Southern California is experiencing its most devastating winter fires in more than four decades. Fires don’t usually blaze at this time of year, but specific ingredients have come together to defy the calendar in a fast and deadly manner.
Start with supersized Santa Ana winds whipping flames and embers at 100 mph — much faster than normal — and cross that with the return of extreme drought. Add on weather whiplash that grew tons of plants in downpours then record high temperatures that dried them out to make easy-to-burn fuel. Then there's a plunging and unusual jet stream, and lots of power lines flapping in those powerful gusts.
Click to Gallery
The Palisades Fire ravages a neighborhood amid high winds in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
Thick heavy smoke from wildfires passes over the Hollywood sign in Los Angeles on Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel)
Fire crews begin to clear a toppled tree in the aftermath of the Palisades Fire in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
Claudio and Kathleen Boltiansky embrace in their fire-ravaged neighborhood after the Palisades Fire swept through in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
Fire-damaged vehicles are lined up at a dealership after the Eaton Fire swept through Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
A firefighter battles the Eaton Fire Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025 in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
A man walks past a fire-ravaged business after the Eaton Fire swept through Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
A firefighter battles the Palisades Fire around a burned structure in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
Experts say that's what is turning wildfires into a deadly urban conflagration.
“Tiny, mighty and fast” fires have blazed through America's west in the last couple of decades as the world warms, said University of Colorado fire scientist Jennifer Balch. She published a study in the journal Science last October that looked at 60,000 fires since 2001 and found that the fastest-growing ones have more than doubled in frequency since 2001 and caused far more destruction that slower, larger blazes.
“Fires have gotten faster,” Balch said Wednesday. “The big culprit we're suspecting is a warming climate that's making it easier to burn fuels when conditions are just right.”
Summer fires are bigger usually, but they don't burn nearly as fast. Winter fires “are much more destructive because they happen much more quickly” said U.S. Geological Survey fire scientist Jon Keeley.
AccuWeather estimated damage from the latest fires could reach $57 billion, with the private firm’s chief meteorologist, Jonathan Porter, saying “it may become the worst wildfire in modern California history based on the number of structures burned and economic loss.”
“It's really just the perfect alignment of everything in the atmosphere to give you this pattern and strong wind,” said Tim Brown, director of the Western Regional Climate Center.
Wind speed and the speed of spreading flames are clearly linked.
“The impact increases exponentially as wind speed increases,” said fire scientist Mike Flannigan of Thompson Rivers University in Canada. If firefighters can get to the flames within 10 minutes or so, its spread can be contained, but “15 minutes, it's too late and it's gone. The horse has left the barn.”
There's no sure link between Santa Ana winds — gusts from the east that come down the mountains, gain speed and hit the coast — to human-caused climate change, said Daniel Swain, climate scientist for the California Institute for Water Resources.
But a condition that led to those winds is a big plunge in the temperature of the jet stream — the river of air that moves weather systems across the globe — which helped bring cold air to the eastern two-thirds of the nation, said University of California Merced climate and fire scientist John Abatzoglou. Other scientists have preliminarily linked those jet stream plunges to climate change.
Santa Ana winds are happening later and later in the year, moving more from the drier fall to the wetter winter, Keeley said. Normally, that would reduce fire threats, but this isn't a normal time.
After two soaking winters, when atmospheric rivers dumped huge amounts of water on the region causing lots of plants to grow, a fast onset of drought dried them out, providing perfect tinder, according to Swain and Abatzoglou.
Swain says this weather whiplash is happening more often.
There is a clear link between climate change and the more frequent dry falls and winters that provide fuel for fires, Swain said.
These devastating fires couldn't happen without the dry and hot conditions, nor would they be blazing without the extreme wind speed, Abatzoglou and others said.
The human factor in this can't be ignored, said Keeley.
“I think that we need to look at it from the perspective of global changes. And climate is just one global change. And certainly one of the other important global changes is population growth. And California has been growing at a phenomenal rate in the last 20 years,” Keeley said. “You add more people and that means you add more power lines and more potential for failure to occur.”
While the ignition sources for these fires have yet to be determined, Flannigan bets they'll end up being power lines blown down by high winds. That's what started California's devastating fires in 2016 and 2017, leading to utility Pacific Gas & Electric declaring bankruptcy after facing $30 billion in lawsuits.
An analysis of 423 California wildfires that have grown to at least 15 square miles (39 square kilometers) since 1984 shows only four of those burned during the winter. About two-thirds of those larger fires sparked in June, July or August.
Federal data shows just six wildfires have burned more than 2 square miles (5 square kilometers) in any January in California since 1984. Until the Palisades and Eaton fires this year, the largest had been the Viejas Fire, which burned 17.1 square miles (44.3 square kilometers) in 2001 in the mountains east of San Diego.
“Winter wildfires should be an oxymoron,” University of Colorado's Balch said. “Well, because, you know, temperatures drop and we get precipitation. We’re supposed to get precipitation.”
Fire officials used to talk about fire seasons, said David Acuña, a battalion chief for Cal Fire: “Now we talk about fire years.”
Associated Press writers Peter Prengaman in New York; Mary Katherine Wildeman in Hartford, Connecticut; and Christopher Keller in Albuquerque, New Mexico, contributed.
The Palisades Fire ravages a neighborhood amid high winds in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
Thick heavy smoke from wildfires passes over the Hollywood sign in Los Angeles on Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel)
Fire crews begin to clear a toppled tree in the aftermath of the Palisades Fire in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
Claudio and Kathleen Boltiansky embrace in their fire-ravaged neighborhood after the Palisades Fire swept through in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
Fire-damaged vehicles are lined up at a dealership after the Eaton Fire swept through Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
A firefighter battles the Eaton Fire Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025 in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
A man walks past a fire-ravaged business after the Eaton Fire swept through Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
A firefighter battles the Palisades Fire around a burned structure in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
Major wildfires around Los Angeles raged on Thursday as firefighters struggled to put out blazes three days after they began with strong winds ripped through the mountains and foothills.
All around Los Angeles, scenes of flames were everywhere, as many areas continued to burn all but unabated. Many people were forced to go about their lives. One person rode a bike past flames, while others walked past houses that were burning.
Amid the destruction, firefighters tried to save homes — or keep others from being chewed up. Holding large hoses, in one area firefighters pumped water. In another, a firefighter worked at putting out flames in a house already largely destroyed. In many cases, the best case scenario was simply making sure that embers didn't fly in the winds and ignite more structures.
In areas where people who had been evacuated could return, what awaited them was dire. A couple, arms around each other, looked at what was left of their smoldering home. Another person stood, using their arm to cover their face, next to a home that looked like it had been bombed. A statue of a human, without a head, lay on a street, surrounded by debris from the destruction.
The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.
Water is dropped by helicopter on the burning Sunset Fire in the Hollywood Hills section of Los Angeles, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
Firefighters work from a deck as the Palisades Fire burns a beachfront property Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Malibu, Calif. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
Pedestrians help a firefighter stretch a hose as an apartment building burns, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in the Altadena section of Pasadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello)
A firefighter is framed through the window of a fire-damaged property while battling the Eaton Fire on Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Nic Coury)
A firefighter works from a deck as the Palisades Fire burns a beachfront property Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Malibu, Calif. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
The Palisades Fire burns a beach front property Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Malibu, Calif. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
Fallon Prockiw-Kline, center, gets emotional in front of her home which was damaged by the Palisades Fire, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Malibu, Calif. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
A resident hoses down hot spots in a fire-ravaged property after the Palisades Fire swept through in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Eugene Garcia)
A firefighter battles the Palisades Fire around a burned structure in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
A resident sprays their property with a garden hose as the Eaton Fire engulfs structures across the street, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
Fire crews battle the Eaton Fire Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
Fire crews battle the Eaton Fire Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
A resident is evacuated from a senior living facility as the Eaton Fire approaches Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
Residents are evacuated from a senior living facility as the Eaton Fire approaches Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
A resident is evacuated from a senior living facility as the Eaton Fire approaches Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
The Eaton Fire burns a bus stop Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
A firefighter battles the Eaton Fire Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
The Eaton Fire burns a vehicle Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
People watch as the Eaton Fire engulfs a structure Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
The Palisades Fire burns a structure in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
A statue and other structures are burned as the Palisades Fire ravages a neighborhood amid high winds in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)
Megan Mantia, left, and her boyfriend Thomas, return to Mantia's fire-damaged home after the Eaton Fire swept through, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025 in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
Fire-damaged vehicles are lined up at a dealership after the Eaton Fire swept through Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
A man walks past a fire-ravaged business after the Eaton Fire swept through Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
A resident of a senior center is evacuated as the Eaton Fire approaches Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
Residents of a senior center are evacuated as the Eaton Fire approaches Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
Residents of a senior center are evacuated as the Eaton Fire approaches Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
Residents of a senior center are evacuated as the Eaton Fire approaches Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
The Palisades Fire burns a Christmas tree inside a residence in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
The Eaton Fire destroys a structure Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
Bike riders make their way along the coast as large dark plume of smoke passes over the beach from a wildfire from Pacific Palisades, from Santa Monica, Calif., on Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel)
A lone beachgoer walks along the coast as a large dark plume of smoke passes over the beach from a wildfire from Pacific Palisades, from Santa Monica, Calif., on Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel)
Tim Murphy and his son Sean arm wrestle on the beach during sunset under a blackened sky from a wildfire in the Pacific Palisades, during the sunset in Santa Monica, Calif., Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel)
A surfer takes off on a wave in Santa Monica, Calif., during sunset under a blackened sky from the Palisades fire in the Pacific Palisades on Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel)
A person flees from an advancing wildfire in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
Jerome Krausse pushes his mother-in-law in a shopping cart as they evacuate from their home in the Pacific Palisades after a wildfire swept through their neighborhood in Santa Monica, Calif., on Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel)
People flee from the advancing Palisades Fire, by car and on foot, in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
A woman cries as the Palisades Fire advances in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
Water is dropped on the advancing Palisades Fire by helicopter in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
A firefighter tries to contain the Palisades Fire from a rooftop in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
A person tries to hose down embers from the Palisades Fire in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
Will Adams watches as flames from the Palisades Fire close in on his property in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
A firefighter jumps over a fence while fighting the Palisades Fire in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
A resident stands in front of a garage as fire crews fight the Palisades Fire nearby in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
The Palisades Fire burns a residence in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
A firefighter battles the Palisades Fire as it burns a structure in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
The Palisades Fire burns trees and homes in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
The Palisades Fire burns a property in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
A vehicle burns as the Palisades Fire advances in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
Two people ride by on motorcycles as the Palisades Fire destroys an area in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
The Palisades Fire ravages a neighborhood amid high winds in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
Water is dropped on the advancing Palisades Fire by helicopter in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
Will Adams uses a garden hose to keep flames from damaging his home as the Palisades Fire advances in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
A residence burns as the Palisades Fire advances in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
Flames rise as the Palisades Fire advances on homes in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
Will Adams watches as flames from the Palisades Fire close in on his property in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
Smoke from a wildfire is seen from the Venice Beach section of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
A lone beachgoer walks along the coast as a large dark plume of smoke passes over the beach from a wildfire from Pacific Palisades, from Santa Monica, Calif., on Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel)
A lone sunbather sits and watches a large plume of smoke from a wildfire rise over the Pacific Palisades, in Santa Monica, Calif., on Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel)
Bike riders make their way along the coast as large dark plume of smoke passes over the beach from a wildfire from Pacific Palisades, from Santa Monica, Calif., on Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel)
A person flees from an advancing wildfire in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
Jerome Krausse pushes his mother-in-law in a shopping cart as they evacuate from their home in the Pacific Palisades after a wildfire swept through their neighborhood in Santa Monica, Calif., on Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel)
People flee from the advancing Palisades Fire, by car and on foot, in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
A woman cries as the Palisades Fire advances in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
A firefighter protects a structure from the advancing Palisades Fire in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
A firefighter battles the advancing Palisades Fire in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
Firefighters stage in front of the advancing Palisades Fire in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
Firefighters battle the advancing Palisades Fire in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
