The last time the eye of a major storm like Hurricane Milton struck Tampa Bay, in 1921, the city was a sleepy backwater of a few hundred thousand people. A century later, it's among the fastest-growing metropolises in the United States, with more than 3 million people, and highly vulnerable to flooding due to climate change. As Milton barrels toward the Gulf Coast of Florida, strengthening Monday into a Category 5 storm, experts are worried that a century of luck could come to a sudden end.
Here's what to know:
The National Hurricane Center is predicting storm surge in Tampa Bay and surrounding waters of between 8 and 12 feet (2.5 to 3 meters) above normal tide conditions, and rainfall of between 4 and 6 inches (10 to 15 centimeters) because of Hurricane Milton.
The entire Gulf Coast of Florida is especially vulnerable to storm surge. Last week, Hurricane Helene, which came ashore some 150 miles (240 kilometers) away from Tampa in the Florida Panhandle, still managed to cause drowning deaths in the Tampa area due to surges of around 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters) above normal tide levels.
“Had it made landfall just little farther to the south and east, it could have been a lot, lot worse,” said Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University.
The heightened risk is partially a result of topography. The Gulf of Mexico coastline of Florida is shallow with a gentle, sloping shelf. The higher ocean floor acts as a barrier that retains the storm's outflow of water, forcing the ocean to surge onto shore. That’s the opposite of Florida’s east coast, where the ocean floor drops suddenly a few miles from the coast.
“You can have the same storm, the same intensity, the same everything, but very different surges,” said Klotzbach.
A 2015 report from the Boston-based catastrophe modeling firm Karen Clark and Co. concluded that Tampa Bay is the most vulnerable place in the U.S. to storm surge flooding from a hurricane and stands to lose $175 billion in damage.
While Floridians are no strangers to storms, Tampa hasn't been in the direct path of a major hurricane in over a century.
In that lapse, the area has exploded in growth. Tens of thousands of Americans moved to the area during the COVID-19 pandemic, with many choosing to settle along barrier islands like Clearwater and St. Petersburg overlooking the normally placid, emerald Gulf waters. More than 51,000 people moved to the area between 2022 and 2023, making it the fifth-largest-growing U.S. metropolitan area, according to U.S. Census data.
Longer term residents, after having experienced numerous false alarms and near misses like Irma in 2017, may be similarly unprepared for a direct hit. A local legend has it that blessings from Native Americans who once called the region home and used to build mounds to keep out invaders have largely protected the area from major storms for centuries.
MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel said a hurricane in Tampa is the “black swan” worst-case scenario that experts have worried about for years.
“It’s a huge population. It’s very exposed, very inexperienced and that’s a losing proposition,” Emanuel, who has studied hurricanes for 40 years, said. “I always thought Tampa would be the city to worry about most.”
Also lurking in the waves and wind are the effects of climate change. Rising temperatures from greenhouse gas emissions have warmed the oceans, led to sea level rise and added moisture to the air — all key factors determining a hurricane's strength and the potential flooding it can cause.
“Due to global warming, global climate models predict hurricanes will likely cause more intense rainfall and have an increased coastal flood risk due to higher storm surge caused by rising seas,” Angela Colbert, a scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, wrote in a 2022 report.
On Monday, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Milton to a Category 5 storm after it gained 75 mph (120 kph) of intensity in the last 24 hours. One reason may be especially high water temperatures, which act like fuel for the storm.
“Milton’s rapid intensification is incredible,” University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy said in an email. “I’ve been pointing out for months, the Gulf has been and is record or near-record warm.”
The researcher noted that, due to rising sea levels brought on by climate change, Hurricane Andrew’s storm surge today would be 7 inches (17 centimeters) higher than it was when that storm pounded South Florida 30 years ago.
Officials in the area began issuing evacuation orders Monday for residents in six counties surrounding Tampa Bay that are home to almost 4 million people. Residents of mobile homes, RVs and manufactured homes not capable of withstanding winds of up to 110 mph (177 kph) are especially at risk.
Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie strongly urged people to leave coastal areas, noting people who died on barrier islands during Hurricane Ian in 2022 would still be alive if they just crossed the bridge to the mainland and found shelter.
“Please, if you’re in the Tampa Bay area, you need to evacuate. If they have called an evacuation order, I beg you, I implore you to evacuate. Drowning deaths due to storm surge are 100% preventable if you leave,” Guthrie said.
Almost inexplicably, storms seem to by bypass Tampa, with most Gulf disturbances passing well north of the city. The last time the Tampa area was hit by the eye of a major hurricane was Oct. 25, 1921. The hurricane had no official name but is known locally as the Tarpon Springs storm, for the seaside town where it came ashore.
The storm surge from that hurricane, estimated at Category 3 with winds of up to 129 mph (207 kph) was pegged at 11 feet (3.3 meters). At least eight people died, and damage was estimated at $5 million at the time.
Now, the tourist-friendly area known for its sandy white beaches has grown by leaps and bound, with an economy estimated to be worth nearly $200 billion. Hurricane Milton threatens to wash away all of that development.
This satellite image from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration taken at 7:41pm ET on Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024, shows Hurricane Milton, which quickly intensified Sunday and is on track to become a major hurricane with the Tampa Bay, Fla., area in its sights. (NOAA via AP)
A view of the Oelsner Indian Mound in preparation for Hurricane Milton on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in Port Richey, Fla. Local legend in the Tampa area is that Indian mounds help steer hurricanes away from the area. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)
Boats destroyed during Hurricane Helene are shown on the Davis Islands Yacht Basin ahead of the possible arrival of Hurricane Milton Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
Milton rapidly strengthened in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, becoming a Category 5 storm on a path toward Florida.
The major hurricane threatens to bring dangerous storm surge to Tampa Bay and is setting the stage for potential mass evacuations less than two weeks after a catastrophic Hurricane Helene swamped the coastline and killed more than 230 people.
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Here's the latest:
WILDWOOD, Fla. — Interstate 75 northbound was bumper to bumper and moving about 6 to 7 mph (10 to 11 kph) Monday afternoon as Floridians and visitors to the state attempted to flee Hurricane Milton.
The traffic snarl stretched for miles north of Tampa and in the Wildwood area, where Florida’s Turnpike pours into I-75.
Earlier Monday, the state opened the left shoulder to motorists in an effort to expedite the evacuation route.
Just feet from the sand at Fort Myers Beach, about 10 workers busily emptied the triple-wide trailer that houses The Goodz, a combined hardware, convenience, fishing supply, ice cream and beach goods store.
Owner Graham Belger said he moved his “Your Island Everything Store” into the trailer after Ian destroyed his permanent building across the street two years ago.
As Don McLean’s song “American Pie” — with its lyrics about driving to the levee but the levee was dry — played softly inside, the workers quickly carried sledge hammers, garden hoes, nails and other merchandise outside into a hauling trailer to be moved away, ignoring the plastic beach toys stuck in a corner. The mandatory evacuation order was looming and the crew needed to finish.
Belger directed traffic while disconnecting his computerized cash register so it too could be removed to safety.
“I’m very worried,” Belger said about Milton’s approach. “We’ll rebuild, but it is going to be bad.”
That comes after after Mexico’s National Meteorological Service said Hurricane Milton “may hit between Celestun and Progreso” late Monday or early Tuesday.
Celestun, on the western corner of the peninsula, is a low-lying nature reserve home to tens of thousands of flamingos. Progreso, to the east, is a shipping and cruise ship port with a population of about 40,000.
“We are facing a hurricane that is not following the typical trajectory of those that normally have hit us,” said Yucatan state Gov. Joaquín Díaz, who ordered the cancellation of all non-essential activities excepting grocery stores, hospitals, pharmacies and gas stations.
The Florida Department of Transportation is allowing motorists evacuating from Hurricane Milton to drive on the left northbound shoulder of Interstate 75 from Tampa to Interstate 10 in north Florida, and along eastbound Interstate 4, which cuts through central Florida from Tampa to the Atlantic Coast.
Officials say the right shoulder lanes are limited to emergency vehicles only.
South Carolina officials estimate $250 million has been spent so far on debris clean up, infrastructure damage and emergency response during Hurricane Helene.
The state has had more than 300 homes destroyed and 5,200 damaged, state Emergency Management Division Director Kim Stenson said Monday.
When asked how much South Carolina might ask Congress for in storm aid, Gov, Henry McMaster said he didn’t know.
“We’re still assessing that. But it’s going to be a big number,” McMaster said.
Power crews continue to make significant progress on outages. Only about 45,000 businesses and home didn’t have electricity Monday afternoon. There were about 1.4 million outages at the peak of the storm.
South Carolina’s largest school district will reopen on Wednesday after seven days out of school because of Hurricane Helene.
According to the National Hurricane Center’s Live Hurricane Tracker, Milton will make landfall on the west coast of Florida on Wednesday evening. It’s expected to be a Category 3 storm when it hits the shore and will barrel across the state through major cities like Tampa and Orlando overnight into Thursday.
The White House says she was briefed on the anticipated effects of Milton on Florida, as well as the various preparations underway across the federal government to support Florida’s response. She’ll continue to be briefed throughout the coming days, the White House says.
South of Fort Myers, I-75 heads east across what’s known as Alligator Alley before splitting off toward either Fort Lauderdale or Miami.
By early afternoon, many gas stations near I-75 in Fort Myers were already out of fuel. And there were long lines of people trying to stock up on supplies at the local Home Depot and Walmart stores ahead of Hurricane Milton’s landfall.
Georgia’s top elections official said Monday that he doesn’t expect damage from Hurricane Helene to cause major disruptions in next month’s general election in the state.
After coming ashore in Florida, Helene hit Georgia hard, leaving destruction and power outages in its wake. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said during a news conference that, for the most part, elections offices in the state’s 159 counties did not sustain serious damage, and no equipment was affected.
“What has been on everyone’s mind is what will happen to elections,” Raffensperger said. “Good news: Absentee ballots are going out this week as scheduled, and early voting will start next Tuesday, on Oct. 15.”
Blake Evans, the elections director for the secretary of state’s office, said county election officials have been dealing with power and internet outages in some parts of the state. But he said emergency management officials have helped prioritize elections offices to make sure they get power restored, and by Monday there were “minimal, if any, power outages to election offices across the state.”
▶ Read more about Georgia elections after Helene.
The tolls have been waived for seven days, starting Monday morning.
“With evacuation orders imminent, this will help keep traffic moving and be one less thing for people to worry about ahead of Milton,” DeSantis said Monday.
According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, there are two types of disaster declarations provided for in the Stafford Act: Emergency Declarations and Major Disaster Declarations. Both declaration types authorize the president to provide supplemental federal disaster assistance.
An Emergency Declaration can be declared for any occasion or instance when the president determines federal assistance is needed. They supplement state and local efforts in providing emergency services such as the protection of lives, property, public health, and safety. The total amount of assistance provided for a single emergency may not exceed $5 million, otherwise, the president will need to report it to Congress.
Early Monday afternoon, about two hours before a mandatory evacuation order took effect, stragglers and workers in Fort Myers Beach were working feverishly to board up and leave before Milton and its’ possible surge arrived.
The beach town on Florida’s Gulf Coast was already a near ghost town, with U-Haul trucks lining the neighborhood streets and pulling away.
This is neighborhood two blocks from the Gulf was ravaged by Hurricane Ian’s surge two years ago.
Older homes that survived Ian stand next to new homes that were rebuilt over the past two years. Half-built homes stand next to vacant lots.
“This whole street used to be filled out with houses,” said Mike Sandell, owner of Pool-Rific Services. His workers were removing the pool pump and heater from a residential pool, and planning going to put it on the home’s second floor so it wouldn’t get washed away by any surge from Hurricane Milton.
“These are all the kinds of things that got washed away two years ago,” Sandell said. “We’re down here trying to help the best we can. We’ve been in business here for 20 years.”
FEMA administrator Deanne Criswell continued to strongly push back against false claims and conspiracy theories about her agency’s response to Hurricane Helene.
In North Carolina, more than 1,600 members of search and rescue teams have been joined by about 1,700 members of the North Carolina National Guard along with 1,000 active-duty military personnel, according to Gov. Roy Cooper’s office.
“We have thousands of people on the ground, not just federal, but also our volunteers in the private sector,” Criswell said at a news conference Monday in Asheville, North Carolina. “And frankly, that type of rhetoric is demoralizing to our staff that have left their families to come here and help the people of North Carolina. And we will be here as long as they’re needed.”
On Friday, FEMA put out a statement debunking rumors that the agency will only provide $750 to disaster survivors to support their recovery.
“The $750 gets you money to help with your medicine or the food you lost in your refrigerator,” Criswell said. “And then we’re going to give additional money for the repairs to your home and the items that were lost. We’re going to help with any rental that they incur or any of the displacement cost if they went and stayed at a hotel. All of that reimbursed. But I can’t give it to them if they don’t apply. And if people are afraid to apply, then it is hurting them.”
That’s the scene on the interstate Monday afternoon as residents were already heeding the pleas of local and state officials to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Milton.
In some stretches, the flow of traffic slowed considerably due to the sheer number of cars, semi-trucks and recreational vehicles trying to get out of harm’s way. Emergency officials are telling those in the storm’s path to consider evacuating tens of miles rather than hundreds of miles away, in part due to concerns that traffic could snarl evacuation routes and leave motorists stranded.
“Take action now to ensure you and your loved ones are ready,” officials posted on the county’s website.
Sarasota, which is about 60 miles (96 kilometeres) south of Tampa on Florida’s Gulf Coast, is preparing for whatever Hurricane Milton brings. Evacuations were underway Monday in the most coastal and low-lying areas. “Leave now,” was the directive on the website. Other areas should be prepared for the storm as well, officials said.
Sarasota took a glancing blow from Hurricane Helene late last month, and many areas in the region were flooded by storm surge.
The county said evacuation centers will open at 10 a.m. on Tuesday for those who can’t leave the area.
“If your plan is to leave the area, do so now, today, Monday. This will be one of the largest evacuations along our state’s west coast. If you wait, you will get stuck in traffic,” officials said.
It’s the “black swan” worst case scenario that MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel and other hurricane experts have worried about for years.
Part of it is that for some reason – experts say it’s mostly luck with a bit of geography – Tampa hasn’t been smacked with a major hurricane since the deadly 1921 hurricane that had 11 feet (3.3 meters) of storm surge that inundated downtown Tampa, though there wasn’t much to the city at the time, Emanuel said. Since then, a metropolis has grown and it’s full of people who think they’ve lived through big storms when they haven’t, he said.
“It’s a huge population. It’s very exposed, very inexperienced and that’s a losing proposition,” Emanuel, who has studied hurricanes for 40 years, said. “I always thought Tampa would be the city to worry about most.”
He said the whole basin is shaped and low-lying so it’s quite susceptible to flooding.
Milton rapidly strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane, the strongest level, in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday on a path toward Florida.
Milton had maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (250 kph), the National Hurricane Center said.
They plan to leave Tampa on Tuesday morning, the team announced in a statement.
Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Monday game against the Nashville Predators has been canceled. That game has been rescheduled from Sept. 27 because of Hurricane Helene.
Milton rapidly strengthened in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and was forecast to become a Category 5 storm on a path toward Florida, threatening a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and setting the stage for potential mass evacuations less than two weeks after a catastrophic Hurricane Helene swamped the coastline.
A hurricane warning was issued for parts of Mexico’s Yucatan state, and much of Florida’s west coast was under hurricane and storm surge watches. Florida’s Lake Okeechobee, which often floods during intense storms, was also under a hurricane watch.
Milton was a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph (250 kph) Monday morning over the southern Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said. It was forecast to become a Category 5 hurricane later Monday with winds greater than 157 mph (250 kph) and become a large hurricane over the eastern Gulf.
Its center could come ashore Wednesday in the Tampa Bay area, and it could remain a hurricane as it moves across central Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Monday that it was imperative that messes from Helene be cleaned up ahead of Milton’s arrival so they don’t become dangerous flying projectiles.
More than 300 vehicles picked up debris Sunday but encountered a locked landfill gate when they tried to drop it off. State troopers used a rope tied to a pickup truck and busted it open, DeSantis said.
“We don’t have time for bureaucracy and red tape,” DeSantis said. “We have to get the job done.”
Milton rapidly strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane Monday on a path toward Florida population centers including Tampa and Orlando, threatening a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and setting the stage for potential mass evacuations less than two weeks after a catastrophic Hurricane Helene swamped the coastline.
The storm is expected to stay at about its current strength for the next couple of days, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said. A hurricane warning was issued for parts of Mexico’s Yucatan state, and much of Florida’s west coast was under hurricane and storm surge watches.
Milton had maximum sustained winds of 150 mph (240 kph) over the southern Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane center said.
Its center could come ashore Wednesday in the Tampa Bay area, and it could remain a hurricane as it moves across central Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean. That would largely spare other states ravaged by Helene, which killed at least 230 people on its path from Florida to the Appalachian Mountains.
Forecasters warned of a possible 8- to 12-foot storm surge (2.4 to 3.6 meters) in Tampa Bay and said flash and river flooding could result from 5 to 10 inches (13 to 25 centimeters) of rain in mainland Florida and the Keys, with as much as 15 inches (38 centimeters) in places.
▶ Get up to speed on Hurricane Milton
This satellite image provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, shows Hurricane Milton. (NOAA via AP)
