WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump promises the biggest deportation event the U.S. has ever seen if he is elected — a promise he has predicated, in part, on the notion that immigrants in the U.S. legally and illegally are stealing what he calls “Black jobs” and “Hispanic jobs.”
But government data show immigrant labor contributes to economic growth and provides promotional opportunities for native-born workers. And a mass deportation event would cost U.S. taxpayers up to a trillion dollars and could cause the cost of living, including food and housing, to skyrocket, economists say.
Here's a look at immigration and the U.S. labor market, and what Trump's plan would mean for the U.S. economy.
Trump, who often uses anti-immigrant rhetoric, has referred during his campaign to immigrants he says are taking “Black jobs” and “Hispanic jobs.”
At a recent rally in Reading, Pennsylvania, Trump said, “You have an invasion of people into our country.”
“They’re going to be attacking — and they already are — Black population jobs, the Hispanic population jobs, and they’re attacking union jobs too,” Trump said. “So when you see the border, it’s not just the crime. Your jobs are being taken away too.”
Trump's rhetoric about jobs has been widely condemned by Democrats and Black leaders who have called it a racist and insulting way of implying that Black and Hispanic Americans take menial jobs.
Janiyah Thomas, the director of Team Trump Black Media, told The Associated Press that Democrats “continue to prioritize the interests of illegal immigrants over our own Black Americans who were born in this country” and that Biden-era job gains in the labor market were primarily due to illegal immigration.
The latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey data shows that as of 2023, native-born Black workers are most predominantly employed in management and financial operations, sales and office support roles, while native-born Latino workers are most often employed in management, office support, sales and service occupations.
Foreign-born, noncitizen Black workers are most often represented in transportation and health care support roles, and foreign-born, noncitizen Hispanic workers are most often represented in construction, building and grounds cleaning.
In 2023, international migrants — primarily from Latin America — accounted for more than two-thirds of the population growth in the United States, and so far this decade they have made up almost three-quarters of U.S. growth.
After hitting a record high in December 2023, the number of migrants crossing the border has plummeted.
The claim that immigrants are taking employment opportunities from native-born Americans is repeated by Trump’s advisers. They often cite a report produced by Steven Camarota, research director for the Center for Immigration Studies, a right-leaning think tank that seeks a reduced immigration flow into the U.S. The report combines job numbers for immigrants in the U.S. legally and illegally to reinforce the claim that foreigners are disproportionately driving U.S. labor growth and reaping most of the benefits.
Camarota’s report states that 971,000 more U.S.-born Americans were employed in May 2024 compared to May 2019, prior to the pandemic, while the number of employed immigrants has increased by 3.2 million.
It is true that international migrants have become a primary driver of population growth this decade, increasing their share of the overall population as fewer children are being born in the U.S. compared with years past. That’s according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey.
Economists who study immigrant labor’s impact on the economy say that people who are in the U.S. illegally are not taking native citizens’ jobs, because the roles that these immigrant workers take on are most often positions that native workers are unwilling to fill, such as agriculture and food processing jobs.
Giovanni Peri, a labor economist at the University of California, Davis, conducted research that explores the impact of the 1980 influx of Cuban immigrants in Miami (the so-called Mariel Boatlift) on Black workers’ employment. The study determined that the wages of Miami’s Black and Hispanic workers moved above those in other cities that did not have a surge of immigrant workers.
Peri told the AP that the presence of new immigrant labor often improves employment outcomes for native-born workers, who often have different language and skill sets compared to new immigrants.
In addition, there are not a fixed number of jobs in the U.S., immigrants tend to contribute to the survival of existing firms (opening up new opportunities for native workers) and there are currently more jobs available than there are workers available to take them. U.S. natives have low interest in working in labor-intensive agriculture and food production roles.
“We have many more vacancies than workers in this type of manual labor, in fact we need many more of them to fill these roles,” Peri said.
Stan Marek, who employs roughly 1,000 workers at his Houston construction firm, Marek Brothers Holdings LLC, said he has seen this firsthand.
Asked if immigrants in the U.S. illegally are taking jobs from native-born workers, he said, “Absolutely not, unequivocally.”
“Many of my workers are retiring, and their kids are not going to come into construction and the trades," Marek said. He added that the U.S. needs an identification system that addresses national security concerns so those who are in the country illegally can work.
“There’s not enough blue-collar labor here,” he said.
Data also shows when there are not enough workers to fill these roles, firms will automate their jobs with machines and technology investments, rather than turn to native workers.
Dartmouth University economist Ethan Lewis said, “There is a vast amount of research on the labor market impact of immigration in the U.S., most of which concludes the impact on less-skilled workers is fairly small and, if anything, jobs for U.S.-born workers might by created rather than ‘taken’ by immigrants.”
Trump has said he would focus on rounding up migrants by deploying the National Guard, whose troops can be activated on orders of a governor.
Peri says a deportation program would cost the U.S. up to a trillion dollars and would result in massive losses to the U.S. economy. The cost of food and other basic items would soar.
“They are massive contributors to our economy and we wouldn't have fruits and vegetables, we wouldn't have our gardens,” he said, if the deportation effort comes to fruition.
Since the labor force made up of people in the U.S. illegally makes up roughly 4% of U.S. GDP annually, he estimates that mass deportation would result in a roughly $1 trillion loss.
“It's a cost that is mind-boggling in terms of income loss, production loss and there will be a logistical cost to organize this," he said.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said this month in a podcast interview with David Axelrod that immigrant labor “is an important source of labor force growth.”
"On balance, it helps the economy grow without actually depriving other people of jobs,” she said. “It's not in any way a zero-sum game.”
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Grand Sierra Resort and Casino, Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, in Reno, Nev. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
LOS ANGELES (AP) — The Los Angeles Dodgers shelled out $1 billion for Japanese talent in the offseason and it's paying off in the playoffs.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto outdueled Yu Darvish in a historic playoff matchup of Japanese-born starters, and the Dodgers got home runs from Kiké Hernández and Teoscar Hernández to beat the San Diego Padres 2-0 on Friday and advance to the National League Championship Series.
“It's pretty sweet,” a smiling Freddie Freeman said.
Yamamoto allowed two hits over five innings for the Dodgers, getting pulled after 63 pitches in a decisive Game 5 between heated NL West rivals who were meeting in a Division Series for the third time in five years.
He signed a $325 million, 12-year deal in December, shortly after the Dodgers lured superstar Shohei Ohtani from the Los Angeles Angels with a record $700 million, 10-year contract.
Ohtani and the Dodgers will play the wild-card New York Mets in the best-of-seven NLCS starting Sunday in Los Angeles.
"We’re ready for the next level,” manager Dave Roberts said.
The Dodgers won a decisive Game 5 at home for the first time since taking a 1981 NL Division Series against Houston after a season split into halves following a players' strike.
“We went through a lot of injuries, a lot of ups and a lot of downs. We fight, we fight and keep going,” star outfielder Mookie Betts said. “All season everybody says the Dodgers are winning the World Series, the Dodgers are winning the World Series. And we get to this series, and all of a sudden we’re the underdog.”
Boasting the majors’ best regular-season record of 98-64, they successfully avoided a third straight NLDS elimination.
“We'd been in a little bit of a DS funk,” said Andrew Friedman, president of baseball operations. “For the guys that had been there, they could feel that after we got down 2-1. The new guys wanted no part of that.”
The Padres’ big hitters went bust with their season on the line. Three-time batting champion Luis Arraez, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jurickson Profar and Manny Machado were 1 for 14 in Game 5 as Los Angeles pitchers retired their last 19 batters.
“Everybody was picking them to win because we have no pitching, we can't hit with runners in scoring position, this and that,” a soaked Kiké Hernández said. “We're the ones popping bottles now.”
San Diego's powerful lineup went scoreless for the final 24 innings of the series, dropping the last two games after taking a 2-1 lead back home.
“I think stunning is appropriate,” Padres manager Mike Shildt said.
Machado added, “It’s a devastating one for sure.”
Yamamoto and Darvish were the first Japanese-born starting pitchers to square off in major league playoff history. The 26-year-old Yamamoto was the fifth rookie to start a winner-take-all game in Dodgers history.
“It was awesome to be able to pitch with him, to share the mound on such a big stage,” Darvish said through an interpreter. “He’s not just a great pitcher, but he is a great human being, too. It was a great night for both of us.”
Yamamoto joined Orel Hershiser, Jerry Reuss, Sandy Koufax and Johnny Podres as the only Dodgers pitchers with a scoreless start of at least five innings in a winner-take-all postseason game.
“For Yamamoto, I don’t think any of us can appreciate the pressure on a global scale," Roberts said. "He was pitching for the country of Japan.”
Yamamoto handed the ball to a stellar bullpen that carried the Dodgers during the regular season when their starters were hit hard by injuries. Evan Phillips got five outs, fanning Profar and Machado in the seventh before Alex Vesia whiffed rookie standout Jackson Merrill to end the inning.
Vesia was warming up for the eighth when he exited with an injury. Michael Kopech came on and worked a perfect inning before Blake Treinen got three quick outs for his third career postseason save and second of the series.
With that, the NL West champs spilled out of the dugout for hugs and then headed back into their clubhouse for another celebration. Clayton Kershaw, Gavin Lux, Kopech, Walker Buehler and Tyler Glasnow huddled in a corner smoking victory cigars.
In the middle of the room, its carpet drenched in alcohol and music blaring, a laughing Ohtani delighted in opening bottles of beer and pouring them over the heads of teammates and staff members.
“Anytime you’re smelling like champagne, it means you’re doing something good,” Betts said.
The 38-year-old Darvish, who was Ohtani's childhood idol, gave up an early home run to Kiké Hernández, then set down 14 in a row. Teoscar Hernández’s homer chased Darvish in the seventh and made it 2-0.
The Padres and Dodgers combined to retire 26 consecutive batters — the longest streak in a single game in postseason history.
Darvish gave up three hits in 6 2/3 innings, struck out four and walked one. He dropped to 0-5 in elimination games — four of them quality starts.
“I thought Yu was magnificent again. Had them off balance. Couple of swings got him. Other than that, he was really good,” Shildt said.
Darvish and Ohtani teamed to help win last year’s World Baseball Classic for Japan, but they were rivals Friday. Ohtani struck out three times, including twice against Darvish in a game watched on Saturday morning in Japan.
“A lot of fans were looking forward to today’s matchup,” Yamamoto said through an interpreter.
Ohtani hit a tying three-run homer in Game 1, his playoff debut, but was mostly quiet the rest of the series after becoming the first player in major league history to reach 50 homers and 50 stolen bases in a season.
The teams combined to score 43 runs in the first five games of the series, but the winner-take-all finale was a tense pitching affair in front of a sellout crowd of 53,183 that included Los Angeles Lakers superstar LeBron James and a Hollywood contingent of Brad Pitt, Rob Lowe, Bryan Cranston and Jimmy Kimmel.
The wild-card Padres ended the series scoreless since the second inning of Game 3. They became the first team to lead 2-1 in a best-of-five series and fail to push across a run in the final two games.
Yamamoto successfully covered first base three times after inducing grounders, making it easier on Freeman who started after missing Game 4 with a sprained right ankle.
The Dodgers led 1-0 on the drive by Kiké Hernández with two outs in the second. It was the 14th career postseason homer for Kiké Hernández, who was brought back to the Dodgers this season to make an impact in October.
Los Angeles staved off elimination in San Diego with an 8-0 victory in Game 4 to force the deciding game back home, where fans tossing balls and trash on the field caused a 12-minute delay in a Game 2 loss. The public-address announcer warned fans in the middle of the fifth Friday not to throw objects or go on the field.
TRAINER'S ROOM
Roberts said Vesia complained of cramping. He will have X-rays and an MRI.
UP NEXT
The Dodgers are headed to the NLCS for the 16th time overall and first since 2021 when they lost to Atlanta in six games. Los Angeles went 4-2 against the Mets during the regular season.
The Padres head into the offseason with plenty of promise for next year. They challenged the Dodgers for the NL West title down to the final days of the regular season.
AP MLB: https://apnews.com/MLB
Actor Rob Lowe celebrates on the field after the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the San Diego Padres in Game 5 of a baseball NL Division Series Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill, left, looks on alongside relief pitcher Jeremiah Estrada, center, and catcher Kyle Higashioka after a loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 5 of a baseball NL Division Series Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Los Angeles Dodgers' Yoshinobu Yamamoto, left, and Shohei Ohtani celebrate in the clubhouse after a win over the San Diego Padres in Game 5 of a baseball NL Division Series Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
Los Angeles Dodgers' Teoscar Hernández, left, gets sunflower seeds to the face to celebrate his solo home run as Mookie Betts (50) looks on during the seventh inning in Game 5 of a baseball NL Division Series against the San Diego Padres, Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
Los Angeles Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani applauds in the dugout during the second inning in Game 5 of a baseball NL Division Series against the San Diego Padres, Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
San Diego Padres pitcher Yu Darvish gets a ball back as he pitches during the fifth inning in Game 5 of a baseball NL Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
Los Angeles Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani (17) waits to bat as San Diego Padres starting pitcher Yu Darvish, right, throws during the fifth inning in Game 5 of a baseball NL Division Series against the San Diego Padres, Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, left, shakes hands with catcher Will Smith after San Diego Padres' Fernando Tatis Jr. grounded into a double play during the third inning in Game 5 of a baseball NL Division Series Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
Los Angeles Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani pops out during the third inning in Game 5 of a baseball NL Division Series against the San Diego Padres, Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
San Diego Padres starting pitcher Yu Darvish throws to a Los Angeles Dodgers batter during the third inning in Game 5 of a baseball NL Division Series Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
San Diego Padres pitcher Yu Darvish, bottom center, throws to Los Angeles Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani during the first inning in Game 5 of a baseball NL Division Series Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Los Angeles Dodgers' Kiké Hernández celebrates as he rounds first base following his solo home run during the second inning in Game 5 of a baseball NL Division Series against the San Diego Padres, Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
San Diego Padres starting pitcher Yu Darvish throws to a Los Angeles Dodgers batter during the first inning in Game 5 of a baseball NL Division Series Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Los Angeles Dodgers' Kiké Hernández celebrates as he rounds second base following his solo home run during the second inning in Game 5 of a baseball NL Division Series against the San Diego Padres, Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Los Angeles Dodgers' Kiké Hernández (8) celebrates his solo home run with Shohei Ohtani, center, and Teoscar Hernández during the second inning in Game 5 of a baseball NL Division Series against the San Diego Padres, Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto throws to a San Diego Padres batter during the second inning in Game 5 of a baseball NL Division Series Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
