What's next for Hamas after its leader Yahya Sinwar's death?

BEIRUT (AP) — The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar by Israeli forces in Gaza this week leaves the Palestinian militant group considering new leadership for the second time in less than three months.

Will Hamas now turn away from its hard-line wing or will it double down, and what will it mean for the group’s future and for the revival of cease-fire and hostage exchange negotiations between Hamas and Israel?

Sinwar replaced Hamas' previous leader, Ismail Haniyeh, after Haniyeh was killed in July in a blast in Iran that was widely blamed on Israel.

As an architect of the Oct. 7, 2023, attack in southern Israel that sparked the war in Gaza, Sinwar was a defiant choice at a time when some expected the militant group to take a more conciliatory approach and seek to end the conflict.

Sinwar’s killing appeared to be a chance front-line encounter with Israeli troops on Wednesday.

Killing Sinwar marked a major symbolic victory for Israel in its yearlong war against Hamas in Gaza. But it has also allowed Hamas to claim him as a hero who was killed in the battlefield, not hiding in a tunnel.

While the group is on the defensive and has been largely forced underground in Gaza, it continues to fight Israeli forces in the enclave and to exert political influence.

Bassem Naim, a Qatar-based member of the group's political bureau, said in a statement that Israel had killed other Hamas leaders, including its founding leader, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, and his successor, Abdel Aziz Rantisi, who were killed by airstrikes in 2004.

“Hamas each time became stronger and more popular, and these leaders became an icon for future generations,” he said.

The impact of Sinwar's death on military operations in Gaza remains to be seen. But Sadeq Abu Amer, head of the Turkey-based think tank Palestinian Dialogue Group, said that “there will be no significant impact on the political structure of Hamas."

When Sinwar was appointed, “the situation was basically arranged so that Hamas could manage its political affairs and manage the organization independently of Sinwar” because of the difficulties of communication between Sinwar and Hamas' political leaders outside of Gaza, he said.

Most matters were managed by “collective leadership” between the head of the group’s Shura Council and officials in charge of the West Bank, Gaza and regions abroad, he said. The notable exception: Sinwar controlled all matters related to Israeli hostages in Gaza.

Sinwar’s term was a temporary one and would have expired in the second half of 2025.

“Hamas will not move urgently at the present time to choose a head of the political bureau,” Thabet al-Amour, a political analyst in Gaza, said. He noted that Khalil al-Hayya, Sinwar’s deputy based in Qatar, was already managing executive affairs and can continue to do so.

Abu Amer agreed that Hamas might opt to keep running with the current “formula of collective leadership.” Another possibility, he said would be the election of one of the three regional leaders: al-Hayya, who is in charge of Gaza; Zaher Jibril, in charge of the West Bank; or Khaled Mashaal, in charge of areas outside of the Palestinian territories.

The group also might select a leader without publicly announcing the name “for security reasons,” he said.

If Hamas names a replacement for Sinwar, Khaled Mashaal and Khalil al-Hayya, both members of Hamas' political leadership based in Qatar, are widely considered the most likely contenders.

Al-Hayya had served as Sinwar’s deputy and as the head of the group’s delegation in cease-fire negotiations, both in the current war and during a previous conflict in 2014. He is a longtime official with the group and survived an Israeli airstrike that hit his home in Gaza in 2007, killing several of his family members.

Al-Hayya is seen as close to Iran, but as less of a hard-liner than Sinwar. He was close to Haniyeh.

In an interview with The Associated Press in April, al-Hayya said Hamas was willing to agree to truce of at least five years with Israel and that if an independent Palestinian state were created along 1967 borders, the group would dissolve its military wing and become a purely political party.

Mashaal, who served as the group's political leader from 1996 to 2017, is seen as a relatively moderate figure. He has good relations with Turkey and Qatar, although his relations with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah have been troubled due to his support for the Syrian opposition in the country's 2011 civil war.

Moussa Abu Marzouk, a founding member of Hamas and the first head of its political bureau, is another potential candidate who is seen as a moderate.

Some have suggested that Sinwar’s brother, Mohammed, a key military figure in Gaza, could replace him — if he is still alive. Al-Amour downplayed that possibility.

“Mohammed Sinwar is the head of the field battle, but he will not be Sinwar’s heir as head of the political bureau,” he said. Rather, al-Amour said the death of Sinwar, “one of the most prominent hawks within the movement,” is likely to lead to “the advancement of a trend or direction that can be described as doves” via the group’s leadership abroad.

In the first public statement by a Hamas official after Sinwar's death, al-Hayya appeared to take a hard line on negotiations for a cease-fire deal that would see the release of some 100 Israeli hostages captured in the Oct. 7 attack that sparked the war and who are believed to be held in Gaza.

There will be no hostage release without "the end of the aggression on Gaza and the withdrawal (of Israeli forces) from Gaza,” al-Hayya said.

But some believe that the group may now moderate its stance.

In particular, Mashaal “shows more flexibility when it comes to collaborating with the Qataris and Egyptians to reach cease-fire in Gaza, which would also have a positive impact on the situation in Lebanon,” Saad Abdullah Al-Hamid, a Saudi political analyst, said.

But Sinwar's death could leave some “practical difficulties in completing a prisoner exchange,” Abu Amer said.

The Gaza-based leader was “the only one in the Hamas leadership who held the secrets of this file,” he said, including the location of all the hostages.

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Associated Press staff writer Fatma Khaled in Cairo contributed to this report.

FILE - Khalil al-Hayya, a high-ranking Hamas official who has represented the Palestinian militant group in negotiations for a cease-fire and hostage exchange deal, speaks during an interview with The Associated Press in Istanbul, Turkey, April 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)

FILE - Ismail Haniyeh, leader of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, speaks to journalists after his meeting with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, in Beirut, Lebanon, June 28, 2021. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar, File)

File - In this Oct. 21, 2011, file photo, Yahya Sinwar, a founder of Hamas' military wing, talks during a rally in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip. (AP Photo/Hatem Moussa, File)

FILE - Khaled Mashaal, at the time, leader of the militant group Hamas that has governed Gaza since a 2007 takeover, speaks during a speech held in Doha, Qatar, on Aug. 28, 2014. (AP Photo/Osama Faisal, File)

FILE - Head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, left, and Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar attend a protest in Gaza City on June 26, 2019. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra, File)

LONDON (AP) — They’ll toil and sweat but hopefully without the blood and tears.

A London game is more than just a typical road trip for NFL teams. It’s a chance to learn about local history, too.

In fact, the New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars — who play Sunday at Wembley Stadium — don’t even need to leave their practice facilities to do so.

The Patriots trained Friday at the exclusive Harrow School, whose most famous alumnus is Winston Churchill. Farther out in the countryside, the Jaguars have been using a practice field that is nearly on top of a maze of World War II air raid shelters.

Harrow consists of 324 acres on a hill overlooking London where Churchill spent his high school years before entering politics and leading Britain through World War II as prime minister.

“If any of the Pats players take a break from practice, they should walk around and see the school grounds because they’re quite grand," said Lee Pollock, a director and senior adviser to the board of the International Churchill Society.

A highlight is the Speech Room, where young Churchill recited 1,200 lines from the poem “Lays of Ancient Rome” from memory and won a prize for the feat.

“At Harrow, he learned what he called the most noble thing in the world: the construction of a sentence in the English language,” Pollock said.

Patriots coach Jerod Mayo noted another big character — a fictional one — from Harrow's more recent history.

“I’m definitely a big history guy and I would also say I just learned that there was a Harry Potter scene shot here as well, which I thought was pretty interesting,” Mayo said.

Deatrich Wise Jr., a defensive end, said he already knew Churchill was an alum because “someone said it on the way in.”

Pockets of American politicians have long admired and quoted the cigar-chomping Churchill, and that's spilled over into sports too. San Diego Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh is a big fan. Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker cited Churchill in a social media post about courage, though he's not the first to misattribute a quote to him.

New York Jets owner Woody Johnson had a large Churchill portrait in his office at the U.S. embassy when he was ambassador to the United Kingdom under then-President Donald Trump. Outside of his wartime leadership, Churchill’s legacy is more complex.

The Jags are close to history, too. To avoid German bombing in WWII, the London, Midland and Scottish Railway bought the Grove estate in Watford and moved its headquarters there. It was called “Project X.”

Air raid shelters were built and are still intact — explorers have posted videos online even though the entrances appear to be at least partially blocked. At one point they were being used as “bat roosts,” according to historical records. The Grove luxury hotel where the Jags now regularly stay opened in 2003.

Several entrances to the shelters are visible in the woods next to the Jags' practice field.

Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, speaking generally about the team's annual London trip, says he's always up for learning more about the region.

“I do enjoy history and learning about things," he said on Wednesday. "I don’t know a ton about the area, to be honest. Usually when we’re here it’s pretty busy and we’re kind of focused on the game and trying to win that, but I am intrigued and I think it’s cool just everything here at the Grove but also just in London — it’s so much older than in America.

“The history behind it,” Lawrence continued, "you pick up bits as you go ... it is interesting hearing different things about it.”

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New England Patriots players warm up during NFL football practice, Friday, Oct. 18, 2024, in Harrow, England. (AP Photo/Steve Luciano)

New England Patriots players huddle up during NFL football practice, Friday, Oct. 18, 2024, in Harrow, England. (AP Photo/Steve Luciano)

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) works out during NFL football practice, Friday, Oct. 18, 2024, in Harrow, England. (AP Photo/Steve Luciano)

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye passes the ball during the second half of an NFL football game against the Houston Texans, Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

Patriots to practice on Winston Churchill's old stomping grounds in London

Patriots to practice on Winston Churchill's old stomping grounds in London