Russia grinds deeper into Ukraine after 1,000 days of grueling war

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — When Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine in February 2022, the conventional wisdom was that the capital, Kyiv, would soon fall and the rest of the country wouldn’t last long against a much larger enemy.

Instead, it was that narrative that quickly collapsed. The Ukrainian army proved it could slow the advance of Russia’s forces and, if not drive them out completely, then – with enough support from the West – at least forestall defeat.

But nearly three years later, the outlook is again grim. Russia is expending huge amounts of weaponry and human life to make small-but-steady territorial gains to the nearly one-fifth of Ukraine it already controls. Ukraine, meanwhile, is struggling to minimize losses, maintain morale and convince allies that, with more military aid, it can turn the tide.

As this brutal war of attrition grinds toward its 1,000th day, neither side seems eager to negotiate. President-elect Donald Trump has said he could quickly end the war, though it is unclear how or in whose favor he might tip the scales.

This backdrop appears to be driving Russia’s strategy in eastern Ukraine, according to Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews, Scotland. Trump could try to force an end to the war by halting the supply of weapons to Ukraine, he said.

“If Trump cuts aid to Ukraine and a cease-fire leads to a frozen conflict, Russia wants to secure as much territory as it can now,” O’Brien said.

For Ukraine, the key to any cease-fire would be guarantees from the West that it won't allow Russia to re-invade in the future. Otherwise, O'Brien said, “a cease-fire is a recipe for constant instability in Europe.”

In the war's first year, Ukraine lost huge amounts of territory — but it also achieved notable victories. It resisted a much larger adversary with superior air power to survive as an independent country, and it reclaimed some land through gutsy counteroffensives, giving the underdog — and its wealthy allies — the confidence to stay in the fight.

In the second year, which was punctuated by Ukraine's devastating loss of Bakhmut and its failed counteroffensive, the armies essentially fought to a standstill along a 1,000 kilometer (620 mile) front line. Toward the end of that year, the U.S. Congress delayed the approval of a $61 billion package of aid for weapons, and economic and humanitarian assistance.

With Ukraine's ammunition dwindling, its outlook deteriorated significantly as the war’s third year began. In February 2024, the town of Avdiivka fell after months of airstrikes by Russia, which used highly destructive Soviet-era bombs retrofitted with navigation systems.

The fall of Avdiivka created a major breach in Ukraine’s defenses. When Russia later mounted an assault on the northeastern city of Kharkiv, Ukrainian troops were stretched further.

A bright spot for Ukraine came in August, when it launched a surprise incursion into Russia. It took — and still holds — hundreds of square kilometers in the Kursk region. While this could be an important chip in any cease-fire negotiations, it hasn't stopped Russian forces from taking more land in Ukraine's east.

“The Russians have paid a very high price to keep advancing, but they’re willing to pay that price in lives to gain a few more meters of territory each day,” said Justin Crump, head of the British strategic advisory firm Sibylline.

Tens of thousands of soldiers from both countries have been killed since the start of the war in 2022, according to estimates, and the U.N. says at least 11,700 Ukrainian civilians have been killed.

While the amount of land Russia has gained in 2024 — about 2,455 square kilometers (948 square miles)— is equal to less than 1% of Ukraine’s pre-war territory, it is having a psychological impact.

With Ukraine in retreat, “we’ve now returned to a period reminiscent of the (war's) first months,” said Mykola Bielieskov, an analyst at CBA Initiatives Center in Kyiv. “This strengthens Russia’s position — not so much militarily, but in terms of morale.”

To keep its war machine going, Russia — like Ukraine — has turned to allies for help.

Iran supplies Russia with drones and possibly missiles, and North Korea has sent ammunition — and even troops, who have been deployed to Russia's Kursk region.

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed this year that 700,000 of his troops are fighting in Ukraine. Analysts say Putin would need a much larger force to accelerate Russia’s advance, but that he is unlikely to mobilize more troops because it could stoke internal discontent.

Ukraine’s foothold in Kursk is another complicating factor for Putin, and it could be used as a bargaining chip in any future cease-fire negotiations.

Captain Yevhen Karas, a Ukrainian commander in Kursk, said the fighting inside Russia is highly dynamic, but he believes it will prove effective in diverting Russia's attention and resources.

“Even a creeping, retreating front exhausts the enemy significantly,” Karas said.

Ukraine has asked the West for longer range missiles and its blessing to fire at air bases deep inside Russia. But its allies have so far resisted, wary of escalating tensions with a nuclear-armed Russia.

The U.S. has provided more than $64 billion in military aid to Ukraine since the war began 1,000 days ago. Soldiers worry about what would happen without sustained American support.

“Bravery, heroism, and spirit alone are not enough,” said a Ukrainian soldier in the eastern Donetsk region who spoke on condition of anonymity, in line with military rules.

The soldier estimated that where he is stationed Russian infantry outnumber Ukrainian troops 10 to 1. As the war drags on and the death toll rises, it has become increasingly difficult for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to keep replacing troops.

What direction the war takes next will depend in large part on how the incoming Trump administration plays its hand.

Trump, who has touted his good relationship with President Vladimir Putin and called the Russian leader “pretty smart” for invading Ukraine, has repeatedly criticized American backing of Ukraine.

During his only campaign debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump twice refused to directly answer a question about whether he wanted Ukraine to win — raising concerns that Kyiv could be forced to accept unfavorable terms in any negotiations.

Without security guarantees from the West, Ukraine could find itself vulnerable to future Russian aggression. Analysts say a cease-fire based on the current state of the battlefield would set a dangerous precedent, implying that Europe's borders are up for grabs through military action — something that hasn’t happened since World War II.

“This would also have a lot of traction in countries like China, India, and elsewhere,” said Richard Connolly, a Russia expert at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “They could present that as a strategic defeat not only for Ukraine, but also for the West.”

As another winter of war approaches, Ukrainian soldiers say they remain resolute.

“We are standing strong, giving it our all, and we won’t surrender,” said a battalion chief of staff in the southern region of Zaporizhzhia. “The most important thing now is not to lose more land.”

Associated Press journalist Volodymyr Yurchuk contributed to this report.

FILE - Ukrainian servicemen prepare towarda Wong fire towards Russian positions at the frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, August 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)

FILE - A priest reads a prayer for a fallen Ukrainian solfer fIhor Kusochek during the funeral ceremony in Bobrovytsia, Chernihiv region, Ukraine, on Oct. 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)

FILE - Former President Donald Trump meets with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Trump Tower, Friday, Sept. 27, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, File)

FILE - Smoke rises over the Kyiv skyline after a Russian attack, Monday, July 8, 2024. (AP Photo/ Evgeniy Maloletka, File)

FILE - NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, left, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speak to journalists during a news conference in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Oct. 3, 2024. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)

FILE - Ukrainian soldiers fire toward Russian positions at the front line in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Monday, June 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)

FILE - Rescuers, volunteers and medical workers clean up the rubble and search for victims after a Russian missile hit the country's main children's hospital Okhmadit, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, July 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File)

FILE - A boy holds on to the barrel of a tank, part of a display of destroyed Russian military equipment, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Sunday, March 31, 2024. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda, File)

FILE - A Ukrainian soldier walks near Klishchyivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Monday, March 18, 2024. (Iryna Rybakova via AP, File)

FILE - A Ukrainian police officer takes cover in front of a burning building that was hit in a Russian airstrike in Avdiivka, Ukraine, Friday, March 17, 2023. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)

FILE - Smoke rises from a building in Bakhmut, the site of the heaviest battles with the Russian troops in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, April 26, 2023. (AP Photo/Libkos, File)

FILE - A Ukrainian assault unit commander passes by a dead Russian soldier on the front line near Andriivka, Ukraine, Saturday, Sept. 16, 2023. (AP Photo/Alex Babenko, File)

FILE - US President Joe Biden, left, participates in a wreath laying ceremony with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the memorial wall outside of St. Michael's Golden-Domed Cathedral during an unannounced visit, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, Feb. 20, 2023. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

FILE - A destroyed Russian tank, covered in snow, stands in the yard of a private house in the town of Sviatohirsk, Ukraine, Sunday, Feb. 12, 2023. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)

FILE - Ukrainian forces shoot toward Russian positions at the front line in Kharkiv region, Ukraine, on Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)

FILE - Destroyed houses are photographed in Irpin, on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, April 30, 2022. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti, File)

FILE - A resident looks for belongings in an apartment building destroyed during fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces in Borodyanka, Ukraine, Tuesday, April 5, 2022. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda, File)

FILE - Funeral workers carry a coffin with an unidentified civilian body, who died on the territory of the Bucha community during the Russian occupation period in February-March 2022, during a funeral in Bucha, near Kyiv, Ukraine, on Friday, Sept. 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti, File)

FILE - A woman walks amid destroyed Russian tanks in Bucha, in the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, Sunday, April 3, 2022. (AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd, File)

FILE - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks during an interview with The Associated Press in his office in Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, April 9, 2022. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)

FILE - Ukrainian emergency employees and volunteers carry an injured pregnant woman from a maternity hospital damaged by shelling in Mariupol, Ukraine, Wednesday, March 9, 2022. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)

FILE - A Ukrainian serviceman holds a child crossing the Irpin river on an improvised path under a bridge, that was destroyed by Ukrainian troops designed to slow any Russian military advance, while assisting people fleeing the town of Irpin, Ukraine, on March 5, 2022. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda, File)

FILE - An explosion is seen in an apartment building after Russian's army tank fires in Mariupol, Ukraine, Friday, March 11, 2022. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Moviegoers were not exactly feeling the Christmas spirit this weekend, or at least not based on their attendance at “Red One” showings.

The big budget, star-driven action comedy with Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans sold $34.1 million in tickets in its first weekend in theaters, according to studio estimates Sunday. It easily topped a box office populated mostly by holdovers.

For traditional studios, a $34.1 million debut against a $200 million-plus production budget would be a clear indication of a flop. Some even peg the budget closer to $250 million. But “Red One” is an Amazon MGM Studios release with the luxury of playing the long game rather than relying solely on global box office where Johnson tentpoles often overperform. The film may have a life on Prime Video for years to come.

“Red One,” in which Johnson plays Santa’s bodyguard, was originally built to go straight-to-streaming. It was greenlit prior to Amazon's acquisition of MGM. One interpretation of its lifecycle is that the theatrical earnings are not only just a bonus, but an additive gesture toward struggling theaters looking for a consistent stream of new films.

“Amazon has 250 million plus worldwide subscribers to the platform. It’s similar to the way Netflix, I think, looks at stuff for their platform,” said Kevin Wilson, head of distribution for Amazon MGM Studios. “There’s a there’s a massive value for a movie like this in terms of how many eyeballs you’re going to get.”

The first major studio holiday release since 2018, “Red One” opened on 4,032 screens, including IMAX and other large formats, on an otherwise quiet weekend for major releases.

“We’re really happy with the results," Wilson said. “I think when you look at the theatrical marketplace that's sometimes unforgiving, especially for original films, this is a good result for us.”

Since 2020, only seven films that weren't sequels or based on another piece of intellectual property have opened over $30 million (including “Oppenheimer” and “Nope.”)

Warner Bros. is handling the overseas release, where it has made an estimated $50 million in two weekends from 75 territories and 14,783 screens.

Still, it’s certainly not a theatrical hit in North America. Even “Joker: Folie à Deux” made slightly more in its first weekend. “Red One,” directed by Jake Kasdan and produced by Johnson’s Seven Bucks, was roundly rejected by critics, with a dismal 33% Rotten Tomatoes score. Jake Coyle, in his review for The Associated Press, wrote that it “feels like an unwanted high-priced Christmas present.”

Audiences were kinder than they were to “Joker 2,” giving it an A- CinemaScore, suggesting, perhaps, that the idea of it becoming a perennial holiday favorite is not so off-base.

“Red One” is also overperforming in the middle of the country, Wilson said, and perhaps will have a nice holdover over Thanksgiving as a different option to the behemoths on the way.

Sony's “Venom: The Last Dance” added $7.4 million this weekend's box office to take second place, bringing its domestic total to $127.6 million. Globally, its total stands at $436.1 million.

Lionsgate's “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever” landed in third with $5.4 million. That much more modestly budgeted Christmas movie has already nearly doubled its $10 million production budget in two weeks. Fourth place went to A24’s Hugh Grant horror “Heretic,” with $5.2 million, bumping its total gross to $20.4 million.

Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s “The Wild Robot” rounded out the top five in its eighth weekend in theaters with an additional $4.3 million. The animated film surpassed $300 million worldwide.

This weekend is a bit of a stopover before the Thanksgiving tentpoles arrive. Next week, “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” face off in theaters with “Moana 2”, which also stars Johnson, sailing in the Wednesday before the holiday.

“Gladiator II” also got a bit of a head start internationally, where it opened in 63 markets this weekend to gross $87 million. That's a record for filmmaker Ridley Scott and for an R-rated international release from Paramount. It opens in the U.S. and Canada on Nov. 22.

Final domestic figures will be released Monday. Estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to Comscore:

1. “Red One,” $34.1 million.

2. “Venom: The Last Dance,” $7.4 million.

3. “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever,” $5.4 million.

4. “Heretic,” $5.2 million.

5. “The Wild Robot,” $4.3 million.

6. “Smile 2,” $3 million.

7. “Conclave,” $2.9 million.

8. “Hello, Love, Again,” $2.3 million.

9. “A Real Pain,” $2.3 million.

10. “Anora,” $1.8 million.

This image released by Prime shows Kristofer Hivju, left, and Dwayne Johnson in a scene from "Red One." (Frank Masi/Prime via AP)

This image released by Prime shows Lucy Liu in a scene from "Red One." (Frank Masi/Prime via AP)

This image released by Prime shows a scene from "Red One." (Frank Masi/Prime via AP)

This image released by Prime shows Dwayne Johnson, left, and Chris Evans in a scene from "Red One." (Frank Masi/Prime via AP)