WASHINGTON (AP) — Israeli military strikes are targeting Iran's armed allies across a nearly 2,000-mile stretch of the Middle East and threatening Iran itself. The efforts raise the possibility of an end to two decades of Iranian ascendancy in the region, to which the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq inadvertently gave rise.
In Washington, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and Arab capitals, opponents and supporters of Israel's offensive are offering clashing ideas about what the U.S. should do next, as its ally racks up tactical successes against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen and presses its yearlong campaign to crush Hamas in Gaza.
Israel should get all the support it needs from the United States until Iran's government “follows other dictatorships of the past into the dustbin of history,” said Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at Washington's conservative-leaning Foundation for the Defense of Democracies — calls echoed by some Israeli political figures.
Going further, Yoel Guzansky, a former senior staffer at Israel’s National Security Council, called for the Biden administration to join Israel in direct attacks in Iran. That would send "the right message to the Iranians — ‘Don’t mess with us,’'' Guzansky said.
Critics, however, highlight lessons from the U.S. military campaign in Iraq and toppling of Saddam Hussein, when President George W. Bush ignored Arab warnings that the Iraqi dictator was the region's indispensable counterbalance to Iranian influence. They caution against racking up military victories without adequately considering the risks, end goals or plans for what comes next, and warn of unintended consequences.
Ultimately, Israel “will be in a situation where it can only protect itself by perpetual war,” said Vali Nasr, who was an adviser to the Obama administration. Now a professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, or SAIS, he has been one of the leading documenters of the rise of Iranian regional influence since the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu giving limited weight to Biden administration calls for restraint, the United States and its partners in the Middle East are “at the mercy of how far Bibi Netanyahu will push it,” Nasr said, referring to the Israeli leader by his nickname.
“It's as if we hadn't learned the lessons, or the folly, of that experiment ... in Iraq in 2003 about reshaping the Middle East order,” said Randa Slim, a fellow at SAIS and researcher at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
Advocates of Israel’s campaign hope for the weakening of Iran and its armed proxies that attack the U.S., Israel and their partners, oppress civil society and increasingly are teaming up with Russia and other Western adversaries.
Opponents warn that military action without resolving the grievances of Palestinians and others risks endless and destabilizing cycles of war, insurgency and extremist violence, and Middle East governments growing more repressive to try to control the situation.
And there’s the threat that Iran develops nuclear weapons to try to ensure its survival. Before the Israeli strikes on Hezbollah, Iranian leaders concerned about Israel’s offensives had made clear that they were interested in returning to negotiations with the U.S. on their nuclear program and claimed interest in improved relations overall.
In just weeks, Israeli airstrikes and intelligence operations have devastated the leadership, ranks and arsenals of Lebanon-based Hezbollah — which had been one of the Middle East’s most powerful fighting forces and Iran's overseas bulwark against attacks on Iranian territory — and hit oil infrastructure of Yemen's Iran-allied Houthis.
A year of Israeli airstrikes in Gaza appears to have reduced the leadership of Iranian-allied Hamas to a few survivors hiding in underground tunnels. However, Israeli forces again engaged in heavy fighting there this week, and Hamas was able to fire rockets at Tel Aviv in a surprising show of enduring strength on the Oct. 7 anniversary of the militant group's attack on Israel, which started the war.
Anticipated Israeli counterstrikes on Iran could accelerate regional shifts in power. The response would follow Iran launching ballistic missiles at Israel last week in retaliation for killings of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.
It also could escalate the risk of all-out regional war that U.S. President Joe Biden — and decades of previous administrations — worked to avert.
The expansion of Israeli attacks since late last month has sidelined mediation by the U.S., Egypt and Qatar for a cease-fire and hostage release deal in Gaza. U.S. leaders say Israel did not warn them before striking Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon but have defended the surge in attacks, while still pressing for peace.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, said in an interview with CBS' “60 Minutes” aired Monday that the U.S. was dedicated to supplying Israel with the military aid needed to protect itself but would keep pushing to end the conflict.
“We’re not going to stop in terms of putting that pressure on Israel and in the region, including Arab leaders,” she said.
Israel’s expanded strikes raise for many what is the tempting prospect of weakening Iran’s anti-Western, anti-Israel alliance with like-minded armed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen to governments in Russia and North Korea.
Called the “Axis of Resistance," Iran's military alliances grew — regionally, then globally — after the U.S. invasion of Iraq removed Saddam, who had fought an eight-year war against Iran's ambitious clerical regime.
Advocates of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and overthrow of Saddam, said correctly that an Iraqi democracy would take hold.
But the unintended effects of the U.S. intervention were even bigger, including the rise of Iran's Axis of Resistance and new extremist groups, including the Islamic State.
“An emboldened and expansionist Iran appears to be the only victor” of the 2003 Iraq war, notes a U.S. Army review of lessons learned.
“Two decades ago, who could have seen a day when Iran was supporting Russia with arms? The reason is because of its increased influence” after the U.S. overthrow of Saddam, said Ihsan Alshimary, professor of political science at Baghdad University.
Even more than in 2003, global leaders are offering little clear idea on how the shifts in power that Israel’s military is putting in motion will end — for Iran, Israel, the Middle East at large, and the United States.
Iran and its allies are being weakened, said Goldberg, at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. So is U.S. influence as it appears to be dragged along by Israel, Nasr said.
The conflict could end up hurting Israel if it bogs down in a ground war in Lebanon, for example, said Mehran Kamrava, a professor and Middle East expert at Georgetown University in Qatar.
After four decades of deep animosity between Israeli and Iranian leaders, “the cold war between them has turned into a hot war. And this is significantly changing — is bound to change — the strategic landscape in the Middle East,” he said.
“We are certainly at the precipice of change," Kamrava said. But “the direction and nature of that change is very hard to predict at this stage."
AP reporters Julia Frankel in Jerusalem and Qassim Abdul-Zahra in Baghdad contributed.
Israeli military and police work at a damaged school building that was hit by missiles fired from Iran in Gadera, Israel, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024. (AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov)
Projectiles fly through the sky in central Israel as a siren sounds a warning of incoming missiles fired from Iran towards Israel, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)
Smoke rises from destroyed buildings at the site of an Israeli airstrike hit in Choueifat, southeast of Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)
Iranian demonstrators hold posters of slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah during an anti-Israeli protest at Felestin (Palestine) Square in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
FORT MYERS BEACH, Fla. (AP) — Florida's Gulf Coast braced Tuesday for the impact of Hurricane Milton's near-record winds and expected massive storm surge, which could bring destruction to areas already reeling from Helene's devastation 12 days ago and still recovering from Ian's wrath two years ago.
Almost the entirety of Florida's west coast was under a hurricane warning early Tuesday as the Category 5 storm and its 165 mph (265 kph) winds crept toward the state at 9 mph (14 kph), sucking energy from the Gulf of Mexico's warm water. The strongest Atlantic hurricane on record is 1980's Allen, which reached wind speeds of 190 mph (306 kph) as it moved through the Caribbean and Gulf before striking Texas and Mexico.
Milton's center could come ashore Wednesday in the Tampa Bay region, which has not endured a direct hit by a major hurricane in more than a century. Scientists expect the system to weaken slightly before landfall, though it could retain hurricane strength as it churns across central Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean. That would largely spare other states ravaged by Helene, which killed at least 230 people on its path from Florida to the Appalachian Mountains.
Tampa Bay has not been hit directly by a major hurricane since 1921, and authorities fear luck is about to run out for the region and its 3.3 million residents. President Joe Biden approved an emergency declaration for Florida, and U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor said 7,000 federal workers were mobilized to help in one of the largest mobilizations of federal personnel in history.
“This is the real deal here with Milton,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor told a Monday news conference. “If you want to take on Mother Nature, she wins 100% of the time.”
The Tampa Bay area is still rebounding from Helene and its powerful surge — a wall of water up to 8 feet (2.4 meters) it created even though its eye was 100 miles (160 kilometers) offshore. Twelve people died there, with the worst damage along a string of barrier islands from St. Petersburg to Clearwater.
Forecasters warned that Milton could bring a possible 8- to 12-foot (2.4- to 3.6-meter) storm surge, leading to evacuation orders being issued for beach communities all along the Gulf coast. In Florida, that means anyone who stays is on their own and first responders are not expected to risk their lives to rescue them at the height of the storm.
Stragglers were a problem during Helene and 2022's Ian. Many residents failed to heed ample warnings, saying they evacuated during previous storms only to have major surges not materialize. But there was evidence Monday that people were getting out before Milton arrives.
A steady stream of vehicles headed north toward the Florida Panhandle on Interstate 75, the main highway on the west side of the peninsula, as residents heeded evacuation orders. Traffic clogged the southbound lanes of the highway for miles as other residents headed for the relative safety of Fort Lauderdale and Miami on the other side of the state.
About 150 miles (240 kilometers) south of Tampa, Fort Myers Beach was nearly a ghost town by Monday afternoon as an evacuation order took effect. Ian devastated the 5,000-resident community two years ago, its 15-foot (4.5-meter) storm surge destroying or severely damaging 400 homes and businesses. Fourteen people died there as they tried to ride out the storm, and dozens had to be rescued.
On Monday, the few residents who could be found were racing against the clock to safeguard their buildings and belongings. None said they were staying.
The signs of Ian's devastation remain visible everywhere. Rebuilt homes stand next to others in various states of construction. There are numerous vacant lots, which were once rare.
“This whole street used to be filled out with houses,” said Mike Sandell, owner of Pool-Rific Services. His workers were removing and storing pumps and heaters Monday from his clients' pools so they wouldn't get destroyed.
Home construction supplies like bricks, piping and even workers' outhouses lined the streets, potential projectiles that could do further damage if a surge hits.
At the beach Monday afternoon, workers busily emptied the triple-wide trailer that houses The Goodz, a combined hardware, convenience, fishing supply, ice cream and beach goods store. Owner Graham Belger said he moved his “Your Island Everything Store” into the trailer after Ian destroyed his permanent building across the street.
“We’ll rebuild, but it is going to be bad," he said.
Nearby, Don Girard and his son Dominic worked to batten down the family’s three-story combination rental and vacation home that’s about 100 feet (30.5 meters) from the water. It’s first-floor garage and entranceway were flooded by Helene last month, Hurricane Debby in August, and a tide brought by a recent supermoon.
Ian was by far the worst. Its waves crashed into the 14-year-old home’s second floor, destroying the flooring. Girard repaired the damage, and his aqua-blue and white home stands in contrast to the older, single-story house across the street. It was submerged by Ian, never repaired and remains vacant. Its once-off-white walls are now tinged with brown. Plywood covers the holes that once contained windows and doors.
Girard, who owns a banner and flag company in Texas, said that while his feelings about owning his home are mostly positive, they are becoming mixed. He said every December, his extended family gathers there for the holidays. At that time of year, temperatures in southwest Florida are usually in the 70s (low 20s Celsius) with little rain or humidity. The area and its beaches fill with tourists.
“At Christmas, there is no better place in the world,” Girard said.
But flooding from Ian, the other storms and now Milton is leaving him frustrated.
“It’s been difficult, I’m not going to lie to you," Girard said. “The last couple years have been pretty bad.”
Daley reported from Tampa. Associated Press writers Mike Schneider in Orlando, Kate Payne in Tampa, Freida Frisaro in Fort Lauderdale, Seth Borenstein in Washington, Brendan Farrington in Tallahassee and Mark Stevenson in Mexico City contributed to this report.
Workers board up a grocery store to protect it from Hurricane Milton, in Progreso, Yucatan state, Mexico, Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. (AP Photo/Martin Zetina)
A sculpture of Poseidon stands in the ocean before the arrival of Hurricane Milton in Progreso, Yucatan state, Mexico, Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. (AP Photo/Martin Zetina)
Motorists wait in line to fill gas tanks Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in Riverview, Fla., before Hurricane Milton makes landfall along Florida's gulf coast. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
Gas pumps are covered at a station Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in Clearwater Beach, Fla., ahead of the possible arrival of Hurricane Milton. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
Rob Menard, owner of Reefers Social Club, finishes putting up boards and tape over windows Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in Clearwater Beach, Fla., ahead of the possible arrival of Hurricane Milton. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
Flooring and signage is laid out at River Ridge High School as they ready the school for use as a shelter in preparation for Hurricane Milton on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in New Port Richey, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)
Shoppers load cases of water at the Costco at Costco, Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in Altamonte Springs, Fla., as residents prepare for the impact of approaching Hurricane Milton. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel via AP)
Cars wait in line to get into the parking lot for gas at Costco, Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in Altamonte Springs, Fla., as residents prepare for the impact of approaching Hurricane Milton. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel via AP)
Cars wait in line to get into the parking lot for gas at Costco, Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in Altamonte Springs, Fla., as residents prepare for the impact of approaching Hurricane Milton. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel via AP)
Salvage works remove debris from Hurricane Helene flooding along the Gulf of Mexico Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in Clearwater Beach, Fla. Crews are working to remove the debris before Hurricane Milton approaches Florida's west coast. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
Contractors with the City of New Port Richey help clean debris left by Hurricane Helene in preparation for Hurricane Milton on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in New Port Richey, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)
Jay McCoy puts up plywood in preparation for Hurricane Milton on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in New Port Richey, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)
Boats destroyed during Hurricane Helene are shown on the Davis Islands Yacht Basin ahead of the possible arrival of Hurricane Milton Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
Noah Weibel and his dog Cookie climb the steps to their home as their family prepares for Hurricane Milton on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in Port Richey, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)
