What polling shows about Black voters' views of Harris and Trump

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What polling shows about Black voters' views of Harris and Trump

2024-10-08 19:47 Last Updated At：19:50

WASHINGTON (AP) — Black registered voters have an overwhelmingly positive view of Vice President Kamala Harris, but they’re less sure that she would change the country for the better, according to a recent poll from the   AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

The poll, which was conducted in mid-September, found about 7 in 10 Black voters have a somewhat or very favorable view of Harris, with few differences between Black men and women voters on how they view the Democratic candidate. Younger and older Black voters also had similar views of the vice president.

Black voters’ opinions of former President Donald Trump, by contrast, were overwhelmingly negative, underscoring the challenges that the Republican candidate faces as he seeks to erode Harris’ support among Black men. Black voters are an important Democratic constituency, and few are aligned with the Republican Party. According to the survey, two-thirds of Black voters identify as Democrats, about 2 in 10 identify as independents and about 1 in 10 identify as Republicans.

But the poll also found that despite this dramatic gap in views of the candidates, Black voters are less certain of whether Harris would set the country on a better trajectory, or make a substantial difference in their own lives. Only about half of Black voters say “would change the country for the better” describes Harris very or extremely well, while about 3 in 10 say it describes her “somewhat well” and about 2 in 10 say it describes her “not very well” or “not well at all.” And only about half believe the outcome of this presidential election will have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of impact on them personally, an assessment that’s in line with Americans overall.

“The Democratic Party is not strong enough for me,” said Raina Johnson, 53, a safety case manager in Chicago. Johnson predicted that Harris would “try to do something for the people” but she felt that Harris would be limited as it was "with (Barack) Obama, because the Republican Party shut him down.”

While Johnson felt that the stakes of the election were extremely high, she did not think it would have a large personal impact on her.

“Because I’ll still live my life. I’ll just have to roll with the punches,” she said.

When asked which candidate would do a better job handling their top issues, including the economy, health care and crime, Black voters had the same answer: Harris.

Like voters overall, about 8 in 10 Black voters said the economy is one of the most important issues to their vote. But about three-quarters of Black voters said health care was one of their most important issues, compared to slightly more than half of registered voters, and they were also more likely than the electorate as a whole to say gun policy and crime were top issues.

In all of those areas, as well as on other topics like abortion and climate change, Harris held a commanding advantage over Trump among Black voters. But the size of that edge was bigger on some issues than others. About 6 in 10 Black voters said Harris was better positioned to handle the economy, while about 2 in 10 said this about Trump, giving Harris about a 40-point advantage. On abortion policy, she had around a 60-point advantage over Trump.

The Trump campaign has stepped up with some outreach to Black communities this year. The former president’s campaign believes that his message on the economy, immigration and traditional values can make notable inroads into the Democrats’ traditional base of support among Black voters, especially younger Black men.

Rod Wettlin, a retired Air Force veteran in Surprise, Arizona, who wants greater action on issues like health care and immigration, said he was deeply opposed to Trump and was concerned about the implications of the election for American democracy.

“What’s going on now is the culmination of a lot of stuff that’s been in our face for years,” said Wettlin. “Hopefully after the election it is civil, but these cats out here are already calling for bedlam. And that’s their right, I fought for them to have that right. But don’t infringe on mine.”

There are signs that some groups of Black voters see Harris as a stronger figure, though. Black women voters and older Black voters were especially likely to describe Harris as someone who would “fight for people like you,” compared to Black men and younger Black voters.

Relatively few Black voters have a positive view of Trump, or see him as a candidate who has important qualities for the presidency. The poll found that about 8 in 10 Black voters have a somewhat or very unfavorable view of Trump, while just 15% have a somewhat or very favorable view. About 1 in 10 said “would change the country for the better” or “would fight for people like you” describes Trump at least very well, and a similarly low share of Black voters said that Trump would make a good president.

“I think we’re headed in the right direction if Kamala Harris gets it,” said Roslyn Coble, 63, and a resident of Oakboro, North Carolina. “But if Donald Trump gets it, it’s going to be bad. He already told us what he’s going to do. He’s going to be a dictator.”

About 7 in 10 Black voters say the phrase “will say anything to win the election” describes Trump at least very well.

In a sign of how former President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw as the Democratic candidate in July may have altered the race, only 55% of Black men voters have a favorable view of Biden, compared to 7 in 10 Black women voters.

“He did his best,” said Wettlin. He said that Biden should have bowed out of the presidential race far sooner and was skeptical of some of his achievements.

Black voter engagement organizations say they have also seen a burst of energy from voters and advocates since Harris’ entrance into the race, and both the Harris and Trump campaigns are continuing to focus on this group.

The Trump campaign has been conducting listening sessions and community events in Black neighborhoods in cities like Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee. The campaign has also coordinated a “Black Voices for Trump” bus tour across cities in September. Meanwhile, the Harris campaign has held a number of events geared toward Black voters, especially Black men, and has deployed a number of high-profile surrogates, including lawmakers, celebrities and civil rights leaders, to Black communities in recent weeks.

The poll of 1,771 registered voters was conducted Sept. 12-16, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Middle East latest: Israel says it killed a senior Hezbollah commander as more rockets are fired

2024-10-08 19:35 Last Updated At：19:40

The Israeli military said Tuesday it killed a senior Hezbollah commander in a strike on Beirut while the militant group's acting leader promised more fighting against Israeli troops in southern Lebanon and rocket fire into Israel.

The military said the strike killed Suhail Husseini, who it said was responsible for overseeing logistics, budget and management of the group. There was no immediate comment from Hezbollah.

Sheikh Naim Kassem, the acting leader of Hezbollah, said in a defiant televised statement that his group's military capabilities are still intact. He said that Hezbollah has replaced all of its senior commanders after weeks of heavy Israeli airstrikes across large parts of Lebanon, including targeted strikes that killed much of its top command in a matter of days.

Palestinian militants in Gaza fired a barrage of rockets into Israel on Monday, the anniversary of Hamas' Oct. 7 attack, underscoring their resilience in the face of a devastating Israeli offensive in Gaza that has killed about 42,000 people, according to local medical officials.

A year ago, Hamas-led militants blew holes in Israel’s security fence and stormed into army bases and farming communities, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting another 250. They are still holding about 100 captives inside Gaza, a third of whom are believed to be dead.

Israel is now at war with Hamas in Gaza and its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon, which began firing rockets at Israel on Oct. 8, 2023. On Monday, Lebanon’s Health Ministry said an Israeli strike in the country’s south, part of a wider bombardment, killed at least 10 firefighters. Hezbollah fired new barrages despite its recent losses.

Here is the latest:

CAIRO — Palestinians say heavy fighting is underway in northern Gaza, where Israel has ordered another wholesale evacuation and launched a ground operation a year into the war with Hamas.

At least 15 people, including two women and four children, were killed Tuesday in the fighting in Jabaliya, the nearby Kamal Adwan Hospital said.

The Israeli military said it killed around 20 militants in airstrikes and ground fighting in Jabaliya. It said troops located a large quantity of weapons, including grenades and rifles.

The north, including Gaza City, was the first target of Israel’s ground offensive. Entire neighborhoods have been reduced to rubble and the region has been largely isolated by Israeli troops since last October, when Israel ordered everyone to leave.

Hundreds of thousands of people have remained there despite the harsh conditions, leading Israel to order another mass evacuation in recent days. Israel has prevented residents who left the north during the war from returning.

Israeli forces are battling Hamas militants in Jabaliya, home to a densely populated urban refugee camp dating back to the 1948 war surrounding Israel’s creation. Palestinian residents said Israeli warplanes and artillery were pounding Jabaliya as well as Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahiya, towns near the border.

“The situation is extremely difficult. The bombing and explosions haven’t stopped,” said Mahmoud Abu Shehatah, a Jabaliya resident. “It’s like the first days of the war.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged “total victory” over Hamas, even as the war has expanded to include Lebanon’s Hezbollah and other Iran-backed groups across the region. Months of diplomatic efforts aimed at reaching a cease-fire in Gaza appear to have fizzled out, with each side accusing the other of making unacceptable demands.

JERUSALEM — The Israeli military said 85 projectiles were launched Tuesday from Lebanon toward northern Israel in a significant burst of fire.

The military said most of the projectiles were intercepted. Hezbollah confirmed it fired the salvo Tuesday.

Israel’s rescue service Magen David Adom said a 70-year-old woman was moderately wounded by shrapnel. Israeli media aired footage of what appeared to be minor damage to buildings near the coastal city of Haifa.

The military also said that it struck Hezbollah targets in the Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh, where the militant group has a strong presence.

BEIRUT — Hezbollah’s acting leader said Tuesday that even more Israelis will be displaced as the militant group extends its rocket fire deeper into Israel, in a defiant televised statement marking the anniversary of fighting that escalated into war last month.

Sheikh Naim Kassem said Hezbollah's military capabilities are still intact and that it has replaced all of its senior commanders after weeks of heavy Israeli airstrikes across large parts of Lebanon, including targeted strikes that killed much of its top command in a matter of days.

He also said Israeli forces have not been able to advance after launching a ground incursion into Lebanon last week. The Israeli military said a fourth division is now taking part in the incursion, which has expanded to the west, but operations still appear to be confined to a narrow strip along the border.

JERUSALEM — The Israeli military said a reserve division has begun limited operations against Hezbollah in southwestern Lebanon, in an apparent widening of its ground incursion.

The military said Tuesday that the 146th Division is the first reserve division to enter Lebanon since it launched ground operations just inside the border last week.

The announcement came a day after the Israeli military warned residents to evacuate from over a dozen towns and villages in southwestern Lebanon, including the coastal town of Naqoura, where U.N. peacekeepers are headquartered.

Israel has called on people to evacuate several dozen communities across southern Lebanon, many of them north of a U.N.-declared buffer zone established after the Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006.

Israel says its operations are aimed at halting a year of Hezbollah rocket attacks so that tens of thousands of its citizens can return to their homes in the north. Hezbollah has vowed to keep up the attacks until there is a cease-fire in Gaza.

The fighting, which escalated in mid-September, has displaced over 1 million Lebanese.

BEIRUT — The U.N. special coordinator for Lebanon and the head of the peacekeeping force deployed along the border with Israel said that a negotiated solution is the only way to restore stability and the time to act is now.

The statement by Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert and Lt. Gen. Aroldo Lázaro of the U.N. peacekeeping force known as UNIFIL came on the first anniversary of Lebanon’s Hezbollah group starting attacks on Israeli military posts along the border in support of its Hamas allies in the Gaza Strip.

Over the past weeks, the exchanges along the border have expanded into Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah missile attacks that are hitting deeper inside both countries. In Lebanon, more than 1 million people have been displaced and over 1,300 killed since mid-September.

Plasschaert and Lázaro said Hezbollah’s attacks starting on Oct. 8, 2023 were in violation of the U.N. Security Council resolution that ended the 34-day Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006.

“Too many lives have been lost, uprooted, and devastated, while civilians on both sides of the Blue Line are left wanting for security and stability,” the statement said referring to the border line along the Lebanon-Israel border.

“Today, one year later, the near-daily exchanges of fire have escalated into a relentless military campaign whose humanitarian impact is nothing short of catastrophic,” the statement said.

It warned that further that further violence and destruction will neither solve the underlying issues nor make anyone safer in the long run.

“A negotiated solution is the only pathway to restore the security and stability that civilians on both sides so desperately want and deserve,” the statement said. “The time to act accordingly is now.”

ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey is deploying two navy ships to evacuate its citizens from Lebanon amid the rising tensions in the region.

According to a statement from the Turkish Foreign Ministry, the ships, which together can accommodate up to 2,000 passengers, will depart for Lebanon on Tuesday. The evacuations are scheduled to begin on Wednesday.

The ministry said additional evacuations would be organized if necessary.

Besides evacuating citizens, the ships will be carrying humanitarian aid for Lebanon, the ministry said.

DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip — At least 30 people, including six children and two women, were killed in Israeli strikes in central Gaza late Monday.

Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, where the bodies were taken, provided an updated toll Tuesday as more bodies were recovered from the rubble.

The strikes took place on the anniversary of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack into southern Israel that triggered the war.

Two strikes hit houses in the built-up Bureij refugee camp, which dates back to the 1948 war surrounding Israel’s creation. An Associated Press journalist counted 21 bodies on Monday, along with about a dozen wounded, including several children.

The Palestinian death toll in the war in Gaza is nearing 42,000, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which doesn’t differentiate between civilians and militants.

JERUSALEM — The Israeli military says it killed a senior Hezbollah commander in a strike on Beirut.

The military said Tuesday that it killed Suhail Husseini, who it said was responsible for overseeing logistics, budget and management of the militant group.

There was no immediate comment from Hezbollah.

The military said Husseini was involved in the transfer of advanced weapons from Iran and their distribution to different Hezbollah units, and that he was a member of the group’s military council.

Israeli strikes have killed Hezbollah’s overall leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and several of his top commanders in recent weeks. Last week, Israel launched what it says is a limited ground incursion into southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah says it has already replaced its slain commanders. It has vowed to keep firing rockets, missiles and drones into Israel until there is a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip, where its ally Hamas has been at war with Israel for a year.