NEW YORK (AP) — The largest retail trade group in the United States said Tuesday that it expects consumers to spend more during the upcoming holiday shopping season but the growth in sales to be slower than last year due to concerns over persistent inflation and prices.
The National Retail Federation said its 2024 forecast indicates that shoppers will make $979.5 billion to $989 billion worth of purchases in November and December, which would represent a 2.5%-3.5% increase over the same two-month period a year ago.
However, the $955.6 billion spent during the 2023 holiday shopping season was 3.9% more than in 2022.
This year's predicted pace is consistent with the average increase of 3.6% from 2010 to 2019. During the coronavirus pandemic, Americans ramped up their spending. Holiday season sales rose 9% in 2020 from the year before, and they soared 12.4% in 2021, according to the National Retail Federation.
The trade group makes its calculations based on government figures. The numbers exclude sales at automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.
The forecast considers economic indicators such as employment, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit, previous retail sales and weather.
“Interest rates are still a little higher than they were in recent memory,” National Retail Federation CEO and President Matt Shay said during a call with reporters. "Consumers do have those interest rates and the lingering inflation on their minds. So we expect that consumers will continue to be more price-conscious and pragmatic in their spending decisions.”
The retail federation issued its look-ahead as the data shows U.S. consumers continuing to spend, powered by sturdy hiring, low unemployment and healthy household finances. Moreover, gas prices are coming down, leaving a little extra money for shoppers to spend on gifts. The national average price for a gallon of unleaded gasoline was $3.2 on Tuesday; a year ago, it was $3.60, according to auto club AAA.
But there are plenty of challenges this season, including a presidential election that could create a big distraction from shopping in November. NRF officials said it was nearly impossible to measure the election's impact on current or future spending.
With Thanksgiving falling on Nov. 28, there also will be six fewer days between the holiday and Christmas Day compared to last year. Other factors that could hurt holiday sales: the economic impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton, NRF officials said.
Walmart, the nation’s largest retailer, plans to advertise savings on Thanksgiving meal products starting Oct. 14, about two weeks earlier than last year.
NRF’s forecast was in line with the predictions of other analysts, which also point to a more restrained mood among shoppers.
Management consulting firm Bain & Co. said it anticipated November and December retail sales to rise by 3% as opposed to the 4.2% growth seen last year. AlixPartners, another consulting firm, expects sales for October through December to be up anywhere from 2% to 5%, lower than last year’s 6% increase. Consulting and research firm Customer Growth Partners predicted sales to grow 4% during the holiday period, just slightly below its figure from last year.
Meanwhile, Adobe Analytics predicts online sales will surge 8.9%, marking the highest spending pace since 2021 when it was 8.6%. A year ago, online sales were up 4.9%, compared with the previous year. Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights, noted that shoppers’ bigger interest in discounts will drive spending. Discounts should average about 30%, the same as a year ago, he said.
While the inflation rate is coming down, it’s still a big pocketbook issue for shoppers as many food items still cost considerably more than they did a few years ago.
James Zahn, editor-in-chief of industry trade publication The Toy Book, thinks shoppers are even more price-conscious than they were last year when it comes to buying toys. Toys under $20 are resonating with parents, he said.
Kohl’s executives said last week that shoppers, particularly those in lower income brackets, will feel more squeezed than a year ago.
Christie Raymond, Kohl’s chief marketing officer, said the cumulative impact of high prices on food and other essentials is eating into people's savings. As part of its holiday strategy, Kohl’s plans to be aggressive with offering discounts. As for the presidential race, Kohl’s executives said they were not sure if consumers will hold back their buying ahead of the Nov. 5 election but it’s something they are monitoring.
“We’re just trying to follow the consumer, and we know that they’re going to feel squeezed once that Thanksgiving time frame hit,” Raymond told reporters.
FILE - A shopper considers large-screen televisions on display in a Costco warehouse Oct. 3, 2024, in Timnath, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File)
FILE - A shopper passes by a Christmas tree on display in a Costco warehouse on Sept. 12, 2024, in Thornton, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File)
FILE - The Monopoly Go Board Game, from Hasbro, is displayed at the TTPM 2024 Holiday Showcase event, in New York, Sept. 17, 2024. (AP Photo/Richard Drew, File)
FILE - Reggie Rose Geschke, 2, plays with the Miraculous Paris Heroes Playset, from Playmates Toys, at the TTPM 2024 Holiday Showcase event, in New York, Sept. 17, 2024. (AP Photo/Richard Drew, File)
The path for the NFL's Washington Commanders to return to the nation’s capital is clear after an on-again, off-again saga in Congress ended early Saturday with a postmidnight reprieve.
The U.S. Senate passed a resolution to transfer the land including old RFK Stadium from the federal government to the District of Columbia. The D.C. Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Stadium Campus Revitalization Act passed by voice vote at roughly 1:15 a.m. after more than a year of lobbying and support from Rep. James Comer, R-Ky., district Mayor Muriel Bowser, Commanders controlling owner Josh Harris and NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell.
“We are extremely grateful that our elected officials have come together on a bipartisan basis to give Washington, D.C., the opportunity to decide on the future of the RFK Stadium site," Harris said. "This bill will create an equal playing field so that all potential future locations for the home of the Washington Commanders can be fairly considered and give our franchise the opportunity to provide the best experience for all of our fans.”
The RFK Stadium land provision was part of Congress’ initial short-term spending bill Tuesday before it was torpedoed by President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk, the latter of whom amplified misinformation about the site on his social media platform X. Two versions of the House's slimmed-down bill, including the one that passed Friday night to avoid a government shutdown, did not include it.
Giving the local government control of the land for the next 99 years allows for the decaying husk of the old stadium to be torn down and the site redeveloped for any number of things. One of the possibilities is a football stadium and surrounding entertainment options at the franchise's former home.
Bowser called it “a win for D.C., for our region and for America.”
“Everybody loves a good comeback story — and that’s D.C.’s story,” she said.
All that awaits is President Joe Biden's signature to become law. Comer went as far as saying that Senate passage of the bill is “a historic moment for our nation's capital.”
“If Congress failed to act today, this decaying land in Washington would continue to cost taxpayers a fortune to maintain,” he said. “Revitalizing this RFK Memorial Stadium site has been a top economic priority for the city, and I am proud to have partnered with D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser to get this bill across the finish line and to the president’s desk. This bipartisan success is a testament to the House Oversight Committee’s unwavering effort to protect taxpayers and our full commitment to ensuring a capital that is prosperous for residents and visitors for generations to come.”
Playing in Washington again is no sure thing. The Commanders are considering places in the district, Maryland and Virginia to build a stadium in the coming years.
Their lease at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland, runs through 2027. Harris called 2030 a “reasonable target” for a new stadium.
The team played at RFK Stadium 2 miles (3.22 kilometers) east of the Capitol from 1961-96 before moving to Maryland. Harris and several co-owners, including Mitch Rales and Mark Ein, grew up as Washington football fans during that era, which included the glory days of three Super Bowl championships from 1982-91.
Part of the way the provision got into the bill initially involved an agreement between the team and Maryland to tear down the current stadium in a timely fashion and redevelop the site with a project of equal economic impact, a person with knowledge of the situation told The Associated Press earlier this week on condition of anonymity because the deal was not being publicized.
After the Senate greenlit the RFK Stadium land transfer, Maryland Sens. Ben Cardin and Chris Van Hollen, both Democrats, said they continued to believe their state's partnership with the team should continue long into the future.
“After working to level the financial playing field, and receiving assurances that should the team move they will redevelop the existing site in a manner that meets the needs of the community, tonight we supported the proposed land transfer legislation,” Cardin and Van Hollen said. "We have always supported the District’s effort to control its own land, and through regional discussions and cooperation, our concerns with this proposal have been addressed.”
The team has played games in Maryland since 1997 and practices in Ashburn, Virginia, not far from Dulles International Airport.
A return to the district would be another victory for Bowser, who on Thursday celebrated the start of an $800 million downtown arena renovation that is keeping the NBA's Wizards and NHL's Capitals in town. At that news conference, she took aim at Musk for sharing incorrect information on X, formerly Twitter, about taxpayers footing the bill for a new stadium.
“It was stated that the (continuing resolution) contains $3 billion for a stadium,” Bowser said. "All wrong. There are no federal dollars related to the transfer of RFK, and in fact the legislation does not require or link at all to a stadium. We’re talking about how the District can invest in removing blight.”
Musk reshared an inaccurate post saying: “Buried in the 1,547-page omnibus bill is a provision to facilitate a $3 billion NFL stadium in Washington, D.C." with the message, “This should not be funded by your tax dollars!”
The bill specifically prohibits the use of federal funds for a stadium on the site, “including training facilities, offices, and other structures necessary to support a stadium.”
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FILE - A vehicle pushes up pikes of snow after trucks dump their loads of snow in the parking lots of RFK Stadium in Washington, Monday, Jan. 25, 2016. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)
