How Waffle House helps Southerners — and FEMA — judge a storm's severity

Golden hashbrowns, gravy-smothered biscuits and crispy waffles with a hearty helping of maple syrup are among the classic Southern comfort foods. But when hurricanes tear through Southeastern towns, the hot meals and bold yellow signs of the local Waffle House provide another kind of comfort.

If a Waffle House stays open in town, even in a limited capacity, neighbors are reassured that the coming storm is unlikely to cause devastation. A closed location of the dependable diner chain has come to indicate impending disaster. The metric is known as the Waffle House Index.

What might sound like silly logic has become one of the most reliable ways for Southerners — and even federal officials — to gauge a storm's severity and identify communities most in need of immediate aid.

About two dozen Waffle House locations remained closed in the Carolinas and the chain's home state of Georgia on Tuesday, nearly two weeks after the states were among those battered by Hurricane Helene. Several other locations were open but serving a limited menu.

As Hurricane Milton barrels toward Florida communities still recovering from Helene, many Waffle House locations along the Gulf Coast, including those in Tampa, Cape Coral and St. Petersburg, have closed in preparation.

The South's favorite disaster authority provides an informal measure of how significantly a storm will affect or has affected a community.

A map of the chain's over 1,900 locations, concentrated in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, helps residents of storm-prone states assess whether they're likely to lose power, experience severe flooding or endure other extreme conditions that might cause a resilient restaurant to close its doors. For some, it's a telltale sign of whether they need to evacuate.

Waffle House is known not just for serving breakfast 24/7, 365 days a year, but also for its disaster preparedness. For decades, people across the South have noticed that the local Waffle House seemed to be the only business still open during a storm or the first to reopen after it passed.

The restaurant chain's reputation for remaining open when people desperately needed a place to warm up, charge devices and grab a hot meal became a fairly reliable — albeit amusing — source to help track recovery efforts.

Waffle House's social media shares color-coded maps of its restaurant locations in certain regions that will soon be hit or are recovering from storm damage. The Federal Emergency Management Agency also offers some live tracking.

Green means the location is serving a full menu, indicating minimal damage in the surrounding area. The lights are on and the syrup is flowing.

Yellow means the restaurant is serving a limited menu, a signal that it's pulling power from a generator and might have a low food supply. The area might not have running water or electricity, but there’s enough gas to fry up bacon for hungry customers.

Red means the location is closed, a sign of unsafe operating conditions and severe destruction to the restaurant or nearby communities.

Former FEMA administrator Craig Fugate has said he thought the Waffle House Index while leading Florida's emergency management efforts in 2004. He had been searching for something to eat while surveying the devastation left by Hurricane Charley and was only able to find a Waffle House serving a limited menu.

His team began to notice other open Waffle Houses in communities without power or running water. The restaurants eventually became a key feature on a color-coded map that his team provided to help the public and local officials identify where storm damage was most severe.

Fugate continued to use his color-coded map when he joined FEMA under President Barack Obama. He was the agency's administrator in 2011 when a deadly tornado tore through the town of Joplin, Missouri. Both of the town's Waffle Houses reportedly stayed open.

The restaurant chain's disaster readiness is no coincidence. Seven locations were destroyed and 100 more shut down in 2005 during Hurricane Katrina, but company executives saw business skyrocket at restaurants that reopened quickly.

They soon embraced a business strategy centered around keeping their restaurants operable during and after a disaster, according to the company's website. The chain said it has invested in portable generators, bought a mobile command center and trained employees on what they can still serve if they lose electricity.

Waffle House has closed many Florida locations before Hurricane Milton has made landfall, indicating the damage will likely be severe.

Milton was upgraded back to a Category 5 storm Tuesday as it churned toward Florida’s west coast. The ferocious storm could land a once-in-a-century direct hit on Tampa and St. Petersburg, engulfing the populous region with towering storm surges and turning debris from Helene’s devastation into projectiles.

A sign on a closed Waffle House on Highway US 19 in anticipation of Hurricane Milton on Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in New Port Richey, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)

FILE - A sailboat washed out of the water during Hurricane Gustav. rests next to a road in Biloxi, Miss., Sept. 3, 2008. (AP Photo/James Edward Bates/Sun Herald, File)

FILE - Only the benches remain at what was a Waffle House restaurant on the beachfront area in Gulfport, Miss., Sept. 20, 2005, following Hurricane Katrina. (AP Photo/Ric Feld, File)

FILE - A sign is all that's left of this Waffle House on the beach in Gulfport, Miss., Aug. 31, 2005. (AP Photo/Phil Coale, File)

FILE - Luke Churchill, left, stands with his wife, Mary and their children, Katie, 13, Liam, 9, and Raighan, 3, as they wait in the rain outside an open Waffle House restaurant in Wilmington, N.C., after Hurricane Florence traveled through the area, Sept. 16, 2018. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton, File)

A sign on a closed Waffle House on Highway US 19 in anticipation of Hurricane Milton on Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in New Port Richey, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)

FILE - A billboard lies atop a Waffle House restaurant after being knocked down by Hurricane Michael in Panama City, Fla., Oct. 14, 2018. (Carlos R. Munoz/Sarasota Herald-Tribune via AP, File)

Hurricane Milton dropped to a Category 4 early Wednesday as it churns toward Florida's west coast. The National Hurricane Center had predicted it would likely weaken, but remain a major hurricane when it makes landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday.

The Tampa Bay area, home to more than 3.3 million people, faced the possibility of widespread destruction after avoiding direct hits from major hurricanes for more than a century.

Follow AP’s coverage of tropical weather at https://apnews.com/hub/hurricanes.

Here’s the latest:

“This is it, folks,” Emergency Management Director Cathie Perkins said at a Wednesday morning news conference. “Those of you who were punched during Hurricane Helene, this is going to be a knockout. You need to get out and you need to get out now.”

Perkins said 13 public shelters are open for people with no other option to escape the storm and that major bridges around Tampa Bay would begin closing in the afternoon. Perkins also said people should not feel a sense of relief because of indications Milton might come ashore south of Tampa.

“Everybody in Tampa Bay should assume we are going to be ground zero.,” she said.

Human-caused climate change boosted a devastating Hurricane Helene ’s rainfall by about 10% and intensified its winds by about 11%, scientists said in a new flash study released just as a strengthening Hurricane Milton threatens the Florida coast less than two weeks later.

The warming climate boosted Helene’s wind speeds by about 13 mph (21 kph), and made the high sea temperatures that fueled the storm 200 to 500 times more likely, World Weather Attribution calculated Wednesday from Europe. Ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico were about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above average, WWA said.

“Hurricane Helene and the storms that were happening in the region anyway have all been amplified by the fact that the air is warmer and can hold more moisture, which meant that the rainfall totals — which, even without climate change, would have been incredibly high given the circumstances — were even higher,” Ben Clarke, a study co-author and a climate researcher at Imperial College London, said in an interview.

Milton will likely be similarly juiced, the authors said.

The scientists warned that continued burning of fossil fuels will lead to more hurricanes like Helene, with “unimaginable” floods well inland, not just on coasts. Many of those who died in Helene fell victim to massive inland flooding, rather than high winds.

▶ Read more about the effects of climate change on hurricanes.

In Charlotte Harbor, about two blocks from the water, Josh Parks spent Wednesday morning packing his Kia sedan with his clothes and other belongings from his small triplex apartment.

The clouds were swirling and the winds had begun to gust. Two weeks ago, Helene’s surge brought about 5 feet (1.5 meters) of water to the neighborhood, its streets still filled with waterlogged furniture, torn out drywall and other debris.

“It’s a ghost town around here,” said Parks, an auto technician.

His roommate had already fled and Parks wasn’t sure when he would be back.

“I told her to pack like you aren’t coming back,” said Parks, who was fleeing to his daughter’s inland home.

Law enforcement vehicles blocked the bridge from the mainland to the barrier island of St. Pete Beach on Wednesday morning, where as of Tuesday evening, officials had closed down access to this string of low-lying barrier islands that jut out into the Gulf.

All residents in these low-lying communities west of the city of St. Petersburg are under mandatory evacuation orders, as another storm bears down less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene killed 12 people in the Tampa Bay area, including residents who didn’t leave – and then drowned in their homes.

At a park bench on the side of the road that cuts through the small island of Deadman Key, plastic bags stuffed with clothes and a shopping cart full of someone’s personal belongings sat in the blowing rain, seemingly abandoned by its owner ahead of Hurricane Milton’s expected impact.

Three boats were already dashed against a low-lying seawall and under a bridge, apparently casualties from Helene, which sent deadly storm surge into scores of homes in Pinellas County, even as the eye of that storm stayed 100 miles (160 kilometers) offshore from this stretch of the coast.

Officials are warning that a direct hit from Hurricane Milton would bring far greater risks to this part of the state.

The National Weather Service on Wednesday morning issued the watch, which includes a vast part of Florida, including the Tampa area, the Florida Keys and Miami-Dade County.

“We’ve seen a lot of questions about, ‘well I live on a creek,’ or ‘I live on a river, is it really going to get 10 to 15 feet where I live?,’” Sarasota County Emergency Management Chief Sandra Tapfumaneyi said in a briefing early Wednesday.

“That storm surge is going to start at 10 or 15 feet near the coastline and then it’s going to travel,” she said. “And storm surge likes to go on the path of least resistance. So those of you that live near a river, that live near a creek, those river banks, their water will come up.”

“We do not want you staying in your home if you’re anywhere near a body of water,” Tapfumaneyi said.

“This is going to be an intense disaster for Sarasota County,” she added. “Evacuate now if you have not done so already.”

Boards on the window of a store display a message ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Milton, in Bradenton Beach on Anna Maria Island, Fla., Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

Members of the Florida Army National Guard stage on a beach as they prepare for the arrival of Hurricane Milton, in Bradenton Beach on Anna Maria Island, Fla., Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

A boarded up business stands beside a deserted street in an evacuation zone, ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Milton, in Anna Maria, Fla., on Anna Maria Island, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)