Provisional statistics of retail sales for October 2024
The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (November 29).
The value of total retail sales in October 2024, provisionally estimated at $32.9 billion, decreased by 2.9% compared with the same month in 2023. The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in September 2024 decreased by 6.9% compared with a year earlier. For the first 10 months of 2024 taken together, it was provisionally estimated that the value of total retail sales decreased by 7.1% compared with the same period in 2023.
Of the total retail sales value in October 2024, online sales accounted for 12.3%. The value of online retail sales in that month, provisionally estimated at $4.0 billion, increased by 8.4% compared with the same month in 2023. The revised estimate of online retail sales in September 2024 decreased by 12.1% compared with a year earlier. For the first 10 months of 2024 taken together, it was provisionally estimated that the value of online retail sales decreased by 0.5% compared with the same period in 2023.
After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the provisional estimate of the volume of total retail sales in October 2024 decreased by 4.9% compared with a year earlier. The revised estimate of the volume of total retail sales in September 2024 decreased by 8.7% compared with a year earlier. For the first 10 months of 2024 taken together, the provisional estimate of the total retail sales decreased by 8.8% in volume compared with the same period in 2023.
Analysed by broad type of retail outlet in descending order of the provisional estimate of the value of sales and comparing October 2024 with October 2023, the value of sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts decreased by 11.1%. This was followed by sales of commodities in supermarkets (-0.4% in value); wearing apparel (-9.8%); commodities in department stores (-9.2%); motor vehicles and parts (-27.5%); fuels (-9.6%); books, newspapers, stationery and gifts (-21.0%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (-6.9%); Chinese drugs and herbs (-7.0%); furniture and fixtures (-18.0%); and optical shops (-10.2%).
On the other hand, the value of sales of electrical goods and other consumer durable goods not elsewhere classified increased by 17.1% in October 2024 over a year earlier. This was followed by sales of other consumer goods not elsewhere classified (+1.0% in value); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+0.3%); and medicines and cosmetics (+3.9%).
Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the provisional estimate of the value of total retail sales increased by 0.7% in the three months ending October 2024 compared with the preceding three-month period, while the provisional estimate of the volume of total retail sales decreased by 0.4%.
Commentary
A government spokesman said that the year-on-year decline of total retail sales value narrowed further in October. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the value of total retail sales continued to increase month-to-month.
Looking ahead, the spokesman said that the Mainland’s recent introduction of various measures to boost the economy would help support consumption sentiment and economic activities in Hong Kong. The Central Government's various measures benefitting Hong Kong, including the resumption of the multiple-entry Individual Visit Scheme for permanent residents of Shenzhen and its extension to non-permanent residents of Shenzhen with residence permits, together with the SAR Government's various initiatives to boost market sentiment, as well as increasing employment earnings, would be conducive to spending by both residents and visitors in the domestic market, though the change in their consumption patterns will continue to pose a constraint.
Further information
Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for September 2024 as well as the provisional figures for October 2024. The provisional figures on the value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet as well as the corresponding year-on-year changes for the first 10 months of 2024 taken together are also shown.
Table 2 presents the revised figures on value of online retail sales for September 2024 as well as the provisional figures for October 2024. The provisional figures on year-on-year changes for the first 10 months of 2024 taken together are also shown.
Table 3 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for September 2024 as well as the provisional figures for October 2024. The provisional figures on year-on-year changes for the first 10 months of 2024 taken together are also shown.
Table 4 shows the movements of the value and volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
The classification of retail establishments follows the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC) Version 2.0, which is used in various economic surveys for classifying economic units into different industry classes.
These retail sales statistics measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments and are primarily intended for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. Data on retail sales are collected from local retail establishments through the Monthly Survey of Retail Sales (MRS). Local retail establishments with and without physical shops are covered in MRS and their sales, both through conventional shops and online channels, are included in the retail sales statistics.
The retail sales statistics cover consumer spending on goods but not on services (such as those on housing, catering, medical care and health services, transport and communication, financial services, education and entertainment) which account for over 50% of the overall consumer spending. Moreover, they include spending on goods in Hong Kong by visitors but exclude spending outside Hong Kong by Hong Kong residents. Hence they should not be regarded as indicators for measuring overall consumer spending.
Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the data series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product published at quarterly intervals. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether locally or abroad. Please refer to the C&SD publication "Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure Component" for more details.
More detailed statistics are given in the "Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales". Users can browse and download this publication at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/EIndexbySubject.html?pcode=B1080003&scode=530).
Users who have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics Section of C&SD (Tel: 3903 7400; email: mrs@censtatd.gov.hk).
