Lithuania votes in a weekend general election with many looking for change despite good economy

VILNIUS, Lithuania (AP) — Despite economic successes, Lithuania’s center-right coalition could be replaced by the opposition Social Democrats and smaller center-left parties when voters in the Baltic country go to the polls on Sunday.

Strict COVID-19 measures and a migration influx from neighboring Belarus have cast shadows over conservative Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė's government, which took office in 2020.

Although European Union member Lithuania has seen annual double-digit personal income growth and has one of the lowest inflation rates in the 27'nation bloc, most voters don't seem to be impressed by these factors.

“The situation in the economy is far better than for example during the hardships of 2008-2010, but people rarely attribute the gain in personal wealth to the political leadership” said Nerijus Mačiulis, an economist at Swedbank. He referred to the global financial crisis, which hit the Baltic states hard and led to austerity measures.

Rima Urbonaitė, a political analyst at Vilnius’ Mykolas Romeris University, agreed.

“There’s a lot of disappointment and discontent among voters," she said. “It is related to numerous crises and shocks and cannot be compensated by economic factors like positive change in purchasing power.”

Šimonytė has faced criticism for strict measures during the pandemic, with many complaining that her government didn’t do enough to help companies during lockdown. And others say thousands didn't have proper access to health care services.

Šimonytė also has been lambasted for her handling of migrants arriving from Belarus. Lithuania has accused Belarus, its eastern neighbor, and Russia of orchestrating the influx.

A recent survey by pollster Vilmorus says that the Social Democratic Party, led by Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, would get 18% of the votes, while Šimonytė’s Homeland Union would get 9%. Nemuno Aušra, a newly registered party of right-wing politician Remigijus Žemaitaitis, who was impeached earlier this year for making antisemitic statements, would come in at 12%.

The poll, commissioned by the Lietuvos Rytas daily and based on about 1,000 interviews, was published Oct. 4. The margin of error was 3.1 percentage points.

The Social Democrats have ruled out an alliance with Žemaitaitis’ party, meaning that three or four parties, likely small groups representing the political center, will be necessary to form a governing coalition.

“I was voting for the conservatives for my entire life, but this year I'm thinking of giving my ballot to another good party, not to them," said Darius Mikalauskas, a 51-year-old teacher in Vilnius. "Šimonytė and the entire Homeland Union looks battered, worn out and they would better spend some time on the spare bench.”

A shift to the left wouldn't bring significant changes to the foreign policy of Lithuania, which also borders Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave to the west and Belarus to the east, analysts say. But the vote comes at a time when Russia’s war in Ukraine is fueling greater fears about Moscow’s intentions, particularly in the strategically important Baltic region.

“In this country, the foreign policy course is determined mainly by the president,” Urbonaite said, adding that “trading one minister with another would not mean significant change in its political course.”

Earlier this year, President Gitanas Nauseda beat Šimonytė in the presidential election and won a second five-year term. Despite widespread criticism and decreasing popularity, the ruling party also won a majority of seats in the European Parliament election.

In 2020, the southernmost Baltic country of nearly 3 million saw Šimonytė take her Homeland Union to victory in the parliamentary election. She later formed a coalition with two liberal parties, the Freedom Party and the Liberal Movement.

Four years later, Lithuanians return to the polling stations for a first round.

About 2.4 million people are eligible to elect 141 members of the parliament, or Seimas, for a four-year term in two rounds. On Sunday, 70 lawmakers will be elected by party lists joined by those in single-mandate constituencies who manage to win more than 50% of votes. The runoff is Oct. 27, when the majority of single-member constituencies will vote to choose between the two leading candidates.

Local residents wait at a bus stop, with a poster displaying leader of the Social Democratic Party Vilija Blinkeviciute in Vilnius, Lithuania, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)

Leader of the Social Democratic Party Vilija Blinkeviciute speaks to the press at a polling station during the advance parliamentary elections in Vilnius, Lithuania, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)

Local residents vote at the polling station during the advance voting in the first round of a parliamentary election in Vilnius, Lithuania, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)

A woman leaves the polling booth at the polling station during the advance voting in the first round of a parliamentary election in Vilnius, Lithuania, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)

A man arrives at a polling station during the advance voting in the first round of a parliamentary election in Vilnius, Lithuania, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)

A woman arrives at a polling station during the advance voting in the first round of a parliamentary election in Vilnius, Lithuania, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)

Women read a ballot paper at a polling station during the advance voting in the first round of a parliamentary election in Vilnius, Lithuania, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)

A voter casts his ballot during the advance voting in the first round of a parliamentary election in Vilnius, Lithuania, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)

Freedom Party leader Ausrine Armonaite prepares to cast his ballot at a polling station during the advance voting in the first round of a parliamentary election in Vilnius, Lithuania, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)

Freedom Party leader Ausrine Armonaite speaks to the members of press at a polling station during the advance parliamentary elections in Vilnius, Lithuania, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)

Leader of the Social Democratic Party Vilija Blinkeviciute arrives at a polling station during the advance parliamentary elections in Vilnius, Lithuania, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)

Leader of the Social Democratic Party Vilija Blinkeviciute arrives at a polling station during the advance parliamentary elections in Vilnius, Lithuania, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)

A voter casts his ballot during the advance voting in the first round of a parliamentary election in Vilnius, Lithuania, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)

Local residents fills their ballots at a polling station during the advance voting in the first round of a parliamentary election in Vilnius, Lithuania, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)

Voters queue at the polling station during the advance voting in the first round of a parliamentary election in Vilnius, Lithuania, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)

FILE - Lithuania's Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte speaks during a news conference following his meeting with Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk at the government's headquarters in Vilnius, Lithuania, on March 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis, File)

FILE - A woman arrives at a polling station during the advance parliamentary elections in Vilnius, Lithuania, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis, File)

FILE - Lithuania's Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte, a presidential candidate, casts her vote at a polling station during the advance presidential elections in Vilnius, Lithuania, Thursday, May 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis, File)

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — Taiwan celebrated its National Day holiday Thursday against the background of threats from China, which claims the self-governing island republic as its own territory.

The celebration marks the establishment of the Republic of China, which overthrew the Qing Dynasty in 1911 and fled to Taiwan as Mao Zedong’s Communists swept to power on the mainland during a civil war in 1949. Taiwan was run under martial law until transitioning to full democracy in the 1980s and 1990s but maintains the original constitution brought from China and the ROC flag.

President Lai Ching-te took office in May, continuing the eight-year rule of the Democratic Progressive Party that rejects China’s demand that it recognize Taiwan is a part of China. The Nationalists adhere to a unification stance that recognizes both sides of the Taiwan Strait as a single nation.

In a speech marking the holiday, Lai spoke of Taiwan's technology achievements such as those driving the computer chips industry, calling it a “global force for prosperity and development.” He also praised athletes such as boxer Lin Yu-ting, who won gold at the Paris Olympics, and young people who have won prizes in international technical competitions.

Thursday’s commemorations included military displays, but no heavy military equipment as seen in years past. And it included performances with music and flag and athletic feats like flips and other stunts.

Addressing the threat from China, Lai took a firm but measured line while offering cooperation on areas from fighting infectious diseases to maintaining “regional peace and stability.”

“We hope that China will live up to the expectations of the international community, that it will apply its influence and work with other countries toward ending Russia's invasion of Ukraine and end conflicts in the Middle East,” Lai said.

“And we hope that (China) will take up its international responsibilities and, along with Taiwan, contribute to the peace, security and prosperity of the region and the globe,” the president said.

Maintaining its military pressure on Taiwan, China's People's Liberation Army sent 15 planes across the median line in the Taiwan Strait, prompting Taiwan to scramble jets, dispatch ships and activate missile systems.

In response to such threats, Taiwan has ordered billions of dollars in fighter jets, tanks, missiles and various upgrades to existing gear from the U.S., while revitalizing its own defense industry with the production of submarines and other equipment aimed at deterring or fending off a Chinese attack.

At the same time, Taiwan faces economic threats from China ranging from a possible blockade of the trade-dependent island to an undermining of its financial system. China routinely states that Taiwan independence is a “dead end” and that annexation by Beijing is a historical inevitability.

Lai appeared to address such issues in his address, saying: “Finally, we must strengthen resilience throughout Taiwan in national defense, economic livelihoods, disaster prevention and democracy.”

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Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te delivers a speech during National Day celebrations in front of the Presidential Building in Taipei, Taiwan, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Chiang Ying-ying)

A military honor guard attends National Day celebrations in front of the Presidential Building in Taipei, Taiwan, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Chiang Ying-ying)

A person poses with Taiwan's national flag for a photo during National Day celebrations in front of the Presidential Building in Taipei, Taiwan, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Chiang Ying-ying)

A person poses with a slogan reading "Honor Time" for a photo during National Day celebrations in front of the Presidential Building in Taipei, Taiwan, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Chiang Ying-ying)

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te waves during National Day celebrations in front of the Presidential Building in Taipei, Taiwan, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Chiang Ying-ying)