AP VoteCast: How Americans voted in 2020, and what it could mean for 2024

WASHINGTON (AP) — As Election Day draws nearer, Democrat Kamala Harris is trying to maintain a diverse coalition of voters who were driven four years ago by their fierce opposition to Republican Donald Trump and anxiety over a deadly pandemic.

The former president, meanwhile, is looking to deepen gains among groups, such as men without college degrees, with whom he's already shown strength, and erode Harris' support among Hispanic Americans and other key demographics.

AP VoteCast, a sweeping survey of the electorate, tells the story of how Democrat Joe Biden won and Trump lost in 2020, and what those results could mean for the 2024 election. We'll know whether the candidates were able to expand their coalitions — or build new ones — when results from the 2024 VoteCast survey are released on Election Day.

Biden's victory four years ago was decisive but not overwhelming, leaving Harris with a challenge — she either needs to match his broad base of support, or shape a new winning coalition of her own.

According to AP VoteCast, Biden won clear majorities of college graduates, women and younger voters. He won around two-thirds of urban voters and more than half of suburbanites. He got the backing of around three-quarters of non-white voters, including about 9 in 10 Black voters and 6 in 10 Hispanic voters. And in addition to securing these groups, many of which have historically favored Democrats, Biden also won moderate voters and cut into Trump's support among white women and young white voters.

Unlike Biden, Harris has tapped into the energy around her campaign by holding large rallies. But she's also acknowledged the diversity of her coalition with various Zoom meetings that have targeted demographic groups such as “Black Women for Harris,” “Black Men for Harris,” “Latinas for Harris,” “Cat Ladies for Kamala" and “Dads for Kamala,” among other groups.

She has pushed hard to reach women by having a sit-down with the TV legend Oprah Winfrey and the podcast “Call Her Daddy.” She's made direct outreach with labor unions that are part of the turnout operation in swing states, while also, as a Howard University alum, tapping into her connection with historically Black colleges, universities, fraternities and sororities.

Trump, meanwhile, held onto his base of white voters without a college degree, rural voters and religious conservatives in 2020.

He remained competitive in 2020, despite losing the popular vote, because these are large blocs and he won many of them decisively. In 2020, VoteCast found that about three-quarters of U.S. voters were white and 55% of them backed Trump. The president secured the support of around 8 in 10 white evangelical Christian voters. He won 6 in 10 voters living in small towns and rural areas, and was backed by roughly 6 in 10 white voters without college degrees.

It wasn't enough to win him the White House four years ago, but his coalition is large enough for him to remain competitive in what will be his third time on a presidential ballot. White voters without college degrees represented about 43% of all voters in 2020, a foundation for his support that he has nurtured this year through large outdoor rallies and social media posts.

Trump, too, has gone on podcasts that tend to be popular with younger men, as well as courting major tech investors such as Elon Musk, who appeared with him at a recent Butler, Pennsylvania, rally that commemorated a prior assassination attempt. The former president has also publicly tried to court Black and Hispanic voters in his speeches. And he has also leaned into his brand as a businessman this campaign by launching a cryptocurrency business and selling sneakers and wristwatches, among other products.

But the 2020 election also took place at a very different moment for the country. Voters' top issue in 2020 — the COVID-19 pandemic — is barely registering for Americans now. Four years ago, about 4 in 10 voters said the pandemic was the most important issue confronting the country and around three-quarters of those voters supported Biden.

The shift in issues could be helpful for Trump — but it's not a guarantee. Inflation, immigration and abortion appear to be commanding most attention. Even in 2020, about half of voters said Trump was better able to handle the economy, while about 4 in 10 said this about Biden. There are signs that views on the economy are increasingly shaped by people's own political views, and Harris is trying to erode the Republicans' past advantage on the economy by focusing on policies to help middle class households manage costs.

The 2020 election was also in part a referendum on Trump, who was then the incumbent president. And while about 6 in 10 voters described their vote as mainly for their candidate, a sizable number — around 4 in 10 — said they were mostly voting against a candidate.

Harris has tried to suggest that, as a younger candidate who has never been president, she represents change, whereas Trump is also campaigning as a change candidate because he would break with Biden’s policies.

Many voters have signaled that they want a change and were initially unhappy about a Biden-Trump rematch, a concern that was allayed somewhat when Biden departed the race after a disastrous June 27 debate against Trump. In December 2023, an AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll found that 58% of U.S. adults said they would be dissatisfied if Trump was the Republican nominee, and 56% would be unhappy if Biden was the Democratic nominee.

The desire for change can be seen in higher enthusiasm among Democrats for Harris over Biden in AP-NORC polling since her emergence as a candidate. In September, polling found that more voters thought the phrase “would change the country for the better” described Harris, compared to Trump.

AP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, NPR, PBS NewsHour, Univision News, USA Today Network, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press. The 2020 survey of 110,485 voters was conducted for eight days, concluding as polls closed. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The survey combines a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files; self-identified registered voters using NORC’s probability based AmeriSpeak panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population; and self-identified registered voters selected from nonprobability online panels. The margin of sampling error for voters is estimated to be plus or minus 0.4 percentage points. Find more details about AP VoteCast’s methodology at https://apnews.com/ap-votecast-faq.

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump gestures after speaking at an event marking one year since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in Miami. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris boards Air Force Two at Charlotte Douglas International Airport, Saturday, October 5, 2024, in Charlotte, N.C., after a briefing on the damage from Hurricane Helene. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

President Joe Biden speaks to the media before boarding Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Ben Curtis)

NEW DELHI (AP) — A diplomatic row that has strained bilateral relations between India and Canada for over a year has boiled over as the countries expelled each other’s top diplomats over the killing of a Sikh activist in Canada and allegations of other crimes.

Experts say the diplomatic standoff will make it difficult for both countries to move forward with a once-promising partnership, and could impact India’s ambitions as it tries to project itself as a rising world power.

“India-Canada bilateral relations, which have been on a downslide since last year, will take a further hit which will take a long time to repair,” said Praveen Donthi, senior analyst with the International Crisis Group.

Monday’s tit-for-tat expulsions came after Canada told India on Sunday that its top diplomat in the country is a person of interest in the 2023 assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, and that police have uncovered evidence of an intensifying campaign against Canadian citizens by agents of the Indian government.

Canadian Foreign Minister, Mélanie Joly also tied five other expelled Indian officials to Nijjar’s assassination and said Canada had gathered “ample, clear and concrete evidence which identified six individuals as persons of interest in the Nijjar case.”

India foreign ministry rejected the accusations as absurd, and said it was expelling Canada’s acting high commissioner and five other diplomats in response.

New Delhi’s anxieties about Sikh separatist groups have long been a strain on its relationship with Canada, where some 2% of the population is Sikh. India has increasingly accused Justin Trudeau’s government of giving free rein to Sikh separatists from a once-strong movement to create an independent Sikh homeland known as Khalistan.

Nijjar was a local leader of the Khalistan movement, which is banned in India. India designated him a terrorist in 2020, and at the time of his death was seeking his arrest for alleged involvement in an attack on a Hindu priest in India.

India’s foreign ministry in its statement Monday ascribed Canada’s allegations to the “political agenda of the Trudeau government." The Canadian leader faces national elections next year.

Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center, an American think tank, said India's strong reaction is partly explained by how publicly Canada has made its accusations.

“New Delhi is extremely sensitive to any external criticism of its policies. And yet Canada isn’t only criticizing Indian policy. Its government, on the highest levels, is publicly voicing some of the most serious allegations that another government can make,” he said.

Last year, in response to similar allegations made by Trudeau, India told Canada to remove 41 of its 62 diplomats in the country.

Kugelman said the relationship is on “life support right now” and India’s concerns about the Khalistan movement in Canada “is essentially holding the relationship hostage.”

Canada is not the only country that has accused Indian officials of plotting an association on foreign soil.

Last year, U,S, prosecutors said an Indian government official directed a failed plot to assassinate another Sikh separatist leader in New York. The official was neither charged nor identified by name, but was described as a “senior field officer” with responsibilities in security management and intelligence.

New Delhi at the time expressed concern after the U.S. raised the issue and said India takes it seriously. On Monday, the U.S. State Department said in a statement that an Indian inquiry committee set up to investigate the plot would travel to Washington on Tuesday as part of its ongoing investigations.

Canada’s foreign minister on Monday noted that India is cooperating with U.S. officials but said it had refused to cooperate in the Canadian investigation.

Donthi said India’s diplomatic posturing against Canada was more aggressive because of the relatively low stakes.

“The U.S.-India relations also have a larger geopolitical framework and context, unlike India’s relations with Canada,” Donthi said, adding that India's strong reaction was also meant to deliver a message to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's supporters at home.

“Any public criticism is anathema to the Indian government, which is personified Modi. Such aggressive reaction is aimed at the international community and, more importantly, at Modi’s domestic constituency,” he said.

Yet, experts say the standoff could have ramifications for Modi's global ambitious as he seeks to cast India as a rising global power and grows closer to the U.S., which like India is watching China’s growing assertiveness with concern.

Donthi said the growing rift between India and Canada will also "impact the growing strategic understanding between the U.S. and Western democracies” that are wooing New Delhi as a counterweight to Beijing.

“The Canadian allegations against India come against the grain, as New Delhi has been enjoying a favorable external environment,” Donthi said. “This will throw a spanner in the works for India’s great power ambitions.”

FILE - Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, left, walks past India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi as they take part in a wreath-laying ceremony at Raj Ghat, Mahatma Gandhi's cremation site, during the G20 Summit in New Delhi, Sept. 10, 2023. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

Canada-India ties could take a long time to recover

Canada-India ties could take a long time to recover