Battered by war and divisions, Lebanon faces a long list of challenges after ceasefire deal

BEIRUT (AP) — Hours after a U.S.-brokered ceasefire to end the war between Israel and Hezbollah went into effect, Lebanon woke up to the sound of celebratory gunfire instead of Israeli airstrikes and drones buzzing overhead.

It was a rare moment of respite for Lebanon, as bombs stopped falling after a year of war. Thousands of displaced people joyfully drove back to their towns and villages in southern and eastern Lebanon.

But the realization of what lies ahead quickly sank in. Town after town in the south and east as well as parts of Beirut have been destroyed, entire border villages leveled to the ground, and thousands of buildings damaged. The World Bank estimates losses amounting to some $8.5 billion.

For the tiny and broken Mediterranean country, which has dealt with compounded calamities for over half a decade, the ceasefire deal has brought more questions than answers.

Among them, who will foot the bill for rebuilding? Will Hezbollah fully remove its fighters and arsenals from the south, relocating north of the Litani River — and how will the Lebanese army ensure that it does so? And will Israel ultimately accept the militants being pushed back, battered but not destroyed?

Meanwhile, Lebanon’s political paralysis between groups allied and opposed to Hezbollah has only worsened during the war — raising the possibility of instability that could rattle the ceasefire. Anger has grown among some over that they see as the Iran-backed group’s decision to provoke another disastrous war with Israel.

During the 60-day first phase of the ceasefire deal, based on Security Council Resolution 1701, Hezbollah and Israeli forces are to withdraw from south Lebanon, and the Lebanese military is to step in.

The Lebanese troops are to ensure that Hezbollah dismantles its facilities and military positions and that it doesn’t try to rebuild. That’s a major point of tension, potentially putting the army in a dangerous confrontation with the more powerful militant group.

The army, largely funded by the United States and other Western governments, is a rare point of unity in Lebanon’s tense sectarian power-balancing political system. But it's always tried to avoid friction with Hezbollah, which is backed by a large constituency among Lebanon's Shiite Muslims.

Hassan Fadlallah, a Hezbollah lawmaker, told reporters Thursday that the group will cooperate with the army to implement the ceasefire. But he also said the military doesn’t have the capability to defend Lebanon against Israel — a role Hezbollah has long claimed. He said the group would continue in that role.

“Can anyone say if Israel attacks, we watch?” Fadlallah said. “When Israel attacks our country, we will fight and resist. This is our right.”

Mike Azar, a Lebanese commentator, said the army is “in an impossible position.”

“To suggest that it can disarm or dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure is, frankly, absurd,” he said in an online post.

A Lebanese military official told The Associated Press that troops’ deployment will be gradual into areas of the south, including those from which Israeli troops withdraw. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of not being cleared to speak to the media.

The U.S. and France will also be involved in a monitoring mechanism to make sure Resolution 1701 is implemented.

Its viability is really being put to the test — “if there really is going to be that commitment” by all sides, said Salman Shaikh, who served as political adviser to the U.N. special envoy for Lebanon during the 2006 war, when the resolution was passed. He now runs The Shaikh Group, a mediation and conflict resolution organization.

Critics of the deal fear the pressure is far greater on Lebanon, and Israel has more space to attack Hezbollah — which it has vowed to do if it believes Hezbollah isn't abiding by its terms.

With U.S. support, Israel has given itself “almost total freedom to determine when it needs or wants to attack Lebanon again for whatever reason,” said Matt Duss, executive vice president of The Center for International Policy, a Washington-based think tank.

Lebanon since late 2019 has been mired in a crippling financial crisis that pushed millions into poverty, destroyed its banking system, and limited the country to just a few hours of state electricity daily.

The Lebanese military has suffered as well, with troops quitting or working second jobs to pay the bills. Yet, the aim of the agreement is for Lebanon to recruit more and deploy an additional 10,000 troops south of the Litani River. Without significant funding, this would be impossible — especially with the huge rebuilding costs Lebanon now faces.

The international community in a donor conference in Paris last month pledged $1 billion dollars for Lebanon, including $800 million for humanitarian assistance and $200 million to support the army. But aid groups say none of that funding has materialized yet.

Mercy Corps says Lebanon’s gross domestic product shrunk by 6.4% — some $1.15 billion — just in the last two months of the war. The organization is scrambling to secure housing and services for displaced people ahead of the winter.

“The worst civilian impacts could still be ahead,” Laila Al Amine, Mercy Corps' Lebanon country director, said in a statement.

A looming question is who will foot the bill. Iran has offered to help, but it's cash-strapped and under Western sanctions. Oil-rich Gulf Arab states, who helped rebuild after the 2006 war, are weary of Lebanon’s political class and not inclined to step in.

Even before the war, Hezbollah and its arsenal were a point of contention in Lebanon. Its allies say Hezbollah’s militants are crucial in protecting Lebanon, while critics say its weaponry violates state sovereignty and is used to pressure political opponents. They have long demanded Hezbollah be disarmed.

Senior parliamentarian Alain Aoun said Lebanon has a long list of urgent matters to address, including electing a president after over two years of vacuum, securing reconstruction funding and resolving a host of neglected economic issues.

“There are a number of challenges awaiting us,” Aoun told the AP.

Hezbollah's opponents were also angered over its decision to unilaterally start firing rockets into northern Israel on Oct. 8, 2023. The group said it was acting in solidarity with its ally Hamas in the Gaza Strip and vowed not to stop until a ceasefire there was reached. Critics say it dragged Lebanon into war and brought Israel’s destructive bombardment.

Even some of its allies expressed frustration.

Lawmaker Gebran Bassil, who heads a party that for years was Hezbollah’s main Christian ally in government, said in a video posted on X that Hezbollah “should be at the service of the state,” not the other way around.

Hezbollah's top ally Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who spearheaded negotiation efforts, has long pushed for Hezbollah to decouple its campaign against Israel from the war in Gaza. Now he is calling for parliament to vote for a president in January in order to ease Lebanon’s political gridlock — a move that could put Hezbollah's political power to the test.

This is where international funding and political support would also be crucial, says Shaikh.

The international community, he said, needs “to help the Lebanese sort out their issues, which still persist and which are not exclusively just to do with the Israeli actions against them.”

A South Korean U.N peacekeeper patrol drive past destroyed buildings in Chehabiyeh village, southern Lebanon, Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024 following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah that went into effect on Wednesday. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

French special envoy to Lebanon Jean-Yves Le Drian, left, meets with Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

Displaced residents hug as they stand in front of the rubble of their destroyed house in Baalbek, eastern Lebanon, Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

UNIFIL peacekeepers secure the area in Khardali, southern Lebanon, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah on Wednesday, Nov. 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari)

A woman collects the remains of her destroyed house after she returned to Chehabiyeh village, southern Lebanon, Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024 following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah that went into effect on Wednesday.(AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

NEW YORK (AP) — It's show time.

After weeks of pushing early deals, retailers in the United States and some other countries are promising bigger discounts on Black Friday, the sales event that still reigns as the unofficial kickoff of the holiday shopping season even if it's lost some luster.

Department stores, shopping malls and merchants — big and small — see the day after Thanksgiving as a way to energize shoppers and to get them into physical stores at a time when many gift-seekers do the bulk of their browsing and buying online.

Enough traditionalists must still be around, because Black Friday remains the biggest day of the year for retail foot traffic in the U.S., according to retail technology company Sensormatic Solutions.

“Black Friday is still an incredibly important day for retailers,” Grant Gustafson, head of retail consulting and analytics at Sensormatic, said. “It’s important for them to be able to get shoppers into their store to show them that experience of what it’s like to browse and touch and feel items. It also can be a bellwether for retailers on what to expect for the rest of the holiday season.”

In the U.S., analysts envision a solid holiday shopping season, though perhaps not as robust as last year’s, with many shoppers under financial pressure and cautious with their discretionary spending despite the easing of inflation.

Retailers will be even more under the gun to get shoppers in to buy early and in bulk since there are five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year.

Mall of America, in Bloomington, Minnesota, hopes to surpass the 12,000 shoppers who arrived last year within the first hour of the giant shopping center's 7 a.m. opening. This year, the mall is giving the first 200 people in line at the center's north entrance a $25 gift card.

“People come to get the deals, but more importantly, they come for the excitement, the energy, the traditions surrounding Black Friday,” Jill Renslow, Mall of America's chief business development and marketing officer, said.

Target is offering an exclusive book devoted to Taylor Swift's Eras Tour and a bonus edition of her “The Tortured Poets Department: The Anthology” album that only will be available in stores on Black Friday before customers can buy them online starting Saturday.

Best Buy has introduced an extended-release version of the doorbuster, the limited-time daily discounts that for years were all the rage — and sometimes the spark for actual brawls. The nation’s largest consumer electronics chain has released doorbuster deals every Friday since Nov. 8 and plans to continue the weekly promotion through Dec. 20.

“(Stores) are very hungry for Black Friday to do well,” Marshal Cohen, chief retail advisor at market research firm Circana, said. “They recognize that they’re not going to clobber and win big growth in online because the pie has gotten so competitive. They have to find a way to win in the stores.”

Impulse purchases and self-gifting are a potential area for big sales growth, and business isn't going to increase without them, Cohen said. Shoppers are three times more likely to buy on impulse at a physical store than online, according to Circana research.

The National Retail Federation predicted that shoppers would increase their spending in November and December by between 2.5% and 3.5% over the same period a year ago. During the 2023 holiday shopping season, spending increased 3.9% over 2022.

So far this holiday season, online sales have beaten expectations, according to Adobe Digital Insights, a division of software company Adobe. U.S. consumers spent  $77.4 billion online from Nov. 1 to Nov. 24, 9.6%  more than during the same period last year. Adobe predicted an 8.4% increase for the full season.

Despite the early sales, better bargains are coming with Black Friday, according to Adobe. Analysts consider the five-day Black Friday weekend, which includes Cyber Monday, a key barometer of shoppers’ willingness to spend for the rest of the season.

Vivek Pandya, the lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, said shoppers are paying more attention to discounts than last year, and their focus on bargain-hunting will drive what sells and when.

For example, Thanksgiving Day is the best time to shop online to get the deepest discount on sporting goods, toys, furniture and appliances, according to Adobe's analysis. But Black Friday is the best time to buy TVs online. People shopping for televisions earlier in the season found discounts that averaged 10.8%, while waiting until this Friday is expected to yield 24% discounts, Adobe Digital Insights said.

Cyber Monday, however, is expected to be the best time to buy clothing and gadgets like phones and computers online. Electronics discounts peaked at 10.9% off the suggested manufacturer's price between Nov. 1 and Nov. 24 but are expected to hit 30% off on Cyber Monday, Adobe said.

Across the board, Black Friday weekend discounts should peak at 30% on Cyber Monday and then go down to around 15%, according to Adobe’s research.

People walk by sale signs on the shopping street in Seoul, South Korea, Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024.(AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)

A shopper passes a store advertising a Black Friday Sale on Regent Street in London, Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)

People window shop in Bryant Park's Winter Village, Tuesday, Nov. 26, 2024, New York. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

A shopper looks at handbags at Macy's department store on Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Anne D'Innocenzio)

FILE - Shoppers and others walk down a crowded sidewalk on Black Friday in the Soho neighborhood of New York, Nov. 24, 2023. (AP Photo/Peter K. Afriyie, File)

Items on sale for $5 are displayed at a Five Below store on Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Anne D'Innocenzio)

Items on sale for Black Friday are displayed at Macy's department store on Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Anne D'Innocenzio)

Shoppers pass a Christmas tree at the Bergdorf Goodman store on Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Anne D'Innocenzio)

A sign promoting Black Friday deals sits on table with a display of mirrorless cameras in a Best Buy store Thursday, Nov. 21, 2024, in south Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)