Skip to Content Facebook Feature Image

Trump 2.0 will alter global climate fighting efforts. Will others step up?

News

Trump 2.0 will alter global climate fighting efforts. Will others step up?
News

News

Trump 2.0 will alter global climate fighting efforts. Will others step up?

2024-11-08 19:53 Last Updated At:20:10

WASHINGTON (AP) — Global efforts to fight climate change stumbled but survived the last time Donald Trump was elected president and withdrew the United States from an international climate agreement. Other countries, states, cities and businesses picked up some of the slack.

But numerous experts worry that a second Trump term will be more damaging, with the United States withdrawing even further from climate efforts in a way that could cripple future presidents' efforts. With Trump, who has dismissed climate change, in charge of the world's leading economy, those experts fear other countries — especially top polluting nation China — could use it as an excuse to ease off their own efforts to curb carbon emissions.

“There's no hope of reaching a safe climate without substantive action from the United States, from China, from Europe,” said Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson, who chairs the Global Carbon Project, a group of scientists that tracks countries' carbon dioxide emissions, which have been rising globally. He said he's certain the world is shooting past the internationally accepted threshold of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times. That's just a couple tenths of a degree away. Others believe the goal is alive.

Trump's reelection comes as the world is on track to set yet another record hot year, and has been lurching from drought to hurricane to flood to wildfire.

“An emboldened Trump would be terrible,” European Climate Foundation CEO Laurence Tubiana said in August.

On Wednesday, Tubiana, the former French official who helped forge the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement that Trump pulled out of, called the election result a setback for global climate action. But she added: "The Paris Agreement has proven resilient and is stronger than any single country’s policy.”

The United Nations’ annual climate negotiations to follow on the Paris accord start next week in Baku, Azerbaijan. In the months after, all countries including the U.S. must issue national plans showing how they will increase efforts to limit heat-trapping emissions from coal, oil and natural gas.

“Baku will be the earliest test of the resilience of the global climate regime,” said Asia Society Policy Institute Director Li Shuo, who foresees the European Union and China stepping up to fill the U.S. leadership void, especially economically. “It should also unite other countries.”

It sort of did that in 2017, when Trump announced that the U.S. would abandon the Paris climate agreement.

"Not a single country followed the U.S. out the door," said Alden Meyer, a longtime climate negotiations analyst with the European think tank E3G. "We saw the birth and launch of the We Are Still In movement of subnational actors, investors, businesses, governors, mayors and others here in the U.S.”

Meyer and others said a more serious step than withdrawing from Paris is possible. That would be pulling out of an underlying treaty from 1992 that set curbing climate change and saving biodiversity as part of global environmental goals for the 21st century, as well as withdrawing from the United Nations climate change fighting system that fosters negotiations, records emissions and what's being done about them.

Project 2025, a conservative post-election blueprint that the Trump campaign distanced itself from but was written by his allies, called for withdrawing from both that U.N. framework and the Paris Agreement.

In 1992, then-President George H.W. Bush signed the Rio conventions, which set up the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. That eventually led to agreements in Kyoto and Paris. The Rio agreement was unanimously approved by the U.S. Senate, but senators soundly rejected the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and President George W. Bush pulled the U.S. out of it.

When negotiators were crafting the 2015 Paris deal, they made it voluntary and made it part of the Rio treaty so no Senate approval was needed. That allowed President Joe Biden in 2021 to immediately rejoin the Paris Agreement without Senate approval.

It's not straightforward, but an exit from Rio and the UNFCCC could make it nearly impossible for the U.S. to get back into climate negotiations, Meyer said.

David Waskow, international climate director for World Resources Institute, agreed. He said withdrawal from the U.N. agreement “would not only place the U.S. on the sidelines of international climate discussions but would be like ejecting itself from the stadium.”

The Paris agreement calls for nations to submit new and more aggressive plans to reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases every five years. Those are due next February and the Biden administration has promised to submit one before it ends “to show what should be done, what can be done,” Meyer said. But the assumption is that the new Trump administration won't honor it, he said.

Meyer said the United States pulling out of climate agreements in Republican administrations and then trying to lead the world in Democratic ones is like the Peanuts cartoon when Lucy keeps pulling the football away from Charlie Brown.

“The world has gotten tired of this routine,” Meyer said.

Joanna Depledge, a historian of international climate negotiations, said she expected Trump's new term will mean four lost years for U.S. climate action. But she added: “The rest of the world is used to U.S. flip-flopping now and will not be diverted from their own efforts.”

Because of the 2020 pandemic and the timing of deadlines created by the Paris Agreement, the three United Nations climate negotiations that took place during the first Trump administration weren’t as ambitious as they could have been. Now, urgent action is needed at the summit this year and next, Depledge and others said.

U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell said negotiations continue because “the fundamental facts remain unchanged: global heating is already hammering every nation, hitting national and households budgets harder every year.”

The Biden administration will still represent the United States next week, when crucial negotiations will address financial help that poor nations need to cope with and fight climate change. But Harris' loss undercuts negotiations because “everyone there knows" the U.S. is unlikely to follow through on any agreement it signs, Stanford's Jackson said.

One of the dynamics of past negotiations during Democratic regimes was that any U.S.-China deal usually led to a global one. Usually the United States “is able to nudge” a more reluctant China to be more ambitious about fighting climate change, Asia Society's Li Shuo said.

“Beijing will read the air in Washington and their conclusion is climate does not enjoy the same level of momentum it had a couple of years ago,” Li said.

But despite all this, many in the insular world of climate negotiations somehow keep optimistic.

“There is an antidote to doom and despair,” said former U.N. climate chief Christiana Figueres said. “It's action on the ground and it's happening in all corners of the Earth.”

__

Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment

Follow Seth Borenstein on X at @borenbears

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

FILE - Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump arrives at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center, Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

FILE - Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump arrives at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center, Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

A pumpjack operates in the foreground as wind turbines at the Buckeye Wind Energy wind farm rise in the distance, Monday, Sept. 30, 2024, near Hays, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

A pumpjack operates in the foreground as wind turbines at the Buckeye Wind Energy wind farm rise in the distance, Monday, Sept. 30, 2024, near Hays, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

AMSTERDAM (AP) — Israeli fans and protesters clashed overnight after a soccer match in Amsterdam, leaving five people hospitalized and 62 arrested, police said Friday. Dutch authorities said attackers systematically targeted Israeli fans.

It was not clear how the violence began. Dutch and Israeli leaders denounced the violence as antisemitic. Video also showed Israeli fans chanting anti-Arab slogans in the streets at some point.

Amsterdam Mayor Femke Halsema told reporters Friday that the Dutch counterterror watchdog said there was no concrete threat to Israeli soccer fans before the game.

Peter Holla, the city's acting police chief, said at the news conference that the fans were “willfully attacked."

Condemnation of the violence poured in from Jewish groups. Israel's foreign minister left on an urgent diplomatic trip to the Netherlands. Security concerns have shrouded matches with Israeli teams in multiple countries over the past year because of global tensions linked to the wars in the Middle East.

The Amsterdam police said in a post on social media platform X that they have started a major investigation into multiple violent incidents. The post did not provide further details about those injured or detained in Thursday night’s violence following the Europa League match between Ajax and Maccabi Tel Aviv.

Authorities said extra police would patrol Amsterdam in coming days, and security will be beefed up at Jewish institutions in the city that has a large Jewish community and was home to Jewish World War II diarist Anne Frank and her family as they hid from Nazi occupiers.

Earlier, a statement issued by the Dutch capital’s municipality, police and prosecution office said that the night “was very turbulent with several incidents of violence aimed at Maccabi supporters'' after antisemitic rioters “actively sought out Israeli supporters to attack and assault them.''

It was not immediately clear when and where violence erupted after the match.

“In several places in the city, supporters were attacked. The police had to intervene several times, protect Israeli supporters and escort them to hotels. Despite the massive police presence in the city, Israeli supporters have been injured,” the Amsterdam statement said.

“This outburst of violence toward Israeli supporters is unacceptable and cannot be defended in any way. There is no excuse for the antisemitic behavior exhibited last night,” it added.

The violence erupted despite a ban on a pro-Palestinian demonstration near the soccer stadium imposed by Amsterdam Mayor Femke Halsema, who had feared that clashes would break out between protesters and supporters of the Israeli soccer club.

There were also incidents involving fans ahead of the match. Dutch broadcaster NOS reported that a Palestinian flag was ripped off a building in the center of the city and riot police blocked pro-Palestinian supporters trying to march toward the Johan Cruyff Arena stadium where the match was being played.

Israel initially ordered that two planes be sent to the Dutch capital to bring the Israelis home, but later the prime minister's office said it would work on "providing civil aviation solutions for the return of our citizens.''

A statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said that “the harsh pictures of the assault on our citizens in Amsterdam will not be overlooked," and that Netanyahu "views the horrifying incident with utmost gravity." He demanded that the Dutch government take “vigorous and swift action" against those involved.

Netanyahu's office added that he had called for increased security for the Jewish community in the Netherlands.

Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof said on X that he followed reports of the violence “with horror.”

“Completely unacceptable antisemitic attacks on Israelis. I am in close contact with everyone involved,” he added, saying that he had spoken to Netanyahu and “emphasized that the perpetrators will be tracked down and prosecuted. It is now quiet in the capital.”

Security issues around hosting games against visiting Israeli teams led the Belgian soccer federation to decline to stage a men’s Nations League game in September. That game against Israel was played in Hungary with no fans in the stadium.

The violence in Amsterdam will no doubt lead to a review of security at upcoming matches involving Israeli teams.

European soccer body UEFA announced already on Monday that Maccabi’s next Europa League match, scheduled in Istanbul on Nov. 28 against Turkish team Besiktas, would be moved to a yet-to-be-decided neutral venue “following a decision by the Turkish authorities.”

Meanwhile, Israel’s national team is scheduled to play France in Paris next Thursday in the Nations League.

In this image taken from video, police stand guard as Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters light flares at the Dam square, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. (AP Photo InterVision)

In this image taken from video, police stand guard as Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters light flares at the Dam square, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. (AP Photo InterVision)

In this image taken from video, police escort Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters to the metro, after pro-Palestinian supporters marched near the soccer stadium, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. (AP Photo InterVision)

In this image taken from video, police escort Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters to the metro, after pro-Palestinian supporters marched near the soccer stadium, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. (AP Photo InterVision)

In this image taken from video, police detain a person next to the place where Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters gather ahead of the Europa League soccer match between their team and Ajax, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. (AP Photo InterVision)

In this image taken from video, police detain a person next to the place where Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters gather ahead of the Europa League soccer match between their team and Ajax, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. (AP Photo InterVision)

In this image taken from video, pro-Palestinian supporters march with Palestinian flags near the Ajax stadium in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. (AP Photo InterVision)

In this image taken from video, pro-Palestinian supporters march with Palestinian flags near the Ajax stadium in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. (AP Photo InterVision)

In this image taken from video, police frisk pro-Palestinian supporters near the Ajax stadium in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. (AP Photo InterVision)

In this image taken from video, police frisk pro-Palestinian supporters near the Ajax stadium in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. (AP Photo InterVision)

In this image taken from video, police detain a man near the Ajax stadium, after pro-Palestinian supporters marched despite a ban on pro-Palestinian demonstrations near the soccer stadium, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. (AP Photo InterVision)

In this image taken from video, police detain a man near the Ajax stadium, after pro-Palestinian supporters marched despite a ban on pro-Palestinian demonstrations near the soccer stadium, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. (AP Photo InterVision)

In this image taken from video, police stand guard forming a line near the Ajax stadium, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. (AP Photo InterVision)

In this image taken from video, police stand guard forming a line near the Ajax stadium, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. (AP Photo InterVision)

In this image taken from video, police escort Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters to the metro station leading them to the Ajax stadium, after pro-Palestinian supporters marched near the stadium, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. (AP Photo InterVision)

In this image taken from video, police escort Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters to the metro station leading them to the Ajax stadium, after pro-Palestinian supporters marched near the stadium, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. (AP Photo InterVision)

Recommended Articles