Nuclear bunker sales increase, despite expert warnings they aren’t going to provide protection

When Bernard Jones Jr. and his wife, Doris, built their dream home, they didn’t hold back. A grotto swimming pool with a waterfall for hot summer days. A home theater for cozy winter nights. A fruit orchard to harvest in fall. And a vast underground bunker in case disaster strikes.

“The world’s not becoming a safer place,” he said. “We wanted to be prepared.”

Under a nondescript metal hatch near the private basketball court, there’s a hidden staircase that leads down into rooms with beds for about 25 people, bathrooms and two kitchens, all backed by a self-sufficient energy source.

With water, electricity, clean air and food, they felt ready for any disaster, even a nuclear blast, at their bucolic home in California’s Inland Empire.

“If there was a nuclear strike, would you rather go into the living room or go into a bunker? If you had one, you’d go there too,” said Jones, who said he reluctantly sold the home two years ago.

Global security leaders are warning nuclear threats are growing as weapons spending surged to $91.4 billion last year. At the same time, private bunker sales are on the rise globally, from small metal boxes to crawl inside of to extravagant underground mansions.

Critics warn these bunkers create a false perception that a nuclear war is survivable. They argue that people planning to live through an atomic blast aren’t focusing on the real and current dangers posed by nuclear threats, and the critical need to stop the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Meanwhile, government disaster experts say bunkers aren’t necessary. A Federal Emergency Management Agency 100-page guidance on responding to a nuclear detonation focuses on having the public get inside and stay inside, ideally in a basement and away from outside walls for at least a day. Those existing spaces can provide protection from radioactive fallout, says FEMA.

But increasingly, buyers say bunkers offer a sense of security. The market for U.S. bomb and fallout shelters is forecast to grow from $137 million last year to $175 million by 2030, according to a market research report from BlueWeave Consulting. The report says major growth factors include “the rising threat of nuclear or terrorist attacks or civil unrest.”

“People are uneasy and they want a safe place to put their family. And they have this attitude that it’s better to have it and not need it then to need it and not have it,” said Atlas Survival Shelters CEO Ron Hubbard, amid showers of sparks and the loud buzz of welding at his bunker factory, which he says is the world’s largest, in Sulphur Springs, Texas.

Hubbard said COVID lockdowns, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war have driven sales.

On Nov. 21, in the hours after Russia’s first-ever use of an experimental, hypersonic ballistic missile to attack Ukraine, Hubbard said his phone rang nonstop.

Four callers ended up buying bunkers in one day, he said, and more ended up ordering doors and other parts for shelters they were already building.

Hubbard said his bunkers are built for all disasters.

“They’re good for anything from a tornado to a hurricane to nuclear fallout, to a pandemic to even a volcano erupting,” he said, sweeping his arms toward a massive warehouse where more than 50 different bunkers were under construction.

A loaded shotgun at arm’s length and metal mesh window shields to block Molotov cocktails nearby, Hubbard said he started his company after building his own bunker about 10 years ago. He says callers ask about prices — $20,000 to multimillions, averaging $500,000 — and installations — they can go just about anywhere. He said most days he sells at least one bunker.

Under Hubbard’s doomsday scenario, global tensions could lead to World War III, a situation he is prepared to live through.

“The good news about nuclear warfare,” he said, “if there ever was any, that it’s very survivable if you’re not killed in the initial blast.”

He’s not wrong, say U.S. government disaster preparedness experts.

“Look, this fallout exposure is entirely preventable because it is something that happens after the detonation,” said Brooke Buddemeier a radiation safety specialist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, where the U.S. government designs nuclear weapons. Buddemeier and his colleagues are tasked with evaluating what could happen after an attack and how best to survive. “There’s going to be a fairly obvious nuclear explosion event, a large cloud. So just getting inside, away from where those particles fall, can keep you and your family safe.”

Buddemeier and others in the U.S. government are trying to get Americans — who decades ago hid under desks during nuclear attack drills — educated about how to respond.

After a deadly and deafening blast, a bright flash and a mushroom cloud, it will take about 15 minutes for the radioactive fallout to arrive for those a mile or more away from ground zero, said Michael Dillon, a scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

“It’s going to literally be sand falling on your head, and you’re going to want to get out of that situation. You want to go to your most robust building,” he said. In their models, they estimate people may need to stay inside for a day or two before evacuating.

The government’s efforts to educate the public were reinvigorated after a false alarm missile alert in Hawaii in 2018 caused widespread panic.

The emergency alert, which was sent to cellphones statewide just before 8:10 a.m., said: “BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT INBOUND TO HAWAII. SEEK IMMEDIATE SHELTER. THIS IS NOT A DRILL.”

For the next 40 minutes there were traffic jams, workers running into and out of buildings, families huddling in their bathrooms, students gathering in gyms, drivers blocking tunnels, all in an attempt to seek shelter, without any clear idea of what “seek immediate shelter” actually meant.

Today the federal government offers a guide to prepare citizens for a nuclear attack that advises people to find a basement or the center of a large building and stay there, possibly for a few days, until they get word about where to go next.

“Gently brush your pet’s coat to remove any fallout particles” it says, adding that the 15-minute delay between bomb and fallout allows “enough time for you to be able to prevent significant radiation exposure.”

Jeffrey Schlegelmilch, who directs the FEMA-backed National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University, said “the scenarios of a nuclear detonation are not all or nothing.”

If a small number of weapons detonate rather than all-out war, he said, sheltering inside a large building to avoid the fallout could save lives.

Nonproliferation advocates bristle at the bunkers, shelters or any suggestion that a nuclear war is survivable.

“Bunkers are, in fact, not a tool to survive a nuclear war, but a tool to allow a population to psychologically endure the possibility of a nuclear war,” said Alicia Sanders-Zakre at the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons.

Sanders-Zakre called radiation the “uniquely horrific aspect of nuclear weapons,” and noted that even surviving the fallout doesn’t prevent long-lasting, intergenerational health crises. “Ultimately, the only solution to protect populations from nuclear war is to eliminate nuclear weapons.”

Researcher Sam Lair at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies says U.S. leaders stopped talking about bunkers decades ago.

“The political costs incurred by causing people to think about shelters again is not worth it to leaders because it forces people to think about what they would do after nuclear war,” he said. “That’s something that very, very few people want to think about. This makes people feel vulnerable.”

Lair said building bunkers seems futile, even if they work in the short term.

“Even if a nuclear exchange is perhaps more survivable than many people think, I think the aftermath will be uglier than many people think as well,” he said. “The fundamental wrenching that it would do to our way of life would be profound.”

That’s been a serious concern of Massachusetts Congressman James McGovern for almost 50 years.

“If we ever get to a point where there’s all out nuclear war, underground bunkers aren’t going to protect people,” he said. “Instead, we ought to be investing our resources and our energy trying to talk about a nuclear weapons freeze, initially.”

Next, he said, “we should work for the day when we get rid of all nuclear weapons.”

Year after year he introduces legislation pushing for nonproliferation, but looking out his office window at the Capitol, he said he’s disappointed by the lack of debate over what will be a $1 trillion expenditure to build and modernize the U.S. arsenal.

“The stakes, if a nuclear weapon is ever used, is that millions and millions and millions of people will die. It really is shocking that we have world leaders who talk casually about utilizing nuclear weapons. I mean, it would be catastrophic, not just for those that are involved in an exchange of nuclear weapons, but for the entire world.”

McGovern pushed back against FEMA’s efforts to prepare the public for a nuclear attack by advising people to take shelter.

“What a stupid thing to say that we all just need to know where to hide and where to avoid the most impacts of nuclear radiation. I mean, really, that’s chilling when you hear people try to rationalize nuclear war that way,” he said.

Nuclear war was far from a couple's mind when they went house-hunting in Southern California a few years ago. They wanted a home to settle down and raise their family, and they needed extra garage space. They spotted an online ad for a home with at least eight parking spots. On the basketball court, there was a metal hatch. Beneath it was a bunker.

This was Jones' former home, which Jones said he put up for sale for family reasons.

The husband, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of concerns about his family's privacy, went ahead and bought Jones' home, bunker and all. They aren’t particularly worried about nuclear war, and haven’t spent a night in the bunker, but they have stored food and medical supplies down there.

“We have told some of our friends, if something goes crazy and gets bad, get over here as fast as possible,” the husband said. “It does provide a sense of security.”

—-

Mendoza reported from Sulphur Springs, Texas, and Livermore, California.

—-

The Associated Press receives support for nuclear security coverage from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and Outrider Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

—-

Additional AP coverage of the nuclear landscape: https://apnews.com/projects/the-new-nuclear-landscape/

Ron Hubbard, owner of Atlas Survival Shelters, wears tennis shoes with a message during an interview at his company's office in Sulphur Springs, Texas, on Aug. 27, 2024, (AP Photo/LM Otero)

Ron Hubbard, owner of Atlas Survival Shelters, pauses during an interview at his company's facilities in Sulphur Springs, Texas, on Aug. 27, 2024, (AP Photo/LM Otero)

Ron Hubbard, owner of Atlas Survival Shelters, stands in a bunker his company is building for a client on Aug. 27, 2024, in Sulphur Springs, Texas. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

Ron Hubbard, owner of Atlas Survival Shelters, walks out the door of a bunker his company is building for a client during a tour of his operations in Sulphur Springs, Texas, on Aug. 27, 2024, (AP Photo/LM Otero)

Chris Pettis helps installs a safe in a bunker under construction for a client at Atlas Survival Shelters in Sulphur Springs, Texas, on Aug. 27, 2024, (AP Photo/LM Otero)

Ron Hubbard, owner of Atlas Survival Shelters, talks about the bunker his company is building for a client during a tour of his operations in Sulphur Springs, Texas, on Aug. 27, 2024, (AP Photo/LM Otero)

Ron Hubbard, owner of Atlas Survival Shelters, walks over to concrete bunkers during a tour of his operations in Sulphur Springs, Texas, on Aug. 27, 2024, (AP Photo/LM Otero)

Ron Hubbard, owner of Atlas Survival Shelters, talks about concrete bunkers during a tour of his operations in Sulphur Springs, Texas, Tuesday, Aug. 27, 2024, (AP Photo/LM Otero)

Ron Hubbard, owner of Atlas Survival Shelters, handles a shotgun during an interview at his company's office in Sulphur Springs, Texas, Tuesday, Aug. 27, 2024, (AP Photo/LM Otero)

A bunker door and stairway sit ready for installation as Ron Hubbard, owner of Atlas Survival Shelters, gives a tour of his company's operations in Sulphur Springs, Texas, on Aug. 27, 2024, (AP Photo/LM Otero)

Anton Kytaiev, right, works on a social media post for Ron Hubbard, owner of Atlas Survival Shelters, at the company's office in Sulphur Springs, Texas, Tuesday, Aug. 27, 2024, (AP Photo/LM Otero)

Michael Dillon, a researcher at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, sits for an interview at the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center in Livermore, Calif., on Aug. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Terry Chea)

Brooke Buddemeier, a radiation safety specialist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, stands in front of a screen showing the impact of a nuclear detonation on various buildings, in Livermore, Calif., on Aug. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Terry Chea)

HOLD FOR USE WITH STORY-Brooke Buddemeier, a radiation safety specialist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, sits for an interview at the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center in Livermore, Calif., Aug. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Terry Chea)

Brooke Buddemeier, a radiation safety specialist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, holds a nuclear detonation response guide at the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center in Livermore, Calif., Thursday, Aug. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Terry Chea)

Brooke Buddemeier, a radiation safety specialist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, stands in front of a screen showing the impact of nuclear detonation, in Livermore, Calif., Thursday, Aug. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Terry Chea)

The owner, who asked not to be identified because of concerns about his privacy, turns off the lights in his underground shelter in an undisclosed Southern California city, on Dec. 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

The owner, who asked not to be identified because of concerns about his privacy, walks up the steps of his underground shelter in an undisclosed Southern California city, on Dec. 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

The owner, who asked not to be identified because of concerns about his privacy, closes the heavy metal door of his underground shelter in an undisclosed Southern California city, Monday, Dec. 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

Two toilets are seen inside an underground shelter in an undisclosed Southern California city, on Dec. 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

A bedroom is shown inside an underground shelter in an undisclosed Southern California city, Monday, Dec. 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

The owner, who asked not to be identified because of privacy concerns, walks out of his underground shelter in an undisclosed Southern California city, on Dec. 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

Bunk beds are seen inside an underground shelter in an undisclosed Southern California city, on Dec. 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

The owner, who asked not to be identified because of privacy concerns, shows water tangs in his underground shelter in an undisclosed Southern California city, Monday, Dec. 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

A dining area inside an underground shelter is seen in an undisclosed Southern California city, Monday, Dec. 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

The owner, who asked not to be identified because of concerns about his privacy, turns on the lights in his underground shelter in an undisclosed Southern California city, on Dec. 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

WASHINGTON (AP) — The unemployment rate is healthy and the stock market is up, but Democrats are feeling more pessimistic about the U.S. economy after Donald Trump's election victory, according to a new poll.

Republicans, meanwhile, are still dour about the current state of the economy but hopeful that growth will be stronger next year when Trump returns to the White House as president.

The latest survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research suggests that some Americans are evaluating the economy more by who holds political power than on what the underlying trends suggest. This was a persistent challenge for President Joe Biden that Trump appears to be inheriting — and it raises the possibility that Trump, too, might struggle to translate his economic policies into political wins.

About 7 in 10 U.S. adults rate the country’s economic state as very or somewhat poor, up slightly from about 6 in 10 in October. Self-identified Democrats are primarily driving the recent negativity. About 6 in 10 Democrats described the U.S. economy as “good” in October. With Republicans on the verge of controlling the executive and legislative branches, only about half of Democrats say that now.

“Next year, if Trump gets his tariffs, prices are going to go up and things are going to be more costly,” said Karen Claussen, 77, who lives in suburban Columbus, Ohio, and voted for Democrat Kamala Harris in November's election. “I don’t see any hope right now. No, I’m very worried."

The long-standing pessimism about the economy reveals a disconnect between the traditional measures used to judge performance and how people are feeling.

The unemployment rate is a healthy 4.2% as hiring continues to be solid. Inflation has fallen from its 2022 peak, yet progress has stalled in recent months. The stock market was already up under Biden and has further increased since the election in anticipation of Trump’s promised tax cuts and efforts to curb regulations.

Perhaps because the poll was conducted with Biden still in office, just 16% of Republicans say the nation’s economy is good right now. But they see positive change on the horizon: About 7 in 10 Republicans say 2025 will be a better year than 2024 for the U.S. economy.

In the November election, AP VoteCast indicated that voters favored Trump in large part because of dissatisfaction over inflation, a global phenomenon coming out of the pandemic that raised prices for groceries, gasoline, cars and housing.

The new AP-NORC poll shows about one-third of Americans say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about their ability to afford groceries over the next few months. About 3 in 10 are highly worried about being able to afford holiday gifts, gas or electricity.

“Right now, it’s Christmas time, and we’re struggling to make sure our son has Christmas this year,” said Jeremie Spratley, 39, from Westland, Michigan.

Spratley is on disability, and he said his family is getting less in food aid at a time when affordability has become a problem. He voted for Trump even though he thinks the former president cares more about the wealthy than about people like him.

"I know that he’s not looking out for the poor people like me, but even if it trickles down, that will be a benefit,” Spratley said.

People in households earning $50,000 or less are also more likely to be concerned about affording their basic needs and year-end expenses, compared with those with higher incomes. About half of those with a household income below $50,000 are worried about being able to pay for groceries, and about 4 in 10 say the same about buying gas, electricity or holiday presents.

Among Republicans who already hold a negative view of the economy, about 7 in 10 expect next year to be better. Only about 4 in 10 independents who see the economy as weak say it will improve. And about 1 in 10 Democrats who currently think the economy is weak say it will advance next year.

It’s common for some Americans to shift their views about the economy after a new president takes office.

For example, Democrats’ view of the economy dramatically improved between December 2020 and February 2021, after Biden took office. Only 15% of Democrats at the end of 2020 rated the economy as “good,” but that jumped to 41% by February. Over the same period, Republicans’ views dropped from about 7 in 10 saying the economy was in good shape to 35%. The topline view stayed the same, and independents did not shift their views significantly.

Beyond a series of bold and brash statements, it’s unclear which policies Trump would prioritize in hopes of helping growth.

He has threatened universal tariffs against partners such as Canada and Mexico, as well as geopolitical rivals such as China, unless those nations conduct their policies on trade, immigration and other matters to his liking. He would also like to renew and expand parts of his 2017 tax cuts that are set to expire, but that could incur a higher level of debt that could hinder growth.

But for voters like Benjamin Lebert, 41, what matters is that Trump marks a change from the current administration. The resident of Roanoke, Virginia, voted this year for Trump, after not doing so previously in 2016 or 2020.

“With Trump in office, maybe new things will happen to America that weren't happening under Joe Biden,” Lebert said.

The poll of 1,251 adults was conducted Dec. 5-9, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points

President Joe Biden speaks about his administrations economic playbook and the future of the American economy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, Tuesday, Dec. 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

FILE - Signs marking the intersection of Broad and Walls streets appear near the New York Stock Exchange, Oct. 1, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Peter Morgan, File)

FILE - A hiring sign is displayed at a hair salon in Vernon Hills, Ill., March 28, 2023. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)