Earth's projected warming hasn't improved for 3 years. UN climate talks are still pushing

BAKU, Azerbaijan (AP) — For the third straight year, efforts to fight climate change haven't lowered projections for how hot the world is likely to get — even as countries gather for another round of talks to curb warming, according to an analysis Thursday.

At the United Nations climate talks, hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, nations are trying to set new targets to cut emissions of heat-trapping gases and figure out how much rich nations will pay to help the world with that task.

But Earth remains on a path to be 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial times, according to Climate Action Tracker, a group of scientists and analysts who study government policies and translate that into projections of warming.

If emissions are still rising and temperature projections are no longer dropping, people should wonder if the United Nations climate negotiations — known as COP — are doing any good, said Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare.

“There’s an awful lot going on that’s positive here, but on the big picture of actually getting stuff done to reduce emissions ... to me it feels broken,” Hare said.

The world has already warmed 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times. That's near the 1.5-degree (2.7 F) limit that countries agreed to at 2015 climate talks in Paris. Climate scientists say the atmospheric warming, mainly from human burning of fossil fuels, is causing ever more extreme and damaging weather including droughts, flooding and dangerous heat.

Climate Action Tracker does projections under several different scenarios, and in some cases, those are going up slightly.

“This is driven highly by China,” said Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga of Climate Analytics. Even though China's fast-rising emissions are starting to plateau, they are peaking higher than anticipated, she said.

Another upcoming factor not yet in the calculations is the U.S. elections. A Trump administration that rolls back the climate policies in the Inflation Reduction Act, and carries out the conservative blueprint Project 2025, would add 0.04 degree Celsius (0.07 Fahrenheit) to warming projections, Gonzales-Zuniga said. That's not much, but it could be more if other nations use it as an excuse to do less, she said.

“Fossil fuels and emissions are not peaking,” said Sherry Rehman, chair of climate and environment committee in Pakistan’s senate. After 29 years of climate talks, Rehman said countries are “still talking in bumper stickers.”

“We need a transformative solution. We need strong delivery,” Rehman said.

The major battle in Baku is over how much rich nations will pay for developing countries to decarbonize their energy systems, cope with future harms of climate change and pay for damage from warming's extreme weather.

A special independent group of experts commissioned by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued its own estimate of costs and finances on Thursday, calling for a tripling of the old commitment. It said about $1 trillion a year is needed by developing nations from all outside sources, not just government grants.

“Advanced economies need to demonstrate a credible commitment” to helping poor nations, the report said.

Negotiations on a grand total and structuring the overall amount have taken “a step back” when a draft of just a few pages that was worked on for a year was rejected and the latest proposal with many options has more than 30 pages, said top European negotiator Veronika Bagi of Hungary. European Commission negotiator Jacob Werksman said there’s a “very significant gap″ between what rich and poor nations propose.

German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan said “private investment has to be brought to the table” in order to fulfill developing countries needs. But Mariana Paoli of Christian Aid said any number that comes out of negotiations that's not based in publicly-financed grants “will be meaningless.”

Relying on the private sector means climate cash will not be “needs based, it will be profit-driven," she said, adding that crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and bank bailouts proves that public funds are available.

“It’s about fairness, it’s about justice,” she said.

Getting climate cash is personal for many activists from vulnerable nations, like Sandra Leticia Guzman Luna, who is from Mexico and the director of the climate finance group for Latin America and the Caribbean. “We are observing the climate impacts causing a lot of costs, not only economic costs but also human losses,” she said.

Argentina withdrew from the climate talks on Wednesday on the orders of its president, climate skeptic Javier Milei. The Argentine government did not respond to requests from The Associated Press for comment.

Climate activists called the decision regrettable.

“It’s difficult to understand how a climate-vulnerable country like Argentina would cut itself from critical support," said Anabella Rosemberg, an Argentina native who works as a senior adviser at Climate Action Network International.

Also Wednesday, France's environment minister, who was set to lead the delegation, pulled out of the talks after Azerbaijan president Ilham Aliyev called out France and the Netherlands for their colonial histories.

Agnès Pannier-Runacher called Aliyev’s remarks on France and Europe “unacceptable." Speaking at the French Senate on Wednesday, Pannier-Runacher criticized Azerbaijan’s leader for using the fight against climate change “for a shameful personal agenda.”

“The direct attacks on our country, its institutions and its territories are unjustifiable,” she said.

COP29 negotiator Rafiyev declined to comment Thursday on Pannier-Runacher's decision, but said “Azerbaijan has made sure we have inclusive process.”

“We have opened our door for everyone to come for constructive, critical discussions,” he said.

Associated Press reporter Sylvie Corbet contributed from Paris.

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

Activist Luisa Neubauer, of Germany, records on her phone at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)

Mukhtar Babayev, COP29 President, walks through the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)

A person walks past art in the Turkey Pavilion at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits)

People walk outside the Baku Olympic Stadium at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)

Principal advisor for climate at the European Commission Jacob Werksman attends a news conference at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)

Activists participate in a demonstration at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits)

Activists participate in a demonstration calling for climate finance during the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)

State secretary in Germany's economic cooperation ministry Jochen Flasbarth, left, and Jennifer Morgan, Germany climate envoy, attend a news conference at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits)

Activists participate in a demonstration for climate justice during the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)

Attendees arrive for the day at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)

Activists participate in a demonstration calling for climate finance during the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)

Activists with signs spell out "pay up" for climate finance in the Baku Olympic Stadium during the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits)

Attendees arrive for the day at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)

Activists participate in a demonstration for climate finance at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)

NEW YORK (AP) — As the International Rescue Committee copes with dramatic increases in displaced people in recent years, the refugee aid organization has looked for efficiencies wherever it can — including using artificial intelligence.

Since 2015, the IRC has invested in Signpost — a portfolio of mobile apps and social media channels that answer questions in different languages for people in dangerous situations. The Signpost project, which includes many other organizations, has reached 18 million people so far, but IRC wants to significantly increase its reach by using AI tools.

Conflict, climate emergencies and economic hardship have driven up demand for humanitarian assistance, with more than 117 million people forcibly displaced in 2024, according to the United Nations refugee agency. As humanitarian organizations encounter more people in need, they are also facing enormous funding shortfalls. The turn to artificial intelligence technologies is in part driven by this massive gap between needs and resources.

To meet its goal of reaching half of displaced people within three years, the IRC is building a network of AI chatbots that can increase the capacity of their humanitarian officers and the local organizations that directly serve people through Signpost. For now, the project operates in El Salvador, Kenya, Greece and Italy and responds in 11 languages. It draws on a combination of large language models from some of the biggest technology companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic and Google.

The chatbot response system also uses customer service software from Zendesk and receives other support from Google and Cisco Systems.

Beyond developing these tools, the IRC wants to extend this infrastructure to other nonprofit humanitarian organizations at no cost. They hope to create shared technology resources that less technically focused organizations could use without having to negotiate directly with tech companies or manage the risks of deployment.

“We’re trying to really be clear about where the legitimate concerns are but lean into the optimism of the opportunities and not also allow the populations we serve to be left behind in solutions that have the potential to scale in a way that human to human or other technology can’t," said Jeannie Annan, International Rescue Committee’s Chief Research and Innovation Officer.

The responses and information that Signpost chatbots deliver are vetted by local organizations to be up to date and sensitive to the precarious circumstances people could be in. An example query that IRC shared is of a woman from El Salvador traveling through Mexico to the United States with her son who is looking for shelter and for services for her child. The bot provides a list of providers in the area where she is.

More complex or sensitive queries are escalated for humans to respond.

The most important potential downside of these tools would be that they don't work. For example, what if the situation on the ground changes and the chatbot doesn’t know? It could provide information that's not just wrong, but dangerous.

A second issue is that these tools can amass a valuable honeypot of data about vulnerable people that hostile actors could target. What if a hacker succeeds in accessing data with personal information or if that data is accidentally shared with an oppressive government?

IRC said it's agreed with the tech providers that none of their AI models will be trained on the data that the IRC, the local organizations or the people they are serving are generating. They've also worked to anonymize the data, including removing personal information and location.

As part of the Signpost.AI project, IRC is also testing tools like a digital automated tutor and maps that can integrate many different types of data to help prepare for and respond to crises.

Cathy Petrozzino, who works for the not-for-profit research and development company MITRE, said AI tools do have high potential, but also high risks. To use these tools responsibly, she said, organizations should ask themselves, does the technology work? Is it fair? Are data and privacy protected?

She also emphasized that organizations need to convene a range of people to help govern and design the initiative — not just technical experts, but people with deep knowledge of the context, legal experts, and representatives from the groups that will use the tools.

“There are many good models sitting in the AI graveyard,” she said, “because they weren’t worked out in conjunction and collaboration with the user community.”

For any system that has potentially life-changing impacts, Petrozzino said, groups should bring in outside experts to independently assess their methodologies. Designers of AI tools need to consider the other systems it will interact with, she said, and they need to plan to monitor the model over time.

Consulting with displaced people or others that humanitarian organizations serve may increase the time and effort needed to design these tools, but not having their input raises many safety and ethical problems, said Helen McElhinney, executive director of CDAC Network. It can also unlock local knowledge.

People receiving services from humanitarian organizations should be told if an AI model will analyze any information they hand over, she said, even if the intention is to help the organization respond better. That requires meaningful and informed consent, she said. They should also know if an AI model is making life-changing decisions about resource allocation and where accountability for those decisions lies, she said.

Degan Ali, CEO of Adeso, a nonprofit in Somalia and Kenya, has long been an advocate for changing the power dynamics in international development to give more money and control to local organizations. She asked how IRC and others pursuing these technologies would overcome access issues, pointing to the week-long power outages caused by Hurricane Helene in the U.S. Chatbots won't help when there's no device, internet or electricity, she said.

Ali also warned that few local organizations have the capacity to attend big humanitarian conferences where the ethics of AI are debated. Few have staff both senior enough and knowledgeable enough to really engage with these discussions, she said, though they understand the potential power and impact these technologies may have.

“We must be extraordinarily careful not to replicate power imbalances and biases through technology,” Ali said. “The most complex questions are always going to require local, contextual and lived experience to answer in a meaningful way.”

The Associated Press and OpenAI have a licensing and technology agreement that allows OpenAI access to part of AP’s text archives.

Associated Press coverage of philanthropy and nonprofits receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content. For all of AP’s philanthropy coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/philanthropy.

FILE - Survivors of a migrant shipwreck stand outside a warehouse at the port in Kalamata town, southwest of Athens, Greece, on June 15, 2023. (AP Photo/Thanassis Stavrakis, File)

FILE - People gather outside the Migrant Assistance Office on Oct. 9, 2019 in San Salvador, El Salvador. (AP Photo/Eduardo Verdugo, File)

These undated screenshots provided by the International Rescue Committee show a chatbot using artificial intelligence responding to a test question that refugees or other displaced people could potentially ask. The IRC is testing artificial intelligence tools in a project called Signpost.AI to try to increase the number of displaced people they can reach with critical information. (International Rescue Committee via AP Photo)

FILE - Winnie Keben gives water to her son at Meisori village in Baringo County, Kenya, July 20, 2022. Keben lost her leg to a crocodile attack, and that accident plus the loss of her home to rising water drove her and her family from their village. (AP Photo/Brian Inganga, File)

FILE - Survivors and relatives of victims walk, Feb. 26, 2024, at the site where a migrant boat capsized a year earlier in Steccato di Cutro, on the Italian southern tip. AP Photo/Valeria Ferraro, File)

FILE - Jorge Menjivar, from El Salvador, stands outside the Northern Bus Station in Mexico City, Sept. 22, 2023, during his journey north to the U.S. (AP Photo/Marco Ugarte, File)