NEW YORK (AP) — Electric vehicle demand is expected to keep rising this year, but uncertainty over policy changes and tariffs is clouding the forecast.
S&P Global Mobility expects global sales of 15.1 million battery electric vehicles in 2025, which would mark a 30% jump. Battery electric vehicles are expected to make up 16.7% of the market share for light vehicles.
Tesla, BYD of China, and other manufacturers face big unknowns in 2025. Donald Trump's presidency could mean big policy shifts in tax and other incentives for both electric vehicle makers and consumers. The threat of tariffs on imports and retaliatory tariffs globally, could further complicate production and sales for electric vehicles.
“There's just a lot of uncertainty in the air,” said Stephanie Brinley, associate director of auto intelligence at S&P Global Mobility. “It's not an environment where you want to necessarily go gangbusters.”
In the U.S., consumers can currently claim a federal tax benefit of up to $7,500 for certain new electric vehicles. Carmakers also benefitted from some federal support for electric vehicle production and infrastructure. It's possible for all of that to get cut under President Trump.
Trump condemned the federal tax credit for electric vehicles while campaigning for the presidency. He called it part of a “green new scam” that would would hurt the auto industry. Still, the incoming administration is expected push for broader deregulation of industries, which could potentially help carmakers.
Some of the larger electric vehicle makers had a mixed 2024 even with benefits for consumers and manufacturers. Tesla sales slipped 1.1%, its first annual sales drop in more than a dozen years. Rivian's deliveries rose 2.9%.
Tariffs are another threat to the industry. Production takes place globally, with parts getting imported and exported throughout the process. Trump has threatened to tax imports from Mexico, Canada, China and elsewhere, which would likely result in retaliatory tariffs.
China is the largest market for electric vehicles, followed by the U.S. Within the U.S., Tesla is the dominant electric vehicle maker, with about 50% of the market share.
Automakers are in a wait-and-see position along with many other industries to see whether Trump carries out the threat of rescinding tax credits and implementing tariffs.
The broader auto industry is proceeding with caution. Overall, S&P Global Mobility expects that light vehicle production will have slid 1.6% in 2024 and will fall another 0.4% in 2025.
That's a result of automakers better matching production and demand. Overall light vehicle sales are still expected to rise 1.7% in 2025.
The ongoing transition to electric vehicles also plays a role in more tempered production. Companies like Ford and General Motors are shifting production capacity to electric vehicles in some cases instead of adding more capacity.
FILE - Tesla Cybertrucks are displayed at the AutoMobility LA Auto Show, Nov. 21, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes, File)
MAPUTO, Mozambique (AP) — Mozambique's main opposition leader returned from self-imposed exile on Thursday clutching a bible and saying he still rejects the results of a disputed election last year that has sparked more than two months of protests and a violent crackdown by security forces.
While Venancio Mondlane stepped off a plane, security forces fired tear gas at hundreds of his supporters who gathered near the main international airport to welcome him home. Mondlane arrived at Mavalane International Airport in the capital, Maputo, to applause from some airport workers and then kneeled in the arrivals hall with a bible in his left hand.
“I want to fight within this country and I will, until the very end, keep fighting for this country,” Mondlane said. “I’m not willing to accept election results if they are the same as those announced up until now.”
He had left the country in October following an election clouded by allegations of rigging against the long-ruling Frelimo party, which has been in power since Mozambique gained independence from Portugal in 1975.
More than 100 people have been killed by security forces, according to international rights groups, since Mozambique erupted in protests after Frelimo was declared the winner of the Oct. 9 election. Some local groups put the death toll at more than 200. Mondlane had called for people to protest the results.
Mondlane has said he left Mozambique fearing for his life after two senior members of his opposition party were killed in their car by unknown gunmen in a late-night shooting on a street in Maputo in the aftermath of the election. Mondlane's party called the killings political assassinations.
Police on Thursday also blocked roads leading to the airport after Mondlane said on social media earlier this week he would return to the southern African country. Tear gas drifted over the airport and surrounding roads and a helicopter hovered overhead. After arriving, Mondlane traveled by car to a public square in central Maputo, with large crowds following him.
Thousands of Mondlane's supporters were expected to gather in Maputo for his return, prompting the clampdown by security forces, which rights groups have accused of using excessive force against post-election protesters. Authorities have said the protests were violent and needed to be subdued, but rights groups say security forces have fired live bullets at peaceful protesters, and children were among those who were killed.
Mondlane accused authorities of kidnapping and killing some anti-government protesters. But he also said he was willing to enter into negotiations with Frelimo to end months of unrest, which has disrupted the country of 33 million. Mozambique has also been battling a violent insurgency by jihadists in the north.
“I’m here in flesh and blood to say that if you want to negotiate, if you want to talk to me, if you want to come to the conversation table, I’m here,” Mondlane said.
Mondlane and other opposition candidates accused Frelimo of rigging the election and international observers reported irregularities in the vote and the alteration of some results. Mozambique’s Constitutional Council upheld Frelimo’s victory last month, making its candidate, Daniel Chapo, the president-elect. He is due to be inaugurated next week to succeed President Filipe Nyusi, who has served the maximum two terms.
Mondlane was second in the official results.
The post-election unrest has spilled over to neighboring countries, with reports of thousands of Mozambicans fleeing to Malawi. South Africa closed its border with Mozambique for several days last year after vehicles were set on fire near the crossing.
The Southern African Development Community, a regional body, has said it will send a delegation to Mozambique in an attempt to find a solution to end the turmoil.
Frelimo has often been accused of rigging elections since Mozambique held its first democratic vote in 1994 following a bloody 15-year civil war Frelimo fought against rebel group Renamo, which is now an opposition party that Mondlane once belonged to before breaking away.
The street protests in several major cities since October have been the biggest threat to Frelimo's rule since the 1977-1992 civil war.
AP Africa news: https://apnews.com/hub/africa
Mozambique's opposition leader Venancio Mondlane addresses supporters from the top of a vehicle on the street in Maputo, Mozambique, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Carlos Uqueio)
Mozambique's opposition leader Venancio Mondlane speaks to journalist upon his arrival, at the Mavalane International Airport in Maputo, Mozambique, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Carlos Uqueio)
Mozambique's opposition leader Venancio Mondlane arrives at the Mavalane International Airport in Maputo, Mozambique, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Carlos Uqueio)
FILE - Independent candidate Venancio Mondlane holds up his finger after casting his vote in general elections in Maputo, Mozambique, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Carlos Equeio, File)
