Trump kept his promise to order a ban on transgender female athletes. Court fights have arrived

Donald Trump, the candidate, pledged to get “transgender insanity the hell out of our schools" and "keep men out of women’s sports."

Donald Trump, the president, wasted little time delivering on his promise to address a topic that seemed to resonate across party lines. Trump issued an executive order on the day his second term began that called for “restoring biological truth to the federal government" and signed another on Wednesday titled “ Keeping Men Out of Women's Sports. "

The federal government now has wide latitude across multiple agencies to penalize federally funded entities that “deprive women and girls of fair athletic opportunities.”

"The war on women’s sports is over,” Trump declared.

Probably not. Legal challenges like the ones against other executive orders aimed at transgender people are likely and on Wednesday, the Trump administration sued Maine for not complying with the government’s push to ban transgender athletes in girls and women’s sports.

The biggest takeaway is that the Trump administration has empowered the federal government to take aggressive steps to go after entities — be they a school or an athletic association and now a state — that do not comply. Federal funding, and potentially grants to educational programs, could be pulled.

The threshold for noncompliance: Any entity that denies “female students an equal opportunity to participate in sports and athletic events by requiring them, in the women’s category, to compete with or against or to appear unclothed before males.”

The Education Department announced less than 24 hours after the order's signing that it was investigating San Jose State University, the University of Pennsylvania and the Massachusetts Interscholastic Athletic Association, all of which have had Title IX violations reported against them for allowing transgender athletes to compete. It also investigated Maine and last week referred the case to the Justice Department.

Every administration has the authority to issue its own interpretations of the landmark legislation best known for its role in ensuring gender equity in athletics and preventing sexual harassment on campuses.

Given the push-pull of how recent presidencies view Title IX, it has created a whiplash effect.

Joe Biden signed an executive order on his first day in office that interpreted sex as “gender identity" under Title IX, a move that protected transgender athletes from being discriminated against if they wanted to participate in a sport that aligned with their gender identity, not their sex assigned at birth.

Yet it took more than three years for Title IX regulations saying that to be finalized. And when they were, they lacked specifics sports and were put on hold by courts.

Trump's order explicitly states that sex means the “immutable biological classification as either male or female.” ‘Sex’ is not a synonym for and does not include the concept of “gender identity.” The order adds that “sexes are not changeable and are grounded in fundamental and incontrovertible reality.”

The decision marks a significant shift in the way Title IX is viewed and more explicitly, how it will be enforced.

That number is hard to pin down.

The NCAA, for example, does not track data on transgender athletes among the 544,000 currently competing on 19,000 teams at various levels across the country, though NCAA President Charlie Baker testified in Congress in December that he was aware of fewer than 10 active NCAA athletes who identified as transgender.

A 2019 survey of high school students by the Gay, Lesbian and Straight Education Network (GLSEN) noted just 5% of respondents said they participated in a sport that aligned with their gender identity. A 2022 report by the Williams Institute estimated about 300,000 high school-age students (ages 13-17) identified as transgender. How many of those young people participate in sports is unknown, but it is likely a tiny fraction.

The reach of Title IX extends far beyond the participation of transgender athletes. Noncompliance is believed to be widespread.

The Women's Sports Foundation noted in a 2022 report that there were still “gross gender inequities” across all college divisions and that there was “cause for concern about widespread Title IX noncompliance in high school and college and university athletic programs” even before the COVID-19 pandemic made women's sports even more vulnerable.

Yet to date no school at any level has had its federal funding rescinded for not meeting Title IX standards that require institutions to provide women with equal access and treatment, said Cheryl Cooky, a professor at Purdue University who studies the intersection of gender, sports, media and culture. She wondered where all this support for women's sports in general — and not on this issue specifically — has been for the last five decades.

“All of these other inequalities have existed and now you’re in a position of power to address those opportunities and this is what you're addressing?” Cooky said earlier this year. “The fact that this is the issue that the administration is concerned about speaks volumes in terms of how we value women in this society and how we value women’s sports in this society.”

Yet given Trump's unpredictable approach to governing, precedent and history might not apply.

About half the states have already enacted legislation that effectively bars transgender athletes from competing in the category that aligns with their gender identity. The AP reported in 2021 that in many cases, states introducing a ban on transgender athletes could not cite instances where their participation was an issue.

Some states are already planning to challenge the Trump order in court. Connecticut Attorney General William Tong called the order “mean spirited and unlawful” and called for those opposed to the order to “stand together and fight back.”

What also remains unclear is whether a federal agency can go after specific organizations — like state high school sports associations — that do not receive money directly from the federal government.

The NCAA Board of Governors moved quickly, amending its transgender participation policy to limit competition in women's sports to athletes assigned female at birth. The NCAA has more than 500,000 athletes competing for some 1,100 schools.

“We strongly believe that clear, consistent, and uniform eligibility standards would best serve today’s student-athletes instead of a patchwork of conflicting state laws and court decisions,” Baker said then. "To that end, President Trump’s order provides a clear, national standard.”

The National Association of Intercollegiate Athletics, the governing body for more than 200 small schools across the country, voted unanimously in 2023 to effectively ban transgender athletes from competing in women's sports.

On a move most saw coming once Trump won a second term, his administration still managed to sneak in a curveball.

The order calls for the office of the secretary of state to use “all appropriate and available measures” in hopes of having the International Olympic Committee come up with a uniform transgender policy. The organization has passed the buck for years, deferring to the international federations for each sport.

Kirsty Coventry, the sports minister of Zimbabwe, has replaced Thomas Bach as IOC president. A two-time Olympic champion swimmer, she told the BBC before her election that it is the IOC’s duty to ensure equal opportunity and fairness.

“I don’t believe we can do that based off of the medical and science research that I’ve seen if we add or allow for transgender women to compete in the female category right now,” she said then. “It is very clear that transgender women are more able in the female category, and can take away opportunities that should be equal for women.”

AP Sports Writer Graham Dunbar and Associated Press writer Geoff Mulvihill contributed to this report.

Greely High School, which was thrust into national spotlight after a state legislator posted about a transgender student-athlete, is seen Tuesday, April 8, 2025, in Cumberland, Maine.(AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)

Attorney General Pam Bondi accompanied by from left Riley Gaines Rep. Laurel Libby R-Maine, and Education Secretary Linda McMahon speaks during a news conference to announce that the administration it is suing Maine’s education department for not complying with the government's push to ban transgender athletes in girls sports, at the Department of Justice headquarters in Washington, Wednesday, April 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

Attorney General Pam Bondi speaks during a news conference at the Department of Justice headquarters in Washington, Wednesday, April 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

President Donald Trump holds a football during the Commander-in-Chief trophy presentation to the Navy Midshipman football team in the East Room of the White House, Tuesday, April 15, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

TALLINN, Estonia (AP) — The discussions have taken place in an ornate Kremlin hall, on the polished marble of St. Peter’s Basilica and in a famously contentious session in the Oval Office of the White House.

What’s emerged so far from the Washington-led effort to end the war in Ukraine suggests a deal that seems likely to be favorable to Russia: President Donald Trump has sharply rebuked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, echoed Kremlin talking points, and indicated Kyiv would have to surrender territory and forego NATO membership. What’s more, he has engaged in a rapprochement with Moscow that was unthinkable months ago.

More recently, Trump has offered mixed signals — social media posts that perhaps Russian President Vladimir Putin is stringing him along — and a deal has yet to materialize.

While the optics so far have been in the Kremlin’s favor, no proposals that were put forth have been cemented.

And on Wednesday, Washington and Kyiv signed an agreement granting American access to Ukraine’s vast mineral resources that could enable continued military aid to the country under ongoing attacks from Russia.

Zelenskyy said Thursday the deal was the first result of his “truly historic” meeting with Trump at the Vatican before the funeral of Pope Francis.

One gain for the Kremlin is that Washington is talking again to Moscow after years of extremely strained ties following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine — and not just about the war, said Nikolay Petrov, senior research fellow with the New Eurasian Strategies Centre think tank.

Russian officials and state media from the very start of discussions with Trump’s officials sought to underscore that Ukraine was only one item on the vast agenda of the “two superpowers.” Trump and Putin talked in March about Ukraine but also the Middle East, stopping the proliferation of strategic weapons and even organizing hockey games between the countries.

Russia's main state TV channel reported that the meeting between Putin and Trump envoy Steve-Witkoff showed that Moscow and Washington were building “a new structure of the world” together.

In this sense, “Putin already got a part of what he sought” — the optics of Russia as a country that is on par with the U.S., Petrov said.

Trump has said Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula Moscow illegally annexed in 2014, “will stay with Russia,” and outlines of a peace proposal his team reportedly presented to Kyiv last month apparently included allowing Russia to keep control of other occupied Ukrainian territories. Trump, who had a contentious meeting with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office on Feb. 28, lashed out at him for publicly rejecting the idea of ceding land, and also said that Kyiv was unlikely to ever join NATO.

All of these reflect Moscow’s long-held positions, and Trump’s echoing of them suggested his administration’s vision was aligned with the Kremlin’s.

Trump also seemingly puts more pressure on Kyiv than Moscow in trying to reach a peace deal and appears eager to return to a more normal relationship with Russia and its “big business opportunities," said Sam Greene of King’s College London.

“Is there any part of this that doesn’t look like a win for Russia? No,” Greene adds.

But so far, all of this has remained nothing but rhetoric, with terms of a possible settlement still very much “in the air,” says Sergey Radchenko, a historian and a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

Moreover, there are still demands by both Russia and Ukraine that would be hard to reconcile in any kind of peace settlement.

Ukraine refuses to cede any land and wants robust security guarantees against future aggression, possibly involving a contingent of peacekeepers -– something a handful of European nations have been discussing and Russia publicly rejects as a nonstarter.

Russia, in turn, demands that it holds onto the territory it has seized as well as no NATO membership for Ukraine. It also wants Kyiv to “demilitarize,” or significantly reduce its armed force.

Radchenko sees the latter as a major sticking point in peace talks, because a strong, viable army is important for Ukraine to defend itself.

“If there are restrictions on the kinds of weapons Ukraine can receive (from the West) or the size of the army, then it will be very difficult to get them to accept this sort of agreement,” he said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov seemingly raised the stakes further this week by saying that international recognition of regions annexed from Ukraine by Russia was “imperative” for a peace deal.

Achieving that remains unclear, given that dozens of countries have decried the annexations as violating international law.

Some analysts believe it is in Putin's interest to prolong the war and keep making gains on the battlefield.

Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have threatened to wash their hands of the peace effort if there is no progress soon.

Putin, in an apparent gesture of willingness to keep talking, announced this week a 72-hour ceasefire starting May 8 for Russia's Victory Day holiday that marks the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.

Zelenskyy dismissed the gesture as a further attempt by Putin at “manipulation” to string along the U.S., saying a ceasefire should begin immediately and last longer.

Greene noted that the Russian ruble and markets have been doing better recently over expectations of a peace deal and U.S. businesses and investors coming back, "and there may be a price to be paid” for pulling out the rug from under that.

The larger question is what happens on the battlefield if the Trump administration withdraws from the peace effort.

“When the Trump administration says they’ll walk away, we don’t know what that means. Does that mean they walk away from negotiations and keep supporting Ukraine?” Greene said.

Greene says that Ukraine probably doesn’t feel confident that the U.S. stepping back from the process means that Washington will keep supporting Kyiv, adding that Russia may not be sure of the Trump administration ending aid, either.

“I think it’s very difficult for the Kremlin to calculate the risks of dragging this out,” he said.

And U.S. Treasury Secretary Sctott Bessent said the mineral deal "signals clearly to Russia that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term.”

A lot depends on whether Europe can step up and fill any gaps in U.S. aid.

If Trump walks away from the peace effort and still pursues normalizing relations with Russia, lifting sanctions, “this will amount to a major breakthrough” for Putin, but it's not a given, Radchenko says.

That would be an uphill battle for Trump as “there’s a lot of congressional sanctions that are predicated on the war in Ukraine,” Greene notes.

FILE - In this photo provided by Ukraine's 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade press service, a soldier looks out of a shelter on the anti-drone firing position in Kostyantynivka, the site of the heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, April 24, 2025. (Iryna Rybakova/Ukraine's 93rd Mechanized Brigade via AP, File)

FILE - Russian soldiers guard a pier where two Ukrainian naval vessels are moored, in Sevastopol, on the Crimean Peninsula, March 5, 2014. (AP Photo, File)

FILE - Vice President JD Vance, right, speaks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, left, as President Donald Trump listens, in the Oval Office at the White House, Feb. 28, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/ Mystyslav Chernov, File)

FILE - In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, right, and President Donald Trump, talk as they attend the funeral of Pope Francis in St. Peter’s Basilica in Vatican City, April 26, 2025.(Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP, File)

FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff greet each other prior to their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, April 25, 2025. (Kristina Kormilitsyna, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

FILE - In this combination of file photos, President Donald Trump, left, and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, center, are seen at the Elysee Palace, Dec. 7, 2024 in Paris, and President Vladimir Putin, right, addresses a Technology Forum in Moscow, Feb. 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Aurelien Morissard, left and center, Pavel Bednyakov, right, File)