BAKU, Azerbaijan (AP) — A complex international two-week-long game of climate change poker is convening. The stakes? Just the fate of an ever-warming world.
Curbing and coping with climate change's worsening heat, floods, droughts and storms will cost trillions of dollars and poor nations just don't have it, numerous reports and experts calculate. As United Nations climate negotiations started Monday in Baku, Azerbaijan, the chief issue is who must ante up to help poor nations and especially how much.
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FILE - A solar farm operates near wind turbines in Quy Non, Vietnam on June 11, 2023. (AP Photo/Minh Hoang, File)
FILE - People wade in a flooded street in the aftermath of Typhoon Yagi, in Hanoi, Vietnam, on Sept. 12, 2024. (AP Photo/Hau Dinh, File)
FILE - Mark Munyua, CP solar's technician, examines solar panels on the roof of a company in Nairobi, Kenya, Sept. 1, 2023. (AP Photo/Brian Inganga, File)
FILE - Tug boats pull barges fully loaded with coal on the Mahakam River in Samarinda, East Kalimantan, Indonesia, on Dec. 19, 2022. (AP Photo/Dita Alangkara, File)
FILE - Children play near solar panels on the roof of house in Walatungga village on Sumba Island, Indonesia, March 21, 2023. (AP Photo/Dita Alangkara)
FILE - Volunteers wade through a flooded road in the aftermath of Hurricane Dorian to rescue families near the Causarina bridge in Freeport, Grand Bahama, Bahamas, on Sept. 3, 2019. (AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa)
The numbers are enormous. The floor in negotiations is the $100 billion a year that poor nations — based on a categorization made in the 1990s — now get as part of a 2009 agreement that was barely met. Several experts and poorer nations say the need is $1 trillion a year or more.
“It's a game with high stakes,” said Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare, a physicist. “Right now the fate of the planet depends very much on what we're able to pull off in the next five or 10 years.”
But this year's talks, known as COP29, won't be as high-profile as last year's, with 48 fewer heads of state scheduled to speak. The leaders of the top two carbon polluting countries — China and the United States — will be absent. But if money negotiations fail in Baku, it will handicap 2025’s make-or-break climate negotiations, experts say.
Not only is dealing with money always a touchy subject, but two of the rich countries that are expected to donate money to poor nations — the United States and Germany — are in the midst of dramatic government changes. Even though the United States delegation will be from Biden Administration, the reelection of Donald Trump, who downplays climate change and dislikes foreign aid, makes U.S. pledges unlikely to be fulfilled.
The overarching issue is climate finance. Without it, experts say the world can't get a handle on fighting warming, nor can most of the nations achieve their current carbon pollution-cutting goals or the new ones they will submit next year.
“If we don't solve the finance problem, then definitely we will not solve the climate problem,” said former Colombian deputy climate minister Pablo Vieira, who heads the support unit at NDC Partnership, which helps nations with emissions-cutting goals.
Nations can't cut carbon pollution if they can't afford to eliminate coal, oil and gas, Vieira and several other experts said. Poor nations are frustrated that they are being told to do more to fight climate change when they cannot afford it, he said. And the 47 poorest nations only created 4% of the heat-trapping gases in the air, according to the U.N.
About 77% of the heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere now comes from the G20 rich nations, many of whom are now cutting back on their pollution, something that is not happening in most poor nations or China.
“The countries that are rich today have become rich by polluting the Earth,” said Ani Dasgupta, president of World Resources Institute.
The money being discussed is for three things: Helping poor nations switch from dirty fossil fuels to clean energy; helping them adapt to the impacts of a warming world such as sea level rise and worsening storms; and compensating vulnerable poor nations for climate change damage.
“Should the global community fail to reach a (finance) goal, this is really just signing the death warrant of many developing countries," said Chukwumerije Okereke, director of the Center for Climate Change and Development in Nigeria.
Michael Wilkins, a business professor who heads Imperial College's Centre for Climate Finance and Investment in the U.K., said since 2022 total climate finance has been nearly $1.5 trillion. But only 3% of that is actually geared toward the least developed countries, he said.
“The Global South has been repeatedly let down by unmet pledges and commitments,” said Sunita Narain, director general of New Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment.
“Finance is really the key component that compels all types of climate action,” said Bahamian climate scientist Adelle Thomas, adaptation director at the Natural Resources Defense Council. “Without that finance, there's simply not much that developing countries in particular can do.”
It's an issue of both self-interest and justice, Thomas and others said. It's not charity to help poor nations decarbonize because rich nations benefit when all countries cut emissions. After all, a warming world hurts everyone.
Compensating for climate damage and helping nations prepare for future harm is a matter of justice, Thomas said. Even though they didn't create the problem, poor nations — especially small island nations — are particularly vulnerable to climate change's rising seas and extreme weather. Thomas mentioned how 2019's Hurricane Dorian smacked her grandparents home and “the only thing left standing was one toilet.”
The trillion-dollar figure on the table is about half of what the world spends annually on the military. Others say global fossil fuel subsidies could be redirected to climate finance; estimates of those subsidies range from the International Energy Agency’s $616 billion a year to the International Monetary Fund’s $7 trillion a year.
“When we need more for other things, including conflict, we seem to find it,” United Nations Environment Programme Executive Director Inger Andersen said. “Well, this is probably the largest conflict of all.”
A U.N. climate finance committee report looked at the need from 98 countries and estimated it as ranging from $455 billion to $584 billion per year.
The money isn't just direct government aid from one nation to another. Some of it comes from multinational development finance banks, like the World Bank. There's also private investment that will be considered a large chunk. Developing nations are seeking relief from their $29 trillion global debt.
Andersen said at least a sixfold increase in investment would be required to get on the path to limit future warming to just another two-tenths of a degree Celsius (0.4 degrees Fahrenheit) from now, which is the overarching goal the world adopted in 2015.
Andersen's agency calculated that with nations' current emissions-curbing targets, the difference between well-financed and current efforts translates to half a degree Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) less future warming. Experts say stepped-up efforts that could reduce future warming even more also costs more.
Who will pay is another sticking point. Climate talks for decades have used 1992 standards to categorize two groups of nations, essentially rich and poor, deciding that rich nations like the U.S. are the ones to financially help poor ones. Financial circumstances have changed. China, the world’s top carbon polluter, has increased its per capita GDP by more than 30 times since then. But neither China nor some rich oil nations are obligated to help in climate finance.
Developed nations want those countries that couldn't afford to give before, but now can, included in the next round of donors. But those nations don't want those obligations, said E3G analyst Alden Meyer, a climate negotiations veteran.
“It’s a very fraught landscape to think about huge scale-up of existing climate finance,” Meyer said.
Associated Press reporter Sibi Arasu contributed to this report from Bengaluru, India.
Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment
Follow Seth Borenstein on X at @borenbears
The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.
FILE - A solar farm operates near wind turbines in Quy Non, Vietnam on June 11, 2023. (AP Photo/Minh Hoang, File)
FILE - People wade in a flooded street in the aftermath of Typhoon Yagi, in Hanoi, Vietnam, on Sept. 12, 2024. (AP Photo/Hau Dinh, File)
FILE - Mark Munyua, CP solar's technician, examines solar panels on the roof of a company in Nairobi, Kenya, Sept. 1, 2023. (AP Photo/Brian Inganga, File)
FILE - Tug boats pull barges fully loaded with coal on the Mahakam River in Samarinda, East Kalimantan, Indonesia, on Dec. 19, 2022. (AP Photo/Dita Alangkara, File)
FILE - Children play near solar panels on the roof of house in Walatungga village on Sumba Island, Indonesia, March 21, 2023. (AP Photo/Dita Alangkara)
FILE - Volunteers wade through a flooded road in the aftermath of Hurricane Dorian to rescue families near the Causarina bridge in Freeport, Grand Bahama, Bahamas, on Sept. 3, 2019. (AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa)
Israeli airstrikes killed at least 18 people in the Gaza Strip on Thursday, including three children and two high-ranking officers in the Hamas-run police force, according to Palestinian and hospital officials.
One strike early Thursday hit a tent in an Israeli-declared humanitarian zone known as Muwasi, where hundreds of thousands of displaced people are sheltering in tents during the cold and rainy winter.
Another strike killed at least eight Palestinians in the central Gaza Strip. The dead were members of local committees that help secure aid convoys, according to Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, which received the bodies. An Associated Press reporter at the hospital confirmed the toll.
There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military on the strikes.
Israel’s offensive has killed over 45,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to local health officials, who say women and children make up more than half the fatalities. The officials do not distinguish between civilians and combatants in their tally.
The war was sparked by Hamas-led militants' Oct. 7, 2023 attack into Israel. They killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducted around 250 that day. Around 100 hostages are still inside Gaza, at least a third of whom are believed to be dead.
Here's the latest:
JERUSALEM -- The Israeli military has claimed responsibility for a nighttime raid in Syria last September in which it says dozens of commandos destroyed a top-secret Iranian-led missile factory.
Israeli military spokesman Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani said Thursday that Iran, working with its Syrian and the Hezbollah allies, planned to build hundreds of precision guided missiles per year at the factory that could be transferred to Lebanon. He said the facility was located in western Syria around the town of Masyaf near the Lebanese border.
He said Israel had been monitoring the underground facility for several years, but decided to strike at a time when Israel was at war with Hezbollah and the factory was becoming operational.
“This facility posed a clear threat to the state of Israel and this is why we had to take action,” he said.
Shoshani said over 100 special force soldiers took part in the Sept. 8 raid, backed by dozens of aircraft. Calling it one of Israel’s most complex operations in years, he said soldiers arrived by helicopter and entered the facility, which he said was dug deep into the side of a mountain.
In bodycam footage released by the Israeli military, special forces are seen moving through wide underground hallways and seizing documents, before a large explosion destroys the site. The video, which could not be independently verified, also showed images of what the army said was missile-manufacturing equipment.
At the time, Syrian state media reported four deaths from a series of Israeli airstrikes in the area. Shoshani said there were no Israeli casualties, and that Israel also damaged another missile-production facility in Lebanon during the war.
Israel and Hezbollah reached a cease-fire in late November, halting nearly 14 months of fighting.
JERUSALEM — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was released from the hospital Thursday after recovering from prostate surgery Sunday.
Doctors at Hadassah Ein Kerem Hospital said Netanyahu was recuperating satisfactorily, although he still has a period of recovery ahead. Medical follow-ups will continue as usual, according to a hospital statement.
Despite doctor’s orders to remain hospitalized, the 75-year-old leader had briefly left the facility to participate in a vote in Israel’s parliament on Tuesday.
KYIV, Ukraine – Ukraine’s president says his country is poised to reestablish diplomatic ties with Syria after the fall of President Bashar Assad and sharply increase agricultural exports to Lebanon despite being engaged in an almost three-year war with Russia.
The developments came after a recent visit to those countries by Ukraine’s top diplomat and its government minister for farming, according to a statement from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday. Ukraine is aiming to build up its security and trade relations in the Middle East, he said.
Ukraine and Syria are assessing cooperation within international organizations, and Syria could this year become a “reliable partner” for Ukraine, Zelenskyy said.
The Ukrainian officials met with Syria’s new de facto authorities led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The insurgents had ousted Assad, a longtime ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, in early December.
Ukrainian agricultural exports to Lebanon are around $400 million a year but Zelenskyy said he hopes to at least double that.
Ukraine is a leading world producer of wheat, corn, barley, sunflower oil and other food products.
JERUSALEM — The Israeli military says it targeted a senior member of Hamas’ internal security apparatus in a strike in the Gaza Strip that Palestinian officials say killed nine other people, including three children.
The strike early Thursday hit a tent in an Israeli-declared humanitarian zone known as Muwasi, where hundreds of thousands of displaced people are sheltering in tents during the cold and rainy winter.
The military said Hossam Shahwan, a senior officer in the Hamas-run police force in Gaza, was involved in gathering intelligence used by Hamas’ armed wing in attacks on Israeli forces.
Maj. Gen. Mahmoud Salah, another senior police official, was also killed in the strike.
The military says Hamas militants hide among civilians and blames the group for their deaths in the nearly 15-month war, which was ignited by Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack into Israel.
The Hamas-run government had a police force numbering in the tens of thousands that maintained a high degree of public security before the war while also violently suppressing dissent.
The police have largely vanished from the streets in many areas after being targeted by Israel, contributing to the breakdown of law and order that has hindered the delivery of desperately needed humanitarian aid.
DAMASCUS, Syria — The forces together with armed vehicles were deployed in the city of Homs Thursday to look for the militants affiliated with ousted President Bashar Assad, state media reported.
SANA, citing a military official, said that the new de facto authorities led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham had set up centers in Syria’s third-largest city for former soldiers and militants to hand over their weapons, similar to other parts of Syria.
In early December, a lightning insurgency took out the decades-long rule of Assad in less than two weeks. HTS has since run much of war-torn Syria under the authority of its leader Ahmad al-Sharaa.
Officials who were part of Assad's notorious web of intelligence and security apparatus have been arrested over the past few weeks.
DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip: An Israeli strike has killed at least eight Palestinian men in the central Gaza Strip.
The dead were members of local committees that help secure aid convoys, according to Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, which received the bodies. An Associated Press reporter at the hospital confirmed the toll.
Earlier on Thursday, an Israeli airstrike in southern Gaza killed at least 10 people, including three children and two senior officers in the Hamas-run police.
There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military on the strikes.
Israel has repeatedly targeted the police, contributing to a breakdown of law and order in the territory that has made it difficult for humanitarian groups to deliver aid. Israel accuses Hamas of hijacking aid for its own purposes.
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Al Jazeera has condemned the Palestinian Authority’s decision to bar it from operating in the occupied West Bank, saying the decision was “in line” with similar actions taken by Israel.
In a statement Thursday, the Qatar-based broadcaster accused the Western-backed authority of seeking to “hide the truth about events in the occupied territories, especially what is happening in Jenin and its camps.”
The Palestinian Authority, which cooperates with Israel on security matters, launched a rare crackdown on anti-Israel militants in the urban Jenin refugee camp last month. The authority has international support but is unpopular among many Palestinians, with critics portraying it as a subcontractor of the Israeli occupation.
The Palestinian Authority announced the suspension of Al Jazeera’s activities on Wednesday, accusing it of incitement and interfering in Palestinian internal affairs. The Palestinian Authority exercises limited autonomy in parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
Israel banned Al Jazeera last year, accusing it of being a mouthpiece of Hamas. Israeli strikes have killed or wounded several Al Jazeera reporters in Gaza, and Israel has accused some of them of being militants. Israeli forces raided Al Jazeera’s West Bank headquarters last year, but the broadcaster has continued to operate in the territory.
Al Jazeera denies the allegations and accuses Israel of trying to silence its coverage. Its 24-hour reporting from Gaza has focused on the deaths of Palestinian civilians. It has also broadcast Hamas and other militant videos in their entirety, showing attacks on Israeli forces and hostages speaking under duress.
Palestinian children play next to a building destroyed by Israeli army strikes in the central Gaza Strip town of Khan Younis, Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Israeli soldiers stand in a bullet-ridden house during a tour for army personnel to observe the damage caused by the Oct. 7 Hamas onslaught at Kibbutz Kfar Aza, near the Israeli-Gaza border, in Israel, Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)
An Israeli soldier jumps off an armoured vehicle at a staging area near the Gaza border in southern Israel, Thursday Jan. 2, 2025. (AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov))
Palestinians prepare the body for the funeral of a man killed during an Israeli army strike in Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, Thursday Jan. 2, 2025. The strike killed at least eight men members of local committees that help secure aid convoys, according to the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, which received the bodies.(AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
A man reacts in grief as the body of 8-year-old Adam Farajallah is brought to Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital following an airstrike on a house in the Bureij refugee camp, in the central Gaza Strip town of Deir al-Balah Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
A man mourns over the body of a Palestinian man killed during an Israeli army strike in Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, Thursday Jan. 2, 2025. The strike killed at least eight men members of local committees that help secure aid convoys, according to the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, which received the bodies.(AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinian girls collect donated food at a food distribution center in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, Thursday Jan. 2, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
An Israeli soldier covers his ears as an artillery gunner fires into the Gaza Strip from a position in southern Israel, Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025.(AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)
A destroyed part of Gaza City as seen from southern Israel, Thursday Jan. 2, 2025. (AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov))
Palestinians inspect the site of an earlier Israeli army strike in the Muwasi area, in Khan Younis, central Gaza Strip, Thursday Jan. 2, 2025. According to Palestinian medical officials, the airstrike killed at least 10 people, including three children and two senior police officers, in an Israeli-designated humanitarian zone in the Gaza Strip. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
