the future or who will pay for a cleanup and reconstruction effort that could take decades.

One thing that seems clear is that old formulas will no longer work. The international community’s preferred peace formula – the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel – seems hopelessly unrealistic.

Israel’s hard-line government opposes Palestinian statehood, says its troops will remain in Gaza for years to come and has further cemented its undeclared annexation of the West Bank. The internationally recognized Palestinian Authority has been pushed to the brink of irrelevance.

For decades, the United States has acted as the key mediator and power broker in the region – calling for a two-state solution but showing little political will to promote that vision. Instead, it has often turned to conflict management, preventing any side from doing anything too extreme to destabilize the region.

This approach went up in smoke on Oct. 7. Since then, the U.S. has responded with a muddled message of criticizing Israel’s wartime tactics as too harsh while arming the Israeli military and protecting Israel against diplomatic criticism. The result: The Biden administration has managed to antagonize both Israel and the Arab world while cease-fire efforts repeatedly sputter.

This approach has also alienated the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, complicating Kamala Harris’ presidential aspirations. The warring sides appear to have given up on the Biden administration and are waiting for the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election before deciding their next moves.

Whoever wins the race will almost certainly have to find a new formula and recalibrate decades of American policy if they want to end the war.

Follow AP's coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/mideast-wars

Flames rise after an Israeli airstrike in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Aseel al-Titi, wearing a Hamas headband, a former Palestinian prisoner who was released by the Israeli authorities, is greeted by friends and family members in Balata, a Palestinian refugee camp in Nablus, West Bank, Friday, Nov. 24, 2023. (AP Photo/Majdi Mohammed)

Antonio Macías' mother cries over her son's body covered with the Israeli flag at Pardes Haim cemetery in Kfar Saba, near Tel Aviv, Israel, Sunday, Oct. 15, 2023. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco)

Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike in the Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel, Monday, Oct. 23, 2023. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)

An Israeli mobile artillery unit fires a shell from southern Israel toward the Gaza Strip, in a position near the Israel-Gaza border, Israel, Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023. (AP Photo/Maya Alerruzzo)

The bodies of a father and his child killed in the Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip, lie in front of the morgue at Al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir Al-Balah, Sunday, Oct. 22, 2023. (AP Photo/Fatima Shbair)

Palestinians mourn relatives killed in the Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip in front of the morgue in Deir al Balah, Sunday, Nov. 19, 2023. (AP Photo/Hatem Moussa)

Israelis killed by Hamas militants lie on the road near Sderot, Israel, on Oct. 7, 2023. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

Israeli soldiers walk by civilians killed by Palestinian militants in Sderot, Israel, on Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

Mideast violence is spiraling a year since the Gaza war began

Destruction left by the Israeli air and ground offensive is seen in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip, Friday, Sept. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Mideast violence is spiraling a year since the Gaza war began

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Tempers flared on the field and in the stands at Dodger Stadium, with fans tossing baseballs, apparently at San Diego left fielder Jurickson Profar, and then trash that caused a 12-minute wait between pitches during the seventh inning of the Padres' 10-2 win in NL Division Series Game 2 on Sunday night.

Profar had robbed Mookie Betts of a home run in the first inning, reaching into the stands behind the low left-field wall. Left field umpire Adrian Johnson circled his arm signaling a home run.

But Profar battled the outstretched arms of fans, reeling in the ball on the webbing of his glove and helping spark the Padres to evening the best-of-five series at one game each.

“He tried," Profar said of a fan who tried to snatch the ball. "I dunked on him.”

Profar hopped away backward as he stared at the astonished fans, then threw the ball to the infield. Later, there were verbal exchanges between fans and Profar.

“He said the fans out there were trying to get it out of his glove,” Padres slugger Manny Machado said. “What a hell of a catch to start off the game."

With San Diego leading 4-1 and Yu Darvish warming up for the bottom of the seventh, fans appeared to be yelling at Profar, who motioned back at them with his right arm.

A couple of balls were thrown. Johnson came up to him, soon joined by Padres manager Mike Shildt, San Diego players and more umpires. Profar yelled and pointed before teammate Xander Bogaerts put an arm around him and Padres players, including Darvish, formed a huddle.

“Yes, I was upset. You can hurt somebody,” Profar said. “I hope our people in San Diego don’t do that.”

Profar said Dodgers fans “wanted to start throwing stuff on the field yesterday.”

Dodgers security staff attempted to identify the fans who caused the trouble.

“We were looking for a higher security presence out in the left-field corner to ensure that that behavior didn’t continue and to make sure that if anybody did throw anything out on the field they would be identified immediately and removed from the stadium,” umpire crew chief Dan Bellino said.

Public address announcer Todd Leitz told the crowd: “We ask that you do not throw objects onto the field.”

“You’re in a tough environment,” Machado said. “You’re going to get some things said to you but once you start throwing things onto the field that’s just uncalled for.”

There was trash on the warning track in right field near the Padres bullpen.

“Now we had a second instance that was happening at a different part of the stadium, so we just had to reiterate with security that we needed an enhanced security out in right field as well,” Bellino said.

After the seventh inning, Machado gathered his teammates for a brief meeting in their dugout.

Machado said his message was “just stay focused.”

Dodgers starter Jack Flaherty hit Fernando Tatis Jr. with a pitch in the sixth inning, and Profar exchanged words with Dodgers catcher Will Smith.

Machado took exception to Tatis getting plunked.

“You can’t get him out, don’t hit him,” he said. “They got the best player in the game, (Shohei) Ohtani. We don’t go out there and try to hit Ohtani. We try to get him out.”

Flaherty struck Machado out swinging with Tatis and another runner on in the sixth.

“He did some s—- in between innings. He threw a ball at our dugout,” Flaherty said. “There was no reason for that.”

Asked about Flaherty's accusation, Machado said, “I throw balls all the time into dugouts. Both dugouts. They have bad balls, you throw the ball back in there.”

Bellino said the situation never escalated to the point umpires considered directing players off the field.

“We would not hesitate to do that if we thought that their safety was in jeopardy,” he said. “And if that was to proceed, then obviously it would be referred to the commissioner’s pffice to see if a potential forfeit would be called for.”

AP MLB: https://apnews.com/MLB

San Diego Padres' Fernando Tatis Jr. is hit by a pitch during the sixth inning in Game 2 of a baseball NL Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres left fielder Jurickson Profar, left, is held back by teammates after he protested with umpires when items were thrown at him in the outfield during the seventh inning in Game 2 of a baseball NL Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres left fielder Jurickson Profar, second from right, and third baseman Manny Machado talk to the umpires after items were thrown at Profar in the outfield during the seventh inning in Game 2 of a baseball NL Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)

San Diego Padres manager Mike Shildt (8) and players talk to umpires after items were thrown on the field by fans during the seventh inning in Game 2 of a baseball NL Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)

Fans react toward San Diego Padres left fielder Jurickson Profar, foreground, after items were thrown at him in the outfield during the seventh inning in Game 2 of a baseball NL Division Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Padres, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

San Diego Padres left fielder Jurickson Profar, right, talks to umpire Adrian Johnson after items were thrown at Profar in the outfield during the seventh inning in Game 2 of a baseball NL Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)

San Diego Padres pitcher Yu Darvish, middle right, talks with third baseman Manny Machado (13), shortstop Xander Bogaerts, middle left, and catcher Kyle Higashioka on the mound during the sixth inning in Game 2 of a baseball NL Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)