5 years after Britain left the EU, the full impact of Brexit is still emerging

LONDON (AP) — Five years ago Friday, two crowds of people gathered near Britain’s Parliament — some with Union Jacks and cheers, others European Union flags and tears.

On Jan. 31, 2020 at 11 p.m. London time – midnight at EU headquarters in Brussels — the U.K. officially left the bloc after almost five decades of membership that had brought free movement and free trade between Britain and 27 other European countries.

For Brexit supporters, the U.K. was now a sovereign nation in charge of its own destiny. For opponents, it was an isolated and diminished country.

It was, inarguably, a divided nation that had taken a leap into the dark. Five years on, people and businesses are still wrestling with the economic, social and cultural aftershocks.

“The impact has been really quite profound,” said political scientist Anand Menon, who heads the think-tank U.K. in a Changing Europe. “It’s changed our economy.

“And our politics has been changed quite fundamentally as well,” he added. “We’ve seen a new division around Brexit becoming part of electoral politics.”

An island nation with a robust sense of its historical importance, Britain had long been an uneasy member of the EU when it held a referendum in June 2016 on whether to remain or leave. Decades of deindustrialization, followed by years of public spending cuts and high immigration, made fertile ground for the argument that Brexit would let the U.K. “take back control” of its borders, laws and economy.

Yet the result — 52% to 48% in favor of leaving — came as a shock to many. Neither the Conservative government, which campaigned to stay in the EU, nor pro-Brexit campaigners had planned for the messy details of the split.

The referendum was followed by years of wrangling over divorce terms between a wounded EU and a fractious U.K. that caused gridlock in Parliament and ultimately defeated Prime Minister Theresa May. She resigned in 2019 and was replaced by Boris Johnson, who vowed to “get Brexit done.”

It wasn’t so simple.

The U.K. left without agreement on its future economic relationship with the EU, which accounted for half the country’s trade. The political departure was followed by 11 months of testy negotiations on divorce terms, culminating in agreement on Christmas Eve in 2020.

The bare-bones trade deal saw the U.K. leave the bloc’s single market and customs union. It meant goods could move without tariffs or quotas, but brought new red tape, costs and delays for trading businesses.

“It has cost us money. We are definitely slower and it’s more expensive. But we’ve survived,” said Lars Andersen, whose London-based company, My Nametags, ships brightly colored labels for kids’ clothes and school supplies to more than 150 countries.

To keep trading with the EU, Andersen has had to set up a base in Ireland, through which all orders destined for EU countries must pass before being sent on. He says the hassle has been worth it, but some other small businesses he knows have stopped trading with the EU or moved manufacturing out of the U.K.

Julianne Ponan, founder and CEO of allergen-free food producer Creative Nature, had a growing export business to EU countries that was devastated by Brexit. Since then she has successfully turned to markets in the Middle East and Australia, something she says has been a positive outcome of leaving the EU.

Having mastered the new red tape, she is now gradually building up business with Europe again.

“But we’ve lost four years of growth there,” she said. “And that’s the sad part. We would be a lot further ahead in our journey if Brexit hadn’t happened.”

The government’s Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that U.K. exports and imports will both be around 15% lower in the long run than if the U.K. had remained in the EU, and economic productivity 4% less than it otherwise would have been.

Brexit supporters argue that short-term pain will be offset by Britain’s new freedom to strike trade deals around the world. Since Brexit. the U.K. has signed trade agreements with countries including Australia, New Zealand and Canada.

But David Henig, a trade expert at the European Center for International Political Economy, said they have not offset the hit to trade with Britain’s nearest neighbors.

“The big players aren’t so much affected,” Henig said. “We still have Airbus, we still have Scotch whisky. We still do defense, big pharmaceuticals. But the mid-size players are really struggling to keep their exporting position. And nobody new is coming in to set up.”

In some ways, Brexit has not played out as either supporters or opponents anticipated. The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine piled on more economic disruption, and made it harder to discern the impact of Britain’s EU exit on the economy.

In one key area, immigration, Brexit’s impact has been the opposite of what many predicted. A desire to reduce immigration was a major reason many people voted to leave the EU, yet immigration today is far higher than before Brexit because the number of visas granted for workers from around the world has soared.

Meanwhile, the rise of protectionist political leaders, especially newly returned U.S. President Donald Trump, has raised the stakes for Britain, now caught between its near neighbors in Europe and its trans-Atlantic “special relationship” with the U.S.

“The world is a far less forgiving place now than it was in 2016 when we voted to leave,” Menon said.

Polls suggest U.K. public opinion has soured on Brexit, with a majority of people now thinking it was a mistake. But rejoining seems a distant prospect. With memories of arguments and division still raw, few people want to go through all that again.

Labour Party Prime Minister Keir Starmer, elected in July 2024, has promised to “reset” relations with the EU, but has ruled out rejoining the customs union or single market. He’s aiming for relatively modest changes such as a making it easier for artists to tour and for professionals to have their qualifications recognized, as well as on closer cooperation on law enforcement and security.

EU leaders have welcomed the change of tone from Britain, but have problems of their own amid growing populism across the continent. The U.K. is no longer a top priority.

“I completely understand, it’s difficult to get back together after quite a harsh divorce,” said Andersen, who nonetheless hopes Britain and the EU will draw closer with time. “I suspect it will happen, but it will happen slowly and subtly without politicians particularly shouting about it.”

FILE - The Union flag is lowered and removed from outside of the European Parliament in Brussels Friday, Jan. 31, 2020. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco, File)

FILE - A projection appears on a cliff in Ramsgate, southern England, Friday, Jan. 31, 2020. (AP Photo/Matt Dunham, File)

FILE - A Brexit supporter demonstrates in Parliament Square in London, Friday, Jan. 31, 2020. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant, File)

FILE - People draped in UK flags walks across Parliament Square during rainfall in London on Jan. 31, 2020. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth, File)

FILE - A countdown to Brexit timer and the colors of the British Union flag illuminate the exterior of 10 Downing street, the residence of the British Prime Minister, in London, England, Friday, Jan. 31, 2020. AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth, File)

FILE - Brexit supporters celebrate during a rally in London, Friday, Jan. 31, 2020. Britain leaves the European Union after 47 years, leaping into an unknown future in historic blow to the bloc. (AP Photo/Frank Augstein, File)

FILE - Brexit supporters gather during a rally in London, Friday, Jan. 31, 2020. Britain officially leaves the European Union on Friday after a debilitating political period that has bitterly divided the nation since the 2016 Brexit referendum. (AP Photo/Frank Augstein, File)

FILE - In this Friday, June 24, 2016 file photo Nigel Farage, the leader of the UK Independence Party, celebrates and poses for photographers as he leaves a "Leave.EU" organisation party for the British European Union membership referendum in London. (AP Photo/Matt Dunham, File)

FILE - Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson returns to 10 Downing Street after meeting with Queen Elizabeth II at Buckingham Palace, London, on Friday, Dec. 13, 2019. (AP Photo/Matt Dunham, File)

Lars Andersen founder of 'My Nametags' speaks during an interview at his factory in London, Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant)

A sign for UK Envelopes only waits for packets of envelops containing labels at 'My Nametags' factory in London, Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant)

Lars Andersen founder of 'My Nametags' holds up school children labels with the necessary bar codes at his factory in London, Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant)

Labels for school children come of the cutting machine at 'My Nametags' factory in London, Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant)

Labels for school children come of the printing machine at 'My Nametags' factory in London, Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant)

Baskets showing country codes and label designations await packet of school children's labels at 'My Nametags' factory in London, Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant)

A selection labels for school children and the bar codes needed are seen at 'My Nametags' factory in London, Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant)

Labels for school children come of the cutting machine at 'My Nametags' factory in London, Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant)

Lars Andersen founder of 'My Nametags' speaks during an interview at his factory in London, Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant)

Lars Andersen founder of 'My Nametags' speaks during an interview at his factory in London, Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant)

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — The Chinese military announced large-scale drills in the waters around Taiwan on Tuesday as it again warned the self-ruled island against seeking independence.

The joint exercises involve navy, air ground and rocket forces and are meant to be a “severe warning and forceful containment against Taiwan independence,” according to Shi Yi, a spokesperson for the People's Liberation Army's Eastern Theater Command.

China considers Taiwan a part of its territory, to be brought under its control by force if necessary, while most Taiwanese favor their de facto independence and democratic status.

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence said it had tracked 19 Chinese navy vessels in the waters surrounding the island in a 24-hour period from 6 a.m. Monday until 6 a.m. Tuesday.

It added that it had been tracking the movement of the Shandong aircraft carrier since Saturday and that the carrier group had entered into Taiwan's identification zone, a self-defined area tracked by the military.

“I want to say these actions amply reflect its destruction of regional peace and stability,” said Taiwan's Defense Minister Wellington Koo.

Taiwan has set up a central response group to monitor the latest exercises, Koo said.

China's Coast Guard also announced it was conducting a “law enforcement patrol” on Tuesday around Taiwan, its spokesperson Zhu Anqin said.

The drills come just two weeks after a large-scale exercise in mid-March, when Beijing sent a large number of drones and ships toward the island.

China's Taiwan Affairs Office said the exercises were directed at Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's president.

“Lai Ching-te stubbornly insists on a ‘Taiwan independence’ stance, brazenly labeling the mainland as a ‘foreign hostile force,’ and has put forward a so-called “17-point strategy ... stirring up anti-China sentiments,” said China’s Taiwan Affairs Office in a statement on Tuesday. “We will not tolerate or condone this in any way and must resolutely counter and severely punish these actions.”

In mid-March, Taiwan’s Lai put forward a 17-point strategy aimed at shoring up Taiwan’s national security. The points include allowing espionage cases to be tried by military courts and making immigration rules stricter for Chinese citizens applying for permanent residency.

China’s PLA also released a series of videos to publicize their military exercise, including one in which they depict Lai as a green parasite “poisoning” the island by hatching smaller parasites. The video shows Lai’s head on the body of a bulbous green worm, with a pair of chopsticks picking him up and roasting him over a flame set over Taiwan.

Beijing sends warplanes and navy vessels toward the island on a daily basis, seeking to wear down Taiwanese defenses and morale, although the vast majority of the island’s 23 million people reject its claim of sovereignty over Taiwan. In recent years, it has stepped up the scope and scale of these exercises, from sending just fighter planes to sending groups of planes, drones and ships.

Most Taiwanese want to maintain the status quo, in which Taiwan is self-ruled.

“The PLA organized naval and air forces to practice subjects such as sea and land strikes, focusing on testing the troops’ ability to carry out precision strikes on some key targets of the Taiwan authorities from multiple directions,” said Zhang Chi, a professor at China's National Defense University in a CCTV interview.

Faced with the rising threat from China, Taiwan has ordered new missiles, aircraft and other armaments from the U.S., while revitalizing its own defense industry.

Taiwan and China split amid civil war 76 years ago, but tensions have risen in recent years as communication between the two governments has stopped.

Wu reported from Bangkok.

This image released by the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense shows China’s Shandong aircraft carrier sailing near Taiwan on Monday, March 31, 2025. (Taiwan Ministry of National Defense via AP)

This photograph released by Taiwan Ministry of National Defense taken from a Taiwan Air Force P-3C Orion anti-submarine aircraft, shows a Chinese Cloud Shadow WZ-10 drone near Taiwan, Monday, March 17, 2025. (Taiwan Ministry of National Defense via AP)