More Republicans are voting early, helping break records. Nearly 19 million ballots cast so far

With former President Donald Trump’s encouragement, Republicans are voting early again, flocking to the polls for in-person voting ahead of Election Day and helping push the national number to nearly 19 million.

The early turnout is breaking records in swing states such as Georgia and North Carolina.

The GOP hopes this surge of early votes will fix a mechanical problem that some in the party blame for costing it the 2020 presidential election and key races in 2022. Campaigns usually want their voters to cast ballots ahead of Election Day so they can focus their resources on getting more marginal supporters to the polls at the last minute.

Republicans excelled at that before Trump turned against early in-person and mail voting in 2020, as he spun wild conspiracies about the process and convinced his supporters to wait until Election Day to cast their ballots. But the party is again pushing its voters to cast their ballots early, and the former president is largely encouraging the change.

“I am telling everyone to vote early,” Trump said on a podcast last week hosted by conservative Dan Bongino, who has widely spread false information about early voting and the 2020 election.

Republicans seem to be responding. In Nevada, where Democrats for decades relied on a robust early vote to counter the GOP on Election Day, about 6,000 more Republicans than Democrats had actually cast early ballots this year as of Tuesday, according to Associated Press research.

It's unclear what this means for the election, however. The early vote data only reveals whether voters are registered with a party, not who they are voting for, and the early electorate can change from day to day as more people vote early.

The surge in 2020 Democratic early voting was largely a reaction to a pandemic that no longer exists, skewing historic comparisons. And what might seem like demographic trends in the early vote can suddenly disappear once Election Day votes are factored in.

It also is still very early in the voting process. The last of the seven swing states, Wisconsin, kicked off its early voting Tuesday morning, and the 17.4 million voters who already have cast ballots this year represent only about 11% of the number of total ballots in the 2020 presidential election. Parties can run up leads in the early vote and then see them vanish on Election Day because all their supporters have already cast ballots and the other side has not.

“The Democrats are still, as far as I can tell, banking more early votes. It's just less of a disadvantage for Republicans,” said Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida who carefully tracks the early vote. But, McDonald cautioned, “we don't know if this is a shifting of furniture yet or an added strength for Republicans.”

One thing is clear — the return to bipartisan early voting has helped bust records. North Carolina and Georgia both reported record turnout on their first day of in-person early voting, despite the destruction caused by Hurricane Helene, and it has spilled over into states that aren't competitive at the presidential level, such as South Carolina, which reported its own record when it opened early voting Monday.

James Blair, the political director for Trump's campaign, said its data shows that more of its low-propensity voters are casting ballots early than those who might be expected to support Vice President Kamala Harris.

“The starting point is, we’re in a strong spot,” Blair said.

The Harris campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Republicans still seem to have an aversion to mail balloting. They've improved their share of the mail vote in several states but still lag Democrats. That's particularly true in Pennsylvania, the biggest electoral prize among the seven swing states and one that does not have a traditional early in-person voting option.

Democrats there have sent in about 350,000 more mail ballots than Republicans as of Tuesday. But the GOP is making up ground by voting early in-person in most competitive states.

Nonetheless, years of sowing conspiracy theories about early and mail voting have taken a toll on the conservative electorate. At Elon Musk's first solo event in support of Trump last week, he encouraged the crowd to vote early, an entreaty that some in the audience responded to by shouting back, “Why?”

Even with those reservations, some analysts said Republicans would rather have an early vote parity than not.

John Couvillon, a Louisiana pollster who usually works for the GOP and carefully tracks the early vote, noted that Democrats have dominated the early vote during recent election cycles. Their current position, Couvillon said, “is the equivalent of being down three touchdowns at halftime and thinking you can score four touchdowns in the second half.”

Tom Bonier, a Democratic data analyst, contended that everyone expected Republicans to return to early voting and the pandemic-inspired gaps to close. He said he's not concerned.

“I'm impressed the Democratic numbers are as strong as they are,” he said.

The main takeaway, Bonier said, is that the high rates of voting show an enthusiastic electorate on both sides.

“If either side thought the other side would stay home this election, that's obviously not the case,” he said.

An earlier version of this story incorrectly attributed to Donald Trump a quote that said, “I need you to vote and I need you to go to the polls before Election Day because they will try on Election Day to keep you home.” The statement was made at a Trump event in North Carolina on Monday by Trump adviser Peter Navarro, not Trump.

A Madison Clerk's Office worker delivers a pair of additional polling booths past people waiting to vote on the first day of Wisconsin's in-person absentee voting at the Madison Public Library in Madison, Wisc., Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/John Hart, Wisconsin State Journal)

People lineup to vote on the first day of Wisconsin's in-person absentee voting at the Madison Public Library in Madison, Wisc., Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/John Hart, Wisconsin State Journal)

Students at The University of Wisconsin-Madison wait in line to cast their ballots in the 2024 election during the first day of Wisconsin's in-person absentee voting on the campus in Madison, Wisc., Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/John Hart, Wisconsin State Journal)

Students at The University of Wisconsin-Madison fill out ballots during the first day of Wisconsin's in-person absentee voting on the campus in Madison, Wisc., Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/John Hart, Wisconsin State Journal)

Rudy Giuliani must turn over sports memorabilia and other prized possessions to two Georgia election workers who won a $148 million defamation judgment against him, including his New York City apartment, more than two dozen luxury watches and a 1980 Mercedes once owned by movie star Lauren Bacall, a judge ruled Tuesday.

But U.S. District Judge Lewis Liman in Manhattan also said Giuliani does not have to give the election workers three New York Yankees World Series rings or his Florida condominium — for now — noting those assets are tied up in other litigation.

The property Giuliani must relinquish is expected to fetch several million dollars for Ruby Freeman and her daughter, Wandrea “Shaye” Moss. They won the $148 million judgment over Giuliani’s false ballot fraud claims against them related to the 2020 presidential election. They said Giuliani pushed Donald Trump’s lies about the election being stolen, which led to death threats that made them fear for their lives.

Under Tuesday's order, Giuliani must turn over within seven days his Manhattan apartment, estimated at more than $5 million, as well his interest in about $2 million that he says Trump's 2020 presidential campaign owes him for his services.

Also on the list of assets that must be given to Freeman and Moss are a 1980 Mercedes-Benz SL 500 previous owned by Bacall, a shirt and picture signed, respectively, by Yankees legends Joe DiMaggio and Reggie Jackson, a signed Yankee Stadium picture, a diamond ring, costume jewelry and 26 watches, including a Rolex, five Shinolas, two Bulovas and a Tiffany & Co.

In court documents filed earlier this year, Giuliani estimated the worth of the Mercedes at about $25,000, and the watches, World Series rings and costume jewelry at about $30,000. He said the value of his sports memorabilia was unknown.

One of those watches was given to Giuliani by his grandfather and he asked that he be allowed to keep it because of its sentimental value. But Liman rejected the request, saying Giuliani could have had it exempted if he proved it was worth less than $1,000 but he did not do so. The judge added, “However painful the circumstances, a party cannot claim that every family heirloom should be exempt.”

Liman wrote that Giuliani's surrendering of the assets to Freeman and Moss would “ensure that the liquidation of the transferred assets is accomplished quickly and consistently by the Plaintiffs’ chosen counsel, maximizing the sale value of the unique and intangible items and therefore increasing the likelihood of satisfaction of the Plaintiffs’ judgment.”

Lawyers for Giuliani did not immediately return email messages on Tuesday.

To date, Giuliani has not paid Freeman and Moss anything.

“We are proud that our clients will finally begin to receive some of the compensation to which they are entitled for Giuliani’s actions,” Aaron Nathan, a lawyer for Freeman and Moss, said in a statement. “This outcome should send a powerful message that there is a price to pay for those who choose to intentionally spread disinformation.”

Giuliani had asked the judge to bar Freeman and Moss from selling any of his assets until after his appeal of the $148 million judgment is completed. Liman also turned down that request, saying Giuliani could have asked the federal court in Washington, D.C., where Freeman and Moss won their defamation case, to stay any asset sales pending his appeal, but did not.

“The Court also does not doubt that certain of the items may have sentimental value to Defendant,” the judge wrote. “But that does not entitle Defendant to continued enjoyment of the assets to the detriment of the Plaintiffs to whom he owes approximately $150 million. It is, after all, the underlying policy of these New York statutes that ‘no man should be permitted to live at the same time in luxury and in debt.’”

As for the World Series rings, Giuliani's son, Andrew, filed court documents earlier this month saying he actually is the rightful owner. He said his father gave him four rings — one for each of the Yankees’ championships in 1996, 1998, 1999 and 2000 — as gifts in 2018. Rudy Giuliani received the rings during his tenure as mayor of New York City. The younger Giuliani's claim is pending in federal court in Manhattan.

Freeman and Moss also asked Liman to order Rudy Giuliani to turn over his condo in Palm Beach, Florida, estimated to be worth more than $3 million. But that property is tied up in other litigation, with Giuliani claiming it should be exempt because it is his primary residence. Freeman and Moss have a lien on the Florida property.

Liman said he would take up the Florida condo at a hearing set for Oct. 28, and he barred Rudy Giuliani from selling the property or taking any action that would diminish its value in the meantime.

After the $148 million verdict, Giuliani filed for bankruptcy, which froze attempts by Freeman and Moss to collect the award. But a judge in July threw out the case citing repeated “uncooperative conduct,” including a failure to comply with court orders and disclose sources of income.

FILE - Wandrea "Shaye" Moss, a former Georgia election worker, is comforted by her mother, Ruby Freeman, right, as the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol continues to reveal its findings of a year-long investigation, at the Capitol in Washington, June 21, 2022. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)

FILE - Rudy Giuliani speaks during a news conference outside federal court in Washington, Dec. 15, 2023. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana, File)