Brazil drought punishes coffee farms and threatens to push prices even higher

CACONDE, Brazil (AP) — Silvio Almeida’s coffee plantation sits at an ideal altitude on a Brazilian hillside, whose clay-rich soil does well at retaining moisture from rainfall and a nearby reservoir.

Lately, though, water is scarce on Almeida's modest farm in Caconde, a town in one of Sao Paulo state’s key growing regions. He can’t get his coffee to grow the way it should.

In Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, Almeida and other farmers have started grappling with the nation's worst drought in more than seven decades and above-average temperatures. Almeida expected to harvest 120 sacks of coffee beans this harvest season, but instead managed just 100.

“Given the conditions here, the 2025 crop is already affected," he told The Associated Press, pointing to a part of his plantation where flower buds died before blooming. "I won’t say it’s doomed, because with God anything is possible. But based on the situation, it’s already compromised."

Brazil's harvest season that ends this month was virtually flat from last year, and exports surged, but the ongoing drought is already complicating the start of the 2025/2026 season, according to a report Monday by the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics at the University of Sao Paulo’s agribusiness school.

At the same time, Vietnam, the world’s second-biggest coffee producer, is experiencing heat and drought, affecting its crops. Potential supply shortages in both countries have started driving up global coffee prices, according to the report.

The market is closely monitoring how Brazilian coffee plants endure these adverse climate conditions, which can cause flowers to stop blooming, fail to turn into cherries or produce lower-quality beans, said Felippe Serigati, who coordinates the master’s program in agribusiness at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, a university in Sao Paulo.

“It could result in a smaller coffee harvest," Serigati said. "Since the market tends to anticipate these movements, we’ve already seen the price of arabica coffee in New York and robusta (coffee) in Europe trading at higher levels.”

Coffee prices haven’t reached the record highs the world saw in the late 1970s, after a severe frost wiped out 70% of Brazil’s coffee plants. But they have been soaring in recent years.

In August, the International Coffee Organization’s Composite Indicator Price – which combines the price of several types of green coffee beans – averaged $2.38 per pound, up nearly 55% from the same month a year ago.

In part, prices are rising because of higher demand, particularly in Asia. But weather is also driving increases. Drought, frost and fire have damaged as much as one-fifth of arabica coffee producers’ growing areas in Brazil, said Billy Roberts, a senior economist for food and beverage at Colorado-based CoBank.

“It’s not looking like it will get that much better in the near term. They will need consistent rainfall to recover,” he said.

Uncontrolled, manmade wildfires across Brazil have lately been ravaging protected areas and farms. One of them ripped through Caconde last week.

Almeida, who is also a math teacher at a local public school, helped calculate the damage for a regional association. So far, he estimates the blazes affected 519 hectares (1,282 acres). Half was native Atlantic Forest, 30% pasture and 15% coffee plantations.

On Almeida's own land, 2,000 of his 15,000 plants were torched. His neighbor, João Rodrigues Martins, lost everything.

Martins, 71, had 2,500 coffee plants on a small plot, now completely blackened by soot. The coffee he sells to a local cooperative is his livelihood and also pays for his son’s medical treatment.

For smallholders, seeing years of cultivation reduced to ash is tough to reckon with. Last week, Martins ran through fire to save his bee boxes. Today, he is finding the strength to continue forward.

“Faith is a boat that helps us navigate life,” he said.

Durbin reported from Detroit.

An aerial view of a coffee plantation consumed by wildfires in a rural area of Caconde, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)

Coffee producer Joao Rodrigues Martins inspects his plantation consumed by wildfires in a rural area of Caconde, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)

An aerial view of a coffee plantation consumed by wildfires in a rural area of Caconde, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)

An aerial view of a coffee plantation consumed by wildfires in a rural area of Caconde, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)

Coffee producer Joao Rodrigues Martins holds a handful of damaged coffee beans during an inspection of his plantation consumed by wildfires in a rural area of Caconde, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)

A tree stands near a coffee plantation consumed by wildfires in a rural area of Caconde, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)

Coffee producer Joao Rodrigues Martins inspects his plantation consumed by wildfires in a rural area of Caconde, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)

Coffee producer Joao Rodrigues Martins holds a handful of damaged coffee beans during an inspection of his plantation consumed by wildfires in a rural area of Caconde, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)

Coffee producer Joao Rodrigues Martins inspects his plantation consumed by wildfires in a rural area of Caconde, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)

Coffee producer Silvio Elias de Almeida tosses a handful of damaged coffee beans during an inspection of his plantation consumed by wildfires in a rural area of Caconde, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)

CLEVELAND (AP) — Soaked to the skin from being sprayed with Champagne and beer, manager Stephen Vogt stood in the middle of the clubhouse and triumphantly lifted a fake jeweled championship belt over his head like a conquering boxer.

Cleveland will fight for a real one in October.

Led by their 39-year-old rookie manager, who has pushed all the right buttons for months, and a superb bullpen, the Guardians clinched one of the AL’s six playoff spots on Thursday with a 3-2 win over the Minnesota Twins — Cleveland's major league-leading 42nd comeback.

A most unexpected season will include a postseason.

One of baseball's youngest teams can end decades of playoff heartbreak for a franchise enduring baseball's longest active World Series title drought.

“This is really special,” said Vogt, a former All-Star catcher who had zero managing experience when the Guardians hired him in November. “The goal is to get in and then from here we keep pushing. You get in, you have a chance.”

The Guardians are the second AL team to qualify for the 2024 postseason, following only the New York Yankees, who clinched a spot on Wednesday and will return to the playoffs after a one-year absence — an eternity for their spoiled fan base.

New York was slated to contend. Cleveland, not so much.

But in their first season under Vogt, who was on his farm in Washington shoveling cow manure when the team's front office called to offer him the job, the Guardians have been one of baseball's best stories and biggest surprises.

They weren't expected to do much coming off a 76-win season, which ended with beloved manager Terry Francona's retirement. The feeling heading into this year was the road back to title contention could be a long one.

But the Guardians have been atop the no-longer-laughable AL Central since mid-April, and in a season in which there doesn't appear to be any clear-cut powerhouse favorite, they'll enter the playoffs with a shot to win their first title since 1948 — when they were known as the Indians.

Vogt wasn't really sure what kind of team he had during spring training in Arizona. But a 7-2 trip through Oakland, Seattle and Minnesota to open the season convinced him his young group could mature into something more.

“I didn’t know what guys were capable of what,” he said. "And until you see them play, you really don’t know. But if you come to spring training and you’re not expecting to win the World Series, don’t come.

“Right away on that first road trip, we saw something special that this team might be able to get it done. Now we’re in it. We have an opportunity.”

Lacking big names and big bats in the lineup, Cleveland has found success by playing with an aggressive attitude. It's known as “Guards ball,” and it places a premium on patient at-bats, knocking the opponent's starter out as early as possible, taking the extra base and playing solid defense.

Everyone contributes, and Vogt has taken pride in using his entire roster.

It doesn't hurt that he's been able to lean on baseball's nastiest bullpen, anchored by All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase, who hasn't blown a save since May and is making a case to become the league's first reliever to win the Cy Young Award in 32 years.

The Guardians don't quit.

Down two runs in the 10th on Wednesday night, they stormed back with three to shock the Twins. And after the bullpen held Minnesota hitless for 5 2/3 innings Thursday, they walked off their rivals again to improve to 48-28 at home.

“That's us,” said Andrés Giménez, who drove in José Ramírez from second base in the 10th. "That's the Cleveland Guardians.”

A comeback earlier this week left Vogt in tears during his postgame news conference.

“I love these guys,” he said.

The feeling is mutual.

Backup catcher and de facto team spokesman Austin Hedges, who won a World Series title with Texas last year, re-signed as a free agent with Cleveland before this season. He credits Vogt with bringing the Guardians closer and getting the most from them.

“One of the most special humans I’ve ever met,” Hedges said. "Not just as a manager, as a man. That guy, he's a leader of men. We had one of the greatest managers in the history of baseball for a long time, and I loved Terry Francona with all my heart.

“This is probably the best year of managing I’ve ever seen in my life.”

Vogt will enter uncharted waters in a few weeks, leading the Guardians into the month when every pitch, every swing, every moment is amplified.

Hedges has been there before. Before winning it all with the Rangers, he was released by the Guardians following the 2022 season, which ended with them blowing a 2-1 lead in the Division Series against the Yankees.

He came back to Cleveland for another crack.

“I feel like we had unfinished business in '22,” he said. "We feel like we really had a really good shot to go all the way. It’s tough to lose a heartbreaker in the postseason and being away last year, all I could think about was coming back with my guys here.

“We all want the exact same thing.”

AP MLB: https://apnews.com/hub/mlb

Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt celebrates after the team's 10-inning win over the Minnesota Twins in a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Nick Cammett)

Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt celebrates the team's 3-2, 10-inning win over the Minnesota Twins which earned the team a berth in baseball's playoff, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Nick Cammett)

Cleveland Guardians' Austin Hedges celebrates in the clubhouse after they defeated the Minnesota Twins to clinch a baseball playoff berth, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Nick Cammett)

Cleveland Guardians' José Ramírez scores on a walk off RBI single hit by Andrés Giménez to defeat the Minnesota Twins 3-2 in 10 innings in a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Nick Cammett)

The Cleveland Guardians celebrate after their 10-inning win over the Minnesota Twins in a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Nick Cammett)

The Cleveland Guardians celebrate after their 10-inning win over the Minnesota Twins in a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Nick Cammett)

The Cleveland Guardians, including Austin Hedges, center, celebrate after their 10-inning win over the Minnesota Twins in a baseball game to clinch a playoff berth Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Nick Cammett)

The Cleveland Guardians celebrate in the clubhouse after they defeated the Minnesota Twins to clinch a baseball playoff berth, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Nick Cammett)

Cleveland Guardians' Jhonkensy Noel celebrates in the clubhouse after they defeated the Minnesota Twins to clinch a baseball playoff berth, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Nick Cammett)