No Jan. 6 disruptions are expected as Trump's win boosts Republicans' faith in elections -- for now

This Jan. 6 won't be the same.

Four years ago, then-President Donald Trump urged supporters to head to the Capitol to protest Congress' certification of Democrat Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 election.

“Will be wild!” Trump promised on Twitter a few weeks before Jan. 6, 2021. And it was.

Trump gave a vitriolic speech to thousands of people gathered at the Ellipse behind the White House, after which many marched to the Capitol and stormed the building in an attempt to stop the previously routine final step in formalizing the winner of the presidential election. Even after the rioters dispersed, eight Republicans in the Senate and 139 in the House voted against ratifying Biden's win in certain swing states, despite no evidence of problems or wrongdoing that could have affected the outcome.

This year, the only turbulence preceding the quadrennial ratification of the presidential election resulted from House Republicans fighting among themselves over who should be speaker.

“There will be no violence. There will be no attempt to mount an insurrection against the Constitution,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md. “It will be a lot more like what we’ve seen for the rest of American history.”

The last time, Trump urged his vice president, Mike Pence, who was presiding over the certification, to intervene to keep him in the White House. This time, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee against Trump, has acknowledged her loss and isn't expected to try to change long-established procedures for certifying the election. No other prominent Democrat has urged the party to contest Trump's win, either.

Congress also has since updated the law that governs the proceeding, clarifying the process in the states and specifying the vice president's role as merely ministerial.

After the 2020 election, many Republicans contended there were signs of massive voter fraud that made it impossible to confirm Biden's victory, even though there has never been any indication of widespread fraud. After Trump won this November, many of those same Republicans had no such objections, saying they trusted the accuracy of the vote count. It was a change in sentiment shared by Republicans across the country.

“As citizens, we should all be happy when it goes smoothly,” said Edward Foley, a law professor at Ohio State University. “It's always better not to have major contestation over elections, especially when there isn't a reasonable position for it.”

Still, the calm may be illusory.

Trump and Republicans had signaled that if had Harris won, they were prepared to contest her victory. Vice President-elect JD Vance, as an Ohio senator, argued that Pence should have acted to overturn Biden's election.

Vance himself is set to be in the position to preside over the next significant Jan. 6 — in 2029, when Congress will be scheduled to accept the electoral votes for the winner of the 2028 presidential election.

“The most dangerous January 6 event is not January 6, 2025. It’s January 6, 2029, and beyond,” said David Weinberg of Protect Democracy, which defends against what it terms authoritarian threats to the country. “It creates an enormous problem when only one side of the aisle stands down when it loses an election.”

The Constitution lays out some basic steps required to choose the next president, and congressional legislation has filled in the procedural blanks. After states choose their winning candidates on Election Day, electors who are pledged to vote for those candidates meet as the Electoral College and formally cast their votes for president.

Congress then tallies the votes on Jan. 6 in a joint session presided over by the vice president to formally determine who's won a majority of the Electoral College.

In 2021, Trump pushed for Pence not to read out the tallies from swing states that Biden won, thereby forcing Congress to vote to accept a list of states where Trump won the majority of the Electoral College. That ploy was something that Pence and numerous legal scholars said was an unconstitutional act.

A year later, Biden signed the bipartisan bill that updated the 1887 law governing the joint session to make clear the vice president needs to read all of the state tallies. The Electoral Count Reform Act also makes it harder to object to the congressional vote.

Still, many House Republicans remain opposed to that law.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., was a prime supporter of Trump's efforts to overturn his 2020 loss and had not ruled out trying to change the election outcome if Trump lost in November. Republicans spent the final weeks of the election contending Democrats would do the same if Trump won, citing a push by some to disqualify the former president from the ballot under the Constitution's once-obscure “insurrection clause." That effort ultimately was rebuffed by the U.S. Supreme Court.

Republicans say the size of Trump's election victory is why there is no potential unrest. He won the presidency by about 230,000 votes in the swing states and the popular vote by 1.5 percentage points after losing by about 44,000 votes in the swing states and 4.5 percentage points nationwide in 2020.

“This time, I think the win was so decisive that it just — for good or ill depending on which side you’re on — it’s stifled most of that," said Arizona Rep. Andy Biggs, a Republican who led the objections on Jan. 6, 2021, over groundless allegations of voter fraud.

Foley, author of the book “Ballot Battles” about election challenges in U.S. history, advised Congress on changes to the law governing the joint session and its certification of the presidential election. He said he hoped the 2024 election marks the end of groundless challenges to congressional certification, even though the candidate who spearheaded the last challenge won.

That's because Trump has said he won't run again and is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term. Foley noted that, in 2022, a number of Republicans tried to mimic Trump's distrust of election results and widely lost in swing states. Election denial, he said, may not be viable if not attached to Trump.

“As Trump will never be a candidate again,” Foley said, “I hope this is beyond us.”

AP Congressional Correspondent Lisa Mascaro in Washington contributed to this report.

The Associated Press receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

FILE - Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump, left, and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris shake hands before the start of an ABC News presidential debate, Sept. 10, 2024, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

FILE - Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump, left, with Republican vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, right, are pictured at an election night watch party, Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

FILE - A flag hangs between broken windows after then-President Donald Trump supporters tried to break through police barriers outside the U.S. Capitol, Jan 6, 2021. (AP Photo/John Minchillo, File)

FILE - With the White House in the background, President Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Washington, Jan. 6, 2021. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)

FILE - Insurrectionists loyal to President Donald Trump try to break through a police barrier, Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2021, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File)

FILE - Vice President Mike Pence returns to the House chamber after midnight, Jan. 7, 2021, to finish the work of the Electoral College after a mob loyal to President Donald Trump stormed the Capitol in Washington and disrupted the process. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

TORONTO (AP) — Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation Monday after nearly a decade in power, bowing to rising discontent over his leadership and growing turmoil within his government signaled by the abrupt departure of his finance minister.

Trudeau, the latest incumbent to be driven out by rising voter dissatisfaction worldwide, said it had become clear to him that he cannot "be the leader during the next elections due to internal battles.” He planned to stay on as prime minister until a new leader of the Liberal Party is chosen.

“I don’t easily back down faced with a fight, especially a very important one for our party and the country. But I do this job because the interests of Canadians and the well being of democracy" are "something that I hold dear," said Trudeau, who was initially teary-eyed at the announcement outside his official residence.

He said Parliament, which had been due to resume Jan. 27, would be suspended until March 24. The timing will allow for a Liberal Party leadership race.

All three main opposition parties have said they plan to topple the Liberal Party in a no-confidence vote when Parliament resumes, so a spring election after the Liberals pick a new leader was almost assured.

“The Liberal Party of Canada is an important institution in the history of our great country and democracy. A new prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party will carry its values and ideals into that next election,” Trudeau said. “I am excited to see that process unfold in the months ahead.”

Trudeau came to power in 2015 after 10 years of Conservative Party rule and was initially hailed for returning the country to its liberal past. But the 53-year-old scion of one of Canada’s most famous prime ministers became deeply unpopular with voters in recent years over a range of issues, including the soaring cost of food and housing, and surging immigration.

Speaking in a recorded message posted on X, opposition Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre said Canadians “desperate to turn the page on this dark chapter in our history might be relieved” that Trudeau is leaving. "But what has really changed? Every Liberal MP in power today and every potential Liberal leadership contender fighting for the top job helped Justin Trudeau break the country over the last nine years.”

Other opposition leaders added their own criticism, including Jagmeet Singh, who leads the leftist New Democratic Party.

“It doesn’t matter who the next Liberal is. They’ve let you down. They do not deserve another chance,” said Singh, who propped up Trudeau’s party for years.

The president of the Liberal party, Sachit Mehra, said in a statement that party members were “immensely grateful” to Trudeau for delivering “transformational progress” for Canadians, including $10-a-day child care, dental care and a national climate plan. Mehra said he would call a meeting this week to begin selecting a new leader.

The political upheaval comes at a difficult moment for Canada internationally. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods if the government does not stem what Trump calls a flow of migrants and drugs in the U.S. — even though far fewer of them cross into the U.S. from Canada than from Mexico, which Trump has also threatened.

Canada is a major exporter of oil and natural gas to the U.S., which also relies on its northern neighbor for steel, aluminum and automobiles.

After Trudeau's announcement, Trump, who for weeks has referred to Canada as the 51st state, did so again and incorrectly claimed on social media that the prime minister resigned because Canada relies on subsidies from the U.S. to stay afloat.

Trudeau kept publicly mum in recent weeks, despite intensifying pressure for him to step down.

“His long silence following this political drama speaks volumes about the weakness of his current position,” said Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal.

Canada’s former finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, announced her resignation from Trudeau’s Cabinet on Dec. 16, criticizing some of Trudeau’s economic priorities in the face of Trump’s threats. The move, which came shortly after the housing minister quit, stunned the country and raised questions about how much longer the increasingly unpopular Trudeau could stay in his job.

Freeland and Trudeau had disagreed about two recently announced policies: a temporary sales tax holiday on goods ranging from children’s clothes to beer, and plans to send every citizen a check for $250 Canadian ($174). Freeland, who was also deputy prime minister, said Canada could not afford “costly political gimmicks” in the face of the tariffs threat.

“Our country is facing a grave challenge,” Freeland wrote in her resignation letter. “That means keeping our fiscal powder dry today, so we have the reserves we may need for a coming tariff war.”

Trudeau had planned to run for a fourth term despite his party's displeasure. Prime ministers in Canada can stay in office as long as their government or party has the confidence of a majority in the House of Commons, but no Canadian prime minister in more than a century has won four straight terms.

Trudeau's party recently suffered upsets in special elections in two districts in Toronto and Montreal that it has held for years. And based on the latest polls, his chances for success looked slim. In the latest poll by Nanos, the Liberals trailed Conservatives 47% to 21%.

Over his long tenure, Trudeau embraced an array of causes favored by his liberal base. He spoke in favor of immigration at a time other countries were trying to tighten their borders. He championed diversity and gender equality, appointing a Cabinet that was equal parts men and women. He legalized cannabis.

His efforts to strike a balance between economic growth and environmental protection were criticized by both the right and left. He levied a tax on carbon emissions and rescued a stalled pipeline expansion project to get more of Alberta’s oil to international markets.

Fewer people died from COVID-19 in Canada than elsewhere, and his government provided massive financial support. But animosity grew among those opposed to vaccine mandates. Flags with Trudeau’s name and expletives became a common sight in rural regions.

A combination of scandal and unpopular policies damaged his prospects over time.

Trudeau’s father swept to power in 1968 and led Canada for almost 16 years, becoming a storied name in the country’s history, most notably by opening its doors wide to immigrants. Pierre Trudeau was often compared to John F. Kennedy and remains one of the few Canadian politicians who are recognized in America.

Born while his father was prime minister, the younger Trudeau became an international celebrity upon being elected. He appeared on the cover of Rolling Stone magazine under the headline “Why Can’t He Be Our President?”

Tall and trim, with movie-star looks, Justin Trudeau channeled the star power — if not quite the political heft — of his father.

He became the second-youngest prime minister in Canada’s history, and rivals said his age was a liability when he first sought office. But he won a sweeping mandate in a come-from-behind victory in 2015.

Trudeau is a former teacher, nightclub bouncer and snowboard instructor who has three children with his ex-wife, a former model and TV host.

FILE - Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is pictured through glass as he speaks with members of his caucus in Ottawa, Ontario, on Dec. 16, 2024. (Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE - Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gestures as he speaks with reporters before caucus on Parliament Hill, in Ottawa, on Nov. 24, 2021. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE - Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, centre left, takes a selfie with a person in a wheelchair during a visit to B.C. Day celebrations in Penticton, B.C., on Aug. 6, 2018. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE - Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada, speaks before signing the Paris Agreement on climate change on April 22, 2016, at U.N. headquarters. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan, File)

FILE - Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, center, his wife Sophie Gregoire Trudeau, center left, and their children Hadrien, in stroller, Ella-Grace, next to her mother, and Xavier, next to his sister, take part in the Pride Parade in downtown Vancouver, Canada, on July 31, 2016. (Jonathan Hayward/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE - Liberal leader Justin Trudeau makes his way to the stage with wife Sophie Gregoire at the Liberal party headquarters in Montreal on Oct. 20, 2015. Trudeau, the son of late Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, became Canada's new prime minister after beating Conservative Stephen Harper. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE - Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau gestures for media to leave so he can begin his first caucus meeting as leader on April 17, 2013, in Ottawa. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE - Liberal leader Justin Trudeau celebrates with his wife, Sophie Gregoire, after winning a minority government at the election night headquarters on Oct. 22, 2019, in Montreal. (Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE - A woman crosses the street in front of vehicles parked as part of the trucker protest, on Feb. 8, 2022 in Ottawa. Canadian lawmakers expressed increasing worry about protests over vaccine mandates other other COVID restrictions after the busiest border crossing between the U.S. and Canada became partially blocked. (Adrian Wyld /The Canadian Press via AP, File)

Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks with media outside Rideau Cottage, Monday, Jan. 6, 2025 in Ottawa. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press via AP)

FILE - Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, center, flips pancakes at a Stampede breakfast in Calgary, Alta., on July 7, 2013. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE - Prime Minister Justin Trudeau lifts his son Hadrien into the air following his speech at the federal Liberal national convention in Halifax on April 21, 2018. (Darren Calabrese/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE - Minister of International Trade Chrystia Freeland gives Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a hug after being sworn in during ceremonies at Rideau Hall, on Nov. 4, 2015, in Ottawa. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE - Prime Minister Justin Trudeau waves as he leaves the offices of Salesforce on Feb. 8, 2018, in San Francisco. (Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE - Prime Minister Justin Trudeau talks to reporters as he arrives at a caucus meeting on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on April 6, 2022. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE - Liberal leader and Prime Minister Elect Justin Trudeau hugs his mother Margaret Trudeau as he makes his way on stage for his acceptance speech at Liberal party headquarters in Montreal on Oct. 19, 2015, after winning the 42nd Canadian general election. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau leaves a news conference after announcing his resignation as Liberal leader outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Monday, Jan. 6, 2025. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press via AP)

Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau makes an announcement outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Monday, Jan. 6, 2025. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press via AP)

Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau makes an announcement outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Monday, Jan. 6, 2025. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press via AP)

Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau makes an announcement outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Monday, Jan. 6, 2025. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press via AP)

Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau makes an announcement outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Monday, Jan. 6, 2025. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press via AP)

Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announces his resignation as Liberal leader and prime minister outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Monday, Jan. 6, 2025. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press via AP)

Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announces his resignation as Liberal leader and prime minister outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Monday, Jan. 6, 2025. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press via AP)

Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrives to make an announcement outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Monday, Jan. 6, 2025. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press via AP)

Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announces his resignation as Liberal leader and prime minister outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Monday, Jan. 6, 2025. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press via AP)

Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau makes an announcement outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Monday, Jan. 6, 2025. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press via AP)

Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau makes an announcement outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Monday, Jan. 6, 2025. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press via AP)

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau makes an announcement outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Monday, Jan. 6, 2025. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press via AP)