Aviation experts say Russia's air defense fire likely caused Azerbaijan plane crash as nation mourns

Aviation experts said Thursday that Russian air defense fire was likely responsible for the Azerbaijani plane crash the day before that killed 38 people and left all 29 survivors injured.

Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 was en route from Azerbaijan's capital of Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when it was diverted for reasons still unclear and crashed while making an attempt to land in Aktau in Kazakhstan after flying east across the Caspian Sea.

The plane went down about 3 kilometers (2 miles) from Aktau. Cellphone footage circulating online appeared to show the aircraft making a steep descent before crashing into the ground and exploding in a fireball.

Other footage showed a part of its fuselage ripped away from the wings and the rest of the aircraft lying upside down on the grass.

Azerbaijan mourned the crash victims with national flags at half-staff across on Thursday. Traffic stopped at noon, and sirens sounded from ships and trains as it observed a nationwide moment of silence.

Speaking at a news conference Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that it was too soon to speculate on the reasons behind the crash, but said that the weather had forced the plane to change from its planned course.

“The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” he said.

Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said that preliminary information indicated the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird strike led to an emergency on board.

Authorities in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia were tight-lipped about a possible cause of the crash but a lawmaker in Azerbaijan blamed Moscow. Rasim Musabekov told the Azerbaijani news agency Turan that the plane was fired on while in the skies over Grozny and urged Russia to offer an official apology.

“Those who did this must face criminal charges,” Musabekov was quoted by Turan as saying, adding that compensations to the victims should also be paid. “If it doesn't happen, relations will be affected.”

As the official crash investigation started, some experts pointed out that holes seen in the plane’s tail section could indicate that it could have come under fire from Russian air defense systems fending off a Ukrainian drone attack.

Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, and other regions in the country’s North Caucasus. An official in Chechnya said another drone attack on the region was fended off on Wednesday, although federal authorities didn't report it.

Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s airspace and airports for risks, said that the analysis of the images of fragments of the crashed plane indicate that it was almost certainly hit by a surface-to-air missile, or SAM.

“Much more to investigate, but at high level we'd put the probability of it being a SAM attack on the aircraft at being well into the 90-99% bracket,” he said.

Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the United Kingdom, warned its clients that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system.” Osprey provides analysis for carriers still flying into Russia after Western airlines halted their flights during the war.

Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said that the company had issued more than 200 alerts regarding drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.

“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson posted online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided.”

Yan Matveyev, an independent Russian military expert, noted that images of the crashed plane's tail reveal the damage compatible with shrapnel from a small surface-to-air missiles, such as the Pantsyr-S1 air defense system.

“It looks like the tail section of the plane was damaged by some missile fragments,” he said.

Matveyev added that it remains unclear why the pilots decided to fly hundreds of miles east across the Caspian Sea instead of trying to land at a closer airport in Russia after the plane was hit.

“Perhaps some of the plane's systems kept working for some time and the crew believed that they could make it and land normally,” Matveyev said, adding that the crew could also have faced restrictions on landing at another venue in Russia.

Caliber, an Azerbaijani news website with good government connections, also claimed that the airliner was fired upon by a Russian Pantsyr-S air defense system as it was approaching Grozny. It questioned why Russian authorities failed to close the airport despite the apparent drone raid in the area. Khamzat Kadyrov, head of Chechnya's Security Council, said that air defenses downed drones attacking the region on Wednesday.

Caliber also wondered why Russian authorities didn't allow the plane to make an emergency landing in Grozny or other Russian airports nearby after it was hit.

Asked about the claims that the plane had been fired upon by air defense assets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that “it would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict.”

Kazakhstan’s parliamentary speaker, Maulen Ashimbayev, also warned against rushing to conclusions based on pictures of the plane’s fragments, describing the allegations of air defense fire as unfounded and unethical.

According to Kazakh officials, those aboard the plane included 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakhs and three Kyrgyzstan nationals. Russia’s Emergencies Ministry on Thursday flew nine Russian survivors to Moscow for treatment.

Associated Press writers Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Aida Sultanova in London contributed to this report.

In this photo provided by Azerbaijan's Presidential Press Office, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev holds a meeting in Baku, Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024 following an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 plane crash. (Azerbaijani Presidential Press Office via AP)

St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov lays a bunch of flowers at the Consulate of Azerbaijan in the memory of victims of the Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 that crashed near the Kazakhstan's airport of Aktau, in St. Petersburg, Russia, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky)

Flowers and portraits are placed at the Consulate of Azerbaijan in the memory of victims of the Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 that crashed near the Kazakhstan's airport of Aktau, in St. Petersburg, Russia, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky)

In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)

Azerbaijan's national flag at half-mast in the memory of victims of the Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 that crashed near the Kazakhstan's airport of Aktau, is seen in the center of Baku, Azerbaijan, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Aziz Karimov)

In this image taken from video released by the Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service, rescuers transport wounded passengers from a medical plane after the Azerbaijani Airline crashed, near the Kazakhstani city of Aktau, upon their arrival at the Zhukovsky airport outside Moscow, Russia, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service via AP)

In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, rescuers prepare to carry a wounded passenger near the Kazakhstani city of Aktau, Thursday, Dec. 26 , 2024, after a plane of Azerbaijani Airline crashed. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)

In this photo provided by Azerbaijan's Presidential Press Office, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, center, holds a meeting following an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 plane crash, in Baku, Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024. (Azerbaijani Presidential Press Office via AP)

In this image released by the Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service, rescuers carry a wounded passenger near the Kazakhstani city of Aktau, Thursday, Dec. 26 , 2024, after a plane of Azerbaijani Airline crashed. (Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service via AP)

In this image released by the Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service, rescuers prepare to carry a wounded passenger near the Kazakhstani city of Aktau, Thursday, Dec. 26 , 2024, after a plane of Azerbaijani Airline crashed. (Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service via AP)

In this photo released by Kazakhstan's Emergency Ministry Press Service, rescuers work at the wreckage of Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lays on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (Kazakhstan's Emergency Ministry Press Service via AP)

In this photo released by Kazakhstan's Emergency Ministry Press Service, rescuers work at the wreckage of Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (Kazakhstan's Emergency Ministry Press Service via AP)

The wreckage of Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lays on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Azamat Sarsenbayev)

In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, the wreckage of Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)

In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, the wreckage of Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)

HOUSTON (AP) — The Houston Texans certainly didn’t look like a playoff team in a rout by the Baltimore Ravens on Wednesday.

With just one game left until the playoffs begin, the AFC South champions know they’ll have to get much better to be competitive in the postseason.

“That’s not who we are. That’s not what we represent,” coach DeMeco Ryans said. “What we put out there on the field, that’s not Texans football. For anybody to come back and bounce back from it you’ve got to check yourself and make sure you’re playing with elite execution and elite energy.”

The 29-point loss to the Ravens was Houston’s most lopsided defeat this season. The defense gave up a season-high 251 yards rushing and the offense was shut out, with the team’s only points coming on a second-quarter safety.

Quarterback C.J. Stroud threw an interception and missed several throws in a performance he called “one of the worst games of my whole career.” He was asked how he and the team can move on from such a tough loss.

“That’s the only thing we can do,” he said. “There is nothing in life you can go … back and re-do, so it’s all about how you respond. You hit rock bottom; the only way is up. So, we still have a lot of hope. At the end of the day, we clinched our division. We still have an opportunity in the playoffs.”

The Texans (9-7) went 0 for 2 in the red zone Wednesday to lower their red zone efficiency to 50.94% this season, which ranks 26th in the NFL.

After their safety Wednesday, they had a chance to cut the lead or potentially tie the game when they had a first down at the 10-yard line. Joe Mixon ran for 7 yards on first down before the drive stalled.

He was dropped for a 1-yard loss on second down before an incompletion by Stroud brought up fourth-and-4. Stroud threw a short pass to Mixon and he was stopped at the 1-yard line to give the Ravens the ball back.

Lamar Jackson then led a 99-yard drive capped by a 9-yard touchdown pass to make it 17-2.

Not much was working in this debacle. About the only good thing that happened for the Texans on Wednesday was a 45-yard kickoff return by Dameon Pierce in the second quarter to start the drive that ended with Mixon being stopped on fourth down. The second-year player is averaging 38.1 yards per return.

The Texans managed just 58 yards rushing against the Ravens with Mixon gaining 26 yards on nine carries. Houston hasn’t reached 100 yards rushing in three straight games and four of its past five. The Texans must get their running game going to take some pressure off Stroud, who is working with a thin receiving group with Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs out for the season with knee injuries.

WR John Metchie led the team with five receptions for 48 yards as he took on a bigger role in the offense in the first game without Dell. It’s the second-most yards Metchie has had in a three-year career where he missed his entire rookie season undergoing cancer treatments.

Wednesday was the second time in three games where Mixon was held to fewer than 30 yards rushing. He started the season strong, running for at least 100 yards in six of his first eight games. But he’s struggled since then, reaching 100 yards just once in five games.

G Shaq Mason missed Wednesday’s game after injuring his knee against the Chiefs and it’s unclear if he can return for the next game. … C/G Juice Scruggs missed a fourth straight game with foot injury.

59.2 — Stroud had a 59.2 passer rating in the loss, which is tied for the third-worst rating of his career.

After playing three games in 11 days, the Texans now have an extended break before wrapping up the regular season next weekend at Tennessee. Stroud will try and use this setback to get better.

“There’s not sunny days if there is not days with rain,” he said. “It’s a rainy day but at the end of the day the sun will rise up tomorrow. We have another crack at this thing next week to keep rolling.”

AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl

Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans watches from the sideline during the second half of an NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens, Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)

Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon (28) is tackled by Baltimore Ravens cornerback Tre'Davious White (25) on a fourth down run during the first half of an NFL football game, Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024, in Houston. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud walks off the field after an NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens, Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)