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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in California on Election Day

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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in California on Election Day
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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in California on Election Day

2024-10-22 19:00 Last Updated At:19:11

WASHINGTON (AP) — While California may be solidly Democratic in presidential contests, a handful of competitive races in the state could determine whether Republicans keep control of the U.S. House. Voters also will cast ballots in a U.S. Senate contest and 10 statewide propositions, in addition to the presidency and the state Legislature.

At the top of the ticket, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris — herself a Californian — will compete against Republican former President Donald Trump and look to win the state’s 54 electoral votes. A Republican presidential candidate has not won the state since 1988.

While the state’s congressional delegation is heavily Democratic, it has about half a dozen competitive House races, and in 2022 a victory in one gave the GOP the House majority. This year’s notable races include two Republican incumbents in the agricultural Central Valley, three other Republicans in Southern California and a Democratic open seat. One of the clearest paths for Democrats to reclaim the House is to pick up several GOP seats in friendly states auch as California and New York.

It will likely take days and possibly weeks to know who won in some districts, due to how slowly California counts votes. The extended process begins with a large, initial reporting of votes, which reflects ballots that were cast in advance of Election Day.

The candidates to fill the Senate seat long held by the late Democrat Dianne Feinstein are Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff and Republican former baseball player Steve Garvey. They are running in two separate elections: one for the full six-year term and the other for the remaining weeks of Feinstein's unexpired term. The Democrat appointed to fill Feinstein's vacancy, Laphonza Butler, did not seek to replace her.

Voters also will decide a series of propositions, including one that would toughen punishments for repeated drug and theft charges.

In the state Legislature, half of California’s 40 state Senate seats and all 80 state Assembly seats are up for election. Democrats have lopsided supermajorities in both chambers.

Residents of Oakland will decide whether to recall Mayor Sheng Thao.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it has determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Here’s a look at what to expect in the 2024 election in California:

Nov. 5.

11 p.m. ET.

54 awarded to statewide winner.

President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (American Independent) vs. Jill Stein (Green) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Claudia De la Cruz (Peace and Freedom).

U.S. Senate: Schiff (D) vs. Garvey (R).

13th Congressional District: Rep. John Duarte (R) vs. Adam Gray (D).

22nd Congressional District: Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. Rudy Salas (D).

27th Congressional District: Rep. Mike Garcia (R) vs. George Whitesides (D).

45th Congressional District: Rep. Michelle Steel (R) vs. Derek Tran (D).

U.S. House, state Senate, state House, Los Angeles District Attorney, San Francisco Mayor, Oakland Mayor Recall.

2020: Biden (D) 63%, Trump (R) 34%, AP race call: Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, 11 p.m. ET

Registered voters: 22,310,352 (as of Sept. 6, 2024). About 46% Democrats, about 25% Republicans, about 22% no party preference.

Voter turnout in Nov. 2020: 78% of registered voters.

Votes cast before Election Day 2020: about 87% of the total vote.

Votes cast before Election Day 2022: about 88% of the total vote.

Votes cast before Election Day 2024: See AP Advance Vote tracker.

First votes reported, Nov. 2020: 11:04 p.m. ET.

By midnight ET: about 54% of total votes cast were reported.

AP writers Hannah Fingerhut and Maya Sweedler contributed to this report.

Read more about how U.S. elections work at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Republican Steve Garvey, a candidate for the U.S. Senate, talks to the media after participating in a U.S. Senate debate with U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., on Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in Glendale, Calif. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)

Republican Steve Garvey, a candidate for the U.S. Senate, talks to the media after participating in a U.S. Senate debate with U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., on Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in Glendale, Calif. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)

U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., a candidate for the U.S. Senate, talks to the media after participating in a U.S. Senate debate with Republican Steve Garvey on Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in Glendale, Calif. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)

U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., a candidate for the U.S. Senate, talks to the media after participating in a U.S. Senate debate with Republican Steve Garvey on Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in Glendale, Calif. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)

U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., left, and Republican Steve Garvey, right, pose with moderator KABC news anchor Marc Brown, as both candidates for the U.S. Senate, participate in a debate, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in Glendale, Calif. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)

U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., left, and Republican Steve Garvey, right, pose with moderator KABC news anchor Marc Brown, as both candidates for the U.S. Senate, participate in a debate, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in Glendale, Calif. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)

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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Florida on Election Day

2024-10-22 19:00 Last Updated At:19:10

WASHINGTON (AP) — Once considered a pivotal swing state in presidential elections, Florida has proved reliably Republican in recent years. A Democrat hasn’t won the state’s Electoral College votes since 2012, when former President Barack Obama succeeded with a margin of less than one percentage point.

Republican former President Donald Trump has won Florida in both of his campaigns and the state's 30 electoral votes are a cornerstone of his path to top Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and return to the White House.

Trump won the state by a single point in 2016 and by three points in 2020. Republicans appeared to further tighten their grip on the state in 2022, when Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio comfortably won reelection.

Florida voters will also choose on Election Day whether Republican Rick Scott should have another term in the U.S. Senate. Scott, a former governor of Florida, faces a challenge from Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who represented Florida in the U.S. House but lost her reelection bid in 2020.

Further down the ballot are a handful of proposed amendments to Florida’s constitution. Amendment 4 would enshrine abortion rights in the state, while Amendment 3 would legalize the recreational use of marijuana.

Registered Democrats had outnumbered registered Republicans in Florida for at least 50 years dating back to the early 1970s. Republicans overtook Democrats in registration after the 2020 election, and that advantage grew to a lead of about 1 million voters as of August.

Election analysts will be closely watching turnout in Florida, which was pummeled by hurricanes Helene and Milton in the run-up to Election Day.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it has determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Here’s a look at what to expect in the 2024 election in Florida:

Nov. 5.

7 p.m. and 8 p.m. ET. Florida covers two time zones, so most of the state will start reporting results while some voters in the panhandle are casting ballots until 8 p.m. ET.

30 awarded to statewide winner.

President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Claudia De la Cruz ( Socialism and Liberation) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Peter Sonski (American Solidarity) vs. Jill Stein (Green) vs. Randall Terry (Constitution).

U.S. Senate: Scott (R) vs. Mucarsel-Powell (D) and three others.

Ballot measures: Amendment 3 (legalize marijuana) and Amendment 4 (right to abortion).

U.S. House, state Senate, state House, state attorney, public defender, sheriff and other ballot measures.

2020: Trump (R) 51%, Biden (D) 48%, AP race call: Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2020, 12:35 a.m. ET.

Registered voters: 13,845,913 (as of Sept. 30, 2024). About 32% Democrats, 39% Republicans and 26% unaffiliated.

Voter turnout in Nov. 2020: 77% of registered voters.

Votes cast before Election Day 2020: about 83% of the total vote.

Votes cast before Election Day 2022: about 65% of the total vote.

Votes cast before Election Day 2024: See AP Advance Vote tracker.

First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 7:04 p.m. ET.

By midnight ET: about 99% of total votes cast were reported.

Associated Press writers Rebecca Reynolds and Maya Sweedler contributed to this report.

Read more about how U.S. elections work at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Lenny Carrillo from the Orange County Supervisor of Elections Office sets up voting booths at the Meadow Woods Community Center in Orlando, Fla., Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024. Early voting begins in Orange County on Monday and runs through November 3. There will be 22 locations across the county for early voting, open from 8am to 8pm daily. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel via AP)

Lenny Carrillo from the Orange County Supervisor of Elections Office sets up voting booths at the Meadow Woods Community Center in Orlando, Fla., Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024. Early voting begins in Orange County on Monday and runs through November 3. There will be 22 locations across the county for early voting, open from 8am to 8pm daily. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel via AP)

Employees from the Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections collect mail-in ballots, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024, in Doral, Fla. (AP Photo/Marta Lavandier)

Employees from the Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections collect mail-in ballots, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024, in Doral, Fla. (AP Photo/Marta Lavandier)

A couple drops their mail-in ballots into a collection box held by Sumter County Supervisor of Elections Bill Keen, during a golf cart parade to deliver mail-in votes organized by the Villages Democratic Club, in The Villages, Fla., Monday, Oct. 14, 2024. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

A couple drops their mail-in ballots into a collection box held by Sumter County Supervisor of Elections Bill Keen, during a golf cart parade to deliver mail-in votes organized by the Villages Democratic Club, in The Villages, Fla., Monday, Oct. 14, 2024. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

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