Avocados, tequila and other iconic Mexican products are jeopardized by Trump's tariff threats

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Avocados, tequila and other iconic Mexican products are jeopardized by Trump's tariff threats

2024-11-29 00:29 Last Updated At：00:42

URUAPAN, Mexico (AP) — Mexicans are worried that threats by Donald Trump to impose 25% tariffs could affect a wide range of iconic Mexican products and threaten entire regional economies.

In western Mexico, no crop supplies an income for so many small growers as avocados. But avocado growers, pickers and packers worry that U.S. consumers, faced with 25% higher prices, may just skip the guacamole.

“I think that when there is an increase in the price for any product, demand declines,” said avocado grower Enrique Espinoza. Orchards like his are the economic lifeblood in the western Mexico state of Michoacan. “It would be a tragedy if they closed down (the border) on us,” he said.

Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration — when he said he would impose tariffs — couldn't come at a worse time: It's around when Mexico starts shipping crates of the green fruit north for Super Bowl Sunday, the annual peak of consumption.

José Luis Arroyo Sandoval, a manager at an avocado packing house in Michoacan, says the economy would be affected.

“Work for us could decrease because it won't be quite so attractive to export," Arroyo said, “because avocados would get expensive, and avocados are already expensive.”

It may not just be Mexican producers who are affected; U.S. consumers may also be howling.

Mexican business leader Gina Diez Barroso told a news conference Tuesday that one U.S. agriculture official told her he had never had as many complaints as when the U.S. government halted import inspections on Mexican avocados in 2022.

“Never in his life had he had so much chaos in his office, because they halted Mexican avocados,” Diez Barroso said.

Espinoza agrees that consumers are likely to share the pain.

“The gringos need avocados, it is a good product, and I don't think they are going to stop consuming it,” he said.

Rather, the reverse effect has him worried; if Mexico retaliates with its own tariffs, as President Claudia Sheinbaum has suggested, Mexicans will face not just a drop in income, but high prices for U.S. products like corn, which is a main supply of feed for animals in Mexico.

“There are more poor people here, so in some ways it is going to hit us,” Espinoza said. “The United States can pay 25% more for Mexican products, very few of us have enough money to pay 25% more for what we import from the United States.”

It’s not just the guacamole; Mexican tequila producers have seen a bonanza in the U.S. market. In 2023, the U.S. imported $4.6 billion worth of tequila and $108 million worth of mezcal from Mexico.

That has raised cautious concern among tequila producers, including farmers who grow agave on some of the driest, marginal soils that couldn’t support many other crops.

“We are analyzing the statements by the authorities and their reactions, and in the coming days we will establish a position,” the National Tequila Industry Chamber said in a statement.

And industry representatives say a drop in the consumption of tequila — America’s third-most popular spirit, behind vodka and pre-mixed cocktails — could affect U.S. bars, restaurants and clubs.

“At the end of the day, tariffs on spirits products from our neighbors to the north and south are going to hurt U.S. consumers and lead to job losses across the U.S. hospitality industry just as these businesses continue their long recovery from the pandemic,” the Distilled Spirits Council of the U.S. said in a statement.

The tariffs would probably plunge Mexico into an immediate recession. Mexican financial group Banco Base estimated in a report that for every 1% that Mexican exports increase in price, their volume falls by 1.33%

Supposing that Americans might absorb half the impact of the tariffs and just pay higher prices for Mexican goods, they still might reduce their consumption by 12%, Banco Base estimated.

“This would be reflected in a 4.4% drop in gross domestic product,” the bank wrote, adding “the decline would not just occur in 2025, but would get more serious the longer the tariffs last.”

And the tariffs could affect some products that aren’t thought of as particularly Mexican at all.

Mexico’s Economy Secretary, Marcelo Ebrard, said Wednesday that 88% percent of all North American pickup trucks come from Mexico, though it was unclear if he meant just parts of the trucks or their final assembly.

Ebrard claimed that 25% tariffs would mean U.S. consumers might have to pay $3,000 more per pickup truck.

“It is shooting yourself in the foot," Ebrard said.

Follow AP’s coverage of Latin America and the Caribbean at https://apnews.com/hub/latin-america

Israel launches first airstrike on Lebanon since ceasefire after saying Hezbollah violated the truce

2024-11-29 00:38 Last Updated At：00:41

BEIRUT (AP) — The Israeli military on Thursday said its warplanes fired on southern Lebanon after detecting Hezbollah activity at a rocket storage facility, the first Israeli airstrike a day after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took hold.

There was no immediate word on casualties from Israel's aerial attack, which came hours after the Israeli military said it fired on people trying to return to certain areas in southern Lebanon. Israel said they were violating the ceasefire agreement, without providing details. Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency said two people were wounded.

The back-to-back incidents stirred unease about the agreement, brokered by the United States and France, which includes an initial two-month ceasefire in which Hezbollah militants are to withdraw north of the Litani River and Israeli forces are to return to their side of the border. The buffer zone would be patrolled by Lebanese troops and U.N. peacekeepers.

On Thursday, the second day of a ceasefire after more than a year of bloody conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanon's state news agency reported that Israeli fire targeted civilians in Markaba, close to the border, without providing further details. Israel said it fired artillery in three other locations near the border. There were no immediate reports of casualties.

An Associated Press reporter in northern Israel near the border heard Israeli drones buzzing overhead and the sound of artillery strikes from the Lebanese side.

The Israeli military said in a statement that “several suspects were identified arriving with vehicles to a number of areas in southern Lebanon, breaching the conditions of the ceasefire.” It said troops “opened fire toward them” and would “actively enforce violations of the ceasefire agreement.”

Israeli officials have said forces will be withdrawn gradually as it ensures that the agreement is being enforced. Israel has warned people not to return to areas where troops are deployed, and says it reserves the right to strike Hezbollah if it violates the terms of the truce.

A Lebanese military official said Lebanese troops would gradually deploy in the south as Israeli troops withdraw. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief media.

The ceasefire agreement announced late Tuesday ended 14 months of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah that began a day after Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023 attack out of Gaza, when the Lebanese militant group began firing rockets, drones and missiles in solidarity.

Israel retaliated with airstrikes, and the conflict steadily intensified for nearly a year before boiling over into all-out war in mid-September. The war in Gaza is still raging with no end in sight.

More than 3,760 people were killed by Israeli fire in Lebanon during the conflict, many of them civilians, according to Lebanese health officials. The fighting killed more than 70 people in Israel — over half of them civilians — as well as dozens of Israeli soldiers fighting in southern Lebanon.

Some 1.2 million people were displaced in Lebanon, and thousands began streaming back to their homes on Wednesday despite warnings from the Lebanese military and the Israeli army to stay out of certain areas. Some 50,000 people were displaced on the Israeli side, but few have returned and the communities near the northern border are still largely deserted.

In Menara, an Israeli community on the border with views into Lebanon, around three quarters of homes are damaged, some with collapsed roofs and burnt-out interiors. A few residents could be seen gathering their belongings on Thursday before leaving again.

Frankel reported from northern Israel. Associated Press writer Natalie Melzer in Nahariya, Israel contributed.

Follow AP’s war coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war

Avocados, tequila and other iconic Mexican products are jeopardized by Trump's tariff threats

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Avocados, tequila and other iconic Mexican products are jeopardized by Trump's tariff threats

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