Southeast Asian leaders meet in Laos to discuss Myanmar war and disputed sea

VIENTIANE, Laos (AP) — Southeast Asian leaders gathered Wednesday for an annual forum that will focus on the civil war in Myanmar and territorial tensions in the South China Sea, two key challenges that have tested the bloc's credibility.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Laos will be followed by two days of meetings with global powers including China, the United States and Russia, which are contending for influence in the region.

The timing of the meetings in the capital, Vientiane, makes it likely the talks will also touch on the escalating conflict in the Middle East, although Southeast Asia has faced only indirect fallout.

ASEAN's influence has historically been limited even among its own members, but the forum has been a platform for engagement between superpowers and the region.

The 10 member states of ASEAN — Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar, Cambodia, Brunei and Laos — will also hold talks with other dialogue partners including Japan, South Korea, India and Australia on topics ranging from the economy, to climate change and energy.

Lao Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone welcomed new leaders from Thailand and Singapore to the summit in his opening speech.

“We help one another, and work together the ASEAN way,” he said. “We will discuss and strengthen cooperation between ASEAN members and other dialogue partners, along with upholding the unity and centrality of ASEAN.”

Thailand's Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who took the premiership in August, is the bloc's youngest leader at 38. Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong took over in May from Lee Hsien Loong, who stepped down after 20 years. Vietnam also has a new leader after President To Lam took office in August, but the country is being represented by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh.

President Joko Widodo of Indonesia, ASEAN’s biggest member, is skipping the forum as his successor Prabowo Subianto prepares to take office later this month, sending Vice President Ma’ruf Amin in his stead. It will also be the first overseas trip for Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was confirmed just last week.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will fill in for President Joe Biden at the meetings, while China will be represented by Premier Li Qiang.

Frayed U.S.-China relations, especially “escalatory and irresponsible” moves by Beijing to coerce smaller claimant countries in the disputed South China Sea, will be a major agenda item for Blinken, said Dan Kritenbrink, a top U.S. diplomat for Asia.

ASEAN members Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei , along with Taiwan have overlapping claims with China, which claims sovereignty over virtually all of the South China Sea and has become increasingly aggressive in its attempts to enforce them. ASEAN members and China have been negotiating a code of conduct to govern behavior in the sea for years, but progress has been slow. Sticky issues include disagreement on whether the pact should be binding.

Chinese and Philippine vessels have clashed repeatedly this year, and Vietnam charged last week that Chinese forces assaulted its fishermen in disputed areas in the South China Sea. China has also sent patrol vessels to areas that Indonesia and Malaysia claim as exclusive economic zones. The Philippines, a longtime U.S. ally, has been critical of other ASEAN countries for not doing more to get China to back away.

Muhammad Faizal Abdul Rahman, research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said there’s little chance of clear outcomes as those not in direct conflict with China — the region’s top trade and key investment partner — will likely prioritize ties with Beijing,

“It is the preference for conflict avoidance while getting geostrategic benefits where possible,” he said. “In reality, national interests matter more than regional interests.”

Indonesian Vice President Ma’ruf Amin called for the code of conduct to be completed by 2026 and urged high-level officials to bolster direct communications to prevent conflicts in the South China Sea. He also called Myanmar “ASEAN’s biggest internal challenge” and warned it could threaten regional stability if it remains unresolved.

Blinken is also expected to urge ASEAN to keep up its pressure on Myanmar's military leaders after “zero progress” on the bloc's peace plan that calls for cease-fire and mediation, Kritenbrink said. The U.S. is concerned over the military government's plan to hold elections next year that would be neither representative nor inclusive, and could generate more violence, he said.

“Elections should not take place prior to genuine peace and reconciliation, and we’ll continue to make that position clear,” he said.

ASEAN’s credibility has been severely tested by the war in Myanmar, where the army ousted an elected government in 2021, and fighting has continued with pro-democracy guerillas and ethnic rebels. It’s widely believed that considerably less than half the country’s territory is under the army’s control.

Thailand will host an informal ASEAN ministerial-level consultation on Myanmar in mid-December, although it is unclear who will attend from Myanmar.

“Thailand is ready to coordinate to create a concerted ASEAN effort that will lead to peace in Myanmar,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nikorndej Balangurahe told reporters.

Myanmar sent Foreign Ministry permanent secretary Aung Kyaw Moe to the summit, its first high-level representative at the summit in three years, after ASEAN barred it from sending political representatives in late 2021.

Allowing a senior Myanmar diplomat to join the meetings “will be perceived as ASEAN is compromising, confirming the concern that ASEAN is experiencing fatigue in dealing with the crisis,” said Lina Alexandra, senior researcher at Indonesia’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies. Chances for any significant breakthrough remain slim, she said.

Follow AP's Asia-Pacific coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/asia-pacific

Laos' President Thongloun Sisoulith, right, walks with Brunei Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah upon arrival to attend the opening ceremony of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Vientiane, Laos, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Dita Alangkara)

Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, right, attends the 44th the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Minister in Vientiane, Laos, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. attend the 44th the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Minister in Vientiane, Laos, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

Philippine's President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. arrives to attend the opening ceremony of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Vientiane, Laos, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Dita Alangkara)

Thailand Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra attends the 44th the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Minister in Vientiane, Laos, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

Laos Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone, center, speaks during 44th the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Minister in Vientiane, Laos, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

Lao peoples walks outside Pha That Luang T temple in Vientiane, Laos, Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

Laos policemen walk in front of Phon Tha Ya Ram Temple in Vientiane, Laos, Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

A dancer waves a ASEAN Flag as he performs during the opening ceremony of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Vientiane, Laos, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Dita Alangkara)

Dancers perform during the opening ceremony of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Vientiane, Laos, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Dita Alangkara)

From left to right, Foreign Ministry Permanent Secretary Aung Kyaw Moe, Philippine's President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, Thailand Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone, Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Brunei Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, Indonesian Vice President Ma'ruf Amin, and East Timorese Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao hold hands during the opening ceremony of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) 44th Summit in Vientiane, Laos, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (Sakchai Lalit)

An officer walks in front of flags of nations participating in the meetings of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) at the national convention center in Vientiane, Laos, Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

From left Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Brunei Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet hold hands for a photo session during the opening ceremony of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Vientiane, Laos, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Dita Alangkara)

Hurricane Milton strengthened as it churned through the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida on Wednesday and could wallop one of the state's major population centers with huge storm surges, lashing rain and destructive winds just two weeks after deadly Hurricane Helene swamped the coastline.

Milton, which returned to Category 5 status on Tuesday afternoon, is threatening the Tampa Bay area, which is home to more than 3.3 million people and has managed to evade a direct hit from a major hurricane for more than 100 years. Milton is also menacing other stretches of Florida's west coast that were battered when Helene came ashore on Sept. 26.

Traffic was thick Wednesday as people fled the Tampa area ahead of Milton. As they evacuated, crews along the coast hurried to clear Helene's debris so that Milton doesn't turn it into dangerous projectiles.

National Hurricane Center forecasters warned that Milton is “expected to be a dangerous major hurricane” when it reaches the Florida coast.

Follow The Associated Press’ coverage of tropical weather at https://apnews.com/hub/weather.

Milton is expected to make landfall on Florida's Gulf coast late Wednesday or early Thursday.

“We must be prepared for a major, major impact to the west coast of Florida,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Tuesday.

As of Wednesday morning, the storm was about 300 miles (485 kilometers) southwest of Tampa with sustained winds of 160 mph (260 kph).

“A northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected" through Wednesday night, the hurricane center said.

President Joe Biden, who postponed an overseas trip so he could remain at the White House to monitor Milton, warned that it “could be one of the worst storms in 100 years to hit Florida."

With the storm expected to remain fairly strong as it crosses Florida, hurricane warnings were extended early Tuesday to parts of the state’s east coast.

Milton is just the latest system in a storm season that scientists say is the weirdest they’ve ever seen.

Forecasters were predicting a busy Atlantic hurricane season before it started, and it began when Beryl became the earliest storm on record to reach Category 5 status. But from Aug. 20 — the traditional start of peak hurricane season — to Sept. 23 it was record quiet, said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.

Then, five hurricanes popped up between Sept. 26 and Oct. 6, more than double the old record of two. On Sunday and Monday, there were three hurricanes in October at the same time, which had never happened before, Klotzbach said. In just 46.5 hours, Hurricane Milton went from forming as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds to a top-of-the-charts Category 5 hurricane.

With hurricanes disrupting the lives of millions in the U.S., some might wonder if it's possible to control extreme weather events. But scientists say hurricanes are far too powerful for that, and climate change is providing more fuel than ever for storms like Helene and Milton.

Florida's Gulf Coast is especially vulnerable to storm surge.

Helene came ashore about 150 miles (240 kilometers) north of Tampa in the Florida Panhandle and still managed to cause drowning deaths in the Tampa area due to surges that were about 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters) above normal tide levels.

With Milton, forecasters warn of a possible 10- to 15-foot (3- to 4.5-meter) storm surge in Tampa Bay. It is the highest surge ever predicted for that location and has led to evacuation orders for communities all along the coast.

The county that’s home to Tampa ordered areas adjacent to the bay and all mobile and manufactured homes to be evacuated by Tuesday night. With a predicted storm surge that could swallow a single-story house, Tampa Mayor Jane Castor issued increasingly dire warnings Tuesday to those planning to ride out the storm: “So if you’re in it, basically that’s the coffin that you’re in."

Milton is forecast to cross central Florida and dump as much as 18 inches (46 centimeters) of rain while heading toward the Atlantic Ocean, according to the hurricane center.

Tampa International Airport halted flights Tuesday morning, posting on X that it is not a shelter for people or their cars. And nearby St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport said it is in a mandatory evacuation zone and closed after the last flight left Tuesday. It said all flights were canceled Wednesday and Thursday.

The tourism machine in Orlando, about 84 miles (135 kilometers) inland from Tampa, started grinding to a halt Tuesday. Orlando International Airport — the nation’s seventh busiest and Florida’s most trafficked — said it would cease operations Wednesday morning. And at least three major theme parks — Walt Disney World, Universal Orlando and SeaWorld — will close, with the latter two also remaining closed on Thursday and Disney likely to follow suit.

The hunt for gasoline has been compounding the stress for some Floridians.

On Tuesday, there were long lines and empty pumps at some Florida gas stations as they struggled to keep up with demand. DeSantis said state officials were working with fuel companies to continue bringing in gasoline ahead before the storm's arrival.

Although DeSantis said there wasn’t a fuel shortage, the hunt for gasoline was another nerve-fraying task for people preparing for a major hurricane. Patrick De Haan, an analyst for GasBuddy, said “replenishments are happening,” but about 17.4% of Florida stations were out of fuel as of Tuesday evening. More than 46% of the stations in the Tampa-St. Petersburg area had no gasoline as of Tuesday evening, according to GasBuddy.

“You’ve got to have patience,” Stephanie Grover-Brock, a Tampa resident in line for gasoline in the nearby Riverview area, said Tuesday.

Ned Bowman, a spokesman for the Florida Petroleum Marketers Association, said the situation was typical for a Florida hurricane — with demand peaking and some stations temporarily running dry. He said suppliers are “constantly” moving fuel to stations.

As Milton made it's way toward Florida, authorities in the Mexican state of Yucatan reported only minor storm damage. Power lines, light poles and trees were knocked down near the coast, and some small thatched-roof structures were destroyed, according to Yucatan Gov. Joaquín Díaz. He did not report any deaths or injuries.

A person rides his bike through a flooded street in the rain as Hurricane Milton passes off the coast of Progreso, Yucatan state, Mexico, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Martin Zetina)

Calm weather greets tourists strolling past the various shops at the Disney Springs entertainment complex as Hurricane Milton threatens Florida, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in Lake Buena Vista, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)

North Miami Beach, Fla., commissioner McKenzie Fleurimond, left, checks cars as residents line up to receive sandbags from the city to help prevent flooding, as Hurricane Milton prepares to strike Florida, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in North Miami Beach. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

North Miami Beach, Fla., public service worker Jean Pierre Amisial Louis holds a sandbag as workers load sandbags, to be distributed to residents as Hurricane Milton prepares to strike Florida, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in North Miami Beach. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

Duke Energy project manager Tiger Yates, bottom center, walks among the hundreds of lineman trucks staged, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. at The Villages, Fla. in preparation for Hurricane Milton. (Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel via AP)

A person takes photos at the harbor amid rain as Hurricane Milton passes near Progreso, Yucatan state, Mexico, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Martin Zetina)

Birdkeepers Austin Laroche and Madi Unwin move animals into a restroom at the Central Florida Zoo and Botanical Gardens in Sanford, Fla., Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in preparation for the impact of Hurricane Milton. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel via AP)

In this image taken with a drone, the Tampa, Fla., skyline, top right, is seen at a distance as traffic flows eastbound, left lanes, along Interstate 4 as residents continue to follow evacuation orders ahead of Hurricane Milton, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Destroyed furniture and personal items from Hurricane Helene flooding sit piled outside mobile homes in Sandpiper Resort Co-op ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Milton in Bradenton Beach on Anna Maria Island, Fla., Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

Scott Joyner looks at damaged items he removed from his garage following flooding caused by Hurricane Helene, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in Punta Gorda, Fla., as residents of of the historic neighborhood are now bracing for possible storm surge from Hurricane Milton. (AP Photo/Marta Lavandier)

A closed business is seen after Hurricane Helene ahead of Hurricane Milton's arrival, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in Treasure Island, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart)

Tyler Griffin secures his boat in preparation for Hurricane Milton on Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in New Port Richey, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)

A message is seen outside of an apartment in the Davis Islands community of Tampa, Fla., as residents prepare for the arrival of Hurricane Milton, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

A boarded up business, marked with graffiti reading "Go home Milton, U R drunk," is seen past debris from Hurricane Helene flooding piled up outside a home, ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Milton, in Holmes Beach on Anna Maria Island, Fla., Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

Susana Ortiz fills out sand bags on the beach at the Davis Islands Yacht Basin as she prepares for the arrival of Hurricane Milton, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Debris from homes flooded in Hurricane Helene sits curbside as Hurricane Milton approaches on Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in Port Richey, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)

Arnie Bellini surveys the damages caused from Hurricane Helene on a street in Clearwater Beach, Fla., Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. Bellini fronted $500,000. of his own money to help speed up debris cleanup ahead of the possible arrival of Hurricane Milton. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

A carousel stands damaged after the eye of Hurricane Milton passed off the coast of Progreso, Yucatan state, Mexico, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Martin Zetina)

A store boards up but remains open in preparation for Hurricane Milton on Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in New Port Richey, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)

A person rides his bike through a flooded street amid rain as Hurricane Milton passes off the coast of Progreso, Yucatan state, Mexico, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Martin Zetina)

Highway signage announces the impending arrival of Hurricane Milton and the evacuations zones on Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in Port Richey, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)

An LED signage truck with loudspeakers makes announcements informing residents of mandatory evacuations in preparation for Hurricane Milton on Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in Port Richey, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)

Ted Carlson puts his best friend Evan Purcell's cat McKenzie into a pick-up truck as the pair recover her along with other important items from Purcell's home ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Milton, as debris from Hurricane Helene damage to Purcell's garage level still sits alongside the driveway, in Holmes Beach on Anna Maria Island, Fla., Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. "This place couldn't handle Helene," said Carlson, predicting. "It's all going to be gone." (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

John Fedor, of New Jersey, waits for transportation help to get to a shelter after his flight was canceled Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, at the Tampa International Airport in Tampa, Fla., due to the possible arrival of Hurricane Milton. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

A sculpture of Poseidon stands in the ocean before the arrival of Hurricane Milton in Progreso, Yucatan state, Mexico, Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. (AP Photo/Martin Zetina)

Heavy traffic flows northbound on Interstate-75 as people evacuate the Tampa Bay area ahead of Hurricane Milton's arrival late Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in Ocala, Fla. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

A man boards up an apartment building to protect it from Hurricane Milton, in Progreso, Yucatan state, Mexico, Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. (AP Photo/Martin Zetina)

Contractors with the City of New Port Richey help clean debris left by Hurricane Helene in preparation for Hurricane Milton on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in New Port Richey, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)

Noah Weibel and his dog Cookie climb the steps to their home as their family prepares for Hurricane Milton on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in Port Richey, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)

Jay McCoy puts up plywood in preparation for Hurricane Milton on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in New Port Richey, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)

Owners try to secure their boat at the Davis Islands Yacht Clubs ahead a possible landfall by Hurricane Milton, Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

Jay McCoy puts up plywood in preparation for Hurricane Milton on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in New Port Richey, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)