Global leaders congratulate Trump but his victory looks set to roil the world -- again

LONDON (AP) — The verdict of U.S. voters was more decisive than most pollsters and pundits had predicted. Now the world waits to see whether the election of Donald Trump as president for a second time will prove as destabilizing as many American allies fear.

Trump secured victory Wednesday when he surpassed the 270 electoral college votes needed to win. In a victory speech before the official declaration, he vowed to “put our country first” and bring about a “golden age” for America.

Trump’s first term saw him insult and alienate many of the United States’ longstanding allies. His return to the White House, four years after losing office to President Joe Biden, has huge consequences for everything from global trade to climate change to multiple crises and conflicts around the world.

Trump has pledged to ramp up a tariff feud with China, the United States’ growing economic and strategic rival. In the Middle East, Trump has pledged, without saying how, to end the conflicts between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah. He has also vowed to end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office – something Ukraine and its supporters fear would be on terms favorable to Moscow.

Here’s how leaders and others around the world are reacting:

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte congratulated Trump, saying, “I look forward to working with him again to advance peace through strength through NATO” in the face of “a growing number of challenges globally,” including “the increasing alignment of China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.”

Trump was a strong critic of the North Atlantic military alliance during his first term, accusing its other members of failing to pull their weight. Earlier this year he said the United States would not defend NATO members that don’t meet defense spending targets. Trump wants European allies to boost their own military spending to rely less on U.S. deterrence, but some European leaders and diplomats have expressed fears that he fundamentally lacks commitment to NATO.

Rutte emphasized the positive, praising Trump for his work persuading member states to ramp up defense spending and saying NATO was now “stronger, larger, and more united.”

America’s allies are — belatedly, some say — grappling with what to do if they cannot depend on the U.S. for their defense.

“The existential concern for Europeans has been what happens to Ukraine, what happens to Europe’s security, what happens to America’s commitment to NATO?” said Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the U.S. and Americas program at the think tank Chatham House. “Will America be there for Europe?”

The U.S. is by far Kyiv’s biggest military backer as it battles Russian invasion, though the Biden administration resisted pressure from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to do even more. Zelenskyy, like Rutte, said he welcomed Trump’s “peace through strength” approach.

“This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer,” Zelenskyy wrote on social media. “I am hopeful that we will put it into action together. We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership.”

Zelenskyy later wrote that he had spoken to Trump and congratulated him on “his historic landslide victory—his tremendous campaign made this result possible. I praised his family and team for their great work. We agreed to maintain close dialogue and advance our cooperation.”

No congratulations were forthcoming from Moscow, where President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, declared that Russia-U.S. relations were at the “lowest point in history.”

European leaders rushed to congratulate Trump even before his victory was officially declared — some more effusively than others.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called it a “historic election victory” and said that “as the closest of allies, the U.K. and U.S. will continue to work together to protect our shared values of freedom and democracy.”

Like governments of U.S. allies around the world, Starmer’s center-left administration has worked hard to forge ties with Trump and his team. Starmer had dinner with Trump at Trump Tower in September.

France’s centrist President Emmanuel Macron offered congratulations, “respect and ambition.” Social Democratic German Chancellor Olaf Scholz congratulated Trump and said he wanted continued close ties, even if “surely many things will be different under a Donald Trump-led administration.”

Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni, whose far right-led government is in some ways close to Trump politically, said Italy and the U.S. had a “strategic bond, which I am sure we will now strengthen even more.”

European leaders are keen to stress that the transatlantic relationship transcends individual politicians, but Trump’s protectionist economic leanings are causing concern. During his last term he slapped tariffs on European steel and aluminum, roiling the bloc’s economy.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stressed that the EU and the U.S. "are bound by a true partnership between our people, uniting 800 million citizens. Let us work together on a transatlantic partnership that continues to deliver for our citizens.”

Europe’s populist politicians, meanwhile, welcomed the victory of a kindred spirit.

“They threatened him with prison, they took his property, they wanted to kill him ... and he still won,” said Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who will hold a summit in Budapest for some 50 European leaders on Thursday.

During his first term, Trump pushed to remake the Middle East by reconciling Israel and Saudi Arabia, and all eyes now are on how he intervenes in the region’s raging conflicts between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon — and the chief backer of the two militant groups, Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Trump’s election win “history’s greatest comeback.”

“Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America. This is a huge victory!” he wrote on social media.

Trump and Netanyahu — a fellow conservative nationalist — had a tight relationship during the former president’s first term, but the ties soured when Netanyahu congratulated President Joe Biden on winning in 2020.

Netanyahu’s inner circle hopes Trump will allow Israel free rein against its enemies, but the president-elect is famously unpredictable, and the Israeli leader faces strong opposition at home. On Tuesday he fired popular Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, a surprise announcement that sparked protests across the country.

Hamas issued a terse statement saying, “Our position on the new U.S. administration depends on its positions and practical behavior towards our Palestinian people, their legitimate rights and their just cause.”

Washington is one of the key mediators of so-far unsuccessful Gaza cease-fire talks. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, another key player in regional peace efforts who had close ties to Trump during his first administration, said Egypt looked forward “to arriving together at achieving peace and preservation of stability in the region.”

Other African leaders, including South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, also sent congratulations.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping called for the U.S. and China to manage their differences and get along in a new era in a congratulatory message to Trump.

He told Trump that history has shown that both sides gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation, according to Chinese state media.

But analysts in China were pessimistic, citing the likelihood of escalating tariffs and an intensifying confrontation over Taiwan.

“It is not all dark, but there are more challenges than opportunities,” said Da Wei, director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “We are clear about the challenges. As for opportunities, we are yet to see them clearly.”

Long-seething territorial disputes in the South China Sea are a fault line in the U.S.-China rivalry in Asia and likely will remain a major foreign policy concern for the next American president.

Asian leaders apprehensive about China’s growing clout and North Korea's nuclear program, clamored for Trump’s attention in congratulatory messages.

“I hope to closely cooperate with President-elect Trump to further elevate Japan-U.S. alliance and relations to even higher levels,” Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said the Korea-U.S. alliance “will shine brighter,” under Trump's ”strong leadership."

But Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews, said Washington’s allies in the Indo-Pacific, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and even Australia, “can no longer look for the U.S.A. to be a reliable partner in defense.”

The United States’ neighbors in the Americas, some of whom bore the impact of Trump's protectionist instincts during his first term, also braced for uncertainty.

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum told Mexicans “there is no reason to worry,” despite Trump’s previous threats to impose trade tariffs on Mexican products unless the country does more to stem the flow of migrants and drugs to the U.S.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — previously derided by Trump as “weak” and “dishonest” — wrote on X: “The friendship between Canada and the U.S. is the envy of the world. I know President Trump and I will work together to create more opportunity, prosperity, and security for both of our nations.”

Brazil’s left-leaning President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva congratulated Trump — despite having endorsed Kamala Harris days ago.

“Democracy is the voice of the people and must always be respected,” Lula said on X.

Associated Press writers around the world contributed to this story.

Pedestrians pass a digital screen showing news headlines about the U.S. election, in Leicester Square, in London, Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)

Republican and Democratic Party pins are displayed at a venue as guests watch a television broadcast of U.S. elections in Hong Kong, Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Chan Long Hei)

A speech by Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump is broadcast live on a monitor in the trading hall of Deutsche Börse in Frankfurt, Germany, Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. (Boris Roessler/dpa via AP)

Pedestrians stand at the crossing in front the Rossiya Segodnya International Media Group building with a running news line about the U.S. elections, top, in Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Pavel Bednyakov)

A man checks his smartphone in a cafe as a television screen shows Donald Trump,Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024 in Paris. (AP Photo/Aurelien Morissard)

Indian people watch results of U.S. elections on a television in Guwahati, India, Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Anupam Nath)

A screen shows live footage of Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speech during a news program in Nairobi, Kenya, Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Brian Inganga)

A MIT Sim company broker watches monitors showing graphics of the stock market, in Milan, Italy, Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)

Pakistanis watch news channels broadcasting results of U.S. presidential elections, at a shop in Karachi, Pakistan, Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Fareed Khan)

Steve Baker, left, Claudine Earley and their dog Louis watch a television broadcast during a U.S. election viewing party at Mean Doses bar in Wellington, New Zealand on Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Charlotte Graham-McLay)

A screens shows live footage of Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speech during a news program in Seoul, South Korea, Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man)

U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns watches with other attendees as voting results are displayed on screen at a reception for the U.S. presidential election held at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

American and Ukrainian flags placed in honour of fallen servicemen flutter in the wind in front of statue in central square, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Alex Babenko)

KAKUMA, Kenya (AP) — Windswept and remote, set in the cattle-rustling lands of Kenya’s northwest, Kakuma was never meant to be permanently settled.

It became one of Africa’s most famous refugee camps by accident as people escaping calamity in countries like South Sudan, Ethiopia and Congo poured in.

More than three decades after its first tents appeared in 1992, Kakuma houses 300,000 refugees. Many rely on aid to survive. Some recently clashed with police over shrinking food rations and support.

Now the Kenyan government and humanitarian agencies have come up with an ambitious plan for Kakuma to evolve into a city.

Although it remains under the United Nations' management, Kakuma has been redesignated a municipality, one that local government officials later will run.

It is part of broader goal in Kenya and elsewhere of incorporating refugees more closely into local populations and shifting from prolonged reliance on aid.

The refugees in Kakuma eventually will have to fend for themselves, living off their incomes rather than aid. The nearest city is eight hours' drive away.

Such self-reliance is not easy. Few refugees can become Kenyan citizens. A 2021 law recognizes their right to work in formal employment, but only a tiny minority are allowed to do so.

Forbidden from keeping livestock because of the arid surroundings and the inability to roam widely, and unable to farm due to the lack of adequate water, many refugees see running a business as their only option.

Startup businesses require capital, and interest rates on loans from banks in Kakuma are typically around 20%. Few refugees have the collateral and documentation needed to take out a loan.

Denying them access to credit is a tremendous waste of human capital, said Julienne Oyler, who runs Inkomoko, a charity providing financial training and low-cost loans to African businesses, primarily in displacement-affected communities.

“We find that refugee business owners actually have the characteristics that make world-class entrepreneurs,” she said.

“They are resilient. They are resourceful. They have access to networks. They have adaptability. In some ways, what refugees unfortunately have had to go through actually makes a really good business owner.”

Other options available include microloans from other aid groups or collective financing by refugee-run groups. However, the sums involved are usually insufficient for all but the smallest startups.

One of Inkomoko’s clients in Kakuma, Adele Mubalama, led seven young children — six of her own and an abandoned 12-year-old she found en route — on a hazardous journey to the camp through four countries after the family was forced to leave Congo in 2018.

At the camp it took six months to find her husband, who had fled two months earlier, and six more to figure out how to make a living.

“It was difficult to know how to survive,” Mubalama said. “We didn’t know how to get jobs and there were no business opportunities.”

After signing up for a tailoring course with a Danish charity, she found herself making fabric masks during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Able to borrow from Inkomoko at half the rate charged by banks, she expanded, taking on 26 employees and buying new sewing machines. Last year she made a profit of $8,300 — a huge amount when many refugees live on allowances or vouchers of about $10 or less a month.

Another beneficiary is Mesfin Getahun, a former soldier who fled Ethiopia for Kakuma in 2001 after helping students who had protested against the government. He has grown his “Jesus is Lord” shops, which sell everything from groceries to motorcycles, into Kakuma’s biggest retail chain. That's thanks in part to $115,000 in loans from Inkomoko.

Trading with other towns is also essential. Inkomoko has linked refugee businesses with suppliers in Eldoret, a city 300 miles (482 kilometers) to the south, to cut out expensive middlemen and help embed Kakuma into Kenya's economy.

Some question the vision of Kakuma becoming a thriving, self-reliant city.

Rahul Oka, an associate research professor with the University of Notre Dame said it lacks the resources — particularly water — and infrastructure to sustain a viable economy that can rely on local production.

“You cannot reconstruct an organic economy by socially engineering one,” said Oka, who has studied economic life at Kakuma for many years.

Two-way trade remains almost nonexistent. Suppliers send food and secondhand clothes to Kakuma, but trucks on the return journey are usually empty.

And the vast majority of refugees lack the freedom to move elsewhere in Kenya, where jobs are easier to find, said Freddie Carver of ODI Global, a London-based think tank.

Unless this is addressed, solutions offering greater opportunities to refugees cannot deliver meaningful transformation for most of them, he said.

“If you go back 20 years, a lot of refugee rights discourse was about legal protections, the right to work, the right to stay in a country permanently,” Carver said. “Now it’s all about livelihoods and self-sufficiency. The emphasis is so much on opportunities that it overshadows the question of rights. There needs to be a greater balance.”

For more on Africa and development: https://apnews.com/hub/africa-pulse

The Associated Press receives financial support for global health and development coverage in Africa from the Gates Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

General view of Kakuma refugee camp in Turkana county, Kenya, Saturday, Feb. 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Jackson Njehia)

Julienne Oyler, who runs Inkomoko, a charity providing financial training, talks during an interview with the Associated Press Kakuma refugee camp in Turkana county, Kenya, Saturday, Feb. 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Jackson Njehia)

Adele Mubalama, holds a cloth at her boutique in Kakuma refugee camp, Turkana County, Kenya, Saturday, Feb. 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Jackson Njehia)

General view part of Kakuma refugee camp in Turkana county, Kenya, Saturday, Feb. 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Jackson Njehia)