An influx of outsiders and money turns Montana Republican, culminating in a Senate triumph

BILLINGS, Mont. (AP) — Democrats' crushing loss in Montana's nationally important U.S. Senate race settled a fierce political debate over whether a surge of newcomers in the past decade favored Republicans — and if one of the new arrivals could even take high office.

Voters answered both questions with an emphatic “yes” with Tim Sheehy's defeat of three-term Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, helping deliver a GOP Senate majority and laying bare a drastic cultural shift in a state that long prided itself on electing home-grown candidates based on personal qualifications, not party affiliation.

It’s the first time in almost a century that one party totally dominates in Montana. Corporations and mining barons known as the Copper Kings once had a corrupt chokehold on the state’s politics, and an aversion to outsiders that arose from those times has faded, replaced by a partisan fervor that Republicans capitalized on during the election.

Tester, a moderate lawmaker and third-generation grain farmer from humble Big Sandy, Montana, lost to wealthy aerospace entrepreneur Sheehy, a staunch supporter of President-elect Donald Trump who arrived in Montana 10 years ago and bought a house in the ritzy resort community of Big Sky.

“The political culture in Montana has changed fundamentally over the past 10 to 15 years,” said University of Montana history professor Jeff Wiltse. “The us vs. them, Montanans vs. outsiders mentality that has a long history in Montana has significantly weakened.”

The state's old instinct for choosing its own, regardless of party, gave way to larger trends that began more than a decade ago and accelerated during the pandemic.

Job opportunities in mining, logging and railroad work — once core Democratic constituencies — dried up. Newcomers, many drawn by the state's natural social distancing, came in droves — with almost 52,000 new arrivals since 2020. That's almost as many as the entire prior decade, according to U.S. Census data. As the population changed, national issues such as immigration and gender identity came to dominate political attention, distracting from local issues.

The 2024 Senate race brought a record-setting flood of outside money on both sides — more than $315 million, much of it from shadowy groups with wealthy donors. That effectively erased Montana’s efforts over more than a century to limit corporate cash in politics.

Sheehy's win came after the party ran the table in recent Montana elections where voters installed other wealthy Republicans including Gov. Greg Gianforte, U.S. Sen. Steve Daines and U.S. Rep.-elect Troy Downing.

Daines is the only one of the group originally from Montana — once a virtual requirement for gaining high office in the state.

The contrast between Montana's old and new politics was on vivid display on election night. Tester's party was a sedate event at the Best Western Inn in Great Falls — rooms for $142 a night — where the lawmaker mingled with a few dozen supporters and sipped on apple-flavored whiskey in a plastic cup.

Sheehy’s more boisterous affair was in Bozeman — the epicenter of Montana’s new wealth — at an upscale hotel where a standard room costs $395. Long before his victory was announced, carts bearing Champagne were rolled in as the candidate remained sequestered in a secure balcony area most of the night with select supporters.

Sheehy, a former U.S. Navy SEAL from Minnesota, moved to Montana after leaving the military and, along with his brother, founded Bridger Aerospace, an aerial firefighting company that depends on government contracts. Sheehy also bought a ranch in the Little Belt Mountains, and during the campaign cast himself as the modern equivalent of an early western settler seeking opportunity.

Tester received 22,000 more votes on Nov. 5 than in his last election — a gain that exceeded his margin of victory in previous wins. Yet for every additional Tester voter, Sheehy gained several more. The result was a resounding eight-point win for the Republican, removing Democrats from the last statewide office they still held in Montana.

For Republicans, it completed their domination of states stretching from the Northern Plains to the Rocky Mountains.

“We have North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Utah — we’re all kind of red now,” said Montana Republican Party Chairman Don Kaltschmidt.

Democrats as recently as 2007 held a majority of Senate seats in the Northern Plains and almost every statewide office in Montana.

Daines — who led GOP efforts to retake the Senate as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee — pointed out during Sheehy's election party that Republicans would control both Montana Senate seats for the first time in more than a century.

Tester and other Democrats bemoan the wealth that's transformed the state. It's most conspicuous in areas like Big Sky and Kalispell, where multimillion-dollar homes occupy the surrounding mountainsides while throngs of service workers struggle to find housing.

It's not quite the same as the Copper Kings — who at their peak controlled elected officials from both major parties — but Democrats see parallels.

“What do they say — history doesn’t repeat itself but it rhymes,” said Monica Tranel, the defeated Democratic candidate in a western Montana House district. “It is very evocative of what happened in the early 1900s. It’s very much a time of change and turmoil and who has a voice.”

Montana in 2022 gained a second House seat due to population growth over the prior decade, giving Democrats a chance to regain clout. After a narrow loss that year to former Trump Interior Sec. Ryan Zinke, Tranel ran again this year and lost.

Even as she turned to history to explain Montana's contemporary political dynamic, Tranel considered the future. She acknowledged that Democrats have fallen out of step with a conservative electorate more attuned to party labels.

“The label itself is what they are reacting to,” she said. “Do we need a different party at this point?”

Republican officials embraced wealthy newcomers.

Steve Kelly, 66, who calls himself a “conservative refugee,” moved to northwestern Montana from Nevada at the height of the pandemic. He spent most of his 30-year career in law enforcement in Reno, but said he tired of the city as it grew and became more liberal — “San Francisco East,” he called it.

In 2020, Kelly and his wife bought a house outside Kalispell on a few acres so they could have horses. He got involved with the local Republican party and this fall won a seat in the state Legislature on an anti-illegal immigration platform.

“It seems to be different here. Most of the people we have met have also been conservative refugees, getting away from other cities,” he said.

Driving the growth are transplants from western states dominated by Democrats, especially California, where more than 85,000 Montana residents originated, or about 7.5% of the population, Census data shows. Almost half of Montana residents were born out of state.

Worker wages in Montana have been stagnant for decades, said Megan Lawson with the independent research group Headwaters Economics in Bozeman. Income from stocks, real estate and other investments has risen sharply, reflecting the changing — and wealthier — demographic.

“Certainly a large share of it is coming from folks who are moving into this state,” Lawson said. “When you put all this together it helps to explain the story of the political shift."

Associated Press reporter Michael Schneider in Orlando, Florida, contributed to this report.

FILE - Republican Montana Senate candidate Tim Sheehy, right, waves to supporters with his wife, Carmen Sheehy, during an election night watch party, Nov. 6, 2024, in Bozeman, Mont. (AP Photo/Tommy Martino, File)

FILE - Republican Montana Senate candidate Tim Sheehy speaks during an election night watch party, Nov. 6, 2024, in Bozeman, Mont. (AP Photo/Tommy Martino, File)

FILE - Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester concedes the Montana Senate race to Republican Tim Sheehy in Great Falls, Mont., Nov. 6, 2024. (Thom Bridge/Independent Record via AP, File)

FILE - Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., left, receives a hug from supporter Brianne Laurin during an election night watch party, Nov. 5, 2024, in Great Falls, Mont. (AP Photo/Mike Clark, File)

FILE - Supporters cheer at an election night watch party for Republican Montana Senate candidate Tim Sheehy, Nov. 6, 2024, in Bozeman, Mont. (AP Photo/Tommy Martino, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump launched a blitz of picks for his Cabinet, but he took his time before settling on billionaire investor Scott Bessent as his treasury secretary nominee.

The Republican not only wanted someone who jibes with him, but an official who can execute his economic vision and look straight out of central casting while doing so. With his Yale University education and pedigree trading for Soros Fund Management before establishing his own funds, Bessent will be tasked with a delicate balancing act.

Trump expects him to help reset the global trade order, enable trillions of dollars in tax cuts, ensure inflation stays in check, manage a ballooning national debt and still keep the financial markets confident.

“Scott will support my Policies that will drive U.S. Competitiveness, and stop unfair Trade imbalances, work to create an Economy that places Growth at the forefront, especially through our coming World Energy Dominance,” Trump said in a statement.

But for all the confidence, Trump was cautious in picking the 62-year-old, a sign that he understood the stakes after winning a presidential election largely shaped by inflation hitting a four-decade peak in 2022. He felt comfortable making faster decisions on Fox News host Pete Hegseth for defense secretary, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio for secretary of state and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for health and human services secretary.

His choice of Bessent went against the opinion of billionaire Elon Musk, who is co-leading Trump's advisory panel known as the “Department of Government Efficiency” initiative. The head of Tesla and SpaceX posted on his social media site X before Trump's selection that Bessent would be “a business-as-usual choice.”

The pick also showed the internal tensions of a candidate who won by appealing to blue-collar voters but who depends on an administration staffed by those, who like Trump, enjoy a life of extreme wealth.

Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden, D-Ore., was unimpressed by Bessent.

“Donald Trump pretends to be an economic populist, but it wouldn’t be a Trump Treasury Department without a rich political donor running the show," Wyden said in a statement rushed out immediately after the announcement Friday evening. “When it comes to the economy, the government under Trump is of, by, and for the ultra-wealthy.”

Bessent caught Trump's attention during the campaign with his ideas for 3% growth, a reduced budget deficit equal to 3% of gross domestic product and 3 million additional barrels a day of oil production. Larry Kudlow, the TV host and a director of the White House National Economic Council during Trump’s initial term, supported him. But critics in Trump's orbit said Bessent was weak on tariffs.

Another onetime contender, Howard Lutnick, the billionaire CEO of the investment firm Cantor Fitzgerald, was more pro-tariffs but less reassuring to some business leaders. Trump picked him to head the Commerce Department and take the lead on trade issues.

Trump also looked at other candidates, including former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh, Marc Rowan, the chief executive of Apollo Global Management, and Sen. Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn.

Trump's decision on his treasury chief is tied in part to most Republican voters’ biggest motivation for returning him to the White House: the state of the U.S. economy and the pressure from high prices.

According to AP VoteCast, an early November survey of about 120,000 voters nationwide, about 3 in 10 voters said they wanted total upheaval in how the country is run. Bessent has been deeply critical of President Joe Biden's economic policies, saying in remarks at the conservative Manhattan Institute that he was “alarmed” by the size of government spending and deficits and that Biden had embraced a “central planning” mindset that he thought belonged on “the scrap heap of history.”

Biden, for his part, chose Janet Yellen, the former Federal Reserve chair, to be his treasury secretary, relying on her credibility as an economist as his administration successfully pushed for $1.9 trillion in pandemic aid in 2021. But inflation jumped as the United States recovered from pandemic shutdowns, driven by supply chain challenges, global conflict and — according to Biden administration critics — an excessive amount of pandemic aid.

Government officials and economists are uncertain about what Trump would prioritize. The Republican campaigned on jacking up tariffs against China and other trade partners. But people in his economic orbit privately insist that what he cares about are fair terms in which other countries such as China don't disadvantage the United States by subsidizing industries, manipulating currencies and suppressing their own workers' wages.

The president-elect wants to extend and expand his 2017 tax cuts, many of which are set to expire after 2025. He's also proposed an array of tax cuts, such as no taxes on tips or overtime pay or Social Security benefits, that would create possible deficit increases.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, an independent fiscal watchdog, estimated that Trump could possibly add between $1.7 trillion to $15.6 trillion to projected deficits over 10 years, a sign of the uncertainty regarding his economic plans.

The economist Olivier Blanchard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, this week laid out the contradictions of “Trumponomics.” Deficit-funded tax cuts and tariff hikes could be inflationary, yet Trump won November's election in large part because of voter frustration with inflation. There’s also his promise of deportations of unauthorized immigrants that could lower employment, though it’s not clear what Trump will do once in office.

“The U.S. should be thinking about reducing the deficit, quite apart from Trump,” Blanchard said in a webcast. “Trump is probably going to make it worse.”

Trump’s treasury secretary might ultimately face the additional responsibility of trying to pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell to do as Trump wants, since the inflationary pressures outlined by Blanchard likely mean the Fed would try to slow growth to keep inflation from overheating, likely upsetting Trump.

“The risk of a conflict between the Trump administration and the Fed is very high,” Blanchard said in a webcast.

FILE - Sen. Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn., talks during a press conference, Jan. 25, 2024, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib, File)

FILE - Howard Lutnick speaks at a campaign rally, Oct. 27, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

FILE - Investor Scott Bessent speaks on the economy in Asheville, N.C., Aug. 14, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Kelley, File)