WASHINGTON (AP) — The global war against inflation has largely been won — and at surprisingly little cost to economic growth, the International Monetary Fund declared Tuesday.
In its latest assessment of the global economy, the IMF predicted that worldwide inflation will cool from 6.7% last year to 5.8% this year and to 4.3% in 2025. It estimates that inflation will fall even faster in the world’s wealthy countries, from 4.6% last year to 2.6% this year and 2% — the target range for most major central banks — in 2025.
The slowdown in inflation, after years of crushing price increases in the aftermath of the pandemic, led the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to cut interest rates this year after they had aggressively raised them to try to tame inflation.
“The battle against inflation is almost won,″ Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF's chief economist, told reporters Tuesday. ”In most countries, inflation is hovering close to central bank targets.″
Inflation had accelerated when the world economy recovered with unexpected speed from the COVID-19 recession, leaving factories, freight yards, ports and businesses overwhelmed with customer orders and creating shortages, delays and higher prices. The high borrowing rates engineered by major central banks, along with the end of supply chain logjams, brought inflation dramatically down from the four-decade highs it hit in mid-2022.
And to the surprise of forecasters, the economy — especially the largest, in the United States — continued to grow and employers kept hiring despite higher borrowing costs.
"The decline in inflation without a global recession is a major achievement,'' Gourinchas wrote in a blog post that accompanied the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook.
The IMF, a 190-nation lending organization, works to promote economic growth and financial stability and reduce global poverty. On Tuesday, besides sketching a milder inflation outlook, it upgraded its economic expectations for the United States this year, while lowering its estimates for growth in Europe and China. The IMF left its forecast for global growth unchanged at a relatively lackluster 3.2% for 2024.
The IMF expects the U.S. economy to expand 2.8% this year, down slightly from 2.9% in 2023 but an improvement on the 2.6% it had forecast for 2024 back in July. Growth in the United States has been led by strong consumer spending, fueled by healthy gains in inflation-adjusted wages.
Next year, though, the IMF expects the U.S. economy to decelerate to 2.2% growth. With a new presidential administration and Congress in place, the IMF envisions the nation's job market losing some momentum in 2025 as the government begins seeking to curb huge budget deficits by slowing spending, raising taxes or some combination of both.
The IMF expects China's economic growth to slow from 5.2% last year to 4.8% this year and 4.5% in 2025. The world’s No. 2 economy has been hobbled by a collapse in its housing market and by weak consumer confidence — problems only partly offset by strong exports.
The 20 European countries that share the euro currency are collectively expected to eke out 0.8% growth this year, twice the 2023 expansion of 0.4% but a slight downgrade from the 0.9% the IMF had forecast three months ago for 2024. The German economy, hurt by a slump in manufacturing and real estate, isn’t expected to grow at all this year.
Now that interest rates are coming down and likely to aid the world’s economies, the IMF warned, the need to contain enormous government deficits will likely put a brake on growth. The overall world economy is expected to grow 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025, down a tick from 3.3% last year. That’s an unimpressive standard: From 2000 through 2019, before the pandemic upended economic activity, global growth had averaged 3.8% a year.
The IMF also continues to express concern that geopolitical tension, including antagonism between the United States and China, could make world trade less efficient. The concern is that more countries would increasingly do business with their allies instead of seeking the lowest-priced or best-made foreign goods. Still, global trade, measured by volume, is expected to grow 3.1% this year and 3.4% in 2025, improving on 2023’s anemic 0.8% increase.
Gourinchas also suggested that economic growth could end up being weaker than expected if countries take steps to reduce immigration, which has helped ease labor shortages in the United States and other advanced economies. And he said armed conflicts, like those in Ukraine and the Middle East, could also threaten the economic outlook.
India’s economy is expected to 7% this year and 6.5% in 2025. While still strong, that pace would be down from 8.2% growth last year, a result of consumers slowing their spending after a post-pandemic boom.
The IMF predicts that Japan’s economy, hurt by production problems in the auto industry and a slowdown in tourism, will expand by a meager 0.3% this year before accelerating to 1.1% growth in 2025.
The United Kingdom is projected to register 1.1% growth this year, up from a dismal 0.3% in 2023, with falling interest rates helping spur stronger consumer spending.
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LOS ANGELES (AP) — Fernando Valenzuela, the Mexican-born phenom for the Los Angeles Dodgers who inspired “Fernandomania” while winning the NL Cy Young Award and Rookie of the Year in 1981, has died. He was 63.
The team said he died Tuesday night at a Los Angeles hospital, but did not provide the cause or other details.
His death comes as the Dodgers prepare to open the World Series on Friday night at home against the New York Yankees. Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred said Valenzuela would be honored during the series at Dodger Stadium.
Valenzuela had left his color commentator job on the Dodgers’ Spanish-language television broadcast in September without explanation. He was reported to have been hospitalized earlier this month. His job kept him as a regular at Dodger Stadium, where he held court in the press box dining room before games and remained popular with fans who sought him out for photos and autographs.
“God bless Fernando Valenzuela!” actor and Dodgers fan Danny Trejo posted on X.
Valenzuela was one of the most dominant players of his era and a wildly popular figure in the 1980s, although he was never elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. However, he is part of Cooperstown, which features several artifacts including a signed ball from his no-hitter in 1990.
“He is one of the most influential Dodgers ever and belongs on the Mount Rushmore of franchise heroes," Stan Kasten, team president and CEO, said in a statement. “He galvanized the fan base with the Fernandomania season of 1981 and has remained close to our hearts ever since, not only as a player but also as a broadcaster. He has left us all too soon.”
Valenzuela's rise from humble beginnings as the youngest of 12 children in Mexico and his feats on the mound made him hugely popular and influential in Los Angeles’ Latino community while helping attract new fans to Major League Baseball. Their fondness for him continued for years after his retirement.
“63 is way too young.... A piece of my childhood is gone,” actor and “Access Hollywood” co-host Mario Lopez posted on X. “Growing up as a Mexican kid one of the main reasons I'm a Dodgers fan is because of Fernando. ... Not only a great player, but a great man to the community. What a legend.”
In 1981, Valenzuela became the Dodgers’ opening day starter as a rookie after Jerry Reuss was injured 24 hours before his scheduled start. He shut out the Houston Astros 2-0 and began the season 8-0 with five shutouts and an ERA of 0.50. He became the first player to win a Cy Young and Rookie of the Year in the same season.
His performances created the delirium known as “Fernandomania” among Dodgers fans. The ABBA hit “Fernando” would play as he warmed up on the mound.
He was 13-7 and had a 2.48 ERA in his first season, which was shortened by a players’ strike.
Valenzuela was an All-Star selection every year from 1981-86, when he recorded 97 victories, 84 complete games, 1,258 strikeouts and a 2.97 ERA. He was 5-1 with a 2.00 ERA in eight postseason starts. He earned two Silver Slugger Awards and a Gold Glove.
Valenzuela’s no-hitter on June 29, 1990, a 6-0 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals at Dodger Stadium, was an emotional career highlight. He struck out seven and walked three.
“If you have a sombrero, throw it to the sky!” Hall of Fame broadcaster Vin Scully exclaimed in his game call.
Nicknamed “El Toro” by the fans, Valenzuela had an unorthodox and memorable pitching motion that included looking skyward at the apex of each windup. His repertoire included a screwball -- making him one of the few pitchers of his era who threw that pitch regularly. It was taught to him by teammate Bobby Castillo after the Dodgers felt Valenzuela, who wasn’t known as a hard thrower, needed another pitch.
Early in his Dodgers career, Valenzuela spoke little English and had trouble communicating with his catchers. Rookie Mike Scioscia learned Spanish and became Valenzuela’s personal catcher before becoming the team’s full-time catcher.
Valenzuela was a better-than-average hitter, with 10 career home runs.
Eventually, his pitching was compromised by nagging shoulder problems that kept him out of the 1988 postseason, when the Dodgers won the World Series.
The team released Valenzuela just before the 1991 season. He also pitched for the former California Angels, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals.
He retired in 1997, going 141-116 with a 3.31 ERA in 11 seasons with the Dodgers. Overall, he was 173-153 with a 3.54 ERA in 17 seasons.
Valenzuela’s rise from his tiny hometown of Etchohuaquila in the Mexican state of Sonora to stardom in the U.S. was improbable. He was the youngest child in a large family who tagged along when his older brothers played baseball.
He signed his first pro contract at age 16, and soon began overpowering older players in the Mexican Central League.
In 1978, legendary Dodgers scout Mike Brito was in Mexico to watch a shortstop when Valenzuela entered the game as a reliever. He immediately commanded Brito’s attention and at age 18, Valenzuela signed with the Dodgers in 1979. He was sent to the California League that same year.
In 1980, Valenzuela was called up to the Dodgers in September and soon made his big league debut as a reliever.
He remains the only pitcher in MLB history to win the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards in the same season. The left-hander was the National League’s starting pitcher in the All-Star Game in 1981, the same year the Dodgers won the World Series.
He is the all-time major league leader in wins (173) and strikeouts (2,074) by a Mexican-born player.
During his career, he made the cover of Sports Illustrated and visited the White House.
In 2003, Valenzuela returned to the Dodgers as the Spanish-language radio color commentator for NL games. Twelve years later, he switched to the color commentator job on the team’s Spanish-language TV feed.
“He consistently supported the growth of the game through the World Baseball Classic and at MLB events across his home country,” Manfred said in a statement. “As a member of the Dodger broadcasting team for more than 20 years, Fernando helped to reach a new generation of fans and cultivate their love of the game. Fernando will always remain a beloved figure in Dodger history and a special source of pride for the millions of Latino fans he inspired.”
He was inducted into the Mexican Professional Baseball Hall of Fame in 2014. Five years later, the Mexican League retired Valenzuela’s No. 34 jersey. The Dodgers followed in 2023 after keeping his number out of circulation since he last pitched for the team in 1991. The team has a rule that requires a player to be in the Baseball Hall of Fame before having the Dodgers retire his number, but they made an exception for Valenzuela.
The Dodgers named Valenzuela as part of the “Legends of Dodger Baseball” in 2019 and inducted him into the team’s Ring of Honor in 2023.
He became a U.S. citizen in 2015.
Valenzuela served on the coaching staff for Mexico during the World Baseball Classic in 2006, 2009, 2013 and 2017. He was a part-owner of the Mexican League team Tigres de Quintana Roo, with son Fernando Jr. serving as team president and son Ricky serving as general manager. Fernando Jr. played in the San Diego Padres and Chicago White Sox organizations as a first baseman.
In addition to his sons, he is survived by his wife, Linda, who was a schoolteacher from Mexico whom he married in 1981, and daughters Linda and Maria as well as seven grandchildren.
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FILE - Los Angeles Dodger pitching sensation Fernando Valenzuela tips his hat to the crowd celebrating his equaling the major league record of eight shutouts by a rookie during a baseball game against the Atlanta Braves, Sept. 18, 1981, in Los Angeles. Fernando Valenzuela, the Mexican-born phenom for the Los Angeles Dodgers who inspired “Fernandomania” while winning the NL Cy Young Award and Rookie of the Year in 1981, has died Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024.(AP Photo/Molenhouse, File)
FILE - Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Fernando Valenzuela blows bubbles as he passes the time in the dugout during the rain delay before Game 3 of the National League playoffs with the Expos at Montreal, Oct. 18, 1981. Fernando Valenzuela, the Mexican-born phenom for the Los Angeles Dodgers who inspired “Fernandomania” while winning the NL Cy Young Award and Rookie of the Year in 1981, has died Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024.(AP Photo/Rusty Kennedy, File)
FILE - Former Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Fernando Valenzuela throws the ceremonial first pitch during the MLB All-Star baseball game, July 19, 2022, in Los Angeles. Fernando Valenzuela, the Mexican-born phenom for the Los Angeles Dodgers who inspired “Fernandomania” while winning the NL Cy Young Award and Rookie of the Year in 1981, has died Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024.(AP Photo/Abbie Parr, File)
FILE - Los Angeles Dodger pitcher Fernando Valenzuela tips his sombrero at a news conference after he was named National League Rookie of the Year, Dec. 2, 1981, in Los Angeles. Fernando Valenzuela, the Mexican-born phenom for the Los Angeles Dodgers who inspired “Fernandomania” while winning the NL Cy Young Award and Rookie of the Year in 1981, has died Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024.(AP Photo/Wally Fong, File)
FILE - Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Fernando Valenzuela pitches against a San Francisco Giants batter during the first inning at Candlestick Park, Oct. 3, 1982, in San Francisco. Fernando Valenzuela, the Mexican-born phenom for the Los Angeles Dodgers who inspired “Fernandomania” while winning the NL Cy Young Award and Rookie of the Year in 1981, has died Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024. (AP Photo, File)
FILE - Former Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Fernando Valenzuela speaks during a news conference ahead of his jersey retirement ceremony at a baseball game between the Dodgers and the Colorado Rockies, Aug. 11, 2023, in Los Angeles. Fernando Valenzuela, the Mexican-born phenom for the Los Angeles Dodgers who inspired “Fernandomania” while winning the NL Cy Young Award and Rookie of the Year in 1981, has died Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Ryan Sun, File)
FILE - Fernando Valenzuela throws to the plate during the Old-Timers baseball game, June 8, 2013, in Los Angeles. Fernando Valenzuela, the Mexican-born phenom for the Los Angeles Dodgers who inspired “Fernandomania” while winning the NL Cy Young Award and Rookie of the Year in 1981, has died Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill, File)
