WASHINGTON (AP) — Human-caused climate change increased the likelihood and intensity of the hot, dry and windy conditions that fanned the flames of the recent devastating Southern California wildfires, a scientific study found.
But the myriad of causes that go into the still smoldering fires are complex, so the level of global warming's fingerprints on weeks of burning appears relatively small compared to previous studies of killer heat waves, floods and droughts by the international team at World Weather Attribution. Tuesday's report, too rapid for peer-review yet, found global warming boosted the likelihood of high fire weather conditions in this month's fires by 35% and its intensity by 6%.
Click to Gallery
FILE - Smoke from a wildfire is seen from the Venice Beach section of Los Angeles, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)
FILE - The Eaton Fire destroys a structure, Jan. 7, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope, File)
FILE - A firefighter monitors flames caused by the Hughes Fire along Castaic Lake in Castaic, Calif., Jan. 22, 2025. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)
FILE - Trees sway in high winds as the Eaton Fire burns structures Jan. 8, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope, File)
FILE - Fire crews monitor the Palisades Fire in Mandeville Canyon, Jan. 11, 2025, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)
Once-in-a-decade super strong Santa Ana winds, a dry autumn that followed two very wet years that caused rapid growth in flammable chapparal and grass, hot weather, dry air and vulnerable houses in fire-prone areas all were factors in the fast-moving fires that destroyed thousands of homes and killed at least 29 people, study authors said. But the climate attribution team was only able to quantify issues that dealt with the fire weather index, which are the meteorological conditions that add up to fire danger.
The fire weather index — which includes measurements of past rainfall, humidity and wind speed — is where the team looked and found markers of climate change that they could quantify.
The team used observations of past weather and computer simulations that compared what happened this month to a what-if world without the 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Celsius) of human-caused climate change that Earth has had since industrial times. That allowed them to come up with a calculation for warming's contribution to the disaster. It's a method that the National Academy of Sciences says is valid. Even though these rapid studies aren't yet peer-reviewed, nearly all of them are published later in peer-reviewed journals without significant changes, said World Weather Attribution co-lead scientist Friederike Otto.
“The number (35%) doesn't sound like much” because unlike dozens of its past studies, the team looked at a small area and a complex meteorological measurement in the fire weather index that would generally mean there would be large uncertainties, said Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London. But in this case the climate change fingerprint is big enough that it stands out, she said.
Those conditions are part of what makes California attractive to 25 million residents, said study co-author John Abatzoglou, a climate and fire scientist at the University of California Merced.
Southern California has “some of the best climate, best weather on the planet — except when you get a combination of conditions that occurred here," Abatzoglou said. “You get the trifecta of dry windy and warm conditions. Those three things, in combination with dry fuels and ignitions, are the perfect recipe for fire disasters.”
Abatzoglou said it's like a bunch of switches — dryness, fuels, high temperatures, wind and ignition — that all need to be turned on “for conditions to really take off.” Think of it as switches for a light bulb to illuminate — “and so you can think about the artificial warming due to human-caused climate change making the light brighter,” added co-author Park Williams, a UCLA fire and climate scientist.
The study also found California's dry season has increased by 23 days and the lack of rain in October, November and December was more than twice as likely now than in pre-industrial times, but because of limitations on the data, researchers couldn't statistically pinpoint these to both climate change and the specific fires this month, Otto said. But she said “the rains are decreasing — that is because of human-induced climate change.”
Then add in strong winds to whip and spread flames.
Mike Flannigan, a Canadian fire scientist who wasn’t part of the research, said one key to him is the fire season extending longer and “increasing the chance a fire will start during peak Santa Ana winds.”
The research couldn’t specifically quantify how much, if any, climate change affected the Santa Ana winds.
Craig Clements, a climate scientist and director of wildfire study at San Jose State University, said the rapid study makes sense and fits with past research about other fires.
“It's hard to attribute climate change to every fire event as many do,” said Clements, who wasn't part of the research. “If we can state with confidence that the drought is caused by climate change then that is the fingerprint.”
If the world warms another 1.3 degrees Celsius from now, the study said people should expect the type of weather conditions that led to these fires to happen another 35% more often.
Otto said this is not an issue of politics, but science.
“It's not something where you can say that this was because California did something very wrong. They did a lot of things right. They did some things that they could do better,” Otto said. “But what makes these ever more dangerous, these fires, and what is something that the government of California alone can definitely not do anything about is human-induced climate change. And drill, baby drill will make this much, much worse.”
Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment
Follow Seth Borenstein on X at @borenbears
The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.
FILE - Smoke from a wildfire is seen from the Venice Beach section of Los Angeles, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)
FILE - The Eaton Fire destroys a structure, Jan. 7, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope, File)
FILE - A firefighter monitors flames caused by the Hughes Fire along Castaic Lake in Castaic, Calif., Jan. 22, 2025. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)
FILE - Trees sway in high winds as the Eaton Fire burns structures Jan. 8, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope, File)
FILE - Fire crews monitor the Palisades Fire in Mandeville Canyon, Jan. 11, 2025, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump on Monday signed an executive order directing the U.S. to take steps to start developing a government-owned investment fund that he said could be used to profit off of TikTok if he's successful at finding it an American buyer.
Trump signed an order on his first day office to grant TikTok until early April to find an approved partner or buyer, but he's said he's looking for the U.S. to take a 50% stake in the massive social media platform. He said Monday in the Oval Office that TikTok, which is owned by China-based ByteDance, was an example of what he could put in a new U.S. sovereign wealth fund.
“We might put that in the sovereign wealth fund, whatever we make or we do a partnership with very wealthy people, a lot of options,” he said of TikTok. “But we could put that as an example in the fund. We have a lot of other things that we could put in the fund.”
Sovereign wealth funds invest in assets, such as stocks, bonds and real estate. They are typically funded by a country’s budgetary surpluses, which the U.S. currently does not have.
Trump noted many other nations have such investment funds and predicted that the U.S. could eventually top Saudi Arabia's fund size. “Eventually we'll catch it," he promised.
There are over 90 sovereign wealth funds around the world that mange over $8 trillion in assets, according to The International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds, a London-based organization made up of roughly 50 of these entities.
In the U.S., more than 20 sovereign wealth funds exist at the state level, according to analysis from the Center for Global Development, a Washington-based nonpartisan think-tank. The largest ones — based in Alaska, New Mexico and Texas — are financed through revenue that comes from oil, gas and mineral proceeds and used to fund in-state programs, such as education. Though these funds are owned by governments, they tend to operate as standalone institutions with their own investment strategies and staff, the center said.
The president put Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick, Trump's pick for Commerce Secretary, in charge of laying the groundwork for creating a the fund, which would likely require congressional approval.
Former President Joe Biden's administration had studied the possibility of creating a sovereign wealth fund for national security investments, but the idea did not yield any concrete action before he left office last month.
Bessent said the administration's goal was to have the fund open within the next 12 months, and Lutnick said another use of the fund could have been for the government to take an profit-earning stake in vaccine manufacturers.
“The extraordinary size and scale of the U.S government and the business it does with companies should create value for American citizens,” Lutnick told reporters.
TikTok was supposed to be banned in the U.S. last month under a federal law that forces ByteDance to divest its stakes or face a ban. The law was passed in April with bipartisan support in Congress and signed Biden. The two companies and some users quickly took legal action against the statute, which was ultimately upheld by the Supreme Court last month.
After taking office, Trump, who had attempted to ban the popular app during his first term, directed the Justice Department to pause enforcement of the law for 75 days. The reprieve has given the company more time to work out a deal with the administration.
Several other investors — including billionaire Frank McCourt and Trump’s former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin — have spoken publicly about their desire to purchase TikTok’s U.S. platform. Trump has said “many people” had also reached out to him privately about it. Last week, he said Microsoft was one of the U.S. companies eyeing the social media platform.
A San Francisco-based artificial intelligence startup called Perplexity AI presented a proposal to ByteDance last month that would allow the U.S. government to own up to 50% of an entity that combines TikTok's U.S. platform with Perplexity's business, a person familiar with the matter previously told the Associated Press. If successful, the proposal would allow the U.S. government to have a sizable stake in that entity once it makes an initial public offering of at least $300 billion.
President Donald Trump speaks as Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick listens in the Oval Office of the White House, Monday, Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, as Trump prepares to sign an executive order. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Steve Witkoff, special envoy for the Middle East, watches as President Donald Trump signs executive orders in the Oval Office of the White House, Monday, Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
White House chief of staff Susie Wiles is pictured in the Oval Office of the White House as President Donald Trump signs executive orders, Monday, Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
President Donald Trump speaks as Steve Witkoff, special envoy for the Middle East, from left, White House staff secretary Will Scharf, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick listen as Trump signs executive orders in the Oval Office of the White House, Monday, Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
President Donald Trump signs an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House, Monday, Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
President Donald Trump speaks after signing an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House, Monday, Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)