Round 2 in the Trump-vs-Mexico matchup looks ominous for Mexico

MEXICO CITY (AP) — Mexico is facing a second Donald Trump presidency, and few countries can match its experience as a target of Trump's rhetoric: There have been threats to close the border, impose tariffs and even send U.S. forces to fight Mexican drug cartels if the country doesn’t do more to stem the flow of migrants and drugs.

That’s not to mention what mass deportations of migrants who are in the U.S. illegally could do to remittances — the money sent home by migrants — that have become one of Mexico’s main sources of income.

But as much as this second round looks like the first round — when Mexico pacified Trump by quietly ceding to his immigration demands — circumstances have changed, and not necessarily for the better. Today, Mexico has in Claudia Sheinbaum a somewhat stern leftist ideologue as president, and Trump is not known for handling such relations well.

Back in 2019, Mexico’s then-President Andrés Manuel López Obrador was a charismatic, plain-spoken, folksy leader who seemed to understand Trump, because both had a transactional view of politics: You give me what I want, I’ll give you what you want. The two went on to form a chummy relationship.

But while López Obrador was forged in the give-and-take politics of the often-corrupt former ruling party, the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, Sheinbaum grew up in a family of leftist activists and got her political experience in radical university student movements.

“Claudia is more ideological than López Obrador, and so the problem is that I see her potentially responding to Trumpian policies, whether it’s, you know, organized crime or immigration or tariffs with a much more nationalistic, jingoistic view of the relationship,” said Arturo Sarukhan, Mexico’s former ambassador to the U.S. from 2007 to 2013.

Sheinbaum made a point of being one of the first world leaders to call Trump on Thursday to congratulate him after the election, but during the call Trump did two things that may say a lot about how things will go.

First, Sheinbaum said, Trump quickly brought up the border to remind her there were issues there. Then he asked Sheinbaum to send his greetings to López Obrador, with whom Trump said he had “a very good relationship.” That might suggest that Trump believes that López Obrador — the new president's political mentor — is still in charge, a view shared by some analysts.

Sarukhan said he believes the fact that Sheinbaum is a woman and is from Mexico will be "a very important challenge, an issue out there as both of them get going in their relationship.”

There's little likelihood that Trump will get caught up in other issues and just forget about Mexico. Karoline Leavitt, the Trump-Vance transition spokeswoman, said Trump had been given "a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail. He will deliver.”

Not everything has changed for the worse: Cross-border trade has topped $800 billion per year and U.S. companies are more dependent than ever on Mexican plants.

But the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, or USMCA, is coming up for review, and Mexico has made legal changes that Trump could seize on to demand a re-negotiation of parts of the deal.

Sheinbaum has suggested Mexico won't give in even if backed into a corner, saying “we obviously are going to address any problems that come up with dialogue, as a collaborative process, and if not, we are going to stand up, we are prepared to do that with great unity.”

Standing up hasn’t worked particularly well before. In 2018, Marcelo Ebrard was Mexico’s top diplomat; former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Ebrard basically bent to U.S. demands to keep asylum seekers in Mexico and accept migrants back even if they weren’t Mexicans.

Ebrard just asked that the deal not be made public to avoid embarrassing López Obrador, Pompeo wrote. (Ebrard later claimed he had avoided signing a much worse "safe third country’" agreement.)

Today, Ebrard is Mexico’s economy secretary, and would lead Mexico’s delegation in the scheduled 2026 review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement, something that Trump has greeted with mirth ("I've never seen anybody fold like that," Trump once said of Ebrard.)

Ebrard on Thursday downplayed any risks this time around, saying e conomic ties between the two countries would keep Trump from closing borders or imposing tariffs.

“I am optimistic. Unlike other countries, we are the largest trading partner (of the U.S.), so, if you put up a tariff, that will have repercussions in the United States,” Ebrard said. “I’m not saying it is going to be easy, because it is not at all easy, but the relationship with President Trump will be good because, what unites us? These numbers, this gigantic economy.”

But some former diplomats say any argument that Mexico can avoid friction with the Trump administration is overconfident, and that 2025 is not necessarily going to be like 2019.

Martha Bárcena, Mexico’s ambassador to the U.S. from 2018 to 2021, said she doesn't think Trump would back away from campaign promises to deport migrants who are in the country illegally. She said Mexican officials who believe Trump might temper his “campaign promises because Mexican migrants are necessary for the U.S. economy” are being overly optimistic.

“Mexico is looking at it through the lens of economic logic. The logic that the Trump campaign applies on immigration is a logic of national security and cultural identity issues," Bárcena said.

Some of Trump's biggest policy concerns – restoring U.S. jobs and the increasing rivalry with China — also run through Mexico.

U.S. and foreign automakers have set up dozens of plants in Mexico, and some in the U.S. worry that Chinese companies could do the same to take advantage of existing trade rules to export Chinese cars or auto parts to the United States.

It doesn’t help that Sheinbaum has pushed through López Obrador’s policies aimed at eliminating independent regulatory and oversight bodies, and laws the U.S. government says could reduce the independence of the judiciary, both of which are required under the USMCA trade agreement.

“If they go ahead with the elimination of independent regulators and autonomous bodies, that’s going to be a further violation of the USMCA,” Sarukhan said. “And then that’s going to make things even worse. Obviously, the big piece is going to be China and the Chinese footprint in Mexico.”

That could lead Trump to demand the re-negotiation of all auto industry agreements under the trade pact.

As far as efforts to jointly combat the illegal drug trade — such cooperation fell to historic lows in 2019 and 2020 — there have been some modestly encouraging signs. Last week, Mexico announced the seizure in Tijuana of over 300,000 fentanyl pills after months when t he country’s entire seizures had amounted to as little as 50 grams — a couple of ounces — per week.

Sheinbaum, who took office on Oct. 1, also appears to be tacitly abandoning López Obrador’s strategy of not confronting drug cartels. But neither she nor her predecessor and political mentor could ever accept any Trump plan to send U.S. forces to operate independently on Mexican soil.

It remains to see how far Trump might go; he often makes only token gestures to carry through on threats. But Sarukhan noted, “I do think that he will talk loudly and carry a big stick.”

AP Writer Adriana Gomez Licon in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. contributed to this report.

FILE - Migrants line up at the Paso del Norte international bridge to present to U.S. agents documents requesting an appointment to apply for asylum, in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, Nov. 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Christian Chavez, File)

FILE - Newly-named Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard makes a “you go first” gesture to incoming President Claudia Sheinbaum, as they exit a press conference where Sheinbaum presented six members of her Cabinet, in Mexico City, June 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Marco Ugarte, File)

FILE - Mexican Ambassador Martha Barcena, left, and Foreign Affairs Minister Marcelo Ebrard attend a news conference at the Mexican Embassy in Washington, June 3, 2019, as part of a Mexican delegation in Washington for talks following trade tariff threats from the Trump Administration. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

FILE - Cars exit the General Motors assembly plant in Villa de Reyes, outside San Luis Potosi, Mexico, Jan. 4, 2017. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)

FILE - An SUV model built in Mexico for Chinese state-owned automaker JAC Motors is presented in the country's first JAC showroom, in Naucalpan, on the outskirts of Mexico City, March 28, 2017. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)

FILE - Justice employees hold up cutouts of Supreme Court justices in a show of support as they discuss a draft ruling that proposes the partial invalidation of the judicial reform approved by Congress, in Mexico City, Nov. 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano, File)

Newly inaugurated Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum smiles as she holds the staff of office during a rally in the Zócalo, Mexico City's main square, Oct. 1, 2024. (AP Photo/Eduardo Verdugo, File)

FILE - President Donald Trump signs a new North American trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, at the White House in Washington, Jan. 29, 2020. (AP Photo/ Evan Vucci, File)

FILE - Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, left, and Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard attend a news conference at the National Palace in Mexico City, Oct. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano, File)

Round 2 in the Trump-vs-Mexico matchup looks ominous for Mexico

FILE - Mexico's President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, left, and President Donald Trump hold a joint news conference at the White House in Washington, July 8, 2020. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

Round 2 in the Trump-vs-Mexico matchup looks ominous for Mexico

WASHINGTON (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump stunned the Pentagon and the broader defense world by nominating Fox News host Pete Hegseth to serve as his defense secretary, tapping someone largely inexperienced and untested on the global stage to take over the world's largest and most powerful military.

The news was met with bewilderment and worry among many in Washington as Trump passed on a number of established national security heavy-hitters and chose an Army National Guard captain well known in conservative circles as a co-host of Fox News Channel’s “Fox & Friends Weekend.”

While some Republican lawmakers had a muted response to the announcement, others called his combat experience an asset or said he was “tremendously capable.”

Hegseth's choice could bring sweeping changes to the military. He has made it clear on his show and in interviews that, like Trump, he is opposed to “woke” programs that promote equity and inclusion. He also has questioned the role of women in combat and advocated pardoning service members charged with war crimes.

In June, at a rally in Las Vegas, Trump encouraged his supporters to buy Hegseth’s book and said that if he won the presidency, "The woke stuff will be gone within a period of 24 hours. I can tell you.”

The 44-year-old Hegseth, a staunch conservative who embraces Trump's “America First” policies, has pushed for making the military more lethal. During an interview on “The Shawn Ryan Show” podcast, he said allowing women to serve in combat hurts that effort.

“Everything about men and women serving together makes the situation more complicated, and complication in combat, that means casualties are worse,” Hegseth said.

And while he said diversity in the military is a strength, he said it was because minority and white men can perform similarly but the same isn't true for women.

By opening combat slots to women, “we’ve changed the standards in putting them there, which means you’ve changed the capability of that unit,” Hegseth said in the podcast interview.

Since then-Defense Secretary Ash Carter opened all combat roles to women in 2016, women have successfully passed the military's grueling tests to become Green Berets and Army Rangers, and the Naval Special Warfare's test to serve as a combatant-craft crewman — the boat operators who transport Navy SEALs and conduct their own classified missions at sea.

While Trump lauded Hegseth as “tough, smart and a true believer in America First,” others were quick to point to the TV personality's lack of experience. Some suggested he could be Pentagon chief in name only as the Trump White House runs the department.

A number of other names floated as possible defense choices had included Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Ala., chairman of the House Armed Services Committee; retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg; Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa; and Robert Wilkie, a former Pentagon official who was head of the Department of Veterans Affairs in Trump's first term.

“There is reason for concern that this is not a person who is a serious enough policymaker, serious enough policy implementer, to do a successful job,” said Rep. Adam Smith of Washington, the ranking Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee.

Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Hegseth's lack of senior national security experience makes it more difficult to get Senate confirmation.

“I think Trump was tired of fighting with his secretaries of defense and picked one who would be loyal to him,” Cancian said.

Military officials said the choice came out of the blue. A senior military officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media, said Hegseth's selection is raising concerns about whether he has the practical experience to manage a large department with an enormous budget.

The Defense Department has a budget exceeding $800 billion, with about 1.3 million active-duty troops and another 1.4 million in the National Guard, Reserves and civilian employees based worldwide.

If confirmed, Hegseth would face a daunting array of global crises, from the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine and the expanding alliance between Russia and North Korea to the growing competition with China. There is also the need to upgrade the complex U.S. missile and nuclear defense apparatus and ensure the defense industry can keep up with America's need for weapons systems.

Smith said that while Hegseth's combat experience is a plus, running the Pentagon requires a lot of other skill sets, and his nomination will need some time for consideration.

“What’s your plan? What are you going to do? ... How can you assure us that that lack of experience, you know, isn’t going to make it impossible for you to do the job?” Smith said. “I think those are questions that need to be answered over the next couple of months.”

Even some Republicans in the Senate, who would vote on his nomination, had a subdued response.

North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis called the choice “interesting.” Indiana Sen. Todd Young, who served in the Marine Corps, said, “I don’t know much about his background or his vision, so I look forward to learning more.”

North Dakota Sen. John Hoeven said he’s not surprised that Trump chose Hegseth because Trump is “close to him and likes him and trusts him.”

“The guy’s obviously tremendously capable, a great communicator," Hoeven said. "I look forward to getting to know him better.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said Hegseth brings a lot to the table and will be "reform-minded in the areas that need reform.”

Hegseth has been a contributor since 2014 for Fox News, developing a friendship with Trump, who made regular appearances on his show. He is the author of “The War on Warriors: Behind the Betrayal of the Men Who Keep Us Free.”

“With Pete at the helm, America’s enemies are on notice — Our Military will be Great Again, and America will Never Back Down,” Trump said in a statement. “Nobody fights harder for the Troops, and Pete will be a courageous and patriotic champion of our ‘Peace through Strength’ policy.”

Associated Press writers Jill Colvin in New York and Lisa Mascaro, Mary Clare Jalonick and Farnoush Amiri contributed to this report.

FILE - Pete Hegseth walks to an elevator for a meeting with President-elect Donald Trump at Trump Tower in New York, Dec. 15, 2016. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

File - President Donald Trump appears on Fox & Friends co-host Pete Hegseth at a Wounded Warrior Project Soldier Ride event in the East Room of the White House in Washington, Thursday, April 6, 2017. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

Trump's defense choice stuns the Pentagon, raises questions about the Fox News host's experience

Trump's defense choice stuns the Pentagon, raises questions about the Fox News host's experience