The world is set to make abundant energy by the second half of the decade as the production of batteries and solar panels surges but there'll also be an excess of planet-warming fossil fuels, according to a report released Wednesday by the International Energy Agency.
“We’re now moving at speed into the Age of Electricity,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a press statement marking the release of the annual World Energy Outlook. Energy worldwide will "increasingly be based on clean sources of electricity,” he said.
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The Schkopau coal-fired power plant operates in Teutschenthal, near Halle, eastern Germany, Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Matthias Schrader)
Wind turbines operate at the Klettwitz Nord solar energy park near Klettwitz, Germany, Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Matthias Schrader)
FILE - A solar farm operates near a chemical plant on the outskirts of Weifang in eastern China's Shandong province on March 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan, File)
FILE - A Chinese electric vehicle charges in Beijing, Monday, June 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Andy Wong, File)
A pumpjack operates in the foreground while wind turbines at the Buckeye Wind Energy wind farm work in the distance, Monday, Sept. 30, 2024, near Hays, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
But the report also notes that the world’s pace away from fossil fuels is still way off what's needed to cap warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial times — the limit set in the Paris Agreement — because emissions would decline too slowly.
It puts the world on pace to hit 2.4 degrees (4.3 Fahrenheit) of warming.
China in particular — the world's current biggest emitter of greenhouse gases but also the main manufacturer of solar panels and batteries — is driving global energy trends, the report said.
In recent years, China has accounted for most of the growth in oil demand, but electric vehicles now make up 40% of new sales of cars there, and 20% of sales globally, putting major oil and gas producers “in a bind.”
The report indicates that China's emissions of planet-warming gases may peak by 2025, but “given the changes underway in China we think that might be a bit pessimistic,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics.
Hare said “there's every chance” China's emissions have already peaked in 2023, but more data is needed to be sure.
China already accounts for half the world’s electric cars on the road. By 2030, it’s projected that 70% of new car sales in China will be electric. With its massive additions of new wind and solar power, China is aligned with its target for addressing climate change.
The report outlines a future where EV adoption continues to gain momentum, potentially displacing up to 6 million barrels per day of oil demand by 2030. The agency said based on current trends and policies and the availability of materials, EVs will reach 50% of global car sales in 2030.
The clean energy expansion, however, is happening alongside a rise in demand for energy, including power produced by burning coal, according to the Paris-based agency. "This has meant that even as we saw record growth in clean energy installations and additions, emissions kept increasing,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the think tank Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
Electricity demand is growing even faster than expected, “driven by light industrial consumption, electric mobility, cooling, and data centers and AI,” the report said. The contours of switching heating, vehicles and some industry over to electricity, it said, are beginning to become clear.
Globally, the IEA said that the expansion of wind and solar power alongside the increasing adoption of EVs will ensure a peak in demand for coal, oil and gas within the decade, with carbon emissions also reaching their highest point and ramping downward.
As China’s rapidly switches toward batteries and renewable energy, oil companies find they can sell more of their product to India.
The IEA projects that India will add nearly two million barrels per day of oil to its demand by 2035, potentially offering a lifeline to oil producers looking to offset declining growth in other regions.
Associated Press reporters Seth Borenstein in Washington, D.C. and Sibi Arasu in New Delhi contributed.
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The Schkopau coal-fired power plant operates in Teutschenthal, near Halle, eastern Germany, Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Matthias Schrader)
Wind turbines operate at the Klettwitz Nord solar energy park near Klettwitz, Germany, Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Matthias Schrader)
FILE - A solar farm operates near a chemical plant on the outskirts of Weifang in eastern China's Shandong province on March 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan, File)
FILE - A Chinese electric vehicle charges in Beijing, Monday, June 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Andy Wong, File)
A pumpjack operates in the foreground while wind turbines at the Buckeye Wind Energy wind farm work in the distance, Monday, Sept. 30, 2024, near Hays, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
Israeli jets struck Beirut's southern suburbs early Wednesday for the first time in six days, Lebanese state media reported. Israel says it is striking Hezbollah assets in the suburbs, where the militant group has a strong presence, but is also a busy residential and commercial area. The casualty count was not yet clear.
Hezbollah acting leader Sheikh Naim Kassem declared Tuesday that the Lebanese militant group will ramp up attacks on Israel in response to an Israeli airstrike Monday on an apartment building in northern Lebanon that killed at least 22 people. Israel said it struck a target belonging to Hezbollah, but the United Nations called Tuesday for an independent investigation.
Israel has escalated its campaign against Hezbollah in recent weeks, after a year of near-daily exchanges of cross-border fire.
It’s been more than a year since Hamas-led militants blew holes in Israel’s security fence and stormed in, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting another 250. Israel’s offensive in Gaza has killed over 42,000 Palestinians, according to local health authorities, who do not distinguish combatants from civilians. The war has destroyed large areas of Gaza and displaced about 90% of its population of 2.3 million people.
In northern Gaza, Israel has been waging an air and ground campaign in Jabaliya for more than a week, leaving families trapped in their shelters.
United States President Joe Biden’s administration warned Israel that it must increase the amount of humanitarian aid it allows into Gaza within the next 30 days or risk losing access to American weapons funding.
Here's the latest:
PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron stressed “the absolute necessity of a ceasefire without further delay in Lebanon” and called for Israel “cease” operations in the country in a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday.
Macron also expressed “indignation” after Israel fired on and wounded several U.N. peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, according to a statement from Macron’s office. He urged Israel “to put an end to this unjustifiable targeting.”
France will continue to work with troop contributors and alongside the U.N. Secretary-General to ensure the full implementation of the mission of the peacekeeping force known as UNIFIL, the statement said.
Netanyahu said in a statement after the call that he was opposed to a unilateral cease-fire. He said he would not agree to any arrangement that does not provide security for residents of northern Israel and “does not stop Hezbollah from rearming and regrouping.”
TEHRAN, Iran — Iran is ready for a retaliatory attack from Israel, the Foreign Ministry said Wednesday.
In a phone call Tuesday with United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country is fully prepared to answer to any kind of “adventure-seeking.”
“Responsibility of consequences of spreading insecurity in the region will be on the regime and the United States as main supporter,” of Israel, he added.
He urged the U.N. to use its entire capacity for stopping “crimes and invasions,” as well as providing humanitarian aid to Lebanon and Gaza.
Iran launched some 180 missiles at Israel on Oct. 1 in retaliation for the deaths of Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Israel has threatened to strike back for the barrage.
Iran is the main backer of Lebanese Hezbollah and supports anti-Israeli groups in the region such as Palestinian Hamas.
BEIRUT — Israeli jets struck the southern suburbs of Beirut early Wednesday for the first time in six days, Lebanese state media reported. The casualty count was not yet clear.
The attack comes just one day after caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said the United States government gave him some assurances of Israel easing its strikes in the Lebanese capital.
Israel says it is striking Hezbollah assets in the suburbs, where the militant group has a strong presence, but is also a busy residential and commercial area. The Israeli military said the Wednesday strike hit a weapons warehouse stored under a residential building.
The Israeli military posted an evacuation warning on X, formerly Twitter, saying it is targeting a building in the Haret Hreik neighborhood. An Associated Press photographer who witnessed the strikes said there were three in the area. The first strike was documented less than an hour after the notice.
Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel on Oct. 8 in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group Hamas, following their surprise attack on southern Israel. Almost one year of low-level fighting has turned into all-out war and displaced some 1.2 million people in Lebanon.
Elsewhere, Israeli strikes late Tuesday in the southern town of Qana killed at least 15 people, according to Lebanese Civil Defense.
MANILA, Philippines — A European Union official expressed regret over the failure so far of efforts to forge a cease-fire in the Middle East, saying that fighting between Israel and the Hezbollah has made it more difficult to work for wide-ranging reforms in Lebanon and create conditions to draw international financial aid in.
EU Commissioner for Crisis Management Janez Lenarčič told The Associated Press in an interview late Tuesday in Manila that stalled reforms in Lebanon include the election of a new president, the establishment of a working government and the signing of a deal with the International Monetary Fund.
“It’s difficult to see that happening in these circumstances when Lebanon is under such a strain,” said Lenarčič, who flew to Manila to attend an Asia Pacific conference on disaster mitigation.
“That’s one of the reasons why we’re calling for a cease-fire, so as to allow Lebanon to organize itself so that it can benefit from all the funding which is out there,” he said. “I regret that we have not been heard.”
The EU was also extremely concerned over the killings of civilians in the fighting between Israel and the Hezbollah militant group. “This collateral damage is simply unacceptable,” Lenarčič said.
Zavik Zoigi checks the Sukkah, a temporary hut built for the Jewish holiday of Sukkot, placed in front of his residence ahead the weeklong holiday celebrations in Kiryat Shmona, a town located neart to the border with Lebanon, in northern Israel, Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)
Lebanese Red Cross volunteers remove the remains of killed people from the rubble of a destroyed building at the site of Monday's Israeli airstrike in Aito village, north Lebanon, Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
People attend the funeral ceremony of the late Iranian Revolutionary Guard Gen. Abbas Nilforushan, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut in late September, in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Lebanese army soldiers stand on the rubble of a destroyed building at the site of Monday's Israeli airstrike in the village of Aito, north Lebanon, Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
Palestinian activist Khairi Hanoun holds up a poster of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah who was killed by an Israeli strike in September, while mourning Rayan al-Sayed, a Palestinian killed in an Israeli raid Monday in the West Bank city of Jenin, during Al-Sayed's funeral, Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Majdi Mohammed)
Smoke rise from Israeli airstrikes on Dahiyeh, Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanon, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
Smoke rise from Israeli airstrikes on Dahiyeh, Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanon, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
Smoke rise from Israeli airstrikes on Dahiyeh, Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanon, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
